Yesterday's State of Play
-- NAWROCKI TALKS WITH TRUMP: THE HIGHWAY TO PERMANENT U.S. TROOP PRESENCE IN POLAND IS OPEN - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-07-08/
-- HARD-RIGHT GAINS GROUND - RZ POLL: “The biggest winners in this poll are the far-right parties. Konfederacja is gaining 13.3% support (up from 12.5%), which translates to 72 seats. Closely following is Konfederacja Korony Polskiej with 11% (a jump from 8.8%) and 54 seats. These formations could become kingmakers in forming a future government on the right.”
-- PIS DECLINES EVEN AMID GOVERNMENT PROBLEMS: “Despite the difficulties faced by its main competitor, Law and Justice (PiS) is not seeing an increase in support. 23.2% of respondents want to vote for Jarosław Kaczyński's party (two months ago – 25.4%), resulting in 136 seats. This indicates that PiS's electorate remains stable but is not growing, even when facing challenges from the Civic Coalition (KO).”
https://www.rmf24.pl/fakty/polska/news-najnowszy-sondaz-poparcia-dla-partii-skrajna-prawica-rosnie-,nIdn,1009116
-- WILL TUSK MANAGE TO BREAK THIS ATMOSPHERE OF DECLINE THAT HAS APPEARED SO QUICKLY AFTER 2023, AS IF IT WERE THE END OF THE SECOND, NOT THE FIRST TERM? - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “These are signals that may prompt many to reflect on whether it's pragmatically wise to get involved with the current government, especially since the polls do not suggest a continuation of the October 15th coalition's rule. Is it worth creating ambitious projects if PiS returns and demolishes everything? Will Tusk manage to break this atmosphere of decline, which has emerged surprisingly quickly after 2023, as if it were already the end of the second, not the first term? The situation, despite everything, is not hopeless, because PiS – apart from promises of revenge – doesn't have many other ideas.”
-- THE QUESTION ARISES ABOUT THE CONTENT OF THE FINAL PHASE OF THIS TERM: WILL IT BE GOVERNMENT FIREWORKS, OR FINAL, DECLINING SCANDALS - CONTINUES THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The question arises about the content of the final phase of this term: will it be government fireworks, or declining, final scandals. PiS is doing everything to move into the stage of scandals that will end KO, portraying the party as a hotbed of moral rot (Kłodzko) and corruption (hospitals). The hospital scandal has already been put on trailers towed around, especially in the provinces, meaning PiS places great hopes in it. A decade ago, the then-opposition Civic Platform organized a similar trailer campaign after the scandal involving bonuses for Beata Szydło's government, and gained a lot from it.”
-- A GOVERNMENT OFFENSIVE WITH NEW, SYSTEMIC HEALTH SOLUTIONS, BROUGHT TO FRUITION, COULD BE THE BEST WAY OUT OF THIS OPPRESSION - CONTINUES JANICKI: “However, a government offensive with new, systemic health solutions, brought to fruition, could be the best way out of this oppression, and perhaps even material for an election campaign, especially if it can be recalled that PiS is primarily behind the current system that allows for these pathologies to be exposed.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2349335,1,operacja-multikryzys-pis-chce-wpedzic-ko-w-spirale-afer-to-maja-byc-nowe-osmiorniczki.read
-- THE REACTION IS LATE, FEEBLE, AND EXPEDIENT. TUSK HAS ONCE AGAIN SLIPPED INTO POLITICAL SLUMBER - CIVIC COALITION INSIDERS SAY - ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: “But the prime minister's late, feeble, and expedient reaction to the rot in Warsaw's structures – these are the words of disgruntled politicians from the ruling party – is only part of the picture. One day Tusk throws out an idea, his people activate the state machinery, and a week later he forgets about it all – specialists from the prime minister's inner circle are frustrated. Karol Nawrocki has surrounded himself with professionals, while Donald Tusk has again locked himself in his office. And that's why the prime minister is politically losing to the president.”
-- MANY OF US FEEL LIKE WE ARE WORKING IN A TOTAL, EVER-WORSENING CHAOS. I WAS PULLED FROM THE MARKET, I AGREED TO WORK FOR EMBARRASSING MONEY - A BITTER ACCOUNT FROM ANOTHER GOVERNMENT SPECIALIST - CONTINUES GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: “Many of us feel like we are working in a total, ever-worsening chaos. I was pulled here from the market, I agreed to work for embarrassing money because, firstly, I have unique competencies that can help the government, and secondly, working for the prime minister would help my career – says another government specialist bitterly.”
-- THE BRAIN OF THIS PRESIDENCY IS PAWEŁ SZEFERNAKER, WHO, HAVING SUCCESSFULLY MANAGED THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN, MAINTAINS ORDER, PREVENTS MULTIPLE TOPICS FROM BEING INTRODUCED SIMULTANEOUSLY, AND CARES ABOUT THE MESSAGE - CONTINUES GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: “– Furthermore, the brain of this presidency is Paweł Szefernaker, who, having successfully managed the election campaign, maintains order, prevents multiple topics from being introduced simultaneously, and cares about the message. So far, the mechanism is working perfectly. It's a journalistically tempting perspective: the president has surrounded himself with efficient organizers, so he's winning the political duel with the prime minister, while Tusk only listens to the whispers of a few people, so he must be losing.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32899406,reakcja-spozniona-mdla-i-koniunkturalna-tusk-znow-zapadl-w.html
-- WHEN TUSK TOOK POWER, HE ALLOWED PARTY CADRES TO DESCEND UPON THE STATE LIKE VULTURES ON A CARCASS - LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA: “When Tusk took power, he allowed party cadres to descend upon the state like vultures on a carcass, forgetting that he won not through the normal democratic rotation of parties, but on a wave of moral outrage. This is because he promised Poles a different, better, nobler government. That commitment is now backfiring on him. The scandal has struck at the very heart of the narrative of moral renewal, which was supposed to remove the incompetent and corrupt PiS government from power.”
-- THE PROMISE OF MORAL RENEWAL WAS FOR PO IN THE 2023 CAMPAIGN WHAT THE FIGHT AGAINST ELITES IN THE NAME OF THE PEOPLE WAS FOR PIS - CONTINUES JAŻDŻEWSKI: “The '100 Concrete Actions' were rather random postulates written hastily on a piece of paper to have a program-like product for the elections. But the promise of moral renewal was for PO in the 2023 campaign what the fight against elites in the name of the people was for PiS. Its raison d'être. If this is lacking, then nothing will remain of the mission that Tusk undertook when he returned from Brussels to Poland almost exactly five years ago.”
-- THE PRIME MINISTER SHOULD DECLARE A "STATE OF EMERGENCY" IN HEALTHCARE, MOBILIZING EXTRAORDINARY MEANS TO COMBAT PATHOLOGIES, TUSK WILL EITHER HIMSELF LEAD THE MOVEMENT FOR THE MORAL RENEWAL OF THE STATE, OR HE WILL FALL VICTIM TO IT - JAŻDŻEWSKI'S CONCLUSION IN INTERIA: “The prime minister should also declare a 'state of emergency' in healthcare, mobilizing extraordinary means to combat pathologies. No one expects miracles, but elementary solidarity of the elites with the people, who are stuck in ever-longer queues while politicians travel in limousines to VIP lounges, and doctors drive their expensive cars to private clinics. Even a temporary loss of majority in the Sejm will not be as painful for him as a permanent loss of public support and the conviction that 'PiS-PO, one evil.' This is the shortest path to losing power to the dishonor of anti-European right-wingers. Tusk will either himself lead the movement for the moral renewal of the state, or he will fall victim to it.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-wybor-tuska-polska-czy-partia,nId,23510072
-- HE AVOIDS REFORMS, "HE'S WAITING IT OUT" - COALITION PARTNERS COMMENT - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “The most likely scenario is the resignation of the head of the National Health Fund (NFZ) and leaving the health minister in office for a few more months. But: 'There is no will for resignation visible from Tusk. There is also no will for reforms. He avoids reforms.' 'He's waiting it out,' comment coalition partners.”
https://oko.press/koalicja-w-kryzysie-po-aferze-szpitalnej
-- THE LEFT ON TOUR COUNTS ON THE "WŁODEK EFFECT" - TOMASZ NYCZKA IN GW: “– We've actually had a decent polling average lately, even within the 8% range. The tour is designed so that ministers are present, but also Czarzasty, because the aim is to translate his popularity and support into party support, as it's not the same thing. I think it's gradually happening, but it should be much more pronounced. To get at least a few extra percent, to reach 10% or even more in the elections, I believe it's within our reach – says another New Left parliamentarian.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32899018,kryzys-w-koalicji-a-lewica-chce-pokazac-co-dowiozla-liczymy.html
-- THE GOVERNMENT DEFENDS ITSELF ON THE ISSUE OF PATRIOTS BY ADOPTING SŁAWOMIR MENTZEN'S NARRATIVE - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “The narrative that Poland was disarmed during PiS rule by transferring large quantities of military equipment to Ukraine is alive both in Konfederacja and in Grzegorz Braun's Konfederacja Korony Polskiej. And the government clearly intends to frame the entire discussion in this way.”
-- A STRONG KONFEDERACJA, NOT PIS, IS BENEFICIAL FOR THE COALITION - CONTINUES BARTKIEWICZ: “This, on the one hand, offers a glimmer of hope that KO could present Konfederacja with an offer to build an alternative majority. On the other hand, even if a three-part right-wing government is formed after the elections, its stability will be significantly lower and its susceptibility to crisis greater than if a strong PiS were calling the shots. This is why, paradoxically, the government largely directs its message to the voters of both Konfederacjas. It's a situation where the political enemy's competitor becomes a tactical ally.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art44781411-artur-bartkiewicz-rzad-broni-sie-w-sprawie-patriotow-siegajac-po-narracje-slawomira-mentzena
-- SIGNATURES FOR THE WARSAW REFERENDUM WILL BE COLLECTED DURING THE HOLIDAYS ON PURPOSE - MACIEJ WILK IN A STATEMENT TO MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “– They sometimes ask me if I've gone crazy wanting to collect signatures during the holidays. I believe we need to capitalize on the emotions now, because such an opportunity window won't be open forever – Wilk tells us. – July in Warsaw is indeed a dead month, but August looks completely different. There are celebrations on August 1st and 15th, Legia matches, concerts, and festivals. These are plenty of opportunities to reach residents and encourage them to sign the petition. That's why I want to start by the end of July. This will give us the entire month of August and almost the entire month of September. And we will use the coming days and weeks for preparations for the campaign, logistics and more – Wilk tells us. He adds that if the referendum takes place, it will most likely be in December this year.”
-- HALF A MILLION VOTERS ARE NEEDED FOR THE REFERENDUM TO BE VALID - CONTINUES KOLANKO: “(In Warsaw, for the theoretical recall of Mayor Trzaskowski, the participation of 467,000 residents would be required. Such a high threshold is a result of Trzaskowski's success in the first round of elections in 2024 and high turnout. Participation in the referendum is counted as 3/5 of the number of people who voted for the person subject to the referendum).”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art44776911-kiedy-w-warszawie-odbedzie-sie-referendum-znamy-szczegoly-proby-odwolania-trzaskowskiego
-- BIRTHDAYS: Mirosława Stachowiak-Różecka, Mirosław Drzewiecki, Stanisław Koziej.
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