state of play: 08/30/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Flieger: They botched development and CPK. Now they'll fixate on the PKW, Bodnar, and Tusk, and get stuck there. Stankiewicz: Cash shortages may fuel hitherto pacified PiS revolts.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- "SUCH A RULING MAY BE FLAWED." BODNAR ON THE SUPREME COURT RULING - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/08/30 -- THE PRIME MINISTER'S CHANCELLERY SCRUPULOUSLY MONITORED WHO WOULD RECEIVE NOMINATIONS. THIS, IN TURN, UNDERMINES THE THESIS THAT CONSENT TO WESOŁOWSKI'S APPOINTMENT MAY HAVE BEEN AN ACCIDENTAL RESULT OF AN ERROR - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON Onet: “This whole situation puts the Prime Minister's words about a mistake having occurred in a different context. Since Berek rejected Mańkowska, it means he had full control over the process of selecting the judge presiding over elections in the Supreme Court. It is therefore difficult to believe he did not notice Wesołowski. - I don't believe in Maciej Berek's mistake. Anyone who knows him knows he is an outstanding professional and he simply would not have made such an error - a high-ranking politician from the ruling camp participating in coalition meetings told Onet”. https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/burza-wokol-podpisu-donalda-tuska-ujawniamy-new-facts/zzhexhe,79cfc278 -- IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO RESTORE THE RULE OF LAW WITH ANDRZEJ DUDA, WHICH IS WHY THE GRAND DECLARATIONS OF OUTRAGE SEEM HIGHLY EXAGGERATED - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “That's why the grand declarations of outrage, as if a fundamental volte-face has occurred because Tusk allegedly recognized the neo-judges, seem highly exaggerated. The state of play hasn't changed: with Andrzej Duda in the Presidential Palace, it's impossible to restore the rule of law. And it's not that – as the outraged and critics claim – the Prime Minister recognized the neo-judges. Life and everyday practice itself recognized them.” -- HE SHOULD HAVE SEEN A RED FLAG. THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN: PROBABLY THE MATTER WAS DISMISSED PRECISELY BECAUSE ITS PRACTICAL DIMENSION IS ALMOST ZERO - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER IN GW: “The Prime Minister knows that Andrzej Duda promotes neo-judges, so when he sees a document from the Presidential Palace on the table, a red flag should have gone up. That didn't happen: probably the matter was dismissed precisely because its practical dimension is almost zero. Imagination simply failed in this matter – but the judges' resentment is immense and radiates to the Civic Coalition's core electorate. It was clear after the post by Supreme Court judge Prof. Włodzimierz Wróbel that the matter wouldn't simply fade away.” -- NOW TUSK IS PONDERING THE MISTAKE WITH IGOR OSTACHOWICZ - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER: “However, a political mistake remains a mistake, and the Prime Minister will have to find a way to appease the anger of the core electorate in the near future. He is now pondering this with Igor Ostachowicz.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31263682,kontrasygnata-tuska-na-posiedzeniu-rzadu-premier-powiedzial.html -- REGARDING THE REACTIONS OF AUTHORITIES INVOLVED IN DEFENDING THE RULE OF LAW TO WHAT THE NINE-MONTH-OLD GOVERNMENT IS DOING, ONE CAN SAY IT DIDN'T TAKE THEM LONG TO INCITE SUCH OPPOSITION FROM SUPPORTERS - Katarzyna Skrzydłowska-Kalukin in Kultura Liberalna. -- EVEN NEGLIGENCE CAN LEAD TO DISAPPOINTMENT AND FRUSTRATION - SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN FURTHER IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “The matter with Judge Wesołowski probably did not turn out to be a conscious legitimization of the destruction of the rule of law in exchange for political bargaining. However, even negligence can lead to disappointment and frustration, especially in the context of such a long struggle for the defense and then the restoration of the rule of law.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/08/29/skrzydlowska-kalukin-rozczarowanie-zaangazowanych-autorytetow/ -- PIS WILL LOSE MUCH MORE THAN MONEY. THEY WENT TO PARLIAMENT WITHOUT ANY OFFER OR NARRATIVE, THEIR MESSAGE CAN BE SUMMED UP AS FOLLOWS: "TUSK TUSK TUSK FUR DEUTCHLAND." THEY BOTCHED DEVELOPMENT AND CPK. NOW THEY WILL FIXATE ON THE PKW, BODNAR, AND TUSK. AND GET STUCK IN IT - Estera Flieger on X. https://x.com/estera_flieger/status/1829188226449305604?s=46 -- THE PKW NUCLEAR BOMB, ALONG WITH THE DECISION OF THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION, MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A KEY STAGE IN THE GAME FOR THE SURVIVAL OF PIS AS A PARTY - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON Onet: “Kaczyński is in a difficult situation because Poles have been reluctant to pay for parties until now. If he fails to launch a broad campaign, this could be the beginning of the end for PiS as we know it. Cash shortages may fuel hitherto pacified revolts within PiS, stirred by Kaczyński, and lead to the party's division even before the 2027 elections.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/politycy-pis-sa-w-szoku-zapowiedz-pkw-to-atom-bomb/sfydy0v,79cfc278 -- PIS HELPLESS IN THE FACE OF THE PKW DECISION DUE TO ITS OWN FAULT - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Law and Justice is now bearing the consequences of the original sin of how it governed – a complete disregard for safety mechanisms in the political system and the necessity of institutions that, on one hand, enjoy the respect of all political factions, and on the other, are independent of the executive power.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41048071-artur-bartkiewicz-pis-helpless-in-the-face-of-pkw-decision-due-to-own-request -- FOR KACZYŃSKI, MAINTAINING POWER OVER THE PARTY IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN ITS BANK ACCOUNT BALANCE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “This also allows Kaczyński to pacify the simmering rebellion and discontent within the party for some time and maintain control over it for further years. Because for Kaczyński, maintaining power over the party is more important than the state of its bank account.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41043901-michal-szuldrzynski-pkw-vs-pis-will-rejection-of-report-change-rules-of-political-game-in-poland -- PIS MAY PARADOXICALLY BENEFIT FROM THIS. IT WILL MOBILIZE ITS FAITHFUL VOTERS MORE, WHO PERCEIVE THE PKW DECISION AS POLITICAL REPRESSION - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “But even if PiS does not achieve a satisfactory verdict and falls into financial trouble (the grouping has ceased loan repayments), it may paradoxically benefit from this. It will mobilize its faithful voters more, who perceive the PKW decision as political repression, provided, of course, that money problems do not simultaneously become a centrifugal force and cause quarrels and schisms within PiS.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/pkw-passed-exam-after-rejecting-report-pis-political-earthquake-is-coming-188154 -- FOR NOW, THEY GET AWAY WITH EVERYTHING. BUT THE DAY WILL COME WHEN THE TIDE TURNS. BECAUSE THE TIDE ALWAYS TURNS - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: “However, a moment will come when the tide turns. I don't know in whose favor. But I know from whom it will turn. And there is a huge probability that the 'mandate from God Himself' will one day be used to treat Tusk and Bodnar in the same (or – God forbid – a worse) way as they are treating him today.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-adam-bodnar-plowed-over-at-campus-you-won't-guess-by-whom,nId,7768615 -- THEY ARE RAISING ALARMS REGARDING BIAŁOWIEŻA FOREST. "TUSK'S GOVERNMENT MAY OPEN THE WAY TO LOGGING" - PATRYK STRZAŁKOWSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “Over a century old trees in Białowieża Forest may be threatened by logging - a non-governmental organization is sounding the alarm. Proposed changes prepared by a state institute would allow for forest management in valuable areas of the Forest. According to the organization, this is a threat not only to nature but also to the Forest's status as a UNESCO World Heritage site.” https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,172392,31263682,alarms-regarding-bialowieza-forest-donald-tusk-s-government-may.html -- HALF A YEAR WAIT FOR A SPECIALIST. IT'S WORSE THAN IT WAS - TVN24: “Half of stable patients waited 190 days or longer for an endocrinologist appointment (the median average actual waiting time was 190 days). Furthermore, the waiting time increased by 16 days compared to 2022, and by 51 days compared to 2021. Patients requiring urgent visits also waited longer. In 2023, this was 55 days, an increase of 12 days compared to 2022, and 23 days compared to 2021.” https://tvn24.pl/biznes/z-kraju/health-nfz-report-longer-queues-for-specialist-clinics-st8063535?source=rss -- KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ HAS BUILT HIS OWN BRAND: HE IS OUR GUY FOR PATRIOTISM. WE SHOULD NOT LEAVE HIM A MONOPOLY ON THIS - MAREK BEYLIN IN GW: “Of course, the agrarian populists' patriotism differs for the better from the patriotism promoted by PiS. It is not as exclusionary, oppressive, and anachronistic. It falls between Jarosław Kaczyński's ideology and democracy. We, on the other hand, need a democratic, civic, and modern patriotism. Other coalition formations should speak out on this matter, unless they want to leave it to the agrarians.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31260513,empty-patriotism-conquers-democratic-poland.html -- THE YOUTH CLAPPED, FORCED INTO RIGID FRAMES OF POLITENESS AND GRATITUDE THAT PIS IS NO LONGER RULING - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The youth clapped, forced into rigid frames of politeness and gratitude that PiS is no longer ruling. They accepted that politics must probably be like this, that one must calmly listen to bullshit, otherwise the politician will get offended and say that this is not how one converses.” -- THE STANDARDS OF POLITENESS ARE IMPOSED BY A POLITICIAN WHO CALMLY, POLITELY, AND EMOTIONLESSLY CONDEMNS WOMEN TO UNCERTAINTY AND SUFFERING - PRZYBORSKA FURTHER IN KRYTYKA: “No insults, please, be polite, thank you for your honesty! The standards of politeness are imposed by a politician who calmly, politely, and emotionlessly condemns women to uncertainty and agony on the operating table from sepsis, and migrants to persecution by uniformed officers and death in the forest.” -- KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ WILL SIMPLY IGNORE THE POLITE AND CORRECT ONES, PUSH ASIDE THE HELPLESS, AND WON'T NOTICE THE MINORITIES - PRZYBORSKA'S CONCLUSION IN KRYTYKA: “I hope the youth will not be satisfied with praise, that the more polite talk they endure, the more pleasant Kosiniak finds the conversation. That they have correctly interpreted the head of PSL and will be able to return to the streets, because Kosiniak will simply ignore the polite and correct ones, push aside the helpless, and won't notice the minorities.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/will-youth-be-satisfied-with-praise-from-kosiniak-kamysz/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Liliana Sonik, Jacek Brzezinka.

Łukasz Mężyk