state of play: 12/13/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Poll Shows Youth Favor Confederation; Flieger: Animals Must Wait Because the 'Gentlemen' from Confederation Will Get Offended; Szydło on Campaign: It's Better Than Expected

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 43RD ANNIVERSARY OF THE INTRODUCTION OF MARTIAL LAW BY THE COMMUNIST REGIME. -- NATO SECRETARY GENERAL MARK RUTTE WARNED THAT THE WEST IS NOT READY FOR WHAT AWAITS IT "IN FOUR TO FIVE YEARS." ACCORDINGLY, HE CALLED FOR A "SHIFT TO A WAR FOOTING" AND AN "INCREASE IN PRODUCTION AND DEFENSE EXPENDITURE." https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/szef-nato-ostrzega-zachod-nie-jestesmy-gotowi-na-to-co-nas-czeka/0c5bcmd,79cfc278 -- SOMETHING LIKE THIS RARELY HAPPENS IN DIPLOMACY. AFTER THE MAIN TALKS, PRESIDENT MACRON ANNOUNCED HE WAS CUTTING HIS VISIT TO POLAND SHORT. THIS IS A CLEAR GESTURE AND AN INDICATION THAT HE IS UNSATISFIED WITH THE CONVERSATIONS - JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ ON ONET: “Something like this rarely happens in diplomacy. After the main talks, President Macron announced he was cutting his visit to Poland short. This is a clear gesture and an indication that he is unsatisfied with the conversations. I'm not surprised – he was hoping for greater support for his concept. What Poland announced earlier – this European defense or commitment to Ukraine. President Macron arrived after a conversation with President-elect Donald Trump. He has some knowledge. President Trump wants to support Europeans to take responsibility for security and get involved in Ukraine – he emphasized.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/jacek-czaputowicz-surowo-ocenia-rok-rzadow-donalda-tuska-niedostateczny/897l184,79cfc278 -- ANIMALS MUST WAIT BECAUSE THE 'GENTLEMEN' FROM CONFEDERATION WILL GET OFFENDED - ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “Why concede to Confederation politicians? How much more reason and human dignity will politicians who will be seeking its votes in the coming months have to lose? It won't end with animals. By yielding to radicals, one does not neutralize their backward views, but legitimizes them. It's time to 'pull Poland up higher,' because the measure of a modern and aspiring state is how it cares for the weakest. The question is whether Civic Coalition is 100 percent convinced of this.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41573791-estera-flieger-zwierzeta-musza-poczekac-bo-jasnie-panstwo-z-konfederacji-sie-obrazi -- MORAWIECKI TO BECOME NEW EKR HEAD. TO REPLACE GIORGIA MELONI - INTERIA: “The Italian daily 'Il Giornale' reports that Mateusz Morawiecki is being considered for the position of the new head of the European Conservatives and Reformers (ECR). The appointment of the former Polish prime minister as the group's chairman is expected to take place no later than mid-January, and certainly before Donald Trump's inauguration.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/zagranica/news-nieoficjalnie-morawiecki-zostanie-nowym-szefem-ekr-zastapi-g,nId,7874311 -- "OTHERWISE, ALL CITIZENS WILL TAKE TO THE STREETS OF BRUSSELS AND THEN THE EU WILL END." MORAWIECKI ON THE NECESSITY OF CHANGE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/12/13 -- ALMOST EVERY SECOND POLE SAYS THEIR LIFE IS WORSE THAN BEFORE DONALD TUSK (67) AND HIS TEAM CAME TO POWER. THIS IS ACCORDING TO A POLL BY THE POLLSTER RESEARCH INSTITUTE CONDUCTED FOR "SE.": “A year after the change of power, we asked Poles how politics has impacted their lives. Only 14% of respondents indicate an improvement. 36% see no change, and according to 44% of those asked, life is worse than before the change of power in 2023.” https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/prawie-polowie-polakow-pogorszylo-sie-za-rzadow-tuska-zaskakujacy-sondaz-aa-KYmv-L9cx-kdKH.html -- IT'S BETTER THAN EXPECTED. YOU CAN SEE THAT THE CAMPAIGN TEAM IS INTENSIVELY DOING ITS HOMEWORK - BEATA SZYDŁO ON TELEWIZJA WPOLSCE24: “It's better than expected. Secondly, I think he needs to be very active and fill this time very intensely right now, because he is undoubtedly a person who hasn't been in politics until now, so people need to get to know him, they need to have the opportunity to talk to him.” -- CONSERVATIVES IN THE EU ARE LARGELY PRIMARILY PRAGMATISTS - SZYDŁO SAID: “It is clearly visible that the left-liberal elites in Brussels will do everything to prevent parties that are pragmatic from taking power in individual member states. Today, we can say that conservatives in the EU are largely primarily pragmatists, people who think in terms of the good of their citizens.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/715633-szydlo-o-kampanii-nawrockiego-jest-nadspodziewanie-dobrze -- IT TURNS OUT THAT DISCOVERY WOULD LIKELY HAVE LOST ABOUT A BILLION ZLOTY ON ITS SALE ANYWAY. DONALD TUSK'S DECISION COULD MAKE IT EVEN LARGER - JACEK FRĄCZYK IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “Due to the potential inclusion of TVN on the list of strategic companies, and consequently limiting the American shareholder's ability to dispose of assets, the value of TVN in the eyes of a future investor could be much lower, and Warner Bros. Discovery would not receive the 6 billion PLN. It is different to buy a company whose subsequent sale depends on government consent, than a company that can be sold freely, as Scripps did in 2015. This reservation is conditional on the listing actually happening. After all, this concerns the ownership of an American entity, and the US government has many ways to persuade the Polish government to act fairly regarding companies dependent on American entities. The so-called lex TVN was not signed by the president during the PiS government for no reason.” https://businessinsider.com.pl/gielda/wiadomosci/ile-jest-wart-tvn-nie-nalezy-porownywac-z-cyfrowym-polsatem/n4m4m86 -- PLACING POLSAT AND TVN ON THE LIST OF POLAND'S STRATEGIC COMPANIES BASED ON A REGULATION IS HIGHLY RISKY DUE TO THEIR SECONDARY TELECOMMUNICATIONS ACTIVITY, RATHER THAN PRIMARY MEDIA ACTIVITY - DR. IWONA GĘBUSIA, DOCTOR OF LAW, IN RZ: “Under the current legal framework, listing media companies in the register of strategic entities may lead to a situation where a subsequent administrative decision, expressing opposition to achieving dominance, will be devoid of a legal basis and thus invalid (Article 156 § 1 point 2 of the Code of Administrative Procedure). Such a scenario would not only fail to protect media companies from takeover by an undesirable investor but could expose Poland to compensation claims from the owners of media companies or from a potential, domestically contested, buyer (e.g., for breach of international investment protection agreements).” -- I SEE THE GREATEST THREATS IN THE POSSIBLE TAKEOVER OF CONTROL OVER MEDIA SERVICE PROVIDERS BY PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH OR SYMPATHETIC TO THE RULING CAMP - FURTHERMORE, DR. GĘBUSIA IN RZ: “I see the greatest threats in: the arbitrary and unconvincing classification of Polsat and TVN as telecommunications companies, the possible takeover of control over media service providers by persons affiliated with or sympathetic to the ruling camp (which will cripple unfettered public debate and media pluralism), and the violation of regulations, such as EU law or conventions, and investment protection agreements.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41573231-iwona-gebusia-polsat-i-tvn-dostawcy-uslug-medialnych-czy-strategicznych -- THIS YEAR IS NOT ABOUT ACTUAL GOVERNANCE, BUT A SURVIVAL STRATEGY UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. BECAUSE THE NO. 1 GOAL OF DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT IS EXACTLY THIS: TO SURVIVE UNTIL THE ELECTIONS - JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “Judicial system reform? Stalled. Abolishing the Church Fund? Stalled. Healthcare reform? Stalled, and it's actually getting worse. Postulates to increase the tax-free allowance to PLN 60,000? That only draws laughter, as it will never be implemented. 0% loan? Fortunately, Civic Coalition did not keep its word. Halting forest logging? Quite the opposite – saws have been put to work along the Bug River.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/wytrychy-i-deszcz-pieniedzy-po-roku-rzad-donalda-tuska-jest-juz-o-krok-od-celu-nr-1/seqqzvf -- THE VOICES OF YOUNG POLES LED TO THE FORMATION OF DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT A YEAR AGO. TODAY, YOUNG VOTERS ARE NO LONGER AS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT CIVIC COALITION – ACCORDING TO A SURVEY WHOSE RESULTS WERE OBTAINED BY "RZECZPOSPOLITA" - MICHAŁ KOLANKO. -- THE POLL SHOWS THAT AMONG ALL YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 18-29, CONFEDERATION IS IN FIRST PLACE WITH 26 PERCENT. Civic Coalition follows (15 percent), then Poland 2050 and PiS – both at 8.5 percent. New Left can count on 7.6 percent, The Left Party on 4 percent, and PSL on 2 percent. It is noteworthy that 22 percent of young people are undecided. The declared turnout in potential elections is high, reaching 78 percent, with 53 percent "definitely" wanting to go to the polls.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41573441-sondaz-mlodzi-ludzie-stawiaja-na-konfederacje-jest-tez-wielu-niezdecydowanych -- THEY GAVE POWER TO CIVIC COALITION, NOW THEY ARE CHANGING FRONT. A SURPRISING CHANGE IN THE POLL - TITLE IN INTERIA. -- YOUNG PEOPLE ARE TURNING AWAY FROM THE RULING COALITION. ANOTHER PARTY IS TAKING THE LEAD - TITLE IN ONET. -- "PROPER" RELATIONS BETWEEN TUSK AND HOŁOWNIA ARE EXHAUSTED - JAKUB SZCZEPAŃSKI IN INTERIA: “According to our informant, we should prepare for a sharp campaign and the amplification of the conflict between the prime minister and the marshal in the media. - The rivalry between Szymon Hołownia and Rafał Trzaskowski, necessarily, will fuel certain emotions - we hear. - To create a space for a start, one has to stand out – he emphasizes.” -- "IF HOŁOWNIA GETS 3 PERCENT, THAT WILL BE GOOD," SAYS A CIVIC COALITION POLITICIAN TO US - POLITICIAN FROM PO ON OFF AT SZCZEPAŃSKI: “Szymon Hołownia will land below 5 percent. If he gets 3 percent, that will be good – says one of the KO politicians. – He thought that if he got independent action, he would manage, he would build a foothold for a start. He just wore himself out very quickly. Pride goes before a fall – he adds.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-szorstka-przyjazn-donalda-tuska-i-szymona-holowni-nie-ma-co-,nId,7874410 -- ZERO SUCCESSES FOR ADAM BODNAR - PIOTR SZYMANIAK IN RZ: Over the past year, the main burden of actions and attention has been focused on restoring the rule of law, although it was known from the outset that it would be futile with this president. At the same time, nothing has been done during this period to significantly improve the efficiency of the justice system.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41574571-rok-rzadu-donalda-tuska-piotr-szymaniak-zero-sukcesow-adama-bodnara -- THE ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE MINISTER RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES DO NOT INSPIRE GREAT ENTHUSIASM. EXPERTS LACK A CLEAR PLAN ON HOW TO ESCAPE THE TRAP OF HIGH DEFICITS, BUT THEY ADMIT THAT THE SITUATION IS DIFFICULT - ANNA CIEŚLAK-WRÓBLEWSKA IN RZ: https://www.rp.pl/budzet-i-podatki/art41577241-rok-rzadu-andrzej-domanski-z-ocena-niejednoznaczna -- ONCE AGAIN, DARK CLOUDS OVER THE MINISTER OF SCIENCE - ALICJA GARDULSKA IN GW: “As reported by Wirtualna Polska, Minister Dariusz Wieczorek revealed the identity of the whistleblower who appealed for an audit of the finances of the University of Szczecin. The ministry forwarded her complaint and details to the university's rector.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31540254,znow-czarne-chmury-nad-ministrem-nauki-analizujemy-czy-nie.html -- BY A STRANGE COINCIDENCE, WHEN HIS CANDIDACY WAS BEING CONSIDERED, ŁUKASZ LITEWKA HAD ALREADY RAISED 25 MILLION PLN. THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE IS INVESTIGATING THE LEWICA DEPUTY'S CROWDFUNDING - PRZEMYSŁAW JEDLECKI IN GW: “He also added that 'by a strange coincidence, current press articles that add nothing to the ongoing investigation have appeared at a time when the media reported that Lewica is considering putting me forward in the race for the country's presidency. So, it might have political undertones.'” https://sosnowiec.wyborcza.pl/sosnowiec/7,93867,31539035,lukasz-litewka-zebral-25-mln-zl-sledczy-sprawdzaja-zrzutki.html -- THERE IS ALSO A SECOND OPTION, WHICH I ADVOCATE FOR, SIMILAR TO, FOR EXAMPLE, PROF. MARCIN MATCZAK AND PROF. MACIEJ GUTOWSKI, THAT THIS PROBLEM CANNOT BE SOLVED BY AMPUTATION - PROF. EWA ŁĘTOWSKA IN A CONVERSATION WITH DARIUSZ ĆWIKŁAK IN NEWSWEEK: “Yes, essentially just a plaque. Now the problem is what to do with this thing. We have a radical current, supported by, for example, Prof. Wojciech Sadurski, who says: plow it all down to bare earth, because gangrene has infected the healthy tissue and it can no longer be cured. It's a catchy slogan, but it doesn't answer how to do it. There is also a second option, which I advocate for, similar to, for example, Prof. Marcin Matczak and Prof. Maciej Gutowski, that this problem cannot be solved by amputation. Although, yes, this institution is infected, because its reputation is ruined.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/jak-naprawic-trybunal-konstytucyjny-ta-instytucja-jest-zainfekowana-ale-amputacja-nie/yx2gs08,452ad802 -- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Żmijan, Jarosław Marciniak, Zuza Piechowicz.

Łukasz Mężyk