Yesterday's State of Play

POLITICAL GAME: Sadura: The Middle Class is Looking to Konfederacja, Might Consider Morawiecki; Schetyna: The Right Wing Will Be Restructured, the President Will Play a Key Role

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SIWIEC: HE SHOULD ATTEND AND BE IN SUCH A PLACE, BECAUSE MORE RELATIONS ARE GOOD, FEWER RELATIONS ARE BAD - 300LIVE: If every president invited every Polish president, he should always attend and be in such a place, because more relations are good, fewer relations are bad. All the stories about him having to pay his own way are nonsense.
https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-06-12/

-- GOLD CUFFLINKS WILL BE GIFTED TO PRESIDENT TRUMP - SEhttps://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/nawrocki-leci-na-urodziny-prezydenta-usa-wiadomo-co-wreczy-w-prezencie-trumpowi-aa-PyYo-SRg3-aZJn.html

-- ON JANUARY 9, 2024, THE POLISH BANK ASSOCIATION ADMITTED THE ZONDACRYPTO CRYPTOCURRENCY EXCHANGE TO ITS STRUCTURES. THREE MONTHS LATER, THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE RECEIVED COMMENTS ON THE CRYPTO-ASSETS ACT FROM THE PBA, WRITTEN BY PRZEMYSŁAW KRAL - KAROLINA WYSOTA AND SZYMON JADCZAK IN WP: “On January 9, 2024, the Polish Bank Association (ZBP) admitted the Zondacrypto cryptocurrency exchange to its structures. Three months later, the Ministry of Finance received comments on the crypto-assets act from the ZBP, written by Przemysław Kral, the CEO of the controversial company. All state-controlled banks belong to the ZBP. And according to the ABW and Donald Tusk, Zondacrypto was infiltrated by Russians. Five weeks after Zondacrypto was admitted to the ZBP Bank Cybersecurity Committee, it received draft regulations that were intended to directly regulate the activity of cryptocurrency exchanges in Poland. ZBP provided Zonda with materials it received by email from officials of the Financial Market Development Department at the Ministry of Finance.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/jak-zondacrypto-pisala-ustawe-z-pomoca-bankowcow-7295746567305216a.html

-- PARTICULAR ATTENTION WAS DRAWN TO THE DECLARATION OF DAWID KACPRZYK, A KO COUNCILLOR FOR THE URSUS DISTRICT, WHO WORKS AS A DOCTOR AND IS SPECIALIZING IN ANESTHESIOLOGY, EARNING AN INCOME OF PLN 1,595,000 - BUSINESS INSIDER
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/rekordowe-zarobki-lekarza-z-ko-wielu-moze-o-takich-pomarzyc/60v59s3

-- DONALD TUSK UNDERSTANDS HIS VOTERS FROM 20 YEARS AGO. THEY WERE 40 THEN, TODAY THEY ARE TWENTY YEARS OLDER - THE KO ELECTORATE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY AGED, LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKE KOD MARCHES, WHICH ALSO GATHER MAINLY THE MIDDLE-AGED GENERATION - SAYS PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “He perfectly understands his voters from 20 years ago. They were 40 then, today they are twenty years older – the KO electorate has significantly aged, it increasingly resembles KOD marches, which also gather mainly the middle-aged generation. I don't say this with disdain, I often attend meetings with these voters, they are hungry for discussion, they have valuable life experience – but there are really no forty-year-olds there, let alone younger age groups.”

-- THE MIDDLE CLASS IS LOOKING TOWARDS KONFEDERACJA. AS ALL PARTIES AND ALL ELECTORATES HAVE RADICALIZED, AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND, KONFEDERACJA DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A RADICAL PARTY AT ALL - SADURA CONTINUES AT MAJMUREK'S: “The middle class is looking towards Konfederacja. Many twenty and thirty-somethings have already gravitated there, and forty-somethings are watching with interest. Konfederacja has successfully emerged from the niche of a radical party for twenty-year-olds, where Janusz Korwin-Mikke's various initiatives have languished for years. Because all parties and all electorates have radicalized, against this background, Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość, this Bosak and Mentzen party, does not look like a radical party at all. Perhaps if a new initiative in the style of Polska 2050 emerged, capable of offering an interesting narrative and bold program ideas, it could attract some of the middle-aged middle class, who are not finding themselves in KO's offering.”

-- A MODERNIZING NARRATIVE CAN BE SUCCESSFULLY SOLD POLITICALLY IN POLAND FROM THE CENTER-RIGHT RATHER THAN THE LEFT, IF MORAWIECKI WERE TO MOVE MORE STRONGLY IN THIS DIRECTION - SADURA FURTHER AT MAJMUREK'S IN NEWSWEEK: “Among the middle class from the 80s generation and younger, there is a desire for an efficient state and high-quality public services, but the left is completely unable to capitalize on this politically, being too preoccupied with internal struggles. Paradoxically, such a modernizing narrative, promising a modern welfare state, can be successfully sold politically in Poland from the center-right rather than the left: for example, if something new emerged from the ruins of Polska 2050, or if Morawiecki were to move even more strongly in this direction.”

-- THE PROBLEM OF KO LIES MAINLY IN THE FACT THAT IT PRACTICALLY HAS NO "CYNICAL ELECTORATE" WHO WOULD SEE THEIR PERSONAL INTEREST IN THIS PARTY'S CONTINUED RULE - CLAIMS PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA: “The problem of KO lies mainly in the fact that it practically has no "cynical electorate" who would see their personal interest in this party's continued rule. There are very few such people in Poland. KO has either a "skeptical electorate," which can easily be demobilized and stay home, or a "fanatical electorate," which on the one hand is loyal and mobilized, and on the other hand causes certain problems for every party.”

-- CONSIDERING PIS'S PROBLEMS, DESPITE ALL THE ISSUES I MENTIONED, TUSK CAN STILL SECURE ANOTHER TERM IN GOVERNMENT IN A YEAR'S TIME - SAYS SADURA: “Fortunately for Kaczyński and Tusk, we have such a demographic pyramid that one can rule mainly by relying on the fanatical 50+ electorate. For some time yet, Polish politics will remain in the grip of these two leaders' reserves, even though they themselves will be increasingly weakening. Considering PiS's problems, despite all the issues I've mentioned, Tusk can still secure another term in government in a year's time.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/klasa-srednia-odplywa-od-donalda-tuska-on-nie-rozumie-nowych-realiow/md9r5g1,452ad802

-- THE POLITICAL INITIATIVE BY KO COUNCILLORS TO REMOVE LECH KACZYŃSKI'S NAME FROM A STREET NAME MAY BURY THE CHANCE OF A PRESIDENTIAL SIGNATURE, AND THE FORMER PRESIDENT'S STREET WILL REMAIN IN GDAŃSK ANYWAY - KRZYSZTOF KATKA IN GW: “Local government officials from Gdańsk and Pomerania are lobbying the Presidential Chancellery for Karol Nawrocki's signature on the metropolitan act, which is crucial for the region. The Senate has even adopted amendments indicated by the president's people, but on the same day it turned out that KO councillors in Gdańsk want to change the name of Lech Kaczyński street. The metropolitan act for Pomerania, awaited for over a dozen years, is in its final stages. In a few days, it will land on President Karol Nawrocki's desk, who will either fulfill the local government officials' dreams or dash them for years to come. The political initiative by KO councillors to remove Lech Kaczyński's name from the street name may bury the chance of the president's signature, and the former president's street will remain in Gdańsk anyway.”
https://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,32848498,gdy-gdansk-zabiega-o-podpis-nawrockiego-radni-ko-wracaja-do.html

-- DOUBTS ABOUT THE ELECTION DATE IN KRAKOW - DESCRIBED BY DAWID SERAFIN IN INTERIA: “Prime Minister Donald Tusk cannot announce the date of early elections until the court resolves the referendum protests, and in an optimistic scenario, this could take two months. An additional problem is the legal issue: from which point should the 90 days for holding the vote after the recall of Aleksander Miszalski be counted.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/malopolskie/news-tusk-ma-zwiazane-rece-gigantyczny-problem-z-wyborami-w-krako,nId,23494483

-- WILL GIBAŁA EVEN RUN? - DAWID SERAFIN IN INTERIA: “There are many indications that the local government official will run in the elections, although some of his entourage advise against it. - The city is heavily indebted, Civic Platform has the majority in the council, which can block the president's actions, and additionally, there will be very little time until the next local government elections. This is very risky. It might be better to wait for the next elections and then run – says one of our sources. However, these are isolated voices. - I think Łukasz won't give up the chance that fate has given him. If he runs and wins, his most important task will be to sort out the city's finances – says another of our interviewees.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-gibala-czeka-na-ruch-tuska-i-sadu-decyzja-dopiero-w-lipcu,nId,23494864

-- THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS WILL BE A BREAKTHROUGH MOMENT FOR THE RIGHT WING, AND PRESIDENT NAWROCKI WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THEM - GRZEGORZ SCHETYNA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MARTA KURZYŃSKA IN INTERIA: “It is evident that a major restructuring awaits us on the right side of the political scene. In my opinion, the upcoming elections will be a breakthrough moment, and President Nawrocki will play a key role in them. He will want to build his own base, support specific lists, and patronize new projects. We are facing a fascinating conflict between Kaczyński and Nawrocki. However, Jarosław Kaczyński will do everything to maintain 100% control over the election lists, because for him, control over the party's base, especially in opposition, is absolutely crucial.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-wazny-polityk-ko-nie-ma-zludzen-ws-dzialan-zelenskiego-skutk,nId,23494717

-- BIRTHDAYS: Grzegorz Sroczyński, Krystyna Sibińska, Witold Koziński, Marcin Makowski.
 


Łukasz Mężyk