Today's State of Play

GAME STATE: Trump Again on Nawrocki, Stanowski to TVN24: February 1st, the media market will be different, and you won't stop it

Łukasz Mężyk

-- POLAND IS GREAT, AND THE MAN WHO WON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS FANTASTIC - DONALD TRUMP FOR BRITISH STATION GB NEWS: “- Poland is great, and the man who won the presidential election is fantastic. He had no chance of coming close to winning. He was one of many candidates. Thanks to his friend and my friend, a mutual acquaintance, I endorsed him, and he won the election. It was quite a surprise. But he is fantastic. He will be a great president,” Trump said.
https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2025-11-15/donald-trump-chwali-karola-nawrockiego-duze-zaskoczenie/

-- VIDEO WITH TRUMP'S WORDS ABOUT THE POLISH PRESIDENThttps://x.com/zaklinaskowron/status/1989634889281413132?s=20

-- KRZYSZTOF STANOWSKI ANNOUNCED THAT PRESIDENT KAROL NAWROCKI WILL BE A GUEST ON KANAŁ ZERO ON MIKOŁAJKI AND RENEWED THE INVITATION TO DONALD TUSK “EVEN WITH GIERTYCH AND THE SERVICES”: “Mr. Prime Minister, this is intimidation of the media. What are you after? I hope not, because we will not be intimidated. On this occasion, I am renewing the invitation for an interview. It so happens that on Mikołajki, December 6th, viewers of Kanał ZERO will be able to spend time with President Karol Nawrocki. I warmly invite everyone to this. We agreed some time ago with the President that he would periodically answer our viewers' calls. So, see you there. But if you, Mr. Prime Minister, see the President gaining popularity, especially among young people, and you might want to change that, then you are also invited. You are also invited. The studio is also for you, so Mr. Prime Minister, I invite you for an interview. And if you want to come with Giertych, you can even come with Giertych and all possible services to check us. Although I have no doubt that you are checking us all the time, regularly.”

-- ON FEBRUARY 1, 2026, THE MEDIA MARKET IN POLAND WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN IT IS NOW, AND YOU WON'T STOP IT - STANOWSKI TO TVN24: “How does TVN24 use such an opportunity to put my picture and throw something in? Okay, I understand, I don't even blame you, but anyway, I have one important piece of information for all of you. On February 1, 2026, the media market in Poland will be different than it is now, and you won't stop it, and slandering us into cooperation won't work.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icfpri3i45I

-- MACIEJ BEREK WILL BE A GUEST ON POLITYCZNY WF IN POLSAT NEWS AND ON YT ON SUNDAY AT 11 AMhttps://x.com/MaciejBerek/status/1989643099556253992?s=20

-- TUSK IS RISKING. HE BELIEVES IN THE CHARGE MORE THAN IN SUBSTANCE. WHAT IF POLES DECIDE THAT IMPRISONING OPPOSITION LEADERS INTERESTS THEM LESS THAN THE TROUBLE GETTING TO A DOCTOR? - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “Regardless of these or other factors favoring Tusk, his decision to 'burn the ships' is still a risk. On the one hand, it definitively changes the nature of Polish politics. It turns it into a jungle where every trick is allowed. But Poles may also decide at any moment that imprisoning opposition leaders interests them less than the trouble getting to a doctor. This also applies to rising energy prices, the ruin of public finances, or the shutdown of Polish industry or agriculture.”

-- THE AWAKENING MAY PROVE PAINFUL FOR THE RULING COALITION - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “The awakening may prove painful for the ruling coalition. Will the last resort then be some tinkering with the electoral process using the courts taken over by Żurek? I still refuse to believe it.”

-- POLL ANALYSTS REPEATING CHORALLY THAT PIS IS ENDING SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THIS CONCLUSION HAS APPEARED MANY TIMES BEFORE, MOST RECENTLY WHEN NAWROCKI'S DEFEAT WAS PREDICTED AS A CERTAINTY - ZAREMBA AGAIN IN RZ: “Poll analysts who repeatedly state in chorus that PiS is ending should remember that this conclusion has appeared many times before, most recently when Nawrocki's defeat was predicted as a certainty. Although PiS has real problems. Its voters are influenced not only by fear related to police-prosecutorial actions. They are fleeing to Grzegorz Braun's party. His extremism seems to be the only answer to the closing of the liberal-left establishment in Poland and Europe. Braun is a complete black hole in the context of a potential right-wing coalition. Today, he is therefore an additional element of Tusk's hope.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art43327881-piotr-zaremba-donald-tusk-ryzykuje-wierzy-w-mlocke-bardziej-niz-w-merytoryke

-- KAROL NAWROCKI PUSHES THE BOUNDARIES OF THE CONSTITUTION, BUT DOES NOT BREAK IT - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “Of course, this dispute has another dimension. It cannot be denied that Nawrocki is more boldly pushing his competencies than Duda. In my opinion, he is not breaking the law, but he is reaching the limits of what is granted to him in the constitution.”

-- NAWROCKI IS NOT HELPLESS IN THIS STRUGGLE. FOR NOW, THE HEAD OF STATE IS LEADING THE TRUST RANKINGS - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “The President is being presented as a great brake, a destroyer of the state. At the same time, Nawrocki is not helpless in this struggle. For now, the head of state is at the forefront of trust rankings; it is possible that his arguments work in favor of the right in the parliamentary elections. Although he might overdo it. The question is whether Tusk, in turn, will go further in shielding his power with naked force.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-karol-nawrocki-rozpycha-sie-do-granic-konstytucji-ale-jej-ni,nId,22453580

-- WHEN PIS LOSES ELECTIONS, IT BECOMES HUMBLE, AND WHEN IT WINS, IT BECOMES STUPID. NOW, DUE TO WINNING THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, IT HAS ENTERED A PHASE OF STUPIDITY - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN A CONVERSATION WITH ELIZA OLCZYK IN RZ: “As for Law and Justice, a certain dependence is visible – when it loses elections, it becomes humble, and when it wins, it becomes stupid. Now, due to winning the presidential elections, it has entered a phase of stupidity. This is manifested, for example, in attacks on Konfederacja. I understand that Kaczyński believes that since Karol Nawrocki was able to gain 51% of the votes, PiS is also capable of achieving such a result. And that the best method for such success is to attack Konfederacja and point out its free-market stance. Although the lesson of 2023 clearly shows that direct attacks by PiS on other parties tend to harm the attackers rather than the attacked.”

-- KACZYŃSKI IS SATISFIED WITH INTERNAL STRUGGLES, THE POINT IS THAT WITH THIS METHOD HE CONTROLS AN INCREASINGLY SMALL PIECE OF THE PIE - FLIS AGAIN WITH OLCZYK IN RZ: “Jarosław Kaczyński is satisfied with internal struggles. He maintains balance within the party and intends to do so for the next two years, until the elections. Until then, he will be the main star in PiS. The point is that with this method, he controls an ever smaller piece of the pie.”

-- IN TWO YEARS, THE POLITICAL SCENE WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE - FLIS AGAIN WITH OLCZYK IN RZ: “Another example – in 2017, PiS had a terrible slump, in April support for this party dropped to 32%, and over the next two years it rose to 47%. Therefore, I would put forward the thesis that in two years the political scene will certainly change. We just don't know in which direction.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art43327921-prof-jaroslaw-flis-wiceburmistrzowie-kibicuja-przymusowej-dwukadencyjnosci

-- THE ONLY FLARE THAT ULTIMATELY CAUSED DANGER WAS THROWN AT THE AMERICAN CONSULATE – AND NOT BY A NATIONALIST, BUT BY A LEFT-WING ACTIVIST, WHICH ONLY UNDERSCORES THE ABSURDITY OF THE SITUATION - MAREK KĘSKRAWIEC IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The only flare that ultimately caused danger was thrown at the American consulate – and not by a nationalist, but by a left-wing activist, which only underscores the absurdity of the situation. For it is not in the smoke and fog of illegal pyrotechnics that the main dangers to our country lie, revealed on a day that should have been a celebration of shared joy.”

-- IN RECENT WEEKS, THE PALACE HAS BEEN TAKING OVER THE ROLE OF THE MAIN CENTER OF THE RIGHT - KĘSKRAWIEC CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK: “It may seem like a minor fact, but it shows once again how divided the Polish right is, and how strongly the Palace has been taking over the role of its main center in recent weeks. Three months after his inauguration, the President and his entourage have not shown any exceptional talents, but nothing has happened that would significantly lower his ratings either.”

-- NAWROCKI HAS A STRONGER CHARACTER THAN DUDA AND DOES NOT SEE HIMSELF AS KACZYŃSKI'S HOSTAGE - KĘSKRAWIEC CONTINUES IN TP: “What is certain is that Nawrocki does not consider himself a 'caretaker of the chandelier,' so he will constantly clash with the government (over the National Health Fund, appointments in courts, the military, and services, etc.), but not necessarily by consulting everything with PiS. He has a stronger character than Duda and does not see himself as Kaczyński's hostage. Besides, the party leader is also not exactly preparing for his first exam. He first needs to get the party in order.”

-- I WOULD DISMISS THE SCENARIO OF MENTZEN AND TUSK REACHING AN AGREEMENT, BECAUSE IN THE EYES OF THE CONFEDERACJA ELECTORATE, ITS LEADER WOULD THEN BE FINISHED - CLAIMS KĘSKRAWIEC: “I would dismiss the scenario of Mentzen and Tusk reaching an agreement, because in the eyes of the Konfederacja electorate, its leader would then be finished. However, Konfederacja is not much closer to PiS either – it is a party that preaches different ideas about the role of the state in social life. Kaczyński wants as much of this state as possible, and Mentzen as little as possible.” 

-- ZIOBRO HELPED THE GOVERNMENT - CLAIMS KĘSKRAWIEC IN TYGODNIK: “Ziobro, however, decided to stay in Budapest. This disappointed PiS and Kaczyński, and at the same time unintentionally helped the government. Let's consider what would have happened if the prosecutor's request for Ziobro's arrest, who is ill, had been rejected by an independent court? It would have been a defeat for Tusk among the most anti-PiS part of his electorate and further proof of his team's weak effectiveness. If an arrest had been ordered, PiS could have strengthened its new conspiracy theory, according to which Żurek's decision to abolish the only rule introduced by Ziobro, praised by lawyers, namely the drawing of lots for judges in cases – was merely a prelude to appointing a panel that would 100% convict the arrested, suffering politician.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/kaczynski-kontra-reszta-polski-jak-bardzo-skloceni-sa-polscy-politycy-192233

-- BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Borowczak, Aleksander Kwaśniewski (71), Eugeniusz Kłopotek, Wadim Tyszkiewicz, Marzena Suchan, Stanisław Janas. SUNDAY: Krystyna Starczewska, Edward Nowak, Mieczysław Janowski, Edmund Wittbrodt, Jakub Kumoch, Julia Przyłębska, Włodzimierz Karpiński, Sebastian Kulczyk, Anna Chałupa, Norbert Kaczmarczyk.
 


Łukasz Mężyk