Today's State of Play

ELECTION STATE: Kublik/Machowski Predict a Single List Yields 39% and 217 Seats; Królewski: Ignoring Blockchain and Crypto Trends Won't Stop Change – Only Detach Poland from Development

Łukasz Mężyk

-- "I'D PREFER BRAUN TO TUSK"? CIESZYŃSKI: I WON'T REPEAT THAT - 300LIVE:
https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- THE CRYPTOCURRENCY LAW WAS PREPARED IN A WAY THAT RESEMBLED AN ATTEMPT TO TAME TECHNOLOGY WITH TOOLS FROM TWO DECADES AGO - JAROSŁAW KRÓLEWSKI, HEAD OF SYNERISE AND OWNER OF WISŁA KRAKÓW, IN WP OPINIONS: “Decisions are made impulsively, without understanding the technology, and often without awareness of the consequences for the economy. This is not the path a state aspiring to be an innovation leader should take. Meanwhile, the crypto market in Poland needs a stable strategy based on knowledge, dialogue, and responsibility, not emotions. The law implementing European standards was prepared in a way that resembled an attempt to tame technology with tools from two decades ago. Instead of a framework supporting innovation, ideas emerged that gave administrative bodies quasi-absolute powers of intervention. The industry reacted with a warning. And rightly so.”

-- IGNORING THIS TREND WILL NOT STOP CHANGE – IT WILL ONLY DETACH POLAND FROM THE MAINSTREAM OF DEVELOPMENT - KRÓLEWSKI CONTINUES: “It is worth noting: blockchain and crypto technologies will not replace the entire financial system, but they are or will be an integral part of it. Ignoring this trend will not stop change – it will only detach Poland from the mainstream of development. The key is not fear. The key is competence. And competence requires responsibility, not political nervousness.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/krypto-w-polsce-przestanmy-w-koncu-reagowac-panicznie-opinia-7230671907068864a.html

-- ACCORDING TO EXPERTS, THE POLISH CRYPTO ASSETS ACT AIMED TO LIQUIDATE THE CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET, WHILE POLAND'S ACTIONS SHOULD BE THE OPPOSITE - ŁUKASZ ZALEWSKI IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “As Piotr Taras says, in the current geopolitical situation, when investing in crypto assets is no longer niche and one can easily invest in them through, among others, brokerage houses operating in Poland (even investments in ETFs), regulations should be introduced that will encourage major players to operate normally in Poland. Why? Experts point out that attracting the cryptocurrency industry to Poland would generate additional tax revenues (from high commissions charged, for example, by cryptocurrency exchanges). - The vetoed law would not cause rationally operating businesses to move to Poland, which is what the government should aim for, both in terms of consumer protection and budget revenues,” says Piotr Taras.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/prawo/kryptoaktywa-polska-opoznia-wdrozenie-eksperci-ostrzegaja-i-tlumacza-skutki/pb4phjw

-- THE COALITION RISKS A CRISIS. IT MAY LOSE ITS MAJORITY IN THE SEJM - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN ONE: “The power struggle within Polska 2050 may lead to a split in the party, and the ruling coalition may lose its majority in the Sejm. Our sources in Polska 2050 assure that Pełczyńska-Nałęcz has the greatest chance of winning. The problem is that her victory could lead to a gigantic crisis in the coalition. Never mind Tusk's dislike for Pełczyńska-Nałęcz. A bigger problem from the coalition's perspective is that her election will certainly lead to a split in Polska 2050.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/katarzyna-pelczynska-nalecz-walczy-o-wszystko-to-bedzie-tsunami/l68xn9w,79cfc278

-- THE RULING COALITION MAY WIN THE ELECTIONS BUT NOT RETAIN POWER - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK AND ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “If the parties forming the current ruling coalition were to run in 2027 on a single list, they could win the parliamentary elections. But they still wouldn't govern.”

-- IN THE ANALYZED SCENARIO, A JOINT LIST OF KO, LEWICA, PSL, AND POLSKA 2050 WITH A RESULT OF 39.3% CLEARLY WINS THE ELECTION RACE. Although the support achieved is 2.5 percentage points lower than what KO, Lewica, PSL, and PL2050 achieved when running separately.



-- ENTIRE COALITION: 39%
PIS 25
KONF 14
BRAUN 8
RAZEM 3.5
OTHER 4
UNDECIDED 6

-- SEATS IN THE SINGLE COALITION LIST SCENARIO:
COALITION 217
PIS 143
KONF 64
BRAUN 37

-- AS CAN BE SEEN, NEITHER KO (IN EITHER THE SCENARIO OF ALL PARTIES RUNNING ON SEPARATE LISTS OR TOGETHER WITH COALITION PARTNERS ON A SINGLE LIST) NOR PIS (IN EITHER SCENARIO) HAS AN INDEPENDENT MAJORITY - Machowski and Kublik continue in GW.

-- THE NEGATIVE BALANCE WAS INFLUENCED BY THE FACT THAT NEARLY 13% OF RESPONDENTS WHO DECLARED SUPPORT FOR ONE OF THE RULING COALITION PARTIES IN THE SEPARATE LIST SCENARIO REFUSED TO SUPPORT THE JOINT LIST - write Kublik and Machowski.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32461099,sondaz-opinia24-dla-gazety-wyborczej-koalicja-moze-wygrac.html

-- IN THE LAST FOUR MONTHS, THE NUMBER OF ANTI-UKRAINIAN CONTENT HAS INCREASED BY ALMOST 100%, WITH BRAUN'S PROFILES LEADING - RMF: “In the last four months, the number of anti-Ukrainian content has increased by almost 100% – to nearly 186,000, according to the latest report by the Institute for Media Monitoring (IMM) and the Demagog Association. Their reach was estimated at 66.4 million, meaning the average internet user over 15 years old could have encountered such content twice. The authors emphasize that profiles associated with Grzegorz Braun are at the forefront: his X account, private Facebook fan page, and the official profile of the Confederation of the Polish Crown party. In the ranking of Facebook accounts most active in publishing anti-Ukrainian propaganda, Braun's MEP account takes first place again, and his party's fan page takes third. Another politician from this formation, Włodzimierz Skalnik, is in tenth place.”
https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-eksplozja-antyukrainskich-tresci-w-polskim-internecie-na-cze,nId,8048577

-- THE RUSSIANS ARE NOT IDIOTS AND KNOW THAT NO PRO-RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA WILL PASS. SO THEY SPREAD ANTI-UKRAINIAN AND ANTI-EUROPEAN SENTIMENT - RMF REPORTS COMMENTED ON BY THE HEAD OF ZPP CEZARY KAŹMIERCZAK: The Russians are not idiots and know that after the 18 wars they have waged against us, the murder of 1 million Poles, the NKVD Polish Operation, 1920 or 1939, no pro-Russian propaganda will pass. So they spread anti-Ukrainian and anti-European sentiment – this tone is set by about 10 accounts – from the specialist in carrying dollars in briefcases from the KGB, Comrade Miller, to Braun and other renegades.
https://x.com/C_Kazmierczak/status/1999000396337926268?s=20

-- BIRTHDAYS: Dominika Wielowieyska, Paweł Olszewski, Eleonora Zielińska, Sławomir Nowak.
 


Łukasz Mężyk