Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Danielewski: Speculation about a potential prime ministerial change can be put down to fairy tales, Majmurek: The Platform showed its worst side… and PiS wasn’t any better

Łukasz Mężyk

-- LEŚKIEWICZ: WE EXPECT CLEAR SIGNALS FROM KYIV. PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY SHOULD APPEAR IN POLAND, PRZYDACZ: WE HAVEN’T RECEIVED ANY MINUTES FROM TUSK’S CONVERSATIONS SINCE AUGUST - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- TUSK MISSED THE TRUTH CLAIMING THE MATTER IS IN THE PROSECUTOR’S OFFICE "ACCORDING TO PROCEDURES". BECAUSE THE INVESTIGATION WAS ONLY INITIATED ON MONDAY, THE DAY OF WP’S PUBLICATION - SZYMON JADCZAK: “The prosecutor’s office waited three months to initiate an investigation. During this time, investigators might have lost access to crucial call detail records. Donald Tusk missed the truth claiming the matter is in the prosecutor’s office 'according to procedures'. Because the investigation was only initiated on Monday, the day of our publication. Although Justice Minister Waldemar Żurek wrote about the prosecutor’s office calmly gathering material, crucial documents for clarifying the matter have not been secured to this day.”

-- THEY WAITED ALMOST 600 DAYS TO FILE A REPORT - CONTINUES JADCZAK: “Because Maciej Lasek and the CPK authorities waited almost 600 days to file a report with the prosecutor’s office, some data crucial for clarifying this matter may have been lost. According to the Electronic Communications Law, the retention of telecommunications data (i.e., the obligation for operators to store them and the possibility of making them available to services and the prosecutor’s office) lasts for 12 months. So, it’s already too late to obtain, for example, call detail records or location data of the people involved in this story.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/bledy-polprawdy-zaniedbania-ujawniamy-jak-rzad-tuska-wyjasnial-sprawe-dzialki-dla-cpk-7215825903553120a

-- JADCZAK ASKS ON X: Why did Waldemar Żurek say they weren't informing about this matter because prosecutors were calmly gathering material, even though they weren't? Why did Maciej Lasek and the CPK president wait to file a report until crucial call detail records were lost?
https://x.com/SzJadczak/status/1983423041829798118

-- WITH ITS PROGRAM CONGRESS, PIS WANTED TO HIDE THE SKELETONS FROM EIGHT YEARS OF GOVERNMENT IN THE CLOSET, BUT ONE SPECTACULARLY FELL OUT - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “This propaganda move was punctured like a balloon. PiS desperately wanted to present itself as a party that fulfills promises, has a program, and discusses the future to mend its image and distance itself from the skeletons hidden in the closet during its eight years in power. And now, one of those skeletons has spectacularly fallen to the floor.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43247471-michal-szuldrzynski-dlaczego-afera-z-cpk-jest-smiertelnie-niebezpieczna-dla-pis-cztery-powody

-- JACEK HARŁUKOWICZ DESCRIBES A PATRIOTIC HOUSE PARTY DURING THE PIS CONGRESS, WHERE SERVICE OFFICIALS FEASTED WITH POLITICIANS AND BUSINESSMEN AGAINST WHOM THE SERVICES WERE CONDUCTING OPERATIONS - ONET: https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/jak-agenci-sluzb-specjalnych-z-czasow-pis-pili-ze-swoimi-figurantami-ujawniamy-kulisy/r1dmq1g,79cfc278

-- KURSZKI, LICHOCKA, PRZYŁĘBSKA, OBAJTEK, ZIOBRO, BŁASZCZAK, MACIEREWICZ AND OTHERS ARE LIKE A TRUE HALLOWEEN GHOST PROCESSION FOR THE OCTOBER 15 VOTERS - JERZY BACZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Kaczyński’s increasingly brutal anti-Western philippics, and the positioning of figures like Kurski, Lichocka, Przyłębska, Obajtek, Ziobro, Błaszczak, Macierewicz, and others in Katowice as heralds of the future (for the voters of October 15, a true Halloween ghost procession) – is a fantastic stimulus for mobilizing a frustrated electorate.”

-- SPACE FOR GATHERING VOTES AFTER TRZASKOWSKI, MEANING EVEN AROUND 45-50 PERCENT, AT THE START OF A LONG ELECTION CAMPAIGN, STRENGTHS AND CHANCES ARE BALANCING. A GLIMPSE OF SPRING IN AUTUMN? - CONTINUES THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The slogan of building a common 'anti-fascist front' against the far-right, which wants to usurp and 'take' the state, gives the Civic Coalition space to gather votes after Trzaskowski, meaning even around 45-50 percent. And a real chance of winning the election. The weekend of three hundred panels brought no programmatic revelations, but showed that at the start of a long election campaign, strengths and chances are balancing. A glimpse of spring in autumn?”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2320099,1,kto-chce-nam-zabrac-panstwo

-- TUSK SYMBOLICALLY CONCLUDED THE MOURNING FOR TRZASKOWSKI’S DEFEAT - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Tusk used the unification of the Civic Coalition for collective psychotherapy. He symbolically concluded the mourning for Trzaskowski’s defeat by decreeing a dictatorship of faith and hope.”

-- SPECULATION ABOUT A POTENTIAL PRIME MINISTERIAL CHANGE CAN BE PUT DOWN TO FAIRY TALES - CONTINUES DANIELEWSKI: “After the KO convention, speculation about a potential prime ministerial change before the elections can be put down to fairy tales: after Tusk’s speech, no one could have had any doubts that there was only one leader of the Coalition, and he would lead it to the elections, both as party leader and as head of government. Tusk jokingly called himself the 'beloved chairman' during the convention and – judging by the audience's reaction – like many jokes, this one was not far from the truth.”

-- TUSK HAS CLEARED HIS AHEAD FOR POTENTIAL TALKS ABOUT A BROAD COALITION - STILL DANIELEWSKI: “By annexing Nowoczesna and Inicjatywa Polska, the head of government has just cleared his ahead for potential talks about a broad coalition: it is easier to negotiate the shape of candidate lists for MPs between four, not six parties. The Civic Coalition as one cohesive formation gains an even more hegemonic position.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2320119,1,silni-razem-tusk-zbiera-druzyne-po-przegranej-polowie-meczu-czy-bedzie-remontada.read

-- IN OCTOBER, CONTROVERSY IN THE PUBLIC RECEPTION OF THE PRIME MINISTER SLIGHTLY INCREASED - WRITE CBOS ANALYSTS: “One-third of respondents declare satisfaction with Donald Tusk holding the position of head of government (33%, an increase of 1 point). At the same time, the number of people who are not satisfied with this has increased (57%, an increase of 2 points).”

-- AMONG UNDECIDED VOTERS, THE MAJORITY ARE OPPONENTS OF THE PRIME MINISTER - CONTINUES CBOS: “Among undecided voters, the majority are opponents of the prime minister (60%); only one in five of them declares satisfaction with the fact that Donald Tusk is the Prime Minister (20%).”
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=7104

-- I DO NOT RULE OUT THAT MENTZEN’S BACKING WILL PUSH HIM TOWARDS A COALITION EVEN WITH TUSK - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH PIOTR OLEJARCZYK ON ONET: “I know that there will be significant grassroots pressure within his party. Pressure along the lines of: 'Sławek, we can’t be in opposition indefinitely.' Please note, this will be Konfederacja’s third term in the Sejm. And after eight years of sitting in the Sejm, will Konfederacja only criticize again? I do not rule out that Mentzen’s backing will push him towards a coalition even with Tusk.”

-- I DO NOT RULE OUT THAT AFTER THE ELECTIONS THIS MAY FALL APART - CONTINUES PROF. DUDEK ON ONET: “The fate of Konfederacja is not clear to me. Perhaps two parties will emerge in its place. That is, they already exist, because there is the National Movement and New Hope. They will probably manage to go to the elections together because a common interest dictates it. But I do not rule out that after the elections this may fall apart.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/koalicja-nie-bedzie-miala-z-kim-rzadzic-nastapi-zderzenie-prezydenta-z-kaczynskim/jwt67gh,79cfc278

-- KACZYŃSKI MUST ADAPT TO NEW, MORE DIFFICULT REALITIES ON THE RIGHT, THE HIGHWAY TO VICTORY HAS TURNED INTO A WINDING PATH - WOJCIECH SZACKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Autumn 2025 is a dangerous time for PiS. The euphoria after Nawrocki's victory has ended. Polls are not growing, the party occasionally lands below 30% and is increasingly often overtaken by KO. The beginning of the offensive – the rally against illegal immigration announced since summer – turned out to be a flop. The demonstration on October 11 would have been forgotten by now – few people, for that matter, bothered to attend it – if not for Robert Bąkiewicz’s somewhat terrifying and somewhat foolish performance, who among paper crows shouted something about pulling out weeds and the need to use napalm on the way to Grunwald. And PiS's fight against immigrants was mocked not only by Tusk but also by Konfederacja.”

-- WORSE FOR KACZYŃSKI, OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS, MORE THAN 500,000 VOTERS WILL ENTER THE ELECTORAL MARKET, THE VAST MAJORITY OF WHOM WILL BE OUT OF PIS’S REACH - CONTINUES SZACKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Kaczyński doesn't have many tools to win back Mentzen's and Braun's electorate. Merely highlighting Bąkiewicz and Czarnak will not be enough. PiS doesn't know how to speak to the young; changing direction would be risky, as it would threaten the loss of its base, meaning several million older voters loyal to Kaczyński. The division of the right is very generational. What's worse for Kaczyński is that over the next two years, more than 500,000 voters will enter the electoral market, the vast majority of whom will be beyond PiS’s reach, and a significant percentage will join Konfederacja. At the same time, for natural reasons, some supporters of the old right will pass away. This won't be a revolution, but 2-3 percentage points (which we are talking about here) will affect the balance of power on the right.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2320123,1,kaczynski-zgubil-pierscien-wladzy-widac-kryzys-autostrada-do-zwyciestwa-zamienila-sie-w-kreta-drozke.read

-- OVER THE WEEKEND, THE PLATFORM SHOWED ITS WORST SIDE… AND PIS WASN’T ANY BETTER - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Neither of the two largest parties presented an idea to escape their political crisis. The Platform, in fact, showed its worst side, as a conservative party of power, not particularly interested in anything else and incapable of defending basic liberal principles. At the same time, KO has the good fortune that the main alternative to its rule is PiS. And PiS showed itself in an equally uninteresting light over the weekend as KO. The public could, among other things, witness the discussion about the future of public media with Jacek Kurski – recalling why they so strongly wanted to remove this party from power in 2023.”

-- AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF PIS, TUSK CAN ACTUALLY LOOK NOT SO BAD - MAJMUREK’S CONCLUSION: “At the congress, no new idea, narrative, or environment appeared that wasn't already present in PiS or its orbit for a long time. Against this backdrop, Tusk, who was eating appetizers, criticizing the ECPC, and throwing away the two-term limit, can actually not look too bad.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/koniec-platformy-obywatelskiej-czas-na-koalicje-obywatelska-to-oficjalne/

-- BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Fedorowicz, Wojciech Kolarski (turns 53), Henryka Bochniarz, Tomasz Nałęcz, Waldemar Witkowski.


Łukasz Mężyk