-- THE PRIME MINISTER ON THE SILENT MAJORITY, KOSINIAK WITH AN APPEAL FOR A REFERENDUM AND WRITING THE RESULT INTO THE CONSTITUTION, AFTER TERLECKI'S STATEMENT, CRISIS IN THE SEJM CHAMBER AND NOW THE SPEECH OF A DISABLED DEPUTY MINISTER OF FAMILY - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/10/27/ -- THE TWILIGHT OF PiS OR PROTESTS TO BE WAITED OUT? - on the front page of DGP. -- STRICT WITH CITIZENS, LENIENT WITH POLITICIANS - Fakt on the front page about Przyłębska. -- TOMORROW, WOMEN'S STRIKE - front page of GW. -- THE RULING PARTY APPEARS COMPLETELY LOST, A FORCE THEY MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CONTROL - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The ruling party appears completely lost in connection with what has happened. I believe that the leaders of PiS still haven't grasped that the social protest has reached such a high intensity and will not subside today or tomorrow. If anyone in PiS thought that the Constitutional Tribunal's decision could be covered up by something, or that it would help to cover up other matters and problems, or that they wanted to strike some political bargain like: 'today we pamble the left with the animal rights act, and tomorrow we'll give the orthodoxists a stricter abortion law', it means that the seriousness of the situation was underestimated by the ruling party. Unlike abstract slogans about defending democracy or judicial independence, the issue of abortion is understandable to everyone, and everyone can imagine that they themselves will find themselves in such a situation or that it will affect one of the women close to them. It seems to be slowly dawning on PiS politicians that, as a result of their actions, a force has been unleashed that they may no longer be able to control.” -- PSL HAS A MODERATELY CONSERVATIVE ELECTORATE, THE CENTR-RIGHT PLATFORM IN THE MOST DIFFICULT SITUATION - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “In turn, the parliamentary left has no problem fully supporting the protest and demanding full legalization of abortion. The Polish People's Party (PSL) and Civic Platform (PO) are in a much more difficult situation. The PSL knows that their electorate is moderately conservative, so the ruling causes rebellion among them, but they also cannot jump on the bandwagon of the discussion about full liberalization of abortion law in the country. The Civic Platform is probably in the most difficult situation. Platform started as a Christian Democratic, centre-right party. Today, it is somewhere completely else.” -- THE PLATFORM IS EQUALLY UNTRUSTWORTHY FOR PART OF THE RADICAL MANIFESTANTS, BUT NOTHING WILL EVER BE THE SAME IN POLISH POLITICS AGAIN - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “For part of the radically left-leaning manifestants, it is as untrustworthy as PiS – after all, it ruled for eight years and didn't change a single comma in the abortion regulations. On the other hand, the temptation to use this protest to delegitimize PiS's rule will be enormous. Whatever decision PO or PSL makes, there are many indications that nothing in Polish politics will ever be the same again.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/310269935-Szuldrzynski-Kiedy-gra-wymyka-sie-spod-kontroli.html -- BY WASHING ITS HANDS OF THE DISPUTE, A LARGE PART OF THE CHURCH FORFEITS ITS RIGHT TO MAKE DEMANDS OF THE RULING CAMP THAT INVOLVE ENORMOUS POLITICAL RISK - JACEK KARNOWSKI ON THE WORDS OF THE EPISCOPATE SPOKESPERSON: “Perhaps this difference is the result of divisions within the Episcopate. Divisions that have existed for a long time. Perhaps. But it must also be said that such statements: 'This is a political decision. The Church did not start this war. We really didn't want this war' will have consequences. By not defending the judges and the Tribunal at such a moment, absurdly reducing the whole matter to a 'political decision', by washing its hands of the dispute, a large part of the Church forfeits its right to make demands of the ruling camp that are very difficult or difficult to implement, that require courage and involve enormous risk. And there's no need to explain why this is happening. And it's not about this particular political constellation. No, it's something that will stay with us for a longer time. Moreover, perhaps the point is not to have to make such demands anymore? In short: the message is clear, distinct, and understandable. Nothing more needs to be added.” https://wpolityce.pl/kosciol/523819-slowa-rzecznika-kep-beda-mialy-powazne-konsekwencje -- PiS WILL DO WHAT IT DOES BEST, IT WILL TRY TO WAIT IT OUT - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN DGP: “It seems that for now, in the matter of tightening abortion law, PiS will do what it does best in such situations – try to wait everyone out. At least that's what the initial reactions of politicians we spoke with yesterday suggest.” -- PiS COUNTS ON RADICALISM BECOMING REPELLENT OVER TIME - ŻÓŁCIAK AND OSIECKI CONTINUE: “Although there were moments of crisis, like the mass protests of judges. But courts and the constitution, important for elites, were not significant enough to tip the scales. Today, the political consequences of the Constitutional Tribunal's decision may be different than before. PiS counts on the radicalism of some protesters, including attacks on churches, becoming repellent over time.” -- IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PiS HAS JUST EMBARKED ON THE PATH TO LOSING ELECTIONS - OSIECKI AND ŻÓŁCIAK CONTINUE: “But even if the protests subside, the ruling will remain. And the old truth states that elections are not won, but lost. And it is possible that PiS has just embarked on this path. Although it is a right-wing party, it does not mean that its voters are a 100% ideological monolith. While these voters might have viewed the dispute over the Supreme Court as not directly concerning them, such a ruling might be seen as touching upon their sphere of life. As one right-wing politician points out, in Poland, the winner so far has been the one who ensured peace, 'warm water in the tap' like PO in 2007, or economic stability like PiS in 2015. The Constitutional Tribunal's ruling causes agitation, and voters may send a bill. They don't have to vote for the left. It's enough that they don't vote for PiS.” https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1494583,wyrok-tkzagranie-ktore-zmienilo-logike-wojny-polsko-polskiej.html -- IMPROVISATION, LACK OF A PLAN, OUR BEST DEFENDER IS PROF. ZOLL - AN IMPORTANT PiS POLITICIAN IN JACEK GĄDEK'S ARTICLE IN GAZETA.PL: “Lack of preparation for revolt, panic, and recriminations – this is how the situation in the ruling camp can be described. But an attempt to convince the PiS leadership to amend the anti-abortion law to allow abortion in cases of certainty of fetal lethal defects is also starting to crawl. – What we are seeing now is complete improvisation. There is no plan. Our best defender is Prof. Andrzej Zoll appearing on TVN – says an important politician of the United Right.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,26438694,kompletna-improwizacja-w-pis-po-wyroku-ws-aborcji-naszym.amp -- KACZYŃSKI HAS LOST THE ABILITY TO GOVERN THROUGH CONFLICT - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “The government is facing more and more problems. Minister of Education Przemysław Czarnek wants to mold a new, better Pole in schools and is going into another war with LGBT. Farmers are rebelling against the 'package for animals'. Even Solidarity is in conflict with the government and is withdrawing from the Social Dialogue Council. Kaczyński has lost the ability to govern through conflict. PiS's polls are getting worse and worse. Even a change of prime minister would not help PiS, and this scenario is already being considered within the party. Poles will not buy a new puppet prime minister, so Kaczyński himself would have to become one. And he doesn't want that. The symbolic defeat of Moskal by Czarnek may herald the erosion of power. If further conflict hotspots cannot be extinguished, it may lead to street criteria. And PiS's fear is as visible as the protesters' determination.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/310269924-Nizinkiewicz-Prezes-Kaczynski-traci-kontrole-nad-panstwem.html -- WE MUST NOT ALLOW LAW TO FORCE WOMEN TO HEROISM - JAROSŁAW GOWIN IN CONVERSATION WITH MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “I know the content of this appeal and I endorse it. My party Porozumienie made a statement yesterday with exactly the same meaning. On the other hand, we believe that the lives of children with Down syndrome should be protected. We believe that we must not allow a situation where women are treated cruelly or legally forced into heroism, and that would be the case if a mother were forced to give birth to a child who will certainly die during or immediately after birth.” -- GOWIN ON NON-LIABILITY: “I already have several proposals on how to address the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling. One of these proposals provides for non-liability for abortion in a situation where the child is unable to live independently.” -- I AM AGAINST ANY FURTHER RESTRICTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY - GOWIN CONTINUES IN RZ: “From the beginning, the government has maintained that a complete lockdown is impossible, although point restrictions, such as those affecting the catering industry, are possible. Of course, the final decisions will be made by the entire government, but I can say what position I will take in government debates. I am against any further restrictions when it comes to economic activity.” https://www.rp.pl/Spor-o-aborcje/310269928-Gowin-Nie-zmuszajmy-kobiet-do-heroizmu.html -- CHANGING THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL WILL BE DIFFICULT EVEN AFTER POTENTIAL OPPOSITION ELECTION VICTORIES - IN AN ANALYSIS BY PIOTR SZYMANIAK IN DGP: “Even assuming that due to the pandemic-worldview crisis, early elections will be held and the opposition will win, the first judge appointed by the new government to the Constitutional Tribunal would replace... Leon Kieres, whose term ends in July next year. However, he is one of the two judges who submitted dissenting opinions in the abortion case. The next three (Muszyński, Przyłębska, Pszczółkowski) can only be replaced in December 2024, with Judge Pszczółkowski being the second judge with a dissenting opinion. Earlier, the new government will likely want to remove the so-called 'deputy judges' from the Constitutional Tribunal. But as Prof. Gutowski notes, this will not be as simple as it might seem at first glance. In his opinion, changing the law on the Constitutional Tribunal sufficiently will not be enough. That would be exactly what PiS did. And one cannot respond to a violation with a violation. Therefore, at some point, the Constitutional Tribunal will have to be formed from scratch. This can be done either by changing the constitution or by somehow declaring the formation process flawed. This, however, requires not only political will but also a sensible legal path – explains Prof. Gutowski.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/wydarzenia/artykuly/7989103,polityka-tk-aborcja-trybunal-konstytucyjny-protesty.html -- PAWEŁ BORYS - PRESIDENT OF PFR, TALKS ABOUT THREE SCENARIOS FOR THE ECONOMY - IN A CONVERSATION WITH DGP: “I see three basic scenarios. An optimistic one, assuming there will be no new restrictions and the number of infections will decrease in a few weeks, which will restore confidence, and the third wave of the pandemic in the spring will be mild. In this scenario, we are talking about a temporary decrease in economic activity and GDP in Q4 by about 2%, with a return to the growth path from 2021. The scenario that I currently consider to be the baseline is that there will be no full lockdown, but a high level of infections, including the third wave, will hinder economic activity until Q2 2021. This means that the second bottom of the crisis will be shallower than the previous one, with a decrease in activity of 3-4%, but unfortunately, it will be U-shaped, meaning the rebound will occur later. The black scenario is a full lockdown in Poland and Europe, a strong recession in the coming months, and subsequent waves of the pandemic in 2021. Let's hope this variant does not materialize, but we must be aware of it when planning, for example, further support programs, which represent a significant cost to public finances.” -- THE FINANCIAL SHIELD WAS NOT AS COSTLY AS ASSUMED - ADMITS BORYS AND EMPHASIZES THAT IT IS DEBT REGARDLESS: “It's not like there are some funds lying in an account and we're just wondering how much to spend. One must be aware that aid from anti-crisis and financial shields involves increasing debt. The less we increase it, the better. However, it is good that, at least in the case of the PFR Financial Shield, the program cost was not as high as initially assumed. The plan was for PLN 100 billion, we have currently spent about PLN 61 billion, and it will probably end at PLN 70 billion. But regardless, it's all debt, and it must be approached responsibly.” -- A MONTH OF LOCKDOWN COSTS 2-3% OF GDP - BORYS CONTINUES: “Doctors and epidemiologists have the decisive say. They claim that the threat from the perspective of the mortality rate is smaller than previously observed in China or Italy, and there is no need to take radical action. The economy is superimposed on this, because each month of lockdown costs 2-3% of GDP, which is PLN 40-60 billion. I don't see any strong dispute about this. There is a substantive discussion. However, these are very difficult decisions. It is obvious that no one wants to close companies, but on the other side, there is this invisible enemy in the form of the virus, and without reducing social contacts and implementing high sanitary rigors, the fight against it will be ineffective.” https://gospodarka.dziennik.pl/news/artykuly/7989140,pfr-kryzys-koronawirus-covid-19-epidemia-pieniadze-gospodarka.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Korwin-Mikke (78), Grzegorz Hajdarowicz (55), Tomasz Kamiński.