Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba: What if Braun's party gets 20% in the 2027 elections? Szczęśniak/Sitnicka: Have the ghosts of the past caught up with PiS? Skrzydłowska: Ziobro like Le Pen?

Łukasz Mężyk

-- HAVE THE GHOSTS OF THE PAST CAUGHT UP WITH PIS - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK AND DOMINIKA SITNICKA IN OKO.PRESS IN THEIR POLITICAL PROGRAM ON YOUTUBE: “The decision made during the so-called two-week government of Mateusz Morawiecki has caught up with PiS like a ghost from the past. The plot of land issue strikes at the meticulously built image of PiS as a party of modernizers who primarily care about the state's interests. Interestingly, in just two days, PiS has made a sharp narrative shift on this issue. Initially, Mateusz Morawiecki thanked journalists for revealing the land plot affair. However, PiS politicians later began to argue that there was no scandal.”
https://oko.press/czy-upiory-z-przeszlosci-dopadly-pis-dzialka-cpk-kurski-i-program-na-nowe-czasy

-- THE NOOSE IS TIGHTENING AROUND THE ZIOBRISTS. IT IS EVIDENT THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS REGAINING THE INITIATIVE - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN ONEONET: “Whether the court will actually accept the prosecution's arguments in the cases of Woś and Matecki—not to mention Ziobro—we will find out in a few years. For now, certainly, the accumulating actions of the prosecution against the ziobryści in a short period can give the impression that the government is regaining the initiative. Especially if we add to this all the troubles of the main opposition party: a lacklustre programmatic congress in Katowice, completely overshadowed by the scandal surrounding the sale of a plot of land crucial for the construction of CPK, polls weaker by 5-7 percentage points than their electoral result two years ago, a conflict with Konfederacja, and finally, the rise of Grzegorz Braun's party, which is fishing directly in the PiS electorate.”

-- THE GOVERNMENT CANNOT RELY ON ACCOUNTABILITY SUCCESSES FOR TOO LONG; VOTERS EXPECT A NUMBER OF OTHER THINGS FROM IT - CONTINUES MAJMUREK: “It is very good that the accountability processes are underway, Suwerenna Polska politicians have something to explain, and it is very important from the perspective of public interest that they face penalties if they are proven to have broken the law. However, the government cannot rely on accountability successes for too long; voters expect a number of other things from it as well.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/zbigniew-ziobro-nie-moze-spac-spokojnie-rzad-odzyskuje-inicjatywe/bfl7vd4,452ad802

-- WILL ZBIGNIEW ZIOBRO BE LIKE MARINE LE PEN? - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Ziobro will likely face the same fate. He won't lose trust, but he might lose his freedom or the right to hold public office. This, in turn, is reminiscent of the case of Marine Le Pen, who, after a court ruling concerning financial matters, will likely be unable to run in the upcoming presidential elections if the higher court upholds the verdict. Nothing has made her lose credibility in the eyes of voters. Yet, she has been temporarily deprived of the right to run by the court.”

-- FOR CRIMINAL PROSECUTION, THE NEXT SEJM WOULD HOWEVER HAVE TO AGREE, VOTING ON THE REVOCATION OF A PARLIAMENTARIAN'S IMMUNITY, WHICH IS UNCERTAIN - CONTINUES SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN: “So, will the prosecution's charges lead to Ziobro's accountability? It is not impossible – he could, after all, be convicted later than in two years. However, for criminal prosecution, the next Sejm would have to agree, voting on the revocation of the parliamentarian's immunity, which is uncertain. Or the citizens – by not voting for him in the elections. And that, as we have established, is even more uncertain.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2025/10/30/czy-zbigniew-ziobro-bedzie-jak-marine-le-pen/

-- TELUS HAD FRUIT POUCHES FROM DAWTONA WITH HIS CAMPAIGN SLOGAN - SZYMON JADCZAK IN WP: “As a result of Dawtona's visit in September, personalized fruit puree pouches were prepared for three PiS politicians – with their photos, slogans, and list numbers in the parliamentary elections. For the Minister of Agriculture, the slogan was 'Give a plus for Telus.' The pouches are marked as election material for the Law and Justice Electoral Committee. Each politician paid for the gadgets; invoices were issued to KW PiS and signed by financial representative Tomasz Bartczak. (...) Robert Telus initially claims to have no memory of it. But he eventually manages to find the invoice for the pouches with his image (1500 pieces for PLN 750, so 50 gr per piece). And with the help of his campaign manager, he refreshes his memory. He admits that the idea for the pouches probably arose after a meeting at the Dawtona plant on September 19.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/daj-plusa-na-telusa-jak-dawtona-owocowe-tubki-dla-politykow-pis-robila-7216507501279904a

-- PROF. ANTONI DUDEK RENEWS HIS BET WITH PRIME MINISTER TUSK - AS WRITTEN IN INTERIA: “Of course, I have not received any confirmation that Tusk accepts the bet, and most likely, I will not get one. The Prime Minister was not interested in any specific bet but in another demonstration of strength and self-confidence. Without them, he would not have survived as a political leader even until the end of the current year. (...) Firstly, for many months, polls – even the one in which Civic Coalition had over 38% support – have clearly indicated that more voters intend to vote for PiS, Konfederacja, and 'Korona' than for the formations creating the current governing coalition. This somewhat resembles the situation before the 2023 parliamentary elections, in which PiS was consistently the leader in polls and even won the vote on October 15, still possessing the largest club in the Sejm today, but failed to retain power.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-moj-zaklad-z-premierem,nId,22448899

-- AND WHAT IF GRZEGORZ BRAUN'S PARTY GETS 20% OF THE VOTE IN THE 2027 ELECTIONS? - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN PLUS/MINUS RP: “I would point out that the radicalization of the right may continue. What if, in two years, Grzegorz Braun's party achieves 20%? A party that hates the EU as much as America – that would be a fitting punchline to the absurd dispute between PiS and Tusk and Sikorski about who is our better ally. An anti-Western and anti-NATO party. Exposing us to total conflict with Jewish communities, and at the same time to weakness against Putin's imperialism. It could, of course, just as easily turn out to be an ephemeral phenomenon. Doomed by such bizarre gaffes of its over-excitable leader as his questioning the existence of gas chambers during World War II. But are the main players on the Polish stage doing a lot to ensure it a constant supply of fuel?”

-- IN DISCUSSIONS AT THE PIS CONGRESS, ONE COULD FIND REAL FERMENT AND REAL CONCERN ABOUT THE STATE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS - ZAREMBA POINTS TO GLINSKI'S PROJECT OF LARGE-SCALE REVITALIZATION OF MONUMENTS IN WESTERN POLAND: “On the other hand, observers may complain about the monotony or the 'rough' nature of Kaczyński's party's message. But in these discussions, one could find real ferment and real concern about the state of public affairs. Let's take one example. Under the auspices of Gliński himself, the 'Grand Revitalization and Grand Rooting' project was announced in Katowice. An attempt was made to push it through at the very end of the term that ended with the lost elections – in 2023. It foresees comprehensive work on the renovation and revitalization of historical sites using the latest technologies. Special emphasis is placed on the historical heritage in the so-called recovered territories. It will cost money, but the goal is to double tourism revenue, although, of course, also to strengthen national identity. For the current government, this is an unnecessary abstraction, and for Mentzen, who bellows in the interest of business, probably too.”

-- PIS SHOWED THAT AT THE MOMENT OF CERTAIN PROGRAMMATIC ADVANTAGE, IT CAN TRIP OVER ITS OWN FEET - STILL ZAREMBA: “On the other hand, PiS showed that at the moment of certain programmatic advantage, it can trip over its own feet. Such is the nature of the scandal surrounding the state land sold by officials of a PiS minister of agriculture to a private company, even though it was intended for the construction of CPK.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art43260731-a-jesli-partia-grzegorza-brauna-bedzie-miala-20-proc-glosow-w-wyborach-2027

-- ŻUREK'S MYSTERIOUS ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL: WE HAVE A LEGAL IDEA HOW TO CHANGE IT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- STATE OF PLAY RETURNS ON MONDAY.

-- ONE YEAR AGO, RENATA ŁĘSKA PASSED AWAY. 

-- PAWEŁ ADAMOWICZ WOULD HAVE TURNED 60 ON SUNDAY. Jerzy Osiatyński 86.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Tyrna, Tadeusz Sobolewski, Tadeusz Aziewicz, Paweł Krzykowski, SATURDAY: Konrad Piasecki, Andrzej Romanek. SUNDAY: Grażyna Staniszewska, Marlena Maląg, Jan Grabiec, Tomasz Zdzikot.
 


Łukasz Mężyk