It has been barely a year since the WHO declared Covid-19 a global pandemic, and I don't think it's an understatement to say that the coronavirus pandemic has destroyed the world as we knew it.

The pandemic has fully disrupted the world's political, social, economic, religious, and financial structures, causing many deaths. We have witnessed unprecedented behaviors: countries closed borders, businesses were ordered to shut down, people were told to self-quarantine, and schools closed their doors to billions of children.

The pandemic has affected all countries worldwide, and national economies and businesses are still counting the costs and grappling with lockdown measures and vaccination rollouts. We have seen gigantic GDP drops, most nations have fallen into recession, and the global economy contracted by 4.4% in 2020.

While I know that the Polish economy has once again proven to be relatively crisis-resilient, with one of the lowest recessions in the European Union, it still contracted by 2.8%. Unemployment rates rose in the largest economies. Millions of workers transitioned to government-subsidized employment support schemes. The number of people traveling dropped by an order of magnitude, and the horeca sector closed its doors.

By limiting activity and reducing incomes far below pre-pandemic trends, the current pandemic will leave lasting scars. Considering what I've suggested, we can agree that the world has changed significantly: we are more distant, more digital, and more home-focused.
Global Acceleration
Globally, we are seeing an acceleration of many pre-Covid trends, and we expect them to continue: the shift to e-commerce, automation, contactless interactions, local deliveries, and "tele-everything." Moreover, the pandemic has created a global return to normality at varying speeds, favoring less-touch activities and high-income consumers.

A significant gap has emerged concerning jobs for minorities, women, and younger workers. The rollout of vaccinations and therapies is expected to keep the global economy on a path of slow recovery.

We at Mastercard have identified 6 key trends that I think perfectly summarize the outlook for 2021:
Trend 1: The E-conomy – It's Here to Stay
Firstly, everything digital – the e-conomy – is here to stay. In 2020, consumers and businesses quickly turned to the internet, and we estimate that 20-30% of the peak global shift to e-commerce will remain. In the US, for example, this shift accelerated by 2 years.

The transition to all things digital, from contactless payments and click-and-collect to "tele-everything," has been multi-generational, meaning your grandparents are now adept online shoppers too. According to our return-to-normalcy analysis, the e-evolution of commerce in 2020 amounted to $900 billion. This is how much more was spent in online retail stores in 2020 as Covid-19 kept consumers at home. Globally, e-commerce accounted for roughly one dollar out of every five spent in retail.

It appears that the digital gains of grocery and discount stores will persist: essential goods sectors, which had the smallest share of the digital market before the crisis, have seen the largest and most sustained gains. Food is an example: 70 to 80% of peak value is expected to be maintained.
Trend 2: E-commerce
Cross-border commerce has made great strides. The shift to a virtual world is also evident across borders as international e-commerce accelerates, both in terms of year-on-year growth and the number of countries where shoppers place orders. Consumers are shopping at up to 30% more online stores, reflecting an expansion of choice across various industries.

We estimate that the Covid-related lockdown accelerated the shift from cash to digital payments in American stores by one year, and by a significantly longer period worldwide.

It seems the business mantra is "Welcome to Digital Main Street." With many local restaurants and shops closing, 74% of new retail businesses established since April in the US alone have no physical storefronts. This trend will continue, with more companies creating virtual stores to reach more customers while minimizing costs.

From a consumer perspective, spending is happening at home. Kitchen tables have become classrooms, and bedrooms have turned into home offices, as lockdowns forced people to stay home longer and spend more money there. In 2021, people are expected to continue investing in their homes, with sectors like furniture and appliances reaping rich rewards everywhere from Brazil to Poland.
Trend 3: Renaissance of Domestic Travel
In the travel sector, the inability to travel internationally is leading to a renaissance of domestic travel. The pandemic has hit economies and travel-dependent industries particularly hard. However, as travel disruptions persist, benefits are emerging in markets where tourist scarcity was the norm, such as China, the UK, and Singapore.

China typically spent 1.7% of its GDP on foreign tourism. Spending such money domestically allows for a significant boost in domestic economic growth for those countries.
Trend 4: Nations Go Into Debt, People the Opposite
Politics: The saying here is that "government debt is rising, and consumers are saving more." The fiscal stimulus programs of 2020 overshadowed those of the 2008 financial crisis, and the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet grew by an amount equivalent to its growth over the previous 12 years in just 6 months.

Even emerging markets have joined the ranks of supporting their economies with capital injections. Meanwhile, we see consumers entering saving mode, reducing debt compared to previous years.

It is evident that the return to normality is not uniform. As I mentioned, the pandemic has caused a return at varying speeds. Meanwhile, rising housing and asset prices highlight income disparities, which I have also mentioned.

Hence the question: What does the return look like in Europe, given that a quarter of the year is already behind us?
Trend 5: Return to "Normalcy"
I would say the headline here should be: The Vaccine as a Chance to End Gas-and-Brake Economies. Europe's return to normality on a gas-and-brake basis seems to dominate at least the first half of 2021.

Consumer spending is falling as most of Europe is locked down, but we know that among the winners is the "household" sector, including building materials, gardening, floristry, bike shops, and sports goods. International travel has been practically impossible since Q4 of last year.

A look at last summer's data, before Europe experienced the second and third waves of the virus, indicates that Europeans are very eager to travel as soon as it becomes possible. Therefore, travel will increase during the upcoming summer. The economy has supported and extended furlough schemes, allowing millions of workers in Europe to receive wages throughout the past year and delaying the pandemic-induced labor market stress.

European governments have strongly supported incomes, which has increased savings, providing Europe with an additional tailwind. Households have put money in banks and paid off consumer loans. In this way, pent-up demand is revealed. We estimated that an additional $5 trillion has been saved globally. A significant portion of it is in Europe.

There is some evidence of a decline in births. In January, Poland recorded a 25% year-on-year drop in births, and last year was the worst for fertility in Poland since World War II.
Trend 6: Openness to Technological Change
Furthermore, looking ahead, what will the post-Covid world look like? More than a year after the crisis began, MasterCard research shows that the adoption of new payment technologies is increasing, and consumer appetite for new, fast, and flexible digital experiences continues to grow.

The new Mastercard Payments Index, conducted across 18 global markets, shows that 93% of people are considering using at least one new payment method, such as cryptocurrencies, biometrics, or contactless or QR code payments in the coming year.

Nearly two-thirds (63%) of respondents admitted to trying a new payment method they wouldn't have tried under normal circumstances. More than half of consumers say they avoid places that do not accept any electronic payments.

Contactless technology has been a digital catalyst, allowing exploration of new payment options for their speed, security, and contactless aspects. Between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021, over 100 markets experienced at least a 50% increase in contactless transactions across all in-person transactions.

In the first quarter of 2021 alone, Mastercard recorded one billion more contactless transactions than in the same period in 2020. All indications point to contactless transactions continuing to grow: this is clear. Consumers are also showing increasing interest in new payment technologies. As many as 71% of them expect to use cash less in the future. Interest in using cryptocurrencies is growing. They are particularly popular among millennials, a generation ready to adopt them.

Many people, especially millennials, say they are eager to use them, and their interest in cryptocurrencies is growing; if they understand them better, they will use them next year. Despite strong consumer interest in cryptocurrencies, there is still work to be done to ensure consumer choice, protection, and regulatory elements.

Biometric payments are gaining trust, and last year people considered perceived trust and convenience to be paramount. Therefore, more and more consumers are enjoying using biometrics at checkout. Six out of ten customers say they are excited about the possibility of biometric verification, such as gait analysis or fingerprint authorization.

They also feel significantly safer using biometrics to confirm a purchase than entering a PIN. Due to all these changes, businesses have been forced to quickly adopt new payment trends. Nearly 8 in 10 respondents prefer to shop in stores that function both physically and online, and 68% prefer to buy from a retailer offering the latest payment methods. I think we understand that interest in new technologies is growing.

In response to customer preferences for fast, contactless payment experiences, many retailers are transitioning to contactless payments. Currently, nearly 90% of in-person transactions globally occur at merchants equipped for contactless payments.











This change in behavior is reinforced by the consumer's desire for choice: 84% say they want to shop when and how they want. Therefore, companies that can provide diverse ways of shopping and paying have the greatest chance of meeting their expectations. As the demand for new payment methods and choices persists, a broader range of payment solutions, understanding, and products catering to the growing enthusiasm for future payment methods is required.
In Conclusion
I have briefly outlined how consumer purchasing behaviors have changed over the past year, shifting towards contactless payments and online commerce. As stores closed and social distancing was implemented, retailers worldwide moved their operations online, embraced e-commerce, and tested new payment methods.

It is evident that the pandemic has irrevocably changed our world, but many other factors are at play as well, such as powerful technologies that will bring about significant changes in commerce and payments, to mention 5G, IoT, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence.

The pandemic has accelerated digital transformation in all aspects of our lives, including financial services and payments. Looking at the Polish market, the above statements hold true. Poland, with its strong and resilient economy and consumers open to innovation and digital solutions, remains one of the key markets for our future investments, and we will cooperate with our business partners and the government to assist in this digital transformation.

* * * The text is a transcription of Gilberto Caldart's speech during the Impact'21 conference on May 12, 2021.

"One of the biggest problems to solve in the 21st century is the crisis of transport and mobility" – said Dr. Nancy Vandycke, head of the World Bank's sustainable mobility program, at Impact '21. The Transport Crisis Vandycke noted that new technologies are widely considered fascinating but do not solve all contemporary problems. "Hyper-digitalization offers a powerful opportunity for the development of electromobility," she said. Among these, she mentioned vehicle upgrades such as cameras, sensors, and software that will optimize vehicle performance. "Cameras tracking traffic will calculate its intensity and prompt changes in traffic lights at intersections to regulate congestion and reduce CO2 emissions," she said. Autonomous vehicles, smart infrastructure, and a global smart mobility market will bring enormous profits, most of which have so far belonged to Europe. Despite these technological conveniences, none are sufficient to solve the transport crisis, Vandycke stated. "In 30 years, 3 billion cars will be on the roads," she said. "This means one car for every 3 inhabitants of our planet." As she explained, this will result in immense traffic jams and a related decline in quality of life, as well as the risk of death from car accidents. "At this moment, transport – one of the largest emitters – is becoming a sector where changes must occur to reverse climate change," Vandycke said. "No country in the world, developed or developing, has a properly functioning transport system. The only way to solve this complex and multifaceted problem is to shift gears and act innovatively," she said. Reversing the Transport Crisis: Sustainable Mobility "We have great ambitions – to reverse the current transport crisis," stated the World Bank expert. As she explained, transport is more than just cars, buses, metros, bicycles, trains, and airplanes. The transport system of the future should not only be efficient but also safe and good for the environment. To achieve this goal, it is essential to collect data that will form the foundation of a good transport system. Meanwhile, as Vandycke points out, collecting this data is very costly, and most cities cannot afford it at the moment. New technologies based on data collection can allow city residents to choose new routes to their destinations, and moreover, authorities can make well-informed decisions about creating new transport connections and their routes. Achieving this goal requires cooperation between the public and private sectors, the adoption of new technologies, and public participation. "In our opinion, transport is a complex system that should provide four things: be accessible to everyone, efficient, safe, and green," said Vandycke.

Booksy, Brainly, and Docplanner – these three Polish startups have a chance to achieve the status of a "unicorn," a company valued at at least $1 billion – according to the discussion "In Search of a Polish Unicorn," which took place at the Impact’21 congress. "Our task is to support the startup ecosystem so that it is stable, as transparent as possible, and conducive to the emergence of unicorns, i.e., young companies with huge development potential," said Bartłomiej Samsonowicz from PFR Ventures during the discussion panel. Significantly, our country still has not a single unicorn – a startup valued at at least $1 billion. Currently, the highest-valued unicorn from Central and Eastern Europe is the Romanian company UIPath ($35 billion), which creates systems for automating office work, known as Robotic Process Automation. Recently, the Lithuanian company Vinted, which created an online platform for trading used clothing, crossed the $1 billion valuation barrier. The Estonian company Bolt is also a unicorn from the region. When Will We Have a Polish Unicorn? "We are on the right track, but let's remember that unicorn status is just a stage of development to become a company with international potential. Currently, we have a comfortable situation in Poland in the form of relatively easily accessible capital for startups, provided they meet the appropriate business criteria," indicates Tomasz Swoboda from Inovo Venture Partners. Marcin Kurek from Market One Capital pointed to three candidates who could achieve "unicorn" status this year. These are DocPlanner, Booksy, and Brainly.

The European Union plans a massive increase in offshore wind energy production by 2050 – stated Giles Dickson from WindEurope, the Brussels-based association promoting wind energy, during Impact ‘21. Europe's installed offshore capacity is set to quintuple by 2030. As Dickson mentioned, one of the significant countries where new wind farms will be built is Poland. In addition to Poland, new farms will primarily be constructed in the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, and France. Giles Dickson stated that the development of wind farms will become increasingly cheaper and remains consistent with EU objectives. "Offshore wind energy has become very cheap, with production costs falling spectacularly," Dickson said. He explained that the driving force behind this price drop was developing technology. He also pointed out that the development of offshore farms also brings revenue to the European economy and creates new jobs. Legislative Solutions Another simplification that Poland is already planning to implement is so-called contracts for difference, entered into between companies investing in offshore and the government. Thanks to these contracts, the cost of electricity from a given wind farm is averaged. If prices rise, the government reimburses the difference to the company; if prices fall, the company pays the government. According to Dickson, this solution lowers the cost of electricity from offshore wind farms and reduces risk for investors. Therefore, it can help them develop investments in offshore farms more quickly. International Cooperation Dickson also indicated that international cooperation will also aid the development of offshore wind energy. He highlighted hybrid wind farms, such as artificial islands off the coast of Denmark, which are being built on shared territories of different countries. Such solutions will make it possible to save money and sea space and utilize transmission networks more effectively. Dickson also said that for the development of offshore wind energy, a targeted development of ports will be necessary. Among important locations for offshore development in this context, he pointed to the port of Gdynia, among others.

"Women are not involved in designing the future." It's time for women to get involved in business and technology, because it pays off – said Ann Cairns from Mastercard during Impact '21. Many companies declare their concern for gender balance, i.e., gender equality, but real changes do not always follow – noted Marek Tejchman from Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, who discussed the benefits that gender equality brings to a company with Ann Cairns, Executive Vice President at MasterCard and head of the 30% Club, an organization working to include women in business employment worldwide. "Gender equality in business is an absolute business imperative," Cairns said. "McKinsey shows in a report that the most diverse companies – the top quartile – achieve about 25 percent better performance in the market." She noted that major investors have begun to demand that management boards and supervisory boards be more gender-diverse. "The reason they are doing this is that they see improved company performance, and they want to maximize their profits. Larry Fink of Blackrock sent out his now-famous letters on this subject," she said. Hiring Women Pays Off Ann Cairns added that while hiring women alongside men brings business benefits, it cannot be achieved without cultural change. She referred to the activities of the 30% Club, of which she is president. Its work involves encouraging company leaders and CEOs worldwide to ensure that women constitute at least 30 percent of their boards and teams. "The reason the 30% Club is so successful in places like Australia, the UK, and the United States is that the CEOs and leaders who are members of the club are men supporting women – because most of them are men – who, on behalf of their companies, have pledged that they want more than 30 percent women on their boards, and they want more than 30 percent in their sales teams. This is not a target, it's a baseline. It's also the moment when you see the change happening," she said. How Does Equality Benefit Business and Increase Company Profits? "Company boards also manage stakeholders, and this includes what you do for your employees, customers, or communities. (...) All these things influence how your business is perceived by society and the market. Often by governments and regulators as well." "You gain more than just monetary benefits," Cairns added. "If I were to refer to my industry and Mastercard – 85 percent of daily purchasing decisions are made by women. Everywhere in the world. What is the reason for this? It is women who go shopping, women who choose what to buy. And if we, at Mastercard, do not acknowledge this and do not tailor our product development, our sales, and our marketing to recognize that women are a very large customer segment – then we would not be successful," she said. Women to Co-Create the Future "Women are also lacking in the technology sector," Cairns stated. "I believe that women are not involved in designing the future, and the future will include things like artificial intelligence, the adoption of 5G, and so on. We are losing key aspects here. For example, when the Apple Watch measured everything related to the human body – how your heart beats, steps, etc. – what did they not measure for some time? A woman's biological cycle. And this is really important – probably for half of Apple Watch users on this planet. And it should also be important for the other half of Apple Watch users!" said the Mastercard executive. "How can something like that be overlooked in the design process? This shows that we need more women designing technical solutions," she added.

What do we need green hydrogen for, and can the production of hydrogen from energy generated by offshore wind farms change the industrial world? This was discussed by guests at Impact’21 – Anu Quelhas from EDP Renewables, Hando Sutter from Enefit, Bartosz Sokoliński from the Industrial Development Agency, and Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera from Forum Energii. One of the first issues raised during the panel was the method of hydrogen production. Several technologies are used in this area within the energy industry. In the context of Poland's economic development and climate commitments, a decision must be made on which of these will be the most promising choice – indicated Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera, President of Forum Energii, a think tank analyzing data and global trends in innovative, clean energy. "Of course, the most promising choice is green hydrogen, which is produced using renewable energy sources. To meet Poland's energy demand with ecological hydrogen, the construction of many power plants powered in this way will be necessary," said Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera. "We must fully commit to decarbonization, and I believe that is precisely what we are observing – otherwise, we wouldn't be specifically discussing the technology of green hydrogen production," said Ana Quelhas, Hydrogen Business Director at EDP Renewables, a company that is one of the leaders in the renewable energy sector and the third-largest wind energy producer globally.