Today's State of Play

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Głowacki: October 15th is Nothing to Celebrate, Onet: We posit that this is Tusk's Last Term, Stankiewicz: The Prime Minister is Leading His Camp to Loss of Power

-- A POTENT LOBBY IS PUSHING ALCOHOL EVERYWHERE. THE MARKET HAS BEGUN TO DOMINATE THE STATE - SAYS DR JACEK MOSKALEWICZ, EXPERT IN THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF ADDICTIONS, IN AN INTERVIEW WITH SŁAWOMIR ZAGÓRSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “A few companies, let's say ten, probably grab more than half of all alcohol turnover, and they also conduct global alcohol policy. They have ready-made policy packages that they send to countries, especially where the state is too weak to resist the great fortune that flows through the alcohol industry. They are capable of bribing everyone.”

-- THERE IS A DOWNWARD TREND EVERYWHERE REGARDING EMERGENCY ROOM VISITS AND CRIME - DR JACEK MOSKALEWICZ CONTINUES TO ZAGÓRSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “We systematically collected data. We also examined long time series. Not only from the introduction of restrictions, but 8 years before and 5 years after their introduction. And everywhere there is a downward trend concerning emergency room visits and crime. In some cities, we even noticed a decrease in car accidents. This was difficult to study because, for example, restrictions were introduced in 2018, and in 2020 there was COVID and lockdown. But everywhere, in all facilities, the indicators fell. The City Guard, the Police. Everything fell everywhere.”

-- AND SUDDENLY MEN'S MORTALITY PLUMMETED. OVERALL MORTALITY, NOT JUST ALCOHOL-RELATED. SO IT WORKS AND WE SHOULD LEARN FROM THE LITHUANIANS - DR MOSKALEWICZ FURTHER STATES TO ZAGÓRSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Lithuanians, in addition to limiting sales hours and the number of sales points, also raised the age at which one can buy alcohol to 21. They banned advertising and various forms of promotion. And that's all. And suddenly men's mortality plummeted. Overall mortality, not just alcohol-related. So it works, and we should learn from the Lithuanians. I'm not saying from the Russians, because they did the same and also achieved spectacular results regarding the decrease in alcohol-related health problems.”
https://oko.press/przemysl-alkoholowy-jest-w-stanie-przekupic-wszystkich-ekspert

-- ABANDONED HOPE, OR WHY THIS TIME ON OCTOBER 15TH THERE IS NOTHING TO CELEBRATE - WITOLD GŁOWACKI IN OKO.PRESS: “The leading politicians of the October 15th Coalition have abandoned the hopes and values with which their voters went to the polls two years ago. Today they are paying a heavy price for it.”

-- THEY REACTIVELY SUBMIT TO THE NARRATIVES OF THE RIGHT WING, THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT ABANDONING HOPE LOOKS LIKE - GŁOWACKI CONTINUES IN OKO.PRESS: “For months, or more precisely, since the end of 2024, the voters of the October 15th Coalition parties have been watching, more or less helplessly, as the most important politicians of their camp reactively submit to the narratives of the right wing. This is exactly what abandoning hope looks like.”

-- THE VOTERS OF THE OCTOBER 15TH COALITION WOULD CERTAINLY LIKE TO REGAIN HOPE - GŁOWACKI FURTHER IN OKO.PRESS: “Scolding battered coalition partners can always be a slightly masochistic entertainment that the prime minister should not refuse, but it would be much more effective to send the coalition's spin doctors on study visits to Norway and Romania and have them sit down with a pencil and without ChatGPT for a thorough reading of Eurobarometer and other real, pan-European trend studies. The voters of the October 15th Coalition would certainly like to regain hope.”
https://oko.press/porzucona-nadzieja-czyli-dlaczego-tym-razem-15-pazdziernika-nie-ma-czego-swietowac

-- WE POSIT THAT THIS IS TUSK'S LAST TERM - ONET JOURNALISTS IN THE STAN WYJĄTKOWY PODCAST: “The Prime Minister has a grim prospect. He will not fulfill any major election promises anymore. In addition, he is unable to reignite the great anti-PiS wave that brought him to power in 2023. Therefore, we posit that this is Tusk's last term as prime minister.”

-- DESPITE POOR PERSONAL POLLS, TUSK STILL CONSIDERS HIMSELF A POLITICAL MAESTRO - CONTINUES ONET: “Our sources even claim that Tusk is considering his resignation and appointing Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski as prime minister. But we wouldn't bet money on it. Tusk, despite poor personal polls, still considers himself a political maestro, unmatched by anyone.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/stan-wyjatkowy-wydanie-specjalne-czy-tusk-odda-teke-premiera-sikorskiemu/tstxcpe,79cfc278

-- THE PRIME MINISTER IS LEADING HIS CAMP TO LOSS OF POWER - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN ONET: “Prime Minister Donald Tusk has done a lot to never win any elections again. (...) The Prime Minister is clearly different from when he first led the government in 2007-2014. Different – weaker, without energy and ideas.”

-- IN CLOSED MEETINGS, TUSK REPEATED THAT PIS WOULD NEVER RETURN TO POWER - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES IN ONET: “However, in closed meetings, Tusk repeated that PiS would never return to power. The Prime Minister acted as if he had achieved the ultimate goal, as if this was the end of the mission, the grand finale of the two-decade war with Kaczyński. There were no grounds for this. In the spring of 2024, in local government elections – which resemble parliamentary elections – PiS won 34.3% to 30.6%. In the European elections in the summer of 2024, KO narrowly defeated PiS by less than 1 percentage point.”

-- IT QUICKLY TURNED OUT THAT TUSK HAS NO GOVERNING PLAN, AS IF HE HIMSELF WAS SURPRISED BY PIS'S REMOVAL FROM POWER - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ AGAIN IN ONET: “It quickly turned out that Tusk has no plan for governing or for accountability. And he certainly didn't have a comprehensive plan for taking over the state and making urgent decisions like Kaczyński did when he regained power in 2015 after two terms of the Civic Platform government. From today's perspective, it looks as if Tusk himself was surprised by PiS's removal from power – referring to the coalition's program, the composition of the government, and the accountability of PiS, including proceedings against institutions that Kaczyński staffed with his cronies before handing over power and which he secured with legal ramparts.”

-- IT IS HARD TO FIND BETTER PROOF THAT THE PRIME MINISTER IS COMPLETELY LOST - STATES STANKIEWICZ: “Tusk's latest idea is to promise a 60,000 PLN tax-free allowance in the next election campaign. It is hard to find better proof that the prime minister is completely lost.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/winy-donalda-tuska-premier-prowadzi-swoj-oboz-do-utraty-wladzy-opinia/kkcbbgk,79cfc278

-- DONALD TUSK ADMITS TO VOTERS THAT HIS GOVERNMENT HAS NOT ACHIEVED MUCH - PAULINA PACUŁA IN OKO.PRESS: “Donald Tusk admits to voters that his government has not achieved much – both due to friction within the coalition and resistance from the Presidential Palace.”
https://oko.press/na-zywo/na-zywo-relacja/donald-tusk-te-dwa-lata-nie-byly-proste-ale-nie-kapitulujemy

-- TWO YEARS AFTER THE ELECTIONS, WITHOUT A SENSE OF INFLUENCE, WITHOUT DIRECTION, WITHOUT MEANING - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “A sense of influence on reality is crucial for civic engagement, social activity, and a sense of patriotic fulfillment. Since the November 2023 elections, the sense of influence in Poland has dropped by 20 percentage points, returning to the level from the deepest PiS era.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art43180901-zuzanna-dabrowska-dwa-lata-po-wyborach-bez-poczucia-wplywu-bez-trybu-bez-sensu

-- 52 PERCENT OF POLES BELIEVE DONALD TUSK SHOULD RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER - ACCORDING TO A POLL BY THE POLLSTER RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR SE: “As many as 52% of us want the PO leader to stop being prime minister – according to a poll by the Pollster Research Institute. Only 34% of respondents want Tusk to continue leading the government, and 14% of respondents have no opinion on the matter.”

-- MOST RESPONDENTS GIVE THE PRIME MINISTER A FAILING GRADE: “The largest group of respondents gave Prime Minister Donald Tusk a failing grade (33%). 15% of respondents gave the head of government a ‘poor’ grade (2). According to 16% of respondents, Tusk deserved a ‘satisfactory’ grade, and according to 17%, a ‘good’ grade. 11% of Poles give the head of government a ‘very good’ rating, and 5% of those participating in the survey gave Donald Tusk an ‘excellent’ rating.”
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/czy-donald-tusk-powinien-odejsc-ze-stanowiska-premiera-znamy-opinie-polakow-aa-KJbr-HixL-Zdyp.html

-- "FOR EXAMPLE, ISSUES OF CREDIBILITY IN THE MARKETS" - SZŁAPKA EMBARRASSED AFTER PIASECKI'S QUESTION ABOUT WHAT THE GOVERNMENT DID TO REDUCE INFLATION - 300LIVEhttps://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Wąsik, Michał Kuczmierowski, Tomasz Cimoszewicz, Jerzy Kwieciński, Jarosław Katulski.