Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Wielowieyska: Some Matters Can Be Overheated, Zaremba: The Chronic Shortage in Healthcare is Becoming a Cataclysm, Danielewski: PiS Has Not Exceeded 30% in Any of the Last 14 Polls. This is Already a Crisis

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRIME MINISTER'S TWEET - 24 hours:
1.4 million views
2 thousand RTs
8 thousand likes
https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1986764922919793062?s=20

-- PRESIDENT'S TWEET - 19 hours:
2.4 million views
5 thousand RTs
29 thousand likes
https://x.com/NawrockiKn/status/1986822532373082375?s=20

-- MORAWIECKI REMIXED TUSK'S POPCORN VIDEO: https://x.com/MorawieckiM/status/1987113419494007139?s=20

-- THE PROSECUTOR GENERAL SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT THE DECISION ON ARREST WILL BE MADE BY AN INDEPENDENT COURT. NOT THE PRIME MINISTER, NOT A MINISTER, BUT THE COURT ITSELF. THIS CONCERNS PRINCIPLES, AND AS FOR POLITICAL MARKETING, I WILL SAY THIS: SOME MATTERS CAN BE OVERHEATED - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA: “It is good that the Sejm has lifted Zbigniew Ziobro's immunity and agreed to his detention. However, the recent video of Minister Waldemar Żurek is jarring. The judiciary should do its job while maintaining restraint in commenting on these events. Suggesting that Ziobro will be able to eat żurek (a traditional Polish soup, also the minister's surname) in a penal institution invalidates this standard. The Prosecutor General should emphasize that the decision on arrest will be made by an independent court. Not the Prime Minister, not a minister, but the court itself. The Prosecutor General should recognize the principle that one does not joke about arrest, and the prosecution must act without political pressure, based on the law. This is regarding principles, and as for political marketing, I will say this: some matters can be overheated.”
https://x.com/DWielowieyska/status/1987044246747017585?s=20

-- NATIONAL SECURITY IS A MATTER OF UTMOST IMPORTANCE, NOT A PLAYGROUND FOR INTERNET TROLLING - PAWEŁ SZEFERNAKER: “Donald Tusk, by using this topic for current political games, weakens trust in state institutions.”
https://x.com/szefernaker/status/1987126728070713846?s=20

-- A WAVE OF DISINFORMATION HAS BEGUN REGARDING THE LOWER ODER VALLEY PARK - PAWEŁ SZEFERNAKER: “The Tusk government wanted blanket approval for a park that could restrict navigation on the Oder! For years, German foundations and politicians have been trying to restrict navigation on the Oder. One can protect nature and simultaneously not block development, but despite many requests and suggestions, it was decided to act against the economic interests of the region.”
https://x.com/szefernaker/status/1986894411167379507?s=20

-- IN NONE OF THE LAST 14 POLLS HAS PiS EXCEEDED 30% SUPPORT. THIS IS ALREADY A CRISIS - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “In none of the last 14 polls has PiS exceeded 30% support. If elections were held next Sunday, and turnout was similar to 2023, Kaczyński's party would lose over 1.2 million voters. This is already a crisis.”

-- AVERAGE POLL RESULT CALCULATED BY DANIELEWSKI:
Civic Coalition (KO): 34% (+3 percentage points compared to early September)
Law and Justice (PiS): 29% (–2)
Confederation: 15% (no change)
Confederation of the Polish Crown: 7% (+3)
The Left: 6% (–1)
Together: 4% (n/c)
Polish People's Party (PSL): 3% (n/c)
Poland 2050: 3% (n/c)
Because we are including as many as three OGB (a polling firm) surveys in the average, which are more favorable to KO than others, support for Civic Coalition may be slightly overestimated.

-- PiS HAS LOST 1.2 MILLION VOTERS - ACCORDING TO DANIELEWSKI: “The average result of 29% for PiS is also as much as 6 percentage points worse than in the 2023 parliamentary elections. If the Sejm were elected next Sunday, and turnout were similar to that of two years ago, Jarosław Kaczyński's party would have lost over 1.2 million supporters.”

-- THE GOVERNMENT IS RATED EXTREMELY POORLY, BUT PiS IS EVEN WORSE - WRITES MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “What can one say about the largest opposition party when its ratings are as much as 16 percentage points lower than the number of government opponents? Perhaps that while Tusk's cabinet is rated extremely poorly, Law and Justice is even worse.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2321501,1,co-slychac-w-sondazach-kaczynski-stracil-milion-jego-marzenia-o-czworce-z-przodu-to-czysta-fantazja

-- REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM ACROSS THE COUNTRY ABOUT OPERATIONS BEING POSTPONED TO NEXT YEAR AND PATIENTS BEING TURNED AWAY BY HOSPITALS - JUDYTA WATOŁA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Reports are coming in from across the country about operations being postponed to next year and patients being turned away by hospitals. The situation is most difficult in Silesia, where hospitals have had their contracts reduced for the last two months of the year due to 'underperformance,' while overperformances have not been paid.”

-- THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE AMENDMENT TO THE MEDICAL FUND ACT, THE DRAFT OF WHICH DOES NOT YET EXIST - WATOŁA FURTHER IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The Ministry of Health has announced that it will take action to ensure the National Health Fund (NFZ) receives PLN 3.5 billion in financial support this year. This will be possible after an amendment to the Medical Fund Act, the draft of which, however, does not yet exist.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32386399,nowe-miliardy-dla-nfz-to-na-razie-iluzja-fundusz-je-dostanie.html

-- THE CHRONIC SHORTAGE IN HEALTHCARE, WHICH EXISTED DURING THE PiS ADMINISTRATION AS WELL, IS TURNING INTO A DESTRUCTIVE CATACLYSM - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “The chronic shortage in healthcare, which existed during the PiS administration as well, is turning into a destructive cataclysm. Why? The previous Minister of Health, Izabela Leszczyna, complained in one of her many grotesque statements that the PiS-era NFZ fulfilled every whim of the hospitals. Well, here came those who put an end to this 'extravagance’.”

-- I MYSELF WROTE MANY TIMES: FIRST OPERATIONS FOR THOSE IN NEED, ONLY THEN STADIUMS AND ALL THE REST - ZAREMBA FURTHER: “I myself wrote many times: first operations for those in need, only then stadiums and all the rest. It's like beating your head against a wall. Although perhaps one should start with a change of priorities. But from which one?”

-- THEY ARE BREAKING THE THERMOMETER SO WE DON'T KNOW OUR COLLECTIVE FEVER - PIOTR ZAREMBA STILL IN INTERIA: “Doctor Jankowski spoke about this, and the media pointed out specific hospitals and regions where such situations occur. Szłapka, and through him Donald Tusk, are breaking the thermometer so we don't know our collective fever. In reality, they are focused on one thing: pursuing Zbigniew Ziobro.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-zaremba-uslyszalem-ze-moge-w-kazdej-chwili-umrzec-na-sor-prz,nId,22451656

-- RULE OF LAW IN POLAND - A DEMOCRATIC STATE, WHERE ELECTION VERDICTS ARE RECOGNIZED - CAN ONLY BE SAVED BY CONSENSUS, WHICH... WILL NOT HAPPEN - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “And the pessimistic punchline is that the rule of law in Poland – a democratic state where election verdicts are recognized – can only be saved by consensus, which... will not happen. Especially if Ziobro is not held accountable by an independent court, but takes his own revenge in a few years.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-zbigniew-ziobro-z-zapalkami-przy-beczce-prochu,nId,22451976

-- AN ACT OF JUSTICE UPON ZIOBRO – PROBABLY THE ONLY ONE THAT WILL OCCUR IN RELATION TO HIM - EWA SIEDLECKA ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “This is an act of justice upon Ziobro – probably the only one that will occur in relation to him. Because he is unlikely to return to Poland to face the charges. He will decide to wait until the 2027 elections, hoping for a change of government and the end of his troubles.”

-- GROUNDS FOR A WANTED NOTICE AND EUROPEAN ARREST WARRANT WILL NOT EXIST - SIEDLECKA FURTHER: “This, theoretically, would give the prosecution the possibility to issue a wanted notice, and on that basis, a European arrest warrant. However, a wanted notice is issued for someone who is hiding, and Ziobro is not hiding for now. If he does not appear when summoned by the prosecution, he will likely send a sick note. Therefore, the grounds for a wanted notice and a European arrest warrant will not exist.”

-- HE WILL NOT EVEN NEED FORMAL ASYLUM IN HUNGARY. EXPERT OPINIONS WILL SUFFICE - SIEDLECKA STILL ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “Ziobro has the advantage of a real illness, the nature of which includes periods of improvement and deterioration. Thus, he will not even need formal asylum in Hungary. Expert opinions, challenging them, further opinions, and opinions on opinions will suffice. And thus, time until the elections will somehow pass. And then we'll see.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2321631,1,akt-sprawiedliwosci-wobec-ziobry-chyba-ostatni-na-razie-nie-odwazy-sie-wrocic-do-polski.read?src=mt

-- BIRTHDAYS: Leonard Krasulski, Andrzej Czerwiński. SUNDAY: Małgorzata Fuszara, Halina Szymańska.
 


Łukasz Mężyk