state of play: 02/07/2025

STATE OF PLAY: New US Ambassador a Right-Wing Hawk, RZ: More Companies Laying Off, Business Insider: Housing Prices Out of Reach for Poles

Łukasz Mężyk

— THE NEW US AMBASSADOR TO POLAND IS A RIGHT-WING HAWK – ONET: “At the end of January, on Donald Trump’s inauguration day, Rose recalled the previous term of the current US President and spoke in this context about relations with President Andrzej Duda and the government of former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. – Without a doubt, President Trump had excellent relations with Prime Minister Morawiecki, and President Duda, who remains in office and who participated in building strong bilateral relations – he said on Telewizji wPolsce24. When asked about forecasts regarding current contacts between the Polish government and the Trump administration, he stated that 'the time for decisions is coming before the presidential elections in Poland, whether Poland wants to move closer to the center of power in the European Union, (...) or perhaps Poland wants to remain a proud, sovereign country that fulfills its alliance commitments.'”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/thomas-rose-ambasadorem-usa-w-polsce-tak-mowil-o-rzadzie-donalda-tuska/mnghxng,79cfc278

— TOMEK ROSE WAS IN POLAND IN DECEMBER AT THE INVITATION OF ADAM BIELAN: At the invitation of MEP Adam Bielan, he was a guest in Warsaw for the EKR Study Days in December last year. Both politicians know each other well. Rose also debated in Michał Karnowski's panel at this conference, and later gave an interview.
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/720622-nowy-ambasador-usa-w-polsce-jest-znany-widzom-tv-wpolsce24

— IN OUR COUNTRY, HE WAS ONCE FAMOUS FOR HIS STATEMENTS CORRECTING THE DISTORTION OF HISTORY BY SOME JOURNALISTS THAT “THE POLISH GOVERNMENT WAS INVOLVED IN SUPPRESSING THE GHEEHTO UPRISING.” HE STRONGLY RESPONDED TO THOSE WORDS THEN. AND RECENTLY HE STRONGLY CRITICIZED THE PURGES IN POLISH PUBLIC MEDIA – WPOLITYCE CITES A TWEET BY JOANNA PINKWART FROM KANAŁ ZERO:
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/720627-co-o-nowym-ambasadorze-usa-w-polsce-pisza-w-sieci

— THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN JANUARY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED COMPARED TO DECEMBER DATA – MARIA MAZUREK IN GAZETA.PL: “According to the ministry, at the end of last month, 838.7 thousand unemployed people were registered in labor offices. This is 52.6 thousand people (or 6.7 percent) more than at the end of December 2024. It is also known how the September floods in southwestern Poland affected the labor market. 'A total of 76.9 thousand unemployed people were registered in 43 districts where a state of natural disaster caused by floods was declared, which is about 5.2 thousand more people than at the end of 2024. The unemployment growth rate in these districts was 7.3 percent, while in the remaining districts it was 6.6 percent. This means that the growth was similar,' the ministry's statement reads.”
https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,31673719,bezrobocie-w-gore-sa-nowe-dane-resortu-pracy.html

— THE NEW YEAR STARTED COLDLY IN THE LABOR MARKET. MORE AND MORE COMPANIES ARE LAYING OFF – ANITA BŁASZCZAK IN RZ: “Data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and calculations by 'Rzeczpospolita' indicate that 2024 already ended with the largest scale of group layoffs since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic – and not only those reported to labor offices, but also those implemented. The latter are usually significantly fewer, as notifications also include employees whose employment conditions the employer wants to change (which some accept), and some companies manage to reduce the scale of planned layoffs.”
https://pro.rp.pl/raporty-ekonomiczne/art41776311-na-rynku-pracy-nowy-rok-zaczal-sie-od-chlodu-coraz-wiecej-firm-zwalnia

— GROWING FEAR OF UNEMPLOYMENT – GRZEGORZ SIEMIONCZYK, CHIEF ANALYST AT MONEY.PL: “For example, in the enterprise sector (which includes entities with at least 10 employees), average employment in December was 62.5 thousand lower than in January (a year-on-year comparison does not make sense due to the changing enterprise sample every January). Excluding the pandemic year of 2020, this is the worst result since 2012, when the Polish economy felt the effects of the debt crisis in the Eurozone. This data is consistent with numerous media reports about group layoffs. As a result, fear of unemployment is growing. From the same surveys, based on which GUS calculates the aforementioned consumer sentiment index, it appears that the sense of job security has been consistently declining from the summer of 2023 to November 2024, when it was the lowest since February 2023.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/blizny-po-kryzysie-dlaczego-polacy-nie-widza-ze-zyje-im-sie-lepiej-analiza-7119536568245056a.html

— TEACHER RAISES. THE GOVERNMENT IS STINGY THIS TIME – PIOTR PACEWICZ AND PAULINA PACUŁA IN OKO.PRESS: “Between 2011-2023, teacher salaries grew 4 times slower than the average in the economy and 5 times slower than the minimum wage. The generous raises in 2024 only partially compensated for this discrimination. In 2025, we are returning to worse treatment. (...) As can be seen, there is currently a risk of a relapse of thinking from the times of Donald Tusk's first government, when it was decided that after a series of high raises (2007-2011), teacher expectations could be considered satisfied.”
https://oko.press/podwyzki-dla-nauczycieli-rzad-tym-razem-skapy-kto-ile-dostanie-i-dlaczego-tak-malo

— HOUSING PRICES HAVE ESCAPED POLES – PATRYK SKRZAT IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “In 2024, both housing prices and earnings increased in Poland. Unfortunately, the latter did not increase enough to halt the decline in housing affordability – notes Marek Wielgo from RynekPierwotny.pl. In an analysis of key market events prepared for Business Insider, he also draws attention to the increase in loan inquiries, but also in concluded contracts, which may suggest that Poles have stopped believing in government programs.”

— THE ANALYSIS OF HOUSING AFFORDABILITY FOR POLES YIELDS INTERESTING AND, UNFORTUNATELY, NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC CONCLUSIONS – BUSINESS INSIDER FURTHER: “The analysis of housing affordability for Poles yields interesting and, unfortunately, not very optimistic conclusions. – In 2024, not only did housing prices increase in the largest cities, but so did the earnings of their residents. Unfortunately, not enough to stop the decline in housing affordability – comments the expert.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/nieruchomosci/ceny-mieszkan-uciekly-polakom-regres-we-wszystkich-glownych-miastach-analiza/hcp3jtl

— A BLOGGER PREDICTED A MONTH AGO THAT A FRIEND OF PRESIDENT MISZALSKI, WHO SELLS LED LIGHTS, WOULD WIN THE COMPETITION FOR THE HEAD OF PFRON IN MAŁOPOLSKA: https://x.com/TomaszBorejza/status/1887543885800321414

— ROMAN GIERTYCH CRITICIZES HOŁOWNIA'S DECISION TO TEMPORARILY BAN A LEADING GAZETA WYBORCZA JOURNALIST FROM THE SEJM: I BELIEVE THAT WITHOUT EDITOR CZUCHNOWSKI'S FIGHT FOR DEMOCRATIC POLAND, MR. SZYMON HOŁOWNIA WOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THE MARSHAL OF THE SEJM.
https://x.com/GiertychRoman/status/1887533056275181765

— ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI FROM OGB POINTS OUT INACCURACIES IN PUBLISHED OPINIA24 SURVEYS: “Both surveys were conducted at approximately the same time! The result for Rafał Trzaskowski differs between them by over 7 percentage points.”
https://x.com/LukasPawlowski/status/1887492132299997621

— HOW DOES DONALD TUSK WANT TO EXTRACT BENEFITS FROM THE MIGRATION PACT IF HE NOW WANTS TO IGNORE IT? – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “However, the Prime Minister's rhetoric is changing somewhat. Last year – in May, when the EU finally adopted the pact – the head of government certainly spoke more than he does today: – This is my task, and I will fulfill this task. Poland will be a beneficiary of the migration pact. We will not pay for anything, we will not have to accept any migrants from other directions, the European Union will not impose any migrant quotas on us. However, Poland will effectively seek financial support from the EU in connection with becoming a host country for hundreds of thousands of migrants, mainly from Ukraine. How does Donald Tusk want to extract benefits from the migration pact if he now wants to ignore it?”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/donald-tusk-wie-przez-co-moze-wszystko-przegrac-dlatego-mowi-jak-pis/j8tbrg8

— “WILL THE FLOOD MINISTER ALSO BE QUESTIONED?” CIESZYŃSKI ON COLLEGIUM HUMANUM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/02/07

— POROSHENKO WANTS TO RETURN TO THE PRESIDENTIAL SEAT OF UKRAINE AND PRAISES TRUMP – INTERIA: “Referring to Donald Trump, whom he met in 2017 when they were both presidents, Petro Poroshenko expressed conviction that his return to the White House is a great opportunity for Ukraine. He recalled that it was during Trump's first term that Washington began supplying Kyiv with crucial weapons. – We need to find the right arguments with Trump. It is also a matter of American interests and their reputation in the world, so everything is possible – notes the former president of Ukraine.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/interia-blizej-swiata/news-le-monde-ukrainska-kampania-prezydencka-w-cieniu-wojny,nId,7905474

— 6TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH OF PRIME MINISTER JAN OLSZEWSKI.

— A MEMORIAL TO JAN OLSZEWSKI: https://polskieradio24.pl/39/156/Artykul/2357126,Jan-Olszewski-Polityk-z-pieknym-zyciorysem

— BIRTHDAYS: Aleksander Pociej, Tomasz Kapliński, Krzysztof Żabiński, Iwona Guzowska.


Łukasz Mężyk