Today's State of Play

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: CBOS: 54% of Poles Sympathize with the President's Vetoes, Nyczka: Will Konfederacja Move Towards the Center as PiS Deals with Braun? Flieger: Kaczyński Played Tusk's Favorite Game: Rattled the Cage

Łukasz Mężyk

-- AFTER 8 HOURS, ALMOST 150,000 VIEWS FOR THE THREE-HOUR DEBATE BETWEEN MAZUREK, MORAWIECKI, AND ROKITA:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edpWX0kOhJI

-- WHAT MORAWIECKI SAID:
Senate Pact under Nawrocki's Patronage? Morawiecki's Suggestion
Morawiecki on Cooperation with Czarnek: I See a Role for Myself
Morawiecki: If we aspire to truly high levels of support, that electorate exists in both places.
Morawiecki on Czarnek: The task is clearly outlined here.
Morawiecki on the Proposal by Nawrocki and Glapiński: The Prime Minister was strongly surprised by this.
https://300polityka.pl/pl/live#widze-role-dla-siebie-morawiecki-o-wspolpracy-z-czarnkiem

-- POLITICAL AGENDA FOR MONDAY: PARLIAMENT ON PIP REFORM, CBA LIQUIDATION, AND MERCOSUR, CONFERENCES BY CZARZASTY AND MORAWIECKIhttps://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- OVERALL, 54% OF RESPONDENTS SYMPATHIZE WITH THE PRESIDENT'S VETOES, ACCORDING TO A CBOS SURVEY: “Nearly four in ten respondents believe that President Nawrocki uses this power too often (38%); the same percentage of respondents express the opinion that President Karol Nawrocki uses the veto power appropriately often (38%). On the other hand, 16% of respondents are of the opinion that the head of state uses the right to veto government-prepared bills too rarely, while 8% have no specific opinion on this matter.”

-- 41% TRUST THE PRESIDENT IN REPRESENTING THE STATE, 29% TRUST THE GOVERNMENT - FURTHER FROM CBOS: “More than four in ten respondents trust the president more in matters of representing the state's interests (41%). The government enjoys the trust of slightly less than three in ten Poles (29%). Meanwhile, 12% of respondents trust both sides equally, and 17% of respondents have no trust in this matter, neither in the government nor the president.”
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/flashe_tekst.php?nr=8/2026

-- “I CAN IMAGINE BRAUN REPEATING KORWIN-MIKKE'S FATE, WHO IN 2014 HAD 7% IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS, ONLY TO FALL BELOW THE THRESHOLD IN 2015” - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH KAMILA BARANOWSKA ON INTERIA: “Karol Nawrocki's voters are currently divided between three parties: PiS, Konfederacja, and Braun's Korona. In addition, PiS is on the verge of a possible split. This is a situation that does not lend itself to simple predictions about what will happen in 2027. I can imagine Braun repeating Korwin-Mikke's fate, who in 2014 had 7% in the European Parliament elections, only to fall below the threshold in 2015 and not get into the Sejm. It is therefore quite possible that Braun's best moment is already behind him, so I do not rule out Konfederacja dropping to 8 percent and Braun to about 4.5 percent.”

-- “IT'S NOT ALWAYS THE ONE WHO IS THIRD IN JULY, WHO IS THIRD AT THE FINISH LINE” - FLIS CONTINUES WITH BARANOWSKA: “For now, I don't see such a place, because Grzegorz Braun, with his radicalism, has taken over the role of TUP today. Unless – and this cannot be ruled out – Braun's success turns out to be short-lived, for example, the war in Ukraine ends in six months and that changes the situation. There are so many components to Braun's popularity that in two years his support could really be different. Experience shows that the dark horse is usually not the one everyone thinks will be. When I studied polls around vacation time in 2023, it turned out that it's not always the one who is third in July, who is third at the finish line. And this is a painful collision with reality.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-gra-w-gorace-krzesla-o-wladzy-w-polsce-w-2027-moze-zdecydowa,nId,22627894

-- “BESIDES THE BLOW AIMED AT PiS AND EXPOSING MATTERS INCONVENIENT FOR IT, IT IS ALSO AN ATTEMPT TO EXPLOIT THE CONFLICT BETWEEN FACTIONS WITHIN KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY” - TOMASZ NYCZKA ON KONFEDERACJA'S IDEA REGARDING CZARNEK - WRITES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “One of the Konfederacja MPs points out how Mentzen's questions are constructed. He says that besides the blow aimed at PiS and exposing matters inconvenient for it, it is also an attempt to exploit the conflict between factions within Kaczyński's party. – It hits PiS, but also gives Czarnek 'ammunition' in the process. Because if Czarnek answers these questions well, he will have to attack Morawiecki, enraging the 'scouts,' thus pushing them out of the party. After all, the things Sławek asks about in his post are almost exclusively matters related to Mateusz Morawiecki's government – says a Konfederacja politician.”

-- WILL KONFEDERACJA MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTER AS PiS DEALS WITH BRAUN? - NYCZKA CONTINUES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “But we are also thinking among ourselves: Czarnek, with his radicalism, is the ideal candidate to 'scalp' Braun. PiS members have identified that their biggest problem is Braun, who is eating into their support, they say this directly in the Sejm. Within the party, they also say that criticizing PiS is important if Konfederacja wants to gather electorate more towards the center, push away from the right and 'catch new voters.'
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32649808,czarnek-kandydatem-na-premiera-konfederacja-jeszcze-wyrazniej.html

-- “KACZYŃSKI PLAYED TUSK'S FAVORITE GAME: HE RATTLED THE CAGE BY DECIDING THAT PRZEMYSŁAW CZARNEK WOULD LEAD PiS TO THE ELECTIONS” - ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “It is said that the highest form of recognition is imitation. Jarosław Kaczyński played Donald Tusk's favorite game: he rattled the cage by deciding that Przemysław Czarnek would lead PiS to the elections. This is a trap set for the Civic Coalition. If Civic Coalition politicians run from one increasingly sharp statement of the PiS candidate for prime minister to another, they will break their legs in the process.”

-- “PiS DOES NOT NECESSARILY HAVE TO RETURN TO POWER, BUT THE CIVIC COALITION CAN STILL LOSE – TO ITSELF” - FLIEGER CONTINUES IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “PiS does not necessarily have to return to power, but the Civic Coalition can still lose – to itself. Especially since Poland faces difficult months ahead – including, for example, rising gasoline prices. And we can scoff that PiS treats voters according to the principle 'the ignorant masses will buy it,' repeating 'Donald's fault,' even though he's not to blame. But the wisdom of the nation lies in proverbs, so those in power must remember that 'the blacksmith is to blame, the Gypsy is hanged,' and either prepare an effective response or – learning from Jarosław Kaczyński himself – choose their own battlefields.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43940861-estera-flieger-przemyslawem-czarnkiem-po-klatce

-- BIRTHDAYS: Borys Budka, Bożena Borys-Szopa, Ewelina Owczarska, Anika Słowińska.


Łukasz Mężyk