Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Kalukin: Perhaps the goal is for Braun to keep growing, as this mainly weakens PiS; Chwedoruk: In 2027, Tusk will nominate someone other than himself for Prime Minister

Łukasz Mężyk

-- POLITICAL PLAN FOR FRIDAY: MORAWIECKI AND SZYDŁO TOGETHER AT A MEETING, TUSK ON THE AIRPORT, PKP PIS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- WE EARN MORE, CAN AFFORD LESS - "FAKT" ON THE GOVERNMENT'S SECOND ANNIVERSARY ON THE COVER:
https://www.egazety.pl/rasp/e-wydanie-fakt.html

-- CAN TUSK WIN THE NEXT ELECTION WITH SUCH PARTNERS? - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN "TYGODNIK POLITYKA": "The colorful post-October 15 coalition is thus becoming increasingly monochrome. The yellow is fading, and the green is also growing paler. What about the former voters of Trzecia Droga? They have dissolved across the entire scene. According to estimates by analyst Daniel Pers (reported by Polityka Insight), roughly every third voter is now demobilized, the same number have shifted their support to KO, while every fourth has fled to Konfederacja or Grzegorz Braun's party, and the rest have been divided among Czarzasty's and Zandberg's left-wing factions."

-- THE AGRARIAN PARTY WOULD LIKE TO AVOID DEALS WITH KO ON JOINT LISTS, AS IN AN ASYMMETRICAL ARRANGEMENT THEY WILL GET MERELY SCRAPS - KALUKIN FURTHER IN "TYGODNIK POLITYKA": "The Agrarian party would like to avoid deals with KO on joint lists, as in an asymmetrical arrangement they will receive merely scraps. Therefore, they will closely monitor the political scene in the coming months, hoping that perhaps some new entity will emerge with which they could form an alliance. A mythical local government project? Or perhaps some reasonably moderate modernizers will break away from the right? There is still time for such fantasies today, but in about a year, they will have to seriously consider the future."

-- OPTIMISM HAS RETURNED TO THE RANKS OF THE RULING COALITION, ALTHOUGH ITS DISTRIBUTION IS UNEVEN. HOWEVER, THE RECENT DEFEATISM HAS DISAPPEARED - STILL KALUKIN: "Optimism has returned to the ranks of the ruling coalition, although its distribution is not even. However, the recent defeatism has disappeared, and the picture of the political game has changed. For some time now, it has been played mainly in the right-wing's half, at times resembling a siege. As in the past week, when the series about Ziobro continued to attract attention, the president tripped over his own vetoes, and finally, the prime minister attacked the opposition with a dark tale about crypto-traders."

-- AT THE KO CLUB MEETING, TUSK WAS REPORTEDLY DRAWING A SCENARIO FOR FURTHER INCREASES, INDICATING 38% AS THE ELECTORAL TARGET FOR HIS GROUP - RAFAŁ KALUKIN CONTINUES TO WRITE: "At a recent away meeting of the KO club, Tusk was reportedly drawing a scenario for further increases, indicating 38% as the electoral target for his group. Considering the current average for this group (33%) and the remnants of Trzecia Droga (4%), this seems like a reasonably realistic calculation. And if we add 10% for a joint left-wing list – although it seems unlikely today – a small majority in the Sejm is within reach. To achieve certainty, all that's needed is a deeper flattening of the curves for PiS, Konfederacja, and Braun."

-- PERHAPS THE GOAL IS FOR BRAUN TO CONTINUE TO GROW, AS THIS MAINLY WEAKENS PIS - KALUKIN FURTHER: "The coalition can also influence this. And perhaps that's why KO leaders have recently started talking about the need to outlaw Braun's party. This, of course, cannot be achieved in a short time, but the threat itself may further help Braun mobilize his defenders. But perhaps the goal is precisely for Braun to continue to grow, as this mainly weakens PiS. Consciously playing to strengthen an ultraradical would, of course, be morally ambiguous and politically risky, yet rational in terms of electoral pragmatism."https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2325201,1,koalicja-i-przyssawki-czy-z-takimi-partnerami-tusk-moze-wygrac-nastepne-wybory.read?src=mt

-- 44.1% OF RESPONDENTS BELIEVE DONALD TUSK'S PERFORMANCE WAS BELOW EXPECTATIONS, 18.9% BELIEVE HE PERFORMED RATHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED, AND 6.3% – DECIDEDLY BETTER - IBRIS FOR RZ, DESCRIBED BY JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ: "At the halfway point, the majority of respondents in an IBRiS poll for 'Rzeczpospolita' assess his two years in government negatively. 18.9% of respondents believe he performed rather better than they expected, and 6.3% – decidedly better. However, as many as 44.1% of respondents believe his governance was below expectations, with as many as 30.9% stating decidedly worse, and 13.2% rather worse. 29.5% believe he governed in line with their expectations."https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art43478601-sondaz-jak-wyborcy-po-dwoch-latach-oceniaja-donalda-tuska-w-roli-premiera

-- DONALD TUSK HAS REBUILT KO - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON THE FRONT PAGE OF RZ: "The current two-year period of government marks the end of an era for KO and Donald Tusk's entire cabinet, following Rafał Trzaskowski's defeat. The prime minister's strategy of not reacting too hastily, but waiting and reconstructing the government – judging by the polls – has yielded results. The prime minister then focused on communication – firstly, he appointed a government spokesperson who fulfilled his tasks, and secondly, Tusk himself communicates even more frequently with voters on social media platforms, sometimes even flooding them with videos featuring himself."https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43489991-michal-szuldrzynski-dwulecie-rzadu-koalicji-15-pazdziernika-donald-tusk-odbudowal-ko

-- WŁODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY'S DECISION PLEASES TUSK, KWAŚNIEWSKI AND... THE RAZEM PARTY - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: "Włodzimierz Czarzasty has cleared the competition for leadership in the Nowa Lewica party, but he may also strengthen the Razem party, which focuses on young cadres and reviewing the government, rather than cooperating with it."

-- CZARZASTY IS NOT INFANTILE LIKE HIS COLLEAGUES - NIZINKIEWICZ FURTHER: "He feels better. This is also visible on social media, where he has actively engaged with success, and the numerous videos he posts are not infantile compared to the images promoting his government and coalition colleagues."

-- HE IS JUST STARTING A NEW POLITICAL LIFE - NIZINKIEWICZ'S CONCLUSION ABOUT CZARZASTY: "Czarzasty hopes that the position of Marshal of the Sejm will strengthen himself, Nowa Lewica, and the ruling coalition. So far, this is succeeding, as shown by the polls. KO and Lewica are recovering from losses. There is still no plan for PSL and Polska 2050, but the new/old leader of Nowa Lewica is just starting a new political life."https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43489461-jacek-nizinkiewicz-decyzja-wlodzimierza-czarzastego-cieszy-tuska-kwasniewskiego-i-partie-razem

-- PIS POLITICIANS ARE NOT LOOKING AT THE CALENDAR OR POLLS - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: "The discussion is returning about who should be prime minister after the next election, should PiS win – or rather, who definitely should not be. Although there are two years until the election, and Kaczyński's party is losing in the polls in second place, PiS politicians are not looking at the calendar or polls."

-- "OF COURSE, IT'S CALCULATED FOR A DECLINE, BUT THE ONE WHO LEAVES THE DECLINE IS DOING WELL, HE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE" - SAYS KONDZIŃSKA'S INTERLOCUTOR FROM PIS: "The article also suggested that the game is about the succession after Jarosław Kaczyński, when he steps down from party leadership. - Of course, it's calculated for a decline, but the one who leaves the decline is doing well, he is not going anywhere," says our interlocutor from PiS."https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32463530,wojna-domowa-w-pis-jaroslaw-kaczynski-wzywa-na-nowogrodzka.html

-- OVER 10 MILLION PEOPLE WHO SUPPORTED KAROL NAWROCKI WILL NOT VOTE FOR ONE PARTY, WHILE ALMOST 10 MILLION VOTERS OF TRZASKOWSKI WILL BE READY TO SUPPORT KO AND THE LEFT ONCE AGAIN - PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK QUOTED BY MAGDALENA GAŁCZYŃSKA ON ONET: "Over 10 million people who supported Karol Nawrocki will not vote for one party, and not all of them will even show up at the polls. The right-wing triangle: PiS and both Konfederacjas, involves competition for the voter – says the expert. – And almost 10 million voters of Trzaskowski will once again be ready to support KO and the Left – he explains."

-- IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE THAT THE CURRENT PRIME MINISTER WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE CANDIDATE FOR PRIME MINISTER PRESENTED DURING THE PARLIAMENTARY CAMPAIGN - CHWEDORUK TELLS GAŁCZYŃSKA: "However, it is hard to imagine that the current prime minister would once again be the candidate for prime minister presented during the parliamentary campaign. The presidential elections once again revealed the scale of antipathy towards Donald Tusk, not only among PiS voters. His successor also cannot be a politician over 60, but someone younger, as the fight will be primarily for voters aged 18 to 50 – concludes the political scientist."https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/sondazowy-zjazd-pis-i-wzrosty-ko-tusk-nie-ma-sie-z-czego-cieszyc-ale-ma-plan/40fjvzl,79cfc278

-- ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE TVP INFORMATION SERVICE IN LIQUIDATION: A PARTNERSHIP UNION? Next to it, a photo of Kaczyński with Braun.

-- PROFESSOR PINGWIN'S COMMENT ON X: Well done Jacek Sasin, has Tusk already sent you flowers?https://x.com/ProfesorPingwin/status/1999191677685137660?s=20

-- BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Starak (78), Piotr Gruszczyński, Gabriela Lenartowicz, Klaus Bachmann.


Łukasz Mężyk