state of play: 03/31/2025
— ONE WEEK BEFORE THE ELECTION, TELEWIZJA POLSKA, POLSAT, AND TVN WILL ORGANIZE A JOINT DEBATE, TO WHICH CANDIDATES WHO HAVE GATHERED THE REQUIRED MINIMUM OF 100,000 SIGNATURES ARE INVITED – VIEWERS OF TVP HEARD.
https://www.plotek.pl/plotek/7,195993,31815044,tvp-polsat-i-tvn-zorganizuja-wspolna-debate-prezydencka.html
— BOSAK: WE ARE NOT PROPOSING ANY CHANGES TO ABORTION REGULATIONS OR STUDY FINANCING – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/03/31
— THERE HAS LONG BEEN A PACT BETWEEN US AIMED AT FUTURE GOVERNMENTS – I HEAR FROM PEOPLE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE AND MENTZEN'S PARTY. ANDRZEJ DUDA WOULD LIKE TO BE THE GODFATHER OF A PIS AND CONFEDERATION COALITION – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: "They are thinking of revenge, although they would prefer to call it justice. President Andrzej Duda wants revenge on Donald Tusk. His chief of staff, Marcin Mastalerek, wants revenge on Jarosław Kaczyński first and foremost. How? By strengthening Sławomir Mentzen and the Confederation, which would enter into a coalition with Law and Justice in the future, and even forcing the departure of Chairman Kaczyński."
— MENTZEN EXPECTED MORE. HOWEVER, HE CLASHED WITH MP PRZEMYSŁAW WIPLER, WHO IS MASTALEREK'S FRIEND – GĄDEK CONTINUES IN NEWSWEEK: "Mentzen expected more. However, he clashed with MP Przemysław Wipler, who is Mastalerek's friend and mediated meetings with Duda. Wipler wanted to be the parliamentary club leader of the Confederation, and Mentzen did not arrange this. Someone from the palace: – Mastalerek's opinion is key. If he doesn't tell Duda that the Confederation members would like a meeting with the president, then there will be no meetings. Mentzen himself has no relationship with Duda."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/duda-i-mastalerek-maja-plan-mysla-o-zemscie/g6wfpv8,452ad802
— THERE IS A DISCUSSION ABOUT WHO – MENTZEN OR NAWROCKI – WILL REACH THE SECOND ROUND. I WILL RISK MAKING THIS BET – IN MY OPINION, IT WILL BE MENTZEN – ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: "Nawrocki performs relatively best among the oldest voters (people aged 60+ constitute nearly 70% of his voters), among women (over 60% of his electorate), and people with the lowest educational status (completing at most primary or vocational school characterizes over half of his supporters). There is a discussion about who – Mentzen or Nawrocki – will reach the second round. I will risk making this bet – in my opinion, it will be Mentzen. At least the polling trend emerging since December indicates this."
— TRZASKOWSKI'S POLLING LEAD IS NOT SAFE AT ALL – ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI CONTINUES IN GW: "The slight (51 to 49) lead of the right over the democrats in the first round makes the outcome of the second round unpredictable. While all polls, in which respondents are asked about both the first and second rounds, indicate Trzaskowski's victory in the second round with an advantage of about 10 points (with Nawrocki it is greater, with Mentzen it is smaller), it is worth noting two important issues. Firstly, these polls reveal a very large, double-digit group of undecided voters. Secondly, in these polls, the question about the second round is directed only to respondents who declared their participation in the first round."
— POSITIVE CHANGES FOR TRZASKOWSKI CAN BE LINKED TO A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT EMPHASIS IN HIS CAMPAIGN – MACHOWSKI CONTINUES IN GW: "The balance of these shifts is generally positive: although he still lacks half a million votes compared to December, Trzaskowski has seen an increase of 200,000 votes compared to February, and 500,000 compared to January. These positive changes for Trzaskowski can be linked to a slightly different emphasis in his campaign: he has begun to appeal to his obvious base to a greater extent than before – a good example of this is Trzaskowski's excellent rally in Zielona Góra, entirely devoted to women's rights."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31802471,sondazowa-przewaga-trzaskowskiego-wcale-nie-jest-bezpieczna.html
— MENTZEN PERFORMED A SPECTACULAR PATRICIDE AND PUSHED JANUSZ KORWIN-MIKKI OUT OF HIS OWN PARTY; THE GENERATION OF 30-, 40-, AND YOUNG FIFTY-YEAR-OLDS IS EFFECTIVE IN THE CONFEDERATION – DOMINIKA SITNICKA AND AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: "When Trzaskowski had the chance to compete with Tusk for leadership in 2021, he gave way. He also did not build a party with other 'younger' politicians – Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz, although such a scenario was on the table. This problem also concerns Law and Justice, where the generation of fifty-year-olds (Mateusz Morawiecki, Zbigniew Ziobro, Mariusz Błaszczak, and the slightly younger Przemysław Czarnek – 47 years old) politely waits for their moment. Meanwhile, Sławomir Mentzen performed a spectacular patricide and pushed Janusz Korwin-Mikki out of his own party. The patriarch of the Polish far-right is now de facto out of politics. The generation of 30-, 40-, and young fifty-year-olds is effective in the Confederation. It is their party, they built it themselves, and they decide independently which direction it takes."
— A CONFEDERATION CANDIDATE WOULD UNLEASH NEW ENERGY AND REARRANGE THE POLISH POLITICAL SCENE. OR AT LEAST MAKE THE IMAGINATION OF SUCH A REARRANGEMENT ASTOUNDINGLY CLOSE TO REALITY – SZCZĘŚNIAK AND SITNICKA CONTINUE IN OKO: "If Mentzen were to reach the second round, Trzaskowski's campaign team would be forced to build a new strategy. Current analyses and the assumptions built upon them would become obsolete. The Confederation candidate would unleash new energy and rearrange the Polish political scene. Or at least make the imagination of such a rearrangement astoundingly close to reality."
— THE EXCITEMENT MAY SPREAD TO PEOPLE WHO DO NOT FOLLOW POLITICS DAILY AND WHO MAY GO TO THE POLLS FOR THE FIRST TIME, BUT TODAY SUCH A SCENARIO STILL SEEMS UNLIKELY – THE CONCLUSION OF SZCZĘŚNIAK AND SITNICKA IN OKO.PRESS: "He would be carried by the enthusiasm of very diverse environments disappointed by both PiS and PO/KO, that for the first time in decades a candidate outside the duopoly is entering the second round. The excitement may spread to people who do not follow politics daily and who may go to the polls for the first time. And the consequence may be the disorientation of the main political actors. However, today such a scenario still seems unlikely."
https://oko.press/sposob-na-mentzena-trzaskowski-kampania
— SŁAWOMIR MENTZEN'S ENTRY INTO THE SECOND ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AT THE EXPENSE OF KAROL NAWROCKI, THE CANDIDATE SUPPORTED BY PIS, MAY BECOME A CATALYST FOR THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE ENTIRE RIGHT-WING CAMP, AND AT THE SAME TIME AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO DONALD TUSK'S CIVIC COALITION – TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ.
— A CARTEL-LIKE GROUP OF FAT CATS, LIVING IN THE CONVICTION THAT THE STATE BELONGS TO THEM – PIETRYGA CONTINUES IN RZ: "Meanwhile, PiS is becoming an increasingly politically unattractive party. After the lost elections in 2023, it resembles more a cartel-like group of fat cats, living in the conviction that the state belongs to them, and the current situation is just a temporary anomaly."
— PIS HAD A VISION IN 2015, TODAY IT LACKS ONE. IT HAS BECOME A REACTIVE GROUP, FULL OF BORED ACTIVISTS – PIETRYGA CONTINUES IN RZ: "Voters will not vote for martyrs convinced that their return to power is deserved. They do not live for the peripeteias of a few PiS activists persecuted by Donald Tusk. A convincing vision of state modernization adapted to current realities is important. PiS had such a vision in 2015, today it lacks one. It has become a reactive group, full of bored activists, calculating, who do not even want to support their own candidate in the presidential elections." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42012401-tomasz-pietryga-porazka-karola-nawrockiego-moze-byc-dla-pis-zbawienna
— I AM HORRIFIED BY THE PROSPECT THAT MR. CZARZASTY WOULD BECOME THE SECOND PERSON IN THE STATE; MAKING SUCH A PERSON THE MARSHAL OF THE SEJM OFFENDS ME, PERSONALLY OFFENDS ME – BRONISŁAW KOMOROWSKI SAID ON RADIO ZET: "Szymon Hołownia should fulfill the agreement, but I am horrified by the prospect that Mr. Czarzasty would become the second person in the state – Bronisław Komorowski said on Radio ZET. The former president, commenting on a possible change in the position of Sejm Marshal, added that one of the leaders of the Left bears 'co-responsibility for the Rywin affair'. https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/byly-prezydent-mocno-o-wlodzimierzu-czarzastym-jestem-przerazony/c1k4dwc,79cfc278
— AFTER HOURS, BARTOSZ KOPANIA TRANSFORMS INTO PABLO MORALES AND ATTACKS POLITICAL OPPONENTS. AT TOTALIZATOR SPORTOWY, HE WAS PLACED IN A DEPARTMENT UNDER THE VICE-PRESIDENT SZYMON GAWRYSZCZAK, WHO HIMSELF RECENTLY CONTROLLED A COMPANY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOK Z BURAKA PROFILE – SZYMON JADCZAK IN WP: "We also asked Totalizator whether the posts insulting the US President and Polish politicians, which Bartosz Kopania (as Pablo Morales) published during the validity of the contract with the company, were published with Totalizator's knowledge and consent. We received no answer. Nor to the question of whether Szymon Gawryszczak is satisfied with the cooperation with Bartosz Kopania vel Pablo Morales." https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/internetowy-hejter-w-systemie-panstwowej-spolki-dostal-zlecenie-od-totalizatora-7139988727548736a
— 2nd anniversary of the death of Paweł Śpiewak, fourth of Izabella Sierakowska.
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