-- SZŁAPKA ON TUSK'S TWEET ABOUT ACCOUNTABILITY: HE DEFINITELY HAS SOMETHING SPECIFIC IN MIND, BUT I DON'T HAVE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- MAJORITY OF RESPONDENTS BELIEVE THE STATE SHOULD HAVE REACTED BETTER TO TRACK SABOTAGE - MAREK KOZUBAL REPORTS ON IBRIS SURVEY FOR RZ: “According to an Ibris survey commissioned by 'Rzeczpospolita', the majority of respondents critically assess the state's actions in the face of this crisis. 41.9% of respondents gave good grades to the state, while 46.2% gave bad grades, and 12% had no opinion.”
https://www.rp.pl/sluzby/art43395721-sondaz-niejednoznaczna-ocena-dzialan-panstwa-po-dywersji-na-torach

-- IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD THIS SUNDAY, THE CIVIC COALITION WOULD WIN WITH 30.9% - UNITED SURVEYS FOR WP: Law and Justice would come in second (26.4%), and Confederation third (15.6%, a significant increase of 3.7 percentage points compared to the late October survey). Lewica (7.9%, up 1 percentage point) and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (6.4%, support similar to the previous month) would also cross the electoral threshold. Razem (3.1%), Polish People's Party (3%), and Poland 2050 (1.5%) would not pass the electoral threshold.
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/ko-przed-pis-konfederacja-rosnie-w-sile-nowy-sondaz-7225663882619424a

-- OGB: KO LEADS WITH 38.01%, ahead of PiS by 10.04 p.p., with Confederation in third place with 13.97% support. The biggest increase in support is noted by Grzegorz Braun's party - Konfederacja Korony Polskiej.

-- OGB SURVEY RESULTS:
KO 38
PiS 28
KONF 14
KORONA 9
LEWICA 4
RAZEM 3
PSL 3
PL2050 1.5

-- SEATS:
KO 210
PIS 152
KONF 62
KORONA 32
https://x.com/Stan360PL/status/1993937865785426327?s=20

-- PIŚ’S CURRENT WEAKNESS IS THE LACK OF A STRONG STAFF TO IMPOSE A POLITICAL AGENDA - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “PiS's current weakness is the lack of a strong staff to impose a political agenda, propose topics, and have a long-term plan. Instead, it's a general mobilization, internal party tug-of-war, and ad-hoc chaotic reactions to crises, like the one concerning the CPK land.

-- SOON – THEY SAY AT NOWOGRODZKA – THE GOOD WAVE WILL END, THE FLAG EFFECT WON'T LAST FOREVER, STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS, LACK OF MONEY WILL CATCH UP WITH THE GOVERNMENT - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER: “However, PiS believes that Tusk's approval ratings are only temporarily rising because the 'flag effect' is at play due to Russian provocations and sabotage, the media is 'heating up' the Ziobro case, and Minister Waldemar Żurek's efficiency on social media is a novelty attracting attention. But soon – they say at Nowogrodzka – the good wave will end, the flag effect won't last forever, structural problems, lack of money, and the difficult geopolitical situation, including the feeling that we have no influence over anything, will catch up with the government.”

-- NAWROCKI HAS BETTER RELATIONS WITH BOSAK THAN WITH MENTZEN - WIELOWIEYSKA CLAIMS IN GW: “Recently, the Sejm elected a new president of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN). The candidate was Karol Polejowski, a person close to Nawrocki. MPs rejected him – and Mentzen wasn't even present at the vote. Nawrocki has better relations with Krzysztof Bosak. And it was Bosak who signaled to PiS that if Nawrocki were to be the presidential candidate from Nowogrodzka, he would support him.”

-- THE REAL TEST WILL COME WHEN CONFEDERATION COMPOSES ITS LISTS - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER: “Moods in Confederation are also mediocre, as there is serious distrust between Mentzen's liberal camp and Bosak's nationalists, which PiS is trying to fuel. The real test will come when Confederation composes its lists before the parliamentary campaign in 2027. Mentzen reportedly said that if he secures 15% in the presidential elections, his party will form an electoral committee and graciously invite the nationalists to join its lists. Bosak will not agree to such an arrangement. Kaczyński will heavily play on these divisions.”

-- MORAWIECKI MAY DECIDE TO BUILD HIS OWN FORMATION AND TEMPT THE PSL TO AGREE TO COOPERATE WITH A NEW PARTY AND JOINT LISTS IN 2027 - WIELOWIEYSKA SPECULATES: “But most importantly, the leader must ensure the coherence of his own party. If Morawiecki becomes seriously discouraged and PiS continues to fall in the polls, the former prime minister may decide to build his own formation and tempt the PSL to agree to cooperate with a new party and joint lists in 2027. He has some loyal followers and connections, but the agrarian party seems to be heading the way of Poland 2050 – they are below the 5% threshold in polls, and Tusk, while declaring excellent cooperation with the agrarian leader, announced at a Civic Coalition club meeting that he doesn't yet know if he will include the PSL.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32426977,morawiecki-szykuje-koalicje-z-czlonkiem-rzadu-tuska-wielowieyska.html

-- THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE ABOUT RESOLVING CONFLICTS, AND THE OPPOSITION ABOUT FUELING THEM. WHEN THE GOVERNMENT IS OCCUPIED WITH FUELING CONFLICTS, IT ENDS UP IN THE OPPOSITION ROWS - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH KAMILA BARANOWSKA ON INTERIA: “Such things are said not because one believes in them, but to show everyone that one wants to believe. The government should be about resolving conflicts, and the opposition about fueling them. When the government is occupied with fueling conflicts, it ends up in the opposition rows, of which Law and Justice is the best example. Today, the fundamental question is: who will be ready first for the moment when it becomes obvious that overheating the conflict is ineffective.”

-- IF THE GOVERNMENT FORGETS ABOUT FIGHTING PROBLEMS AND FOCUSES ON FIGHTING OPPONENTS, IT SOON FINDS ITSELF IN THE OPPOSITION - FLIS FURTHER WITH BARANOWSKA ON INTERIA: “Because if the government forgets about fighting problems and focuses on fighting opponents, it soon finds itself in the opposition. PiS learned this, and the Civic Coalition might also learn it soon, because if elections were held today, they would lose power. Donald Tusk has two years to orient himself in this situation and find a way out.”

-- IT IS SURPRISING WHY DONALD TUSK IS HAPPY ABOUT THIS. HE IS IN A SITUATION WHERE HE IS CARVING OUT AN INCREASINGLY LARGER PIECE OF AN EVER-SMALLER PIE - FLIS FURTHER WITH BARANOWSKA ON INTERIA: “I recently heard a thought: 'I would very much like to bury the hatchet – near the grave of a defeated enemy.' However, the KO-PiS dispute is recently in a non-trivial relationship with the dispute of each of these parties with their current or potential allies. If we look at the polls, we see an increase in the Civic Coalition's advantage over PiS, but it comes at the expense of coalition partners, which is not surprising. What is surprising is why Donald Tusk is happy about it. He is in a situation where he is carving out an increasingly larger piece of an ever-smaller pie.”

-- THERE IS A SEGMENT OF VOTERS WHO SUPPORT A PIS-CONFEDERATION COALITION, AND IN THE FACE OF THIS ENTIRE "MUD-SLINGING MATCH" BETWEEN KACZYŃSKI AND MENTZEN, THEY ARE TURNING TO BRAUN - FLIS FURTHER ON INTERIA: “Braun's support is growing because PiS is falling. This resembles the situation in 2007 when voters, disappointed by the lack of a coalition and the PO-PiS dispute, shifted to the PSL. Today, there is a segment of voters who support a PiS-Confederation coalition, and in the face of this entire 'mud-slinging match' between Kaczyński and Mentzen, they are going to Braun.”

-- WHEN PIŚ SEES A THREAT, IT BEHAVES LIKE A RHINOCEROS – IT CHARGES. RHINOCEROSES NEVER STALK THEIR ENEMIES. AND PIŚ DID THE SAME WITH CONFEDERATION - CLAIMS FLIS: “In the 2018 campaign, campaign manager Tomasz Poręba once posted that it was a match: PiS versus the rest of the world. And this perception persists within the party. When PiS sees a threat, it behaves like a rhinoceros – it charges. Rhinoceroses never stalk their enemies. And PiS did the same with Confederation.”

-- MORAWIECKI DECISIVELY SAVED THE PIŚ GOVERNMENTS IN 2017, DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE ENTIRE PIŚ ACTIVIST BASE CONSIDERED HIM AN ALIEN BODY - CLAIMS FLIS WITH BARANOWSKA: “By the way, few people remember that when Ewa Kopacz became prime minister, the government's and Civic Platform's approval ratings went up. And at the same time, she had a very bad reputation within her party and among commentators generally. The favor of the people sometimes rides on a completely different horse than the favor of the political class and commentators. It was similar with Mateusz Morawiecki, who decisively saved the PiS governments in 2017, despite the fact that the entire PiS activist base considered him an alien body and would have preferred Beata Szydło to remain prime minister.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-kto-najwiecej-traci-na-sporze-kaczynskiego-z-mentzenem-prof,nId,22459798

-- A NEW CONFRONTATION WITH BRUSSELS, WHICH, ALONGSIDE THE STILL UNRESOLVED JUDICIAL ISSUE, WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS ENERGY AND MIGRATION MATTERS - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK ON INTERIA: “However, since successive governments, starting from Ewa Kopacz and ending with Mateusz Morawiecki, have failed to do so, by undertaking successive commitments, all that remains for us now is to fight for the mitigation of its rigors. If this fails, then after the potential takeover of power by a right-wing coalition in 2027, it will initiate – under the leadership of the president – a new confrontation with Brussels, which, alongside the still unresolved judicial issue, will also encompass energy and migration matters.”

-- PROF. DUDEK WRITES ABOUT POLEXIT IN INSTALLMENTS: “The new government, as part of 'softening' Brussels, will proceed to implement Zbigniew Ziobro's old idea of ceasing to pay contributions to the EU fund, which will result in predictable retaliations. A 'Polexit' in installments will begin.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-polexit-na-raty,nId,22460308

-- WILL THE EUROPEAN COURT OF HUMAN RIGHTS RULING LEGALIZING THE USE OF PEGASUS SPYWARE BY STATES NOW INFLUENCE THE VIEWS OF POLISH POLITICIANS AND PROSECUTORS? – JAN ROKITA IN WSZYSTKO CO NAJWAŻNIEJSZE: “Unlike me, for whom the ECHR is no authority, it seems that the Strasbourg judges have so far been treated as oracles by people from Donald Tusk's camp, including the chairwoman of the Polish investigative committee, MP Magdalena Sroka. So, will the ECHR ruling, dismissing the charges brought against the Spanish government by Josep Costa, and thus legalizing the use of Pegasus spyware by states, now influence the views of Polish politicians and prosecutors? Or will it turn out to be better to remain silent about it, as it might only hinder the desired revenge on political opponents?”
https://wszystkoconajwazniejsze.pl/jan-rokita-pegasus-zalegalizowany-w-strasbourgu/

-- BIRTHDAYS: Anna Kamińska, Stanisław Gawłowski.