state of play: 06/09/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Is RASP Turning its Back on Tusk and Lewandowski?
-- LEWY CELEBRATES WHILE THE SQUAD STRUGGLES. FACT INVESTIGATES WHAT OUR 'MENTALLY FATIGUED STRIKER' IS UP TO - Fakt Cover.
-- IS THIS THE END FOR TUSK? - Newsweek Cover.
-- TUSK NEEDS A GENIUS PLAN, AND PROBLEMS ARE PILLING UP. "HE NO LONGER FEELS POLITICS LIKE HE USED TO" - DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK: “Even from within his own party, Tusk has heard that his time is up, his leadership is illusory, and it’s time to think about succession. – He’s aged, he no longer feels politics like he used to. His entry into the campaign only harmed Rafał. Perhaps if he hadn’t given those few interviews, things would be a little better – KO politicians wonder, regardless of faction.”
-- THE SITUATION IS REPEATING ITSELF FROM THE DECLINE OF HIS FIRST GOVERNMENT IN 2012-2013 - DŁUGOSZ CONTINUES IN NEWSWEEK: “His closest associates from the Prime Minister’s chancellery – Paweł Graś, Igor Ostachowicz, or Agnieszka Rucińska – sometimes offer advice, but mostly they listen. The situation is repeating itself from the decline of his first government in 2012-2013 – again, there is no one to say directly: 'Donald, maybe you’re wrong, you just don’t feel the voter anymore, you don’t understand what politics is about in the age of Facebook and TikTok. We need to bring in specialists.'
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/donald-tusk-potrzebuje-genialnego-planu-juz-nie-czuje-polityki-jak-kiedys/6zgyz3z
-- TRZASKOWSKI SHOULD HAVE COMPLAINTS AGAINST TUSK - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN CONVERSATION WITH PAWEŁ FIGURSKI ON WP:
“- Rafał Trzaskowski stated after the elections that he has no complaints against the Prime Minister.
- And what should he say?
- Should he have them?
- He probably has reasons to.
- Senseless?
- Yes. Things like that are done by the opposition. The opposition organizes large rallies and mobilizes. And if such a march was necessary, the Prime Minister shouldn’t have organized it. It was enough to look at any trust poll for politicians, at government ratings. For half a year, it was known that the government had poor ratings. In such circumstances, the government should keep quiet, and the campaign team should convince people that they are electing a reviewer of the government.”
-- AFTER ALL, THE KEY MOTIVE FOR THE KONFEDERACJA ELECTORATE WAS VOTING AGAINST DONALD TUSK. THIS ALSO MOBILIZES PIS VOTERS - PROF. FLIS CONTINUES ON WP: “After all, the key motive for the Konfederacja electorate was voting against Donald Tusk. This also mobilizes Law and Justice voters, who have their own 'eight stars' in the cry: 'Don’t be afraid of Tusk.' Incidentally, a slogan based on inciting sexual violence is somehow not very consistent with Christian values.”
-- I PREDICT SUCCESS ON THE SCALE OF THE LAST ONE - PROF. FLIS ANSWERS FIGURSKI’S QUESTION: Will the campaign based on scaring people with PiS, Konfederacja, and fascists not work in 2027? “ - That would indeed be a great tactic. I predict success – on the scale of the elections that have just concluded. But seriously, the campaign in two years cannot focus on the competitors' weaknesses, but on their strengths. They need to gather significantly more support than before.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/bezsensowny-marsz-i-pomoc-tuska-prof-flis-o-przyczynach-porazki-trzaskowskiego-7165133086571424a
-- TUSK, ALONG WITH RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI, RECEIVED A RED CARD FROM THE VOTERS, AND NOW HE WILL OBVIOUSLY INSIST THAT HE WON'T LEAVE THE FIELD, EVEN THOUGH HE CAN - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK in the program "Dudek about politics" on the "Super Express" channel: “Donald Tusk believes that if he replaces a few ministers, this government will suddenly start acting more energetically than before. As if he doesn’t understand, or is pretending because he knows perfectly well, that the face of the government is the Prime Minister, and even if he had, I don’t know, excellently working ministers, if he himself is unpopular, he won’t drive this government forward. Well, Donald Tusk, along with Rafał Trzaskowski, received a red card from the voters, and now he will, of course, insist that he won’t leave the field, even though he can.”
-- THIS IS WHAT THE FALL OF A POLITICIAN LOOKS LIKE, IN THIS CASE DONALD TUSK - PROF. DUDEK CONTINUES: “Prime Minister Tusk says they have some ideas. Where were these ideas, that they didn’t help Trzaskowski? This is what the fall of a politician looks like, in this case Donald Tusk. The question is whether this fall will happen quickly, or will we observe it for two years?”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/najpierw-krytykowal-nawrockiego-teraz-tuska-tak-wyglada-upadek-7165525606386592a
-- IF THIS IS WHAT A NEW OPENING LOOKS LIKE, THEN PIS CAN ALREADY BE CHILLING THE CHAMPAGNE - JAKUB MAJMUREK ON THE NEWSWEEK PORTAL: “The quarrels were accompanied by a series of image blunders by the ruling camp, reinforcing the feeling that this arrangement is already entering its final political phase. (...) A bigger problem is the minimum wage war, which was reported by the money.pl portal. The Ministry of Labor, headed by Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk from New Left, wanted an increase of PLN 300. Andrzej Domański, on the other hand, proposed an increase of PLN 4.7. This would be the lowest minimum wage increase since 2002. One can find substantive arguments for such a low increase, such as the fact that the minimum wage has increased in leaps and bounds in recent years, and more and more people earn it, which doesn't necessarily create a economically rational salary structure, but announcing at this point that the minimum wage will increase by less than PLN 5 gross is political suicide.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/dluga-lista-bledow-koalicji-15-pazdziernika-nowe-otwarcie-pis-juz-moze-mrozic/zlnxey7,452ad802
-- CONTRARY TO THE GOVERNMENT'S DECLARATIONS, THERE IS NO CHANCE THAT POLAND WILL SIGN AN AGREEMENT FOR THE PURCHASE OF SUBMARINES BY THE END OF THE YEAR - MACIEJ MIŁOSZ IN RZ: “There isn’t even a guarantee anymore that this year we will choose the country from which we want to buy them.”
https://radar.rp.pl/modernizacja-sil-zbrojnych/art42484191-okrety-podwodne-znow-podtopione-spektakularna-porazka-programu-orka
-- A PETITION TO RECOUNT THE VOTES? MASTALEREK: THE SITUATION RIDICULES THIS GOVERNMENT. I'M SURPRISED TUSK AGREES TO THIS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/06/09/
-- FOR NOW, ONE MUST APPROACH THIS INFORMATION CALMLY. COLLECT DATA, ANALYZE HOW MUCH IT COULD HAVE INFLUENCED THE FINAL RESULT - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “A few days after the results were announced, it turns out that the votes for Nawrocki were falsified. For now, one must approach this information calmly. Collect data, analyze how much it could have influenced the final result. But protests and accusations of forgery, calls for a recount or even new elections will only be justified when the concerns are confirmed and the scale of the abuses is significant. The edifice of Polish democracy is too undermined to violate its key foundation without a valid reason.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32006136,pomylki-wyborcze-demokracja-w-dniach-ciezkiej-proby.html
-- DO NOT DO THIS UNDER THE PRESSURE OF CONSPIRACY THEORISTS, BUT OUT OF COMMON SENSE AND THE PRINCIPLES OF DEMOCRACY - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “I have no doubt that every reported irregularity must be checked. And all doubts must be clarified. But this should not be done under the pressure of conspiracy theorists, but out of common sense and the principles of democracy. Otherwise, we are pushing our democracy into very dangerous territories.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42488741-michal-szuldrzynski-jak-podwazyc-wynik-wyborow-nie-podwazajac-go-czyli-teorie-spiskowe-po-obu-stronach-sporu
-- THE WONDERFUL EWA DAŁKOWSKA HAS PASSED AWAY. Just a month ago, she played Elizabeth Costello in Krzysztof Warlikowski’s theatre. Farewell, Queen of Naples and Duchess of Parma!
https://nowyteatr.org/pl/aktualnosci/odeszla-ewa-dalkowska
-- BIRTHDAYS: Irena Lipowicz.
live
5 hours
8 min
„Stalinists, then Communists, operated in exactly the same way.” — Jaki on accusations against Ziobro
17 min
How Will PSL MPs Vote on the Sejm Marshal Position for Czarzasty? Zgorzelski Responds
23 min
„They Came for Two Weeks, Pulled a Swindle, and Then Tried to Pin It on Smolarz” — Zgorzelski Criticizes PiS and Praises KOWR Head
29 min
„Let's See What Kind of Powerhouse You Are” — Zgorzelski to Ziobro Before Parliamentary Committee Meeting
93 min
Müller: ETS2 Should Be Abolished, Not Postponed
3 hours
Müller Denies Morawiecki as Prime Minister Could Have Known About CPK Land Plot
3 hours
„Receipts on the table. So far, I haven’t seen a document signed by Telus.” — Müller to the Prime Minister and Government Spokesperson
5 hours
„The Conclusions Will Be Used in the President’s Chancellery’s Work.” — Szefernaker on Today’s Expert Meeting
6 hours
Monetary Policy Council Decides on Interest Rates
state of play
STATE OF PLAY: PiS Suffers Spectacular Setback, Baranowska: PiS Lacks a Plan to Exit Defensive Stance, Janicki: Has Tusk's Camp's Depression Passed? The Game is Back On
state of play
today
State of Play: GW and RMF on Cancelled Surgeries, Helsinki Foundation on Żurek's Project: Little in Common with Rule of Law, Szułdrzyński: Konfederacja Benefits from "PiS-PO One Evil"
state of play
yesterday
STATE OF PLAY: Prof. Flis on Gruszczyński: The Beneficiaries of Reckonings Aren't the Government, but Braun and Konfederacja. Duma: Campaign Themes No Longer Resonate, Res Futura: 58% Online Support Rymanowski
state of play
11/03/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba: What if Braun's party gets 20% in the 2027 elections? Szczęśniak/Sitnicka: Have the ghosts of the past caught up with PiS? Skrzydłowska: Ziobro like Le Pen?
state of play
10/31/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Politico on the New Wave of Ukrainian Refugees in Poland and Germany, Machowski: Many Coalition Lists Will Hand Power to the Right
state of play
10/30/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Danielewski: Speculation about a potential prime ministerial change can be put down to fairy tales, Majmurek: The Platform showed its worst side… and PiS wasn’t any better
state of play
10/29/2025