Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Kondzińska/Szpala: The Government Believes the Era of Gloom is Over, Kalukin: Tusk's Conflict with Nawrocki is Suffocating Others, Pełczyńska on the "Lobbying Republic"

Łukasz Mężyk

-- JOINT TAX FILING IN A PARTNERSHIP WITHOUT CHILDREN? PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ: IT'S QUESTIONABLE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- THE OPPOSITION HAS A MAJORITY, BUT KO IS THE LEADER – THIS IS HOW THE LATEST IBRIS POLL CONDUCTED FOR „RZECZPOSPOLITA” IS SUMMARIZED BY PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS: “Changes within the margin of error. Stability that will last, but cannot be maintained until the elections. The honeymoon period after the presidential elections has passed. The opposition has a majority, but KO is the leader – this is how the latest IBRis poll conducted for „Rzeczpospolita” is summarized by Prof. Jarosław Flis, a sociologist from Jagiellonian University.”

-- IBRIS POLL RESULTS FOR RZ:
30.4%. The support for Donald Tusk's formation has not budged compared to the survey from the end of October.
PiS 27.1
Confederation 16.1
Lewica 7.2
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej 5.1
Razem 3.9
PSL 3.2
PL 2050 1.7
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art43394221-sondaz-partyjny-utrwala-sie-pozytywny-trend-dla-ko-i-negatywny-dla-pis

-- THE PRESIDENT IS TO BE INFORMED IMMEDIATELY OF THREATS - MAREK DOMAGALSKI IN RZ: “In accordance with Article 19 of the Act on the Counterintelligence Military Service and the Military Intelligence Service (after all, we are close to war), the heads of SKW and SWW – each within their own jurisdiction – informing the Minister of National Defence, shall immediately provide the President and the Prime Minister with information that may be of significant importance for the security and international position of the Republic of Poland. Furthermore, they shall immediately provide the head of state with such data in every case when he decides so. A similar regulation applies to the heads of ABW and the Intelligence Agency. And there is no question of any additional conditions or, for example, the mediation of the Prime Minister or a minister.”
https://www.rp.pl/rzecz-o-prawie/art43389101-marek-domagalski-prezydent-ma-byc-informowany-bez-zwloki-o-zagrozeniach

-- “THE ERA OF GLOOM HAS DECIDEDLY ENDED” THE GOVERNMENT IS SEEKING OPPORTUNITY IN THE CONFLICT WITH NAWROCKI - IWONA SZPALA AND AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “- With Andrzej Duda, there was a feeling that he was a figure in decline. He was a politician who no longer fueled polarization. Now there is a real opponent. After all, everything Karol Nawrocki does works in our favor. I think similarly about what he will no longer do, because we won't let him. The situation is visible in the ratings of Civic Coalition and the atmosphere within the government itself. The era of gloom has decidedly ended – she assesses.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32423661,rzad-szuka-szansy-w-konflikcie-z-nawrockim-dziala-na-nasza.html

-- THE CONFLICT BETWEEN TUSK AND NAWROCKI HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DOMINATED OUR POLITICS, CUTTING OFF OXYGEN TO THE REMAINING PLAYERS - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Sharp exchanges at mid-range, punctuated by successive Russian provocations, and then starting all over again. The conflict between Tusk and Nawrocki has almost completely dominated our politics, cutting off oxygen to the remaining players.”

-- TUSK HAS EMERGED FROM THE DEEPEST SLUMP OF HIS CAREER IN TWO DECADES - CONTINUES KALUKIN: “Donald Tusk has emerged from the deepest slump of his career in two decades. After Rafał Trzaskowski's defeat, his leadership was dramatically shaken. He was more lost than ever, lost his ability to make decisions, and fumbled blindly. His uncertainty was visible at almost every step, in his decisions, emotional public appearances, facial expressions, and gestures.”

-- IN PRACTICE, THE PEASANTS ARE TUSK'S PETITIONERS - CONTINUES RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Moreover, none of the coalition partners allow themselves to undermine the position of the head of government anymore. Hołownia, who aims for this, is on his way out, and his party is fading. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz has recently flexed his sovereignty muscles, although everyone knows how weak they are. The PSL, seeking electoral support, seems doomed to joint lists with KO today. The peasants will, of course, continue to mention half-heartedly that they can look for partners on the right as well, but in practice, they are Tusk's petitioners. Czarzasty, on the other hand, got what he wanted, and now he will gladly take on the role of guardian of the coalition's interests in the Sejm.”

-- AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF BRAUN, JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S POPULISM MAY SEEM ALMOST RESPECTABLE - CONTINUES KALUKIN: “Initially, there was a fear that they would become discouraged and go into a long internal emigration, but that did not happen. Perhaps, paradoxically, the sinister trend from their point of view on the right helped: the radical profile of the new president, the strengthening Confederation, and above all, Grzegorz Braun's advance in the polls. The threat of a relapse of right-wing governments has taken on a completely new dimension in this situation. Against the backdrop of what might happen in 2027, Jarosław Kaczyński's populism may seem almost respectable.”

-- FOR NOW, TUSK SEEMS TO BE MORE IN CONTROL OF THE FRONT LINE - CONTINUES KALUKIN: “However, for now, Tusk seems to be more in control of the front line. His main assets are his vast experience, a politically favorable international situation (although objectively increasingly worrying), institutional advantage over the presidential center, and a better-organized political base. But will this conflict, set up in this way, favor the prime minister in the long run?”

-- NAWROCKI'S PROFILE SEEMS TO BE ALMOST PERFECTLY FITTING THE SCHEME OF A GENERATIONAL COUP IN POLISH POLITICS DELAYED FOR YEARS - KALUKIN'S CONCLUSION: “Nawrocki's profile seems to be almost perfectly fitting the scheme of a generational coup in Polish politics, delayed for years. In many respects, he is the antithesis of the old political class that grew out of the intellectual tradition. However, we still know little about Nawrocki's qualifications. His first hundred days in office by no means showed whether his image of a 'strongman' is substantiated by actual abilities. The commentary has not lacked oohs and aahs, but these are just impressions, while a cool analysis provides no basis for them.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2323411,1,dwoch-na-solo-nawrocki-kontra-tusk-to-zwarcie-odcielo-tlen-pozostalym-graczom

-- WE PROTEST AGAINST LOBBYING AND WE RAISE ISSUES THAT ARE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR OTHERS, SUCH AS DEPOLITICIZING COMPANIES - KATARZYNA PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ IN CONVERSATION WITH BARTOSZ TREDER IN ONET: “I stand firm where I have stood since 2020. We were founded as a formation that aims to bring new politics by introducing different standards. We protest against lobbying and raise issues that are uncomfortable for others, such as the depoliticization of State Treasury companies. We are the only party that insists that this should be done as soon as possible. There is no government project, so we came up with a parliamentary one, which was thwarted. Now we are coming with another. It's difficult when other parties are against the coalition agreement.”

-- BREAKING AGREEMENTS IS NO REASON FOR PRIDE - CONTINUES PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ IN ONET: “This is a test for the coalition, which involves keeping one's word. We watch ourselves, keep our promises, and expect the same from others. I read posts from some social media users who are happy that Polska 2050 'might be outplayed.' That would be no success at all. Breaking agreements is no reason for pride.”

-- THE POSSIBLE 'OUTPLAYING SOMEONE' IS NOTHING FROM WHICH ANYONE IN THE COALITION COULD BE PROUD - CONTINUES PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ: “The agreement is a coalition agreement, and the possible 'outplaying someone' is nothing from which anyone in the coalition could be proud, so I do not assume such a scenario. I don't think this is a personal matter, because the position belongs to a coalition partner. The national council and the parliamentary club, through democratic procedures, indicated my candidacy.”

-- THE "LOBBYING REPUBLIC" HAS GROWN EXCESSIVELY - SAYS PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ IN CONVERSATION WITH ONET: "The lobbying Republic" has grown excessively. I hope that the solutions developed regarding meters on walls will be adopted as the previous ones were, i.e., above divisions. I think everyone has matured to the decision that the pathology of overdevelopment in our country needs to be curbed.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/pelczynska-nalecz-dla-onetu-lamanie-umow-to-zaden-powod-do-chwaly-wywiad/lpb17jq,79cfc278

-- ACCORDING TO 72% OF RESPONDENTS, ZBIGNIEW ZIOBRO SHOULD RETURN TO POLAND AND ANSWER IN COURT REGARDING THE FUND OF JUSTICE - POLLSTER FOR SE: 14% of respondents disagree. 14% also have no opinion on the matter.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/zbigniew-ziobro-powinien-wrocic-do-polski-wyniki-sondazu-nie-pozostawiaja-zludzen/eeg21g1,79cfc278

-- POSTS PUBLISHED ON THIS ACCOUNT ENCOURAGE VIOLENCE, INSULT, AND SPREAD FALSE INFORMATION; SOME OF HIS POSTS ARE SHARED BY, AMONG OTHERS, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI AND HEAD OF THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR AND ADMINISTRATION MARCIN KIERWIŃSKI - SZYMON JADCZAK IN WP: “Maciej Lasek sits on the board of a foundation where the director is one of the most aggressive haters on the Polish internet. According to Virtual Poland's findings, Kamil Rudziński hides under the nickname Morgenstern616. Posts published on this account encourage violence, insult, and spread false information. Rudziński himself denies this. On X.com, politicians from KO follow him. Some of his posts are shared by, among others, Deputy Prime Minister Radosław Sikorski and the head of the Ministry of Interior and Administration Marcin Kierwiński. Morgenstern616 himself boasts of being an active member of Sieć na Wybory (Network for Elections), an initiative founded and coordinated on X by KO MP Roman Giertych.”

-- JADCZAK QUOTES SOME OF MORGENSTERN'S POSTS: “And this is the profile of Morgenstern616: 'F…ing PiS c_nt, may you k… die' – that's to Michał Karnowski from wpolityce.pl. 'May you choke on Odra river water' – to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. 'I'm waiting for the day someone mugs Kaczafi' – that's about Jarosław Kaczyński. 'Will you die before Putin or shortly after him?' – that's to Zbigniew Ziobro. He always writes about President Karol Nawrocki as 'junkie'. And generally: 'there will be lampposts and scaffolds for PiS members.' To one of the priests: 'f_ck the Catholic Taliban, die in torment and pain, you c_nt.'
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/zdychaj-w-mekach-i-bolu-jak-dyrektor-fundacji-zalozonej-przez-macieja-laska-wspiera-w-sieci-rzad-tuska-7225700903811648a

-- UNEMPLOYMENT, GENTLY BUT STILL, IS GROWING - GAZETA.PL: “Recent months have brought slight corrections in unemployment rates, but in October, the unemployment rate neither increased nor decreased. The level of 5.6%, to which unemployment rose (by 0.01 percentage points) in September, was maintained in October as well. Thus, the Central Statistical Office confirmed the preliminary estimates presented by the Ministry of Labour. However, this is a result of 0.7 percentage points higher than in October 2024. This means that unemployment, gently but still, is growing.”
https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,32425696,bezrobocie-rosnie-sa-dane-z-rynku-pracy-pierwszy-taki-miesiac.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Zdrada (89), Andrzej Rzepliński, Andrzej Halicki, Adam Leszczynski, Andrzej Szczerski, Przemysław Iwańczyk, Grzegorz Lipiec, Jerzy Smoliński, Tomasz Sygut.
 


Łukasz Mężyk