Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Stankiewicz: As long as Kaczyński is strong, there's no talk of a right-wing alliance with Putin. But he's weakening. WP Poll: 52.8% believe in PiS's return to power

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TO PARAPHRASE THE WORDS OF A GERMAN DIPLOMAT-IGNORAMUS, WE SHOULD SAY IN POLAND THAT OUR COUNTRY ALSO HAS MANY NEIGHBORS AND WE DON'T HAVE TO INSIST ON FAVORING GERMANY - BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “To save the achievements of Polish-German relations, we need to let go for a while, cool down, and wait for everything to return to normal on its own. There is no crisis in Polish-German relations. The drift we are currently observing should simply be recognized as the new normal. Therefore, paraphrasing the words of a German diplomat-ignoramus, we should say in Poland that our country also has many neighbors and we don't have to insist on favoring Germany.”

-- NORDIC PARTNERS DO NOT EVOKE ANY NEGATIVE EMOTIONS IN POLAND. NOR EXAGGERATED EXPECTATIONS - WIELIŃSKI CONTINUES: “On the other side of the Baltic Sea are countries with whom we do not share a tragic 20th-century history, we have no complexes towards them, and they do not look down on us; instead, we have a lot of common interests. (...) Moreover, Nordic partners do not evoke any negative emotions in Poland. Nor exaggerated expectations. By cooperating within NATO or using additional European Union funds for armaments and defense, we can achieve a lot.”

-- SURPRISINGLY, POLISH-GERMAN RELATIONS WERE NOT IN CRISIS WHEN PiS WAS RULING POLAND; MORAWIECKI SAT IN A PLACE OF HONOR NEXT TO THE BIRTHDAY HONOREE WOLFGANG SCHÄUBLE, THE NESTOR OF GERMAN CDU - WIELIŃSKI FURTHER IN GW: “And surprisingly, Polish-German relations were not in crisis when PiS was ruling Poland, and Angela Merkel was still Chancellor of Germany. (...) Besides, Morawiecki's German relations – after all, a graduate of German universities who interned at the German central bank, where they don't accept just anyone – looked different than PiS propaganda presented it in Poland. (...) I remember the first visit to Berlin by President Andrzej Duda, who tried to show PiS's friendly and pro-European face. And later visits by Beata Szydło, whom Merkel tried to convince of a Christian stance towards refugees. And the visits of Morawiecki, who, during press conferences, would trash the Germans (for PiS propaganda purposes), and then at the birthday party of Wolfgang Schäuble, the Nestor of the German CDU, sat in a place of honor next to the jubilarian. How did that add up?”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32428234,relacji-polsko-niemieckich-w-najblizszym-czasie-nie-da-sie-poprawic.html

-- 52.8 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS BELIEVE IN THE RETURN OF JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY TO POWER - UNITED SURVEYS FOR WP: “The question asked in the survey was: 'Do you agree with the statement that Law and Justice (PiS) will return to power after the parliamentary elections in 2027?' The answer 'I strongly agree' was chosen by 15.9 percent of respondents, while the answer 'rather agree' by 36.9 percent. This means that 52.8 percent of respondents believe in the return of Jarosław Kaczyński's party to power. There are clearly fewer skeptics. The option 'rather disagree' was chosen by 20.2 percent, and 'strongly disagree' by 15.5 percent. Together, this makes 35.7 percent. 11.5 percent of respondents chose the option 'I don't know / hard to say.'”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/czy-pis-wroci-do-wladzy-w-2027-r-polacy-zabrali-glos-nowy-sondaz/devbq1q,79cfc278

-- AS LONG AS JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI IS STRONG, THERE IS NO TALK OF AN ALLIANCE BETWEEN THE POLISH RIGHT AND PUTIN. BUT THE CHAIRMAN IS WEAKENING - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON ONET: “One thing is certain: today, after Smolensk and the attack on Ukraine, Jarosław Kaczyński will never come to an agreement with Putin. After all, he was the one who decided that in the first months of the Russian aggression, the entire Polish state rushed to help Ukraine. But Kaczyński is not eternal. However, his protégés, potential successors, and competitors on the right are no longer so burdened by anti-Russian sentiment. Some right-wingers consider Putin a defender of conservative values because he fights gays and promotes religion.”

-- IF THERE IS A SCALE OF PRO-RUSSIAN SENTIMENT ON THE RIGHT, GRZEGORZ BRAUN ACHIEVES THE HIGHEST INDICATORS - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “If there is a scale of pro-Russian sentiment on the right, Grzegorz Braun achieves the highest indicators within it. Even before his popularity in polls began to grow, he traveled to Moscow, where he met, among others, with spy Leonid Swiridov, who was expelled from Poland for attempting to extract security information from state institutions while posing as a journalist.”

-- FOR NOW, THE HIDDEN SOVIET OPTION IS HOLDING VERY STRONG IN THE POLLS - STANKIEWICZ'S CONCLUSION ON ONET: “Yes, I know. In Poland, every subsequent election is proclaimed a game for everything. But the 2027 elections will truly be such. We will decide not only whether we want to be closer or further from the European Union, but also whether we want to be closer or further from Russia. For now, the hidden Soviet option is holding very strong in the polls.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/kaczynski-na-to-nie-pojdzie-ale-inni-prawica-moze-zawrzec-sojusz-z-putinem/jfj80kn,452ad802

-- BRAUN IS A SYMPTOM, A MANIFESTATION OF A BROADER PHENOMENON TO WHICH MAINSTREAM POLITICIANS HAVE ALLOWED - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ ON INTERIA: “The indignant may not understand that Braun is a symptom, a manifestation of a broader phenomenon, to which mainstream politicians have allowed. They failed to realize in time that radicalism has become attractive and is beginning to seduce ever-larger groups of voters disillusioned with past politics. When the leader of Korona denies the existence of gas chambers, thus committing the Auschwitz lie described in the penal code, he is testing Polish debate to see how far he can go.”

-- BRAUN IS BUILDING A PLATFORM THROUGH WHICH EXTREMISMS AND FORGOTTEN MARGINS ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE MAINSTREAM - SZUBARTOWICZ CONTINUES: “In this way, he is building a platform through which extremisms and forgotten margins are slowly shifting towards the mainstream. Sociologists explain this phenomenon, present throughout the Western world, in various ways, but the common conclusion is that the consequences could be dire.”

-- IF THE ENTIRE POLISH RIGHT DOES NOT CLEARLY DISTANCE ITSELF FROM HIM, ITS MARCH TO POWER IN 2027 WILL NOT HAVE CHRISTIAN-DEMOCRATIC-CONSERVATIVE-SOCIALLY-LIBERTARIAN COLORS, BUT BROWN ONES - SZUBARTOWICZ CONTINUES: “Braun intentionally breaks rules because he doesn't need them. He intentionally despises values because they stand in his way. But if the entire Polish right does not clearly distance itself from him, its march to power in 2027 will not have Christian-democratic-conservative-socially-libertarian colors, but brown ones. And that would mean that Poland would embark on a path of destruction, hatred, and polexit, meaning straight into Putin's hands.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-dlaczego-panstwo-jest-bezsilne-wobec-grzegorza-brauna,nId,22461480

-- TUSK IS HAMLETIZING, HE WANTS TO BE LIKE KACZYŃSKI AGAIN - MATEUSZ WITCZAK ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “Tusk has also found himself in an exceptionally uncomfortable position. While in opposition, he repeatedly criticized PiS for ignoring European rulings ('this undermines the agreement, which if we don't adhere to, the Union loses its meaning'), accusing Kaczyński's party of preparing the ground for polexit. Mycek-Kwieciński considers Tusk's words to be 'cowardice' and 'proof that Civic Platform has still not learned from Rafał Trzaskowski's defeat in the presidential elections.' – The Prime Minister likes to pose on TikTok as younger than he is. But for young voters, adhering to human rights and democratic values by his cabinet is more important than the head of government posting a cool reel.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/spoleczenstwo/2323975,1,unia-ws-wyroku-tsue-nie-moze-nam-nic-narzucic-tusk-hamletyzuje-znow-chce-byc-jak-kaczynski.read?src=mt

-- THE PRESIDENT BID FAREWELL TO PIOTR WIERZBICKI, WHO PASSED AWAY AT THE AGE OF 90: Piotr Wierzbicki, an outstanding publicist, writer, music critic, and essayist, a distinguished activist of the democratic opposition in the Polish People's Republic, has passed away. Interned during martial law, he published outside censorship. Founder of “Gazeta Polska” and its long-time editor. On November 5, 2025, on the occasion of his 90th birthday, the President of the Republic of Poland wrote in a commemorative letter to the Jubilarian: “May (...) you always be accompanied by the satisfaction due to a man of letters who for decades not only passionately described Polish culture and politics but also genuinely influenced their shape.”
https://x.com/prezydentpl/status/1994494625479025123?s=20

-- BIRTHDAYS: Zbigniew Bujak, Cezary Stypułkowski. SUNDAY: Tomasz Rożek, Jacek Gdański.
 


Łukasz Mężyk