The coming year will primarily be defined by two campaigns: the European one and the most important one, the parliamentary elections. Politicians are already admitting that it will be a "fight for everything" – further PiS rule will cement the changes introduced in the last three years, while a victory for the opposition – provided someone from the anti-PiS camp becomes president in 2020 – will trigger another revolution through the so-called Act of Democratic Renewal. The final outcome of the autumn elections will be influenced by several factors, including the unification of the opposition and Robert Biedroń's new initiative. And it is precisely these issues we address in our five political questions for 2019.

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Will Tusk Return. Looking at the electoral calendar, Donald Tusk's potential candidacy in the 2020 presidential elections is a possibility. Although he himself has hinted on several occasions that a return to Polish politics is possible, and many commentators have taken his comeback as a certainty, a firm declaration – likely due to his current position – has never been made. It is true that the President of the European Council is best able to mobilize opposition supporters, provoke PiS politicians, or deliver fiery political speeches. But will Tusk decide to return without any guarantee of success, considering Andrzej Duda's high approval ratings? It seems he has not yet decided himself, and the parliamentary elections will influence his decision. Regardless, 2019 will be a year of decisions. It is equally plausible to imagine another opposition candidate for president, such as Rafał Trzaskowski. The Mayor of Warsaw, after a little over a year in office, and despite a weak start, will not have had time to become “worn out.” In such a scenario, Tusk could continue his European career – a leading PiS politician believes he could replace Joseph Daul as the leader of the EPP.

Will PiS Bounce Back. This is arguably the key question for 2019: is Jarosław Kaczyński's party still capable of winning. PiS's not-so-bad result at the regional assembly level was overshadowed by the second round of elections, defeat in virtually all cities, and subsequently, the KNF scandal, which, more seriously than in years, brought renewed attention to irregularities in the SKOK system. The ruling camp is clearly seeking a new approach – the end of the year saw a shrewd move with a motion of no confidence and two conventions where rather laconic announcements of new economic projects, a shift towards the EU, and suggestions of a course correction were made. A symptomatic move was, for example, the promotion of politicians like Jadwiga Emilewicz. Our interlocutors admit that there is a need to set the agenda for the campaign, but it was too early for that before Christmas. On the other hand, Jarosław Gowin is already mentioning the Prime Minister's New Year's address regarding tax cuts. For now – polls show this – PiS is leading, but this advantage is no longer as significant as it was a few months ago.

Will the EU Dismantle the KRS. Although the latest amendment to the Act on the Supreme Court was considered a prestigious failure for PiS – after all, politicians from this party had spoken about the former First President for months – the remaining part of the so-called judicial reform has, at least for now, been maintained. The issue of the Supreme Court will truly be closed with the publication of the aforementioned amendment, and 2019 will be decided by the KRS [National Council of the Judiciary]. At the beginning of January, a Constitutional Tribunal hearing will take place, and on March 19th, a hearing at the CJEU [Court of Justice of the European Union] will address the questions from the Supreme Court regarding, among other things, the Krajowa Rada Sądownictwa's [National Council of the Judiciary's] capacity to fulfill its constitutional duty of upholding the independence of the courts. Any necessity for further changes would be a major problem for PiS, especially during the European campaign. On the other hand, if the European Commission lets the Polish government off the hook after the latest amendment, the dispute will naturally subside somewhat, and accusations of Polexit will lose their significance.

Will Biedroń Succeed. A symbolic figure for the current represented by Robert Biedroń, and someone who knows him well from politics, believes that his political initiative has a chance to achieve 15% support in the parliamentary elections, which would effectively give him a kingmaker position and minimize PiS's chances for a second term – it is difficult to imagine a coalition between Biedroń and that party. Biedroń has announced a founding congress for the beginning of February, and the first serious test awaits him in May, during the European elections. It will then become clear whether the new party has a chance to repeat the success of, for instance, the Palikot Movement, or perhaps even surpass it. One of the leading politicians of the ruling camp admits to us that he follows reports from the meetings of the former Mayor of Słupsk and expects that, in the long run, he may turn out to be the leading competitor to the right-wing.

Will the Opposition Unite. Theoretically, considering the d'Hondt method, a united opposition bloc – from Platforma, Nowoczesna, to SLD or Razem – would have the greatest chance of removing PiS from power. However, the unification of the entire opposition is not so obvious – it is equally plausible to imagine, for example, two or three blocs being formed. It seems rather certain, especially after the results of the last elections, that PSL will join Platforma – even if under the EPP banner. But it is difficult to predict what SLD, Teraz, or the Razem party, or even Robert Biedroń (in case of a worse result in the European elections), will do, especially after Grzegorz Schetyna's recent volte-face and the absorption of Nowoczesna MPs. Political leaders still have some time for discussions; unification can occur gradually, as the European elections precede the parliamentary ones.

Photo: FB Donald Tusk