Today's State of Play

THE STATE OF PLAY: Tusk Shifts Right in Relations with Germany, Targets Nawrocki; Baczyński: The Two-Year Goal Isn't Defeating Nawrocki

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PREMIER EWY KOPACZ'S 69TH BIRTHDAY.

-- CZARZASTY ANNOUNCES VOTE TO REJECT PRESIDENTIAL VETO: COALITION DECISION MADE; BOSAK ON THE POSTULATE TO DELEGALIZE THE CONFEDERATION OF THE POLISH CROWN: ANY HONEST COURT WOULD RULE IN FAVOR OF BRAUN'S PARTY - 300LIVE:
https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- DEPUTY MINISTER MARCIN ROMANOWSKI, WHO OVERLOOKED THE JUSTICE FUND DURING ZBIGNIEW ZIOBRO'S TENURE, ORDERED, AMONG OTHER THINGS, THE PRODUCTION OF A "TEARFUL" AND "MOVING" ADVERTISEMENT - KAMIL DZIUBKA ON ONET: “In the aforementioned email exchange, Marcin Romanowski continued: 'Television spot: partially tearful, moving, partially dynamic, showing what we have done: a woman who has suffered domestic violence receives help, a firefighter saves a life, a doctor resuscitates a child after an accident on the operating table, a building is being constructed (excavator), children in vests, school activities from the Siódmiok project […]'.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/ofiara-przemocy-domowej-i-lzawy-spot-tak-mial-sie-promowac-fundusz-sprawiedliwosci/v3r0mmn,79cfc278

-- PIS REMAINS THE MAIN POLITICAL OPPONENT OF THE RULING CAMP, NOT NAWROCKI, WHO HAS NO PARTY - JERZY BACZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “However, polls are starting to stabilize, and KO's recent growth has halted. Nevertheless, PiS remains the main political opponent of the ruling camp, especially Tusk's formation, and not Nawrocki, who has no party and is not currently a leader of the right, but at best a candidate for a patron.”

-- THE RULING SIDE HEARS VOICES OF TRIUMPHALISM, DECLARING THE END OF SADNESS. THIS CAN BE UNDERSTOOD AS A REACTION TO TRAUMA AND COLLAPSE AFTER FAILED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. IT'S WORSE WHEN IT OVERSHADOWS REALITY - CONTINUES THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “On the ruling side, voices of triumphalism can be heard, proclaiming the end of sadness. This can be understood as a reaction to the trauma and collapse after failed presidential elections. It's worse when it overshadows reality. Overall, the right-wing bloc still holds a clear advantage over the parties forming the ruling coalition. The results of PSL, and especially Polski 2050, are catastrophic (in one of the latest polls, Szymon Hołownia's party received 0.7% of the vote, PSL hovers around 2-3%). Even if Grzegorz Braun's Korona eventually falls below the threshold, and Lewica remains at 6-7%, it's still not enough to think about extending their rule beyond 2027.”

-- CIVIC COALITION WILL NOT AVOID A HEAD-ON, INCLUDING IDEOLOGICAL CLASH WITH THE OLD OPPONENT, NAMELY PIS. THE TWO-YEAR GOAL IS NOT TO DEFEAT NAWROCKI - STILL BACZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “It is therefore clear that Civic Coalition will not avoid a head-on, including ideological, clash with the old opponent, namely PiS. The goal in two years is not to defeat Nawrocki, and Tusk's fight with him does not necessarily have to bring down Kaczyński. These are, however, despite a certain shared element, two different fronts, and the choice of the main enemy is crucial here.
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2324215,1,wybor-wroga-czyli-fokus-tuska-na-nawrockiego-ale-to-nie-z-nim-trzeba-wygrac-za-dwa-lata.read?src=mt

-- KAROL NAWROCKI IS INCREASINGLY CLEARLY ASSUMING THE ROLE OF A PATRON OF THE POLISH RIGHT-WING - ANNA DĄBROWSKA IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “There is full agreement on the president's ambitions both in the Palace and at Nowogrodzka Street. However, there is much less consensus on whether this plan has a chance of success. The president opened the November IBRiS trust poll with a result of 51.8%. This is his record and an increase of as much as 4.9 percentage points compared to the October measurement. A person associated with PiS who has considerable knowledge of surveys commissioned by the party headquarters: – People see the physical weakness of the aging Kaczyński. They perceive him as the one who lost the parliamentary elections, and they equate victory in the presidential elections with the freshness, youth, and strength of Karol Nawrocki. Jarosław wants Karol to be a super-PiS politician, and Karol has a plan to be a super-right-wing politician. And here their interests diverge.”

-- HE'S AS MUCH OF A LEADER AS A SWIDER SAUSAGE IS - ACCORDING TO DĄBROWSKA, HOW KACZYŃSKI USED TO TALK ABOUT DUDA: “When mentions appeared that Andrzej Duda wanted to become the leader of the right, the PiS chairman used to say in trusted circles: 'He's as much of a leader as a swider sausage is.' He won't say that about Nawrocki anymore. But our sources in PiS warn: if Karol believes in his own greatness too quickly, he will end up as Duda's successor, not Kaczyński's.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2324241,1,nastepca-co-sie-dzieje-miedzy-nawrockim-a-kaczynskim-ten-drugi-na-pewno-ma-klopot.read

-- IN RELATIONS WITH GERMANY, TUSK HAS SHIFTED RIGHT AND IS TALKING ABOUT NAWROCKI - MICHAŁ KOKOT IN GW: “In relations with Germany, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has shifted to the right. This was clearly indicated by the press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin during the annual Polish-German intergovernmental consultations. On Monday, Tusk spoke about Karol Nawrocki and Konfederacja when demanding reparations from Germany. He stated that Germany had clung to the legal interpretation that Poland renounced them in the 1950s, even though 'it actually had no say in the matter' because the Soviet Union decided for the PRL authorities.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32440605,co-wiemy-po-spotkaniu-merz-tusk-premier-zaostrza-retoryke.html

-- PRAGMATIC CZARZASTY IS THE HOPE FOR AN ELECTORAL ALLIANCE WITH TUSK. RUNNING SEPARATELY, NEW LEFT WILL LOSE POWER - JANUSZ A. MAJCHEREK IN GW: “NL has a decent 6-7%, which could be enough for a joint KO/NL list to exceed 40%. Especially since the voters of both formations are understanding and would accept such an alliance perhaps without enthusiasm, but with acceptance, even if expressed through gritted teeth. This is politics, not an online date. There's probably no point in waiting for leftovers from Polska 2025, as it has only a trace electorate now and is unlikely to expand it.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32437194,pragmatyk-czarzasty-to-nadzieja-na-wyborczy-sojusz-z-tuskiem.html

-- PIS IS FACED WITH A CHOICE BETWEEN SHIFTING RIGHT AND MORAWIECKI'S MODERATE STRATEGY, WHILE KACZYŃSKI CHOOSES PRAGMATIC WAITING FOR DEVELOPMENTS - KAMILA BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: “Jarosław Kaczyński listens to mutual denunciations and complaints, but those who think he is guided solely by his own sympathies are mistaken. - If that were the case, Przemysław Czarnek would be the presidential candidate, and Ela Witek would be his campaign manager – one of the experienced PiS politicians pointed out to us.”

-- MATEUSZ HAS MUCH GREATER SUPPORT IN THE PARTY THAN EVERYONE THINKS - BARANOWSKA QUOTES ONE OF MORAWIECKI'S SUPPORTERS: “– Mateusz has much greater support in the party than everyone thinks. He is doing a huge amount of work, he is constantly meeting with MPs, traveling to their districts, talking. And the vision he presents: pro-development, open to other environments, looking forward, not living by settling scores, generally appeals to the party. Less so with the leadership and officials – assures us one of the politicians from Mateusz Morawiecki's circle.”

-- RECENTLY, ONE OF THE PiS POLITICIANS ASKED ME SARCASTICALLY: "WHEN ARE WE SUPPOSED TO FIGHT IF NOT NOW?" - STILL BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: “And today the government is rising from its polling lows, Civic Coalition itself is growing in the polls, while PiS has to share support with two right-wing parties. No wonder it's starting to flounder. Recently, one of the PiS politicians asked me sarcastically: 'When are we supposed to fight if not now?'
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-pis-jak-tankowiec-krajobraz-po-wielkiej-awanturze-w-partii,nId,22462937

-- HOWEVER, WHAT RAISES THE MOST CONTROVERSY IN THE REVEALED LETTER ARE THE PLANS TO SAVE MONEY DIRECTLY AT THE EXPENSE OF PATIENT HEALTH - SŁAWOMIR ZAGÓRSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “The revealed cuts are the fulfillment of PiS's dreams. Especially since concern for the fate of patients in public healthcare gives the party an opportunity to show its social face, which Konfederacja, with its approach to marketizing healthcare, will not do.”
https://oko.press/resort-zdrowia-chce-oszczedzac-na-leczeniu-pacjentow-w-2026-r-czy-ministra-sie-z-tego-wycofa

-- BIRTHDAYS: Ewa Kopacz, Bogusław Sonik, Małgorzata Sadurska, Jacek Gądek, Jakub Rutnicki.
 


Łukasz Mężyk