state of play: 07/03/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Poof! It's 2013 Again, and We're Younger! The Last Time Tusk Had Such Dire Approval Ratings Was 12 Years Ago

Łukasz Mężyk

-- BOSAK: WE ARE READY TO ATTRACT VOTERS FROM POLAND 2050, PSL, AND DISILLUSIONED CIVIC PLATFORM VOTERS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/03/ -- THE TREND OF THE PRIME MINISTER'S RATINGS DETERIORATING HAS CONTINUED FOR THE THIRD MONTH - CBOS ANALYSTS WRITE: “The current level of satisfaction with Donald Tusk leading the government stands at 32% (a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to May). Simultaneously, the percentage of people declaring dissatisfaction with this fact has increased by 5 points, to 58%. Over the past few months, the satisfaction index fluctuated within a narrow range, but it has been falling quite consistently since March. In June, satisfaction reached its lowest level, and dissatisfaction its highest since the inception of this government”. https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=7049 -- DISSATISFACTION WITH DONALD TUSK LEADING THE GOVERNMENT 2025: 52 January 51 February 50 March 51 April 53 May 58 June -- DISSATISFACTION WITH DONALD TUSK LEADING THE GOVERNMENT 2013: 57 March 2013 59 April 2013 60 May 2013 59 June 2013 59 July 2013 62 August 2013 -- BEATA SZYDŁO, UPON LEAVING THE OFFICE OF PRIME MINISTER IN DECEMBER 2017, HAD: 49% satisfied that she held the position 39% dissatisfied -- MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI, UPON LEAVING THE OFFICE OF PRIME MINISTER AFTER THE 2023 ELECTIONS, HAD: -- 36% satisfied that Morawiecki was leading the government -- 53% dissatisfied. -- DISSATISFACTION WITH MORAWIECKI LEADING THE GOVERNMENT - 2023: 55 January 2023 49 February 2023 49 March 2023 52 April 2023 56 May 2023 55 June 2023 57 July 2023 48 August 2023 52 September 2023 53 October 2023 53 November 2023 *** -- IT COULD HAPPEN, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THE NEED ARISES TO FIND A PRIME MINISTER UNITING A NEW COALITION AGREEMENT. IF SUCH A PROPOSAL WERE MADE TO ME, I WOULD NOT HESITATE - PRESIDENT ANDRZEJ DUDA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH NIEDZIELA GOŚĆ: “However, if there were other challenges. It could happen, for example, that the need arises to find a prime minister uniting a new coalition agreement. If such a proposal were made to me, I would not hesitate – he said”. https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2025-07-03/prezydent-wprost-o-stanowisku-premiera-nie-wahalbym-sie/ -- IN THE 2027 ELECTIONS, LIBERTARIANS NEED THEIR OWN PARTY - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “The economy must be managed by those who know how to do it and take material responsibility for their decisions, i.e., private entrepreneurs. The liberal electorate needs a party implementing precisely such a program”. -- NEPOTISM AND FAVORITISM HAVE NOT YET REACHED THE SAME PROPORTIONS UNDER THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT AS UNDER THE PiS GOVERNMENT, BUT THEY ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMMON - GADOMSKI CONTINUES: “Civic Platform has become a party of power. Nepotism and favoritism have not yet reached the same proportions under the current government as under the PiS government, but they are becoming increasingly common. For this reason, the parties forming the current government are perceived by an ever-larger segment of voters as primarily pursuing their own interests”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32073345,okiem-liberala-w-wyborach-2027-r-liberalowie-potrzebuja-wlasnej.html -- KRZYSZTOF BOSAK: THE INTENSIFICATION OF PROTESTS HAS CAUSED A DECREASE IN GERMAN SERVICES' ACTIVITY in transferring migrants to Poland. And Poles are massively showing solidarity with the protesters. https://x.com/krzysztofbosak/status/1940674648699818399 -- DONALD TUSK, ENTERING INTO A CONFRONTATION OVER THE BORDER IN A RESTRICTIVE MANNER, IS FIGHTING TO CONFIRM THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFECTIVENESS. BUT BY DOING SO, HE IS ENTERING A ARENA WHERE JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI USUALLY WINS - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ. -- TUSK VALIDATES THE PiS NARRATIVE - CHRABOTA CONTINUES IN RZ: “Two important points: tactically, Tusk is right to engage in a confrontation over the border in a restrictive manner. Strategically – he might be making a mistake that Kaczyński is just waiting for. He is, after all, validating the PiS narrative and opening the field for electoral confrontation around a topic dictated by the right. This could have dire consequences not in 2027, but much earlier”. https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42643081-boguslaw-chrabota-donald-tusk-brnie-w-granice-to-bardzo-ryzykowne -- HOŁOWNIA HAS NO POLITICAL INTEREST IN ENDORSING THE CIVIC COALITION'S NARRATIVE ABOUT ELECTION FRAUD - MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “Szymon Hołownia has no political interest in endorsing the Civic Coalition's narrative about election fraud. Nor in supporting the whispers to not convene the National Assembly and not accept the oath from the new president, Karol Nawrocki”. -- CIVIC PLATFORM? IS LEFT WITH THE MESS IT MADE FOR ITSELF - KOLANKO CONTINUES IN RZ: “This is another layer that is important to the Marshal of the Sejm. Hołownia has repeatedly said that many predicted his quick political death. Now this is being repeated. But he emphasizes that he wants to stay in politics for longer. He thinks in terms of a longer perspective than current polls. Rafał Trzaskowski, who has not spoken a single word on the matter of alleged election fraud so far, also thinks similarly. And Civic Platform? Is left with the mess it made for itself”. https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art42643181-michal-kolanko-dlaczego-szymon-holownia-nie-gra-w-wyborczy-scenariusz-po -- PRIME MINISTER JERZY BUZEK TURNS 85. LESZEK MILLER IS 79. -- 15 YEARS AGO, Bronisław Komorowski defeated Jarosław Kaczyński in the second round of the presidential election after the tragic death of President Lech Kaczyński. -- 36 YEARS AGO, the inaugural sessions of the 10th term Sejm and the 1st term Senate took place. -- BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Buzek, Leszek Miller, Czesław Ryszka, Barbara Bartuś, Dorota Masłowska, Krzysztof Pacewicz, Małgorzata Naukowicz.

Łukasz Mężyk