-- CBOS PRESENTS RESEARCH-BASED FORECASTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THESE ELECTIONS. The CBOS analyst team has been strengthened by, among others, Dominik Batorski, a sociologist and data expert, founder of Sotrender, a highly respected company that has been monitoring online trends for years. The other CBOS analysts are: Ireneusz Sadowski, Michał Feliksiak, Zbigniew Marczewski, Beata Roguska, and Michał Wenzel. -- ESTIMATED TURNOUT IS 71.3%. AT THIS LEVEL, THE RESULTS INDICATE THAT RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF WINNING - WRITE CBOS ANALYSTS: “In estimating the result, we used a model based on analytical weights and multiple imputation of data gaps using multinomial logistic regression (this allows for predicting vote distribution based on respondents’ socio-demographic characteristics, previous electoral decisions, and opinions about each candidate). The estimated turnout is 71.3%. At this level, the results indicate that Rafał Trzaskowski has slightly higher chances of winning, with – according to our estimate – 50.3% of voters (with a confidence interval from 46.0% to 54.7%) voting for him. Karol Nawrocki will receive 49.7% support (with a confidence interval from 45.3% to 54.0%).” -- THIS MEANS THAT THE CERTAINTY OF NAMING THE WINNER OF THE SECOND ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS RELATIVELY LOW - CONCLUDE CBOS ANALYSTS. https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/flashe_tekst.php?nr=33/2025 -- 74.38% - THIS WAS THE TURNOUT FOR THE 2023 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. -- PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 1990: Wałęsa-Tymiński-Mazowiecki-Cimoszewicz - 1st round 60.63%, 2nd round: 53.40%. -- PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 1995 Kwaśniewski-Wałęsa-Kuroń: 64.70%, 2nd round: 68.23%. -- PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2000 Kwaśniewski in the 1st round: 61.12%. -- PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2005 Tusk, Kaczyński, Lepper: 49.74%, 2nd round: 50.99%. -- PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2010 after the Smolensk catastrophe: 54.94%, 2nd round: 55.31%. -- PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2015 Komorowski, Duda: 48.96%, 2nd round: 55.34%. -- PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2020 Duda, Trzaskowski, Hołownia: 64.51%, 2nd round: 68.18%. -- OTHER COMPANIES ESTIMATE TURNOUT DIFFERENTLY THAN CBOS'S 71.3%: IPSOS FOR TVP (IN LIQUIDATION): 64% IPSOS FOR OKO.PRESS: 66% IBRIS FOR ONET: 71.1% of people decidedly expressed their intention to vote. Another 5.4% answered "rather yes". Totaling 76.5%. OPINIA24 FOR TVN: 74% United Surveys for WP: 65.2% decided, 8.4% declared they "rather" would participate (73.6). -- LATEST POLLS: IBRiS for Polsat: Trzaskowski leads by 1 point. OGB for WP: Nawrocki leads by 1.2 points. Onet forecast: Trzaskowski leads by 0.2 points. Ipsos/TVP: Trzaskowski leads by 1 point. CBOS forecast: Trzaskowski leads by 0.6 points. Opinia24/TVN24: Trzaskowski leads by 1.1 points. Pollster/SE: Trzaskowski leads by 2.4 points. Ipsos/Oko: Trzaskowski leads by 1 point. IBRiS/Onet: Trzaskowski leads by 1.7 points. Opinia24/RadioZet: Trzaskowski leads by 3 points. -- IF THIS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OVERSEAS REGISTRATIONS AND THE NUMBER OF VOTERS HOLDS, WE CAN PREDICT THAT TURNOUT WILL EXCEED 74%, PERHAPS EVEN 75% - SAYS PROF. ADAM GENDŹWIŁŁ, SOCIOLOGIST AND POLITICAL SCIENTIST AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WARSAW IN AN INTERVIEW WITH GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK ON MONEY.PL: “And we have a record number of registrations abroad – about 700,000 people – which indicates high mobilization. If this relationship between registrations abroad and the number of voters holds, we can predict that turnout will exceed 74%, perhaps even 75%. Everything indicates that surpassing the record level from October 2023 is within the reach of Polish voters.” -- GEOGRAPHICALLY, THIS MOBILIZATION GAP IS LARGER IN LARGE CITIES AND WESTERN POLAND - THIS IS AN ELECTORATE MORE FAVORABLE TO TRZASKOWSKI - CONTINUES PROF. ADAM GENDŹWIŁŁ ON MONEY: “Geographically, this mobilization gap is larger in large cities and western Poland – this is an electorate more favorable to Trzaskowski. We also identified a 'shortage' of Third Way voters in the first-round exit poll – either they weren't at the polling stations, or they didn't admit to voting for that party.” -- IF WE EXPECT TURNOUT TO OSCILLATE AROUND 74%, THAT MEANS APPROXIMATELY 2 MILLION ADDITIONAL VOTERS IN THE SECOND ROUND - CONTINUES GENDŹWIŁŁ WITH OSIECKI AND ŻÓŁCIAK: “If we expect turnout to oscillate around 74%, that means about 2 million additional voters in the second round. This is more than one-third of each candidate's current electorate. Of course, assuming that these newly mobilized voters are overwhelmingly Trzaskowski's electorate is naive. In the 2020 elections, we also had a large group of voters who voted in the second round but not the first. According to the exit poll, the votes were divided very close to 50-50 then, with a slight advantage for Trzaskowski. With such even chances, the more massive the mobilization, the more significant even a small advantage can be.” https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/polacy-pobija-wyborczy-rekord-ekspert-mowi-co-na-to-wskazuje-7161962738035392a.html -- THERE WAS A PRESS CONFERENCE, A PAP DISPATCH, AND MANY MEDIA REPORTS. AND NOW THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE, QUIETLY, HAS DISMISSED PROCEEDINGS CONCERNING THE FORMER CHIEF TRANSPORT INSPECTOR ALVIN GAJADHUR REGARDING THE TENDER FOR PURSUIT VEHICLES - PATRYK SŁOWIK: https://x.com/PatrykSlowik/status/1928089654743449862 -- THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE HAS DETERMINED THAT ALVIN GAJADHUR, FORMER CHIEF TRANSPORT INSPECTOR AND MINISTER OF INFRASTRUCTURE, AND NOW AN ADVISOR TO ANDRZEJ DUDA, DID NOT COMMIT A CRIME IN ORGANIZING THE TENDER FOR THE PURCHASE OF PURSUIT VEHICLES. THE COMPLAINT IN THIS MATTER WAS FILED BY GAJADHUR'S SUCCESSOR - PATRYK SŁOWIK AND PAWEŁ FIGURSKI ON WP: https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/alvin-gajadhur-nie-popelnil-przestepstwa-prokuratura-wlasnie-umorzyla-sledztwo-7161932733598400a -- NAWROCKI'S NAME DOES NOT APPEAR IN THESE PROCEEDINGS - THE DISTRICT PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE IN POZNAŃ HAS COMMUNICATED. THIS INFORMATION CONCERNS THE "70 ON 70" ARRANGEMENT, IN WHICH THE CANDIDATE SUPPORTED BY PIS WAS ALLEGED TO HAVE PARTICIPATED - POLSAT NEWS: https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/wybory/prezydenckie/news-nowe-informacje-ws-ustawki-70-na-70-jest-komentarz-prokuratu,nId,21823068 -- KURSKI ANNOUNCES RETURN TO TVP, NAWROCKI DISTANCES HIMSELF. TOMCZYK: DUDY WAS ALSO TRICKED, "MY SYMPATHY FOR HIM HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED." MENTZEN ON NAWROCKI DISTANCING HIMSELF FROM KURSKI - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/05/30/ -- DOES ANYONE STILL REMEMBER THAT THE CAMPAIGN WAS SUPPOSED TO BE ABOUT SECURITY? - ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “The examples of absurd situations are endless. Stumbles, supporting characters, snus on news tickers, time travel. Absolute cinema. We are having fun as if there were no war on our eastern border. As if there were no technological revolution. As if the problem of inequality didn't exist. Does anyone still remember that the campaign was supposed to be about security? Paraphrasing a cult television minute from 1997: it was a wonderful campaign, I will never forget it, I watched many debates (though debates were the only advantage of the fortunately nearing end campaign – although who knows if it won't get worse later). And "all those moments will be lost in time like tears in rain" – Roy Batty's monologue concluded.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art42402051-estera-flieger-wspaniala-to-byla-kampania-nie-zapomne-jej-nigdy -- I WOULD NOT WANT THE PARTY RAZEM TO BE REMEMBERED TWICE IN SCHOOL TEXTBOOKS AS A PARTY THAT CONTRIBUTED TO THE VICTORY OF EXTREME POPULISTS - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI ON ONE: “The Razem party represents valuable ideas, it has interesting personalities (unfortunately, most of the most interesting ones left precisely because they agree with the above reasoning). And if Razem were an NGO, one could only cheer for it. However, if it is a party, and in democratic politics, which is almost synonymous with compromise, the result of its actions could be the victory of a common opponent (Karol Nawrocki). It's a shame for the Razem party and a shame for democracy. Someone will say, "voters are not furniture," and there's no point in telling them what to do. Furniture – no, but the role of politicians has always been to support some ideas and criticize others. I would not want Razem to be recorded twice in school textbooks as a party that contributed to the victory of extreme populists. Someone will also say that surveys show that the majority of Adrian Zandberg's voters will support Rafał Trzaskowski anyway. However, Trzaskowski needs almost all of them given the slim difference between the two candidates in the second round. Especially since, in reality, not just in polls, he is likely losing to Nawrocki today. Even such an extreme candidate as Grzegorz Braun has stepped back from his extreme radicalism and supported Karol Nawrocki. Is there really more separating Adrian Zandberg from Rafał Trzaskowski than Braun from Nawrocki?” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/niebezpieczna-zagrywka-ludzi-zandberga-moze-odbic-sie-czkawka-komentarz/thwtlt6,79cfc278 -- IN POLITICS ORGANIZED AROUND THE TOP-DOWN CONFLICT - AND THIS MECHANISM DRIVES THE UNITED STATES AND MORE AND MORE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES - MENTZEN STANDS RIGHT NEXT TO ZANDBERG - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI, CREATOR OF OGB, IN CONVERSATION WITH GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI ON GAZETA.PL: “That is the key to understanding the mode in which Polish politics is entering. This can be seen, for example, in the flow of electorate between Mentzen and Zandberg, which seems absurd and illogical. Meanwhile, in politics organized around the top-down conflict – and this mechanism drives the United States and more and more European countries – Mentzen stands right next to Zandberg. Both speak in a similar way about the fundamental contemporary political conflict. Donald Trump used this, defining who in the USA is the establishment and who is the people, and then sided with the people. In America, the establishment is not other billionaires, it is not Amazon or Facebook; it is New York, CNN television, gender, and the left-wing agenda that emphasized gender equality and sexual preferences, rather than equality of opportunity for advancement and career. In Poland, in many respects, it is very similar to the United States.” -- A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW STRONGLY THIS PROBLEM IS BOILING CAN BE CULTURE. INEQUALITIES HAVE BECOME THE SUBJECT OF HIGH-PROFILE FILMS AND SERIES: "PARASITE", "TRIANGLE OF SADNESS", "SQUID GAME", "THE MAID", "EL CUERPO" - STILL PAWŁOWSKI WITH SROCZYŃSKI: “One can find many reasonable explanations for why such a change is happening around the world, what its common causes are in very different countries, but the main diagnosis is: inequalities. A good indicator of how strongly this problem is boiling can be culture. Inequalities have become the subject of high-profile films and series: "Parasite," "Triangle of Sadness," "Squid Game," "The Maid," "El Cuerpo." Artists feel it first because they have freedom of expression; upcoming political changes are first visible in novels and films, when politicians and researchers still don't understand anything, but artists do. This principle doesn't work for us; there isn't a single film in Poland – I don't recall – about inequality. Our artists don't feel what we, who are involved in research, see quite well. And therefore, there is no outlet for us to discuss it at all, so everything is happening more violently. -- THE CAMPAIGN IN THE USA AND SIMILARLY IN POLAND SHOWS THAT IN POLITICS, WHEN IT ENTERS THE MODE OF TOP-DOWN CONFLICT, IT CEASES TO MATTER WHETHER A CANDIDATE IS GOOD OR BAD - CONTINUES PAWŁOWSKI WITH SROCZYŃSKI ON GAZETA.PL: “The campaign in the USA and similarly in Poland shows that in politics, when it enters the mode of top-down conflict, it ceases to matter whether a candidate is good or bad. If this were an image campaign and we were to choose a candidate based on their character traits, Nawrocki would have no chance long ago. In all surveys, when we asked who would better represent Poland, who is better prepared for office, Nawrocki loses decisively everywhere. However, for those who believe they don't have equal opportunities today, who are blocked in their careers or from moving up even one step, Trzaskowski's victory means that the side that will continue to limit them will win. This can be told like this: Trzaskowski's victory means that the chief physician who is the establishment in my town and got the position through connections will win, or the lawyer whose son graduated from free law school, did an apprenticeship, and I didn't get in will win. In other words, the Poland that has taken too much for itself will win.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31978026,kazdy-byle-nie-z-warszawy-jak-niechec-do-elit-zmienia-polityke.html -- THE GROWING OUTRAGE AND ATTEMPTS TO "FINISH OFF" THE PIS CANDIDATE WITH NEW SCANDALS MAY HELP HIM – THESE ARE THE CONCLUSIONS FROM THE IPSOS POLL FOR OKO.PRESS - PIOTR PACEWICZ AND MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI: “The poll leads to the conclusion that increasingly harsh and massive criticism of Nawrocki may even reinforce voting AGAINST him and even additionally mobilize right-wing voters. Outrage, even based on the most justified accusations, presents the liberal side to right-wing voters as an aggressor towards their values and habits. The attack provokes a reflexive defense, which is voting for a poor candidate so that the power system they see as a threat does not solidify. This can mobilize them to vote against liberal forces, which are perceived as aggressive and superior. And if we add to this the entrenched hypocrisy (one of the KO politicians argued on TVN24 that she was asking about Nawrocki's nicotine use "out of concern for his health"), we have a paradoxical effect ready. It is striking that Trzaskowski himself, perhaps aware of this trap, avoids a harsh tone.” https://oko.press/sondaz-oko-press-prawica-nie-za-nawrockim-ale-przeciw-trzaskowskiemu-nie-przedawkowac-oburzenia -- ELECTION DAY IS 22 YEARS TO THE DAY SINCE Donald Tusk BECAME CHAIRMAN OF THE CIVIC PLATFORM. -- BIRTHDAYS: Jacek Czaputowicz, Barbara Zdrojewska, Jerzy Budnik. SATURDAY: Renata Butryn. SUNDAY: Kamila Baranowska, Anita Czupryn, Wiesław Szczepański, Grzegorz Pietruczuk, Gwidon Wójcik, Zbigniew Gryglas, Tadeusz Zieliński, Tosia Kamińska.