Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Ibris for Onet: 60% Dissatisfied with Tusk, Szacki: The Center is Deserted for PiS, Zaremba: Risky, Kolanko: Will Miszalski Trigger Jagodno in Reverse?

Łukasz Mężyk

-- WE MUST JOINTLY STOP POLITICAL MADMEN - WROTE PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK ON SATURDAY: "In the war for SAFE, all masks have fallen. Today, no one can doubt that the upcoming elections will decide whether Poland remains in Europe and who wants to lead us out of it."

-- IN THE WAR FOR SAFE, ALL MASKS HAVE FALLEN. TODAY, NO ONE CAN DOUBT THAT THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS WILL DECIDE WHETHER POLAND REMAINS IN EUROPE AND WHO WANTS TO LEAD US OUT OF IT - responded presidential minister Adam Andruszkiewicz to the Prime Minister.

-- BLACK CLOUDS OVER DONALD TUSK. POLES HAVE ASSESSED HIS ACTIONS - HEADLINE ON ONET.

-- AMONG ALL SURVEYED GROUPS, ONLY 38.2% POSITIVELY ASSESS THE PRIME MINISTER'S ACTIVITIES - ONET ON THE IBRIS SURVEY: "Among all surveyed groups, only 38.2% positively assess Prime Minister Donald Tusk's activities. 12.6% of respondents chose 'definitely good,' while 25.6% rated the Prime Minister 'rather good.'"

-- 60.3% DISSATISFIED WITH PRIME MINISTER TUSK'S GOVERNMENT - ONET CONTINUES ON THE IBRIS SURVEY: "Decidedly negative responses prevail. As many as 31.1% of respondents chose 'definitely bad,' while 29.2% opted for 'rather bad.' Together, this makes 60.3% dissatisfied with Prime Minister Tusk's government. Only 1.5% of respondents were undecided."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/czarne-chmury-nad-donaldem-tuskiem-polacy-ocenili-jego-dzialania-sondaz/djrwvws,79cfc278

-- FROM OBSERVING SOCIAL TRENDS AND THE RESULTS OF THE FIRST ROUND OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, PIS HAS CONCLUDED THAT THE CENTER IS DESERTED - WOJCIECH SZACKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "From observing social trends and the results of the first round of presidential elections, PiS has concluded that the center is deserted – there is no (or almost no) moderate electorate that Kaczyński could win over in the upcoming elections. Instead, there is an expanding pool of right-wing voters. From the 2023 parliamentary campaign to the first round of the 2025 presidential elections, over 700,000 more people have voted for the right. However, the problem from PiS's perspective is that this right-wing bloc is not necessarily Kaczyński's party anymore."

-- PIS KNOWS HOW TO DO THIS, AS EVIDENCED BY THE TRANSFORMATION OF NAWROCKI, WHO WAS EXTREMELY CLUMSY AT THE START OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN - SZACKI CONTINUES: "Kaczyński has played his strongest card. Czarnek truly stirs emotions among the PiS electorate, he is not afraid of confrontation with the media, it is difficult to throw him off balance, he is an effective speaker, and he sparks interest. The title of professor (currently at KUL University) is meant to add gravitas. Now, the entire party apparatus, marketing, image, and communication experts are to work for him; PiS knows how to do this, as evidenced by the transformation of Nawrocki, who was extremely clumsy at the start of the presidential campaign."
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2335045,1,operacja-czarnek-kaczynski-ma-juz-gdzies-umiarkowanych-wyborcow-pis-nie-ma-tam-kogo-lowic.read?

-- NAWROCKI WANTS TO ACHIEVE WHAT KACZYŃSKI FAILED TO DO IN EIGHT YEARS - PERMANENTLY CHANGE THE SYSTEM WITHOUT CHANGING THE CONSTITUTION - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: "President Karol Nawrocki wants to achieve what Jarosław Kaczyński failed to do for eight years after 2015 – to permanently change the system without changing the constitution. The President wants even more power than the PiS leader desired. And he wants to seize it immediately."
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32655386,karol-nawrocki-w-niespelna-rok-zaszedl-dalej-niz-jaroslaw-kaczynski.html

-- WILL MISZALSKI IN CRACOW TRIGGER 'JAGODNO IN REVERSE'? - MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: "It seems that Krakow could become a barometer of sentiments before the parliamentary campaign. In an extreme situation for Civic Coalition, it could become 'Jagodno in reverse' (in 2023, the queues at polling stations in Wrocław's Jagodno were a symbol of mobilization against PiS). If this time, middle-class voters of various views mobilize to stand in line and recall a president from the Civic Coalition, it could be a very dangerous picture for Prime Minister Donald Tusk."
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art43954261-referendalne-emocje-w-krakowie-czy-pod-wawelem-wydarzy-sie-jagodno-na-opak

-- IN PIS, THEY FEAR THAT OVER THE NEXT YEAR AND A HALF UNTIL THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, PRZEMYSŁAW CZARNEK, WHOM HE (KACZYŃSKI) HAS ANOINTED PRIME MINISTER, WILL HAVE MANY OPPORTUNITIES NOT ONLY FOR FIGHTING BUT ALSO FOR MISTAKES - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ.

-- THE CENTER IS SUPPOSED TO NOT EXIST OR BE TOO WEAK TO BE WORTH PURSUING. THIS IS AN ASSUMPTION FRAUGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT RISK - PIOTR ZAREMBA CONTINUES: "The assumption that Czarnek, as a candidate for prime minister, is to gain support from people and circles to the right of PiS is directly stated by the formation's leading politicians. The center is supposed to not exist or be too weak to be worth pursuing. This is an assumption fraught with significant risk. Will part of PiS's moderate electorate, which supports the party for social reasons, reject Czarnek? Will he, as its face, confirm Tusk's thesis about 'three Confederations' focused on one goal: leading Poland out of the European Union? It is worth remembering that the PiS electorate is divided on Polexit roughly fifty-fifty. Does Czarnek have any prescription for this?"

-- KACZYŃSKI IS NOT PUTTING ON A MAGA HAT, BUT HE HAS DECIDED THAT THIS IS THE SPIRIT OF THE TIMES - ZAREMBA AGAIN: "Elsewhere, he is also associated with fervent Trumpism, but even that does not set him apart in the party. Only a few in this party have managed to retain a minimum of common sense on this issue – veterans like Joachim Brudziński and technocrats like Mateusz Morawiecki. But these are clearly not their times. The PiS people are different; one only needs to look at platform X to see this. Kaczyński is not putting on a MAGA hat, but he has decided that this is the spirit of the times."

-- HOWEVER, WILL THE CEASING OF FIRE FROM THE RIGHT WING OF PIS BE ENOUGH FOR MORAWIECKI TO CONSIDER HIS AMBITIONS SATISFIED? PROBABLY NOT - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: "Morawiecki has clearly held back, even hugged his former, now so exalted, minister warmly. But what was his price? Kaczyński strongly appealed not to attack the achievements of that government, and when the crowd began chanting in honor of Beata Szydło, he demanded that her successor also be honored with shouts. Czarnek himself deemed it appropriate to praise the achievements from 2018-2023. However, will the ceasing of fire from the right wing of PiS be enough for Morawiecki to consider his ambitions satisfied? Probably not."

-- CZARNEK IS, HOWEVER, A SKILLED POLITICIAN. HE WILL PROBABLY FIND A WAY TO TIE THE PARTY TO HIMSELF - STATES ZAREMBA: "Some wonder if the professor from Lublin is merely a buffer. He is supposed to boost PiS's faltering ratings and be replaced closer to the elections. But such a replacement would be detrimental to the party's popularity. It would mean admitting a mistake. And one more thing: Czarnek himself is, however, a skilled politician. He will probably find a way to tie the party to himself. Regardless of new developments, however, this does not necessarily mean its final success."
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art43953291-kto-w-pis-boi-sie-czarnka-kaczynski-daje-mu-sporo-okazji-do-palniecia-glupstw

-- 36 YEARS AGO – 1990: The Central Statistical Office announced that inflation over twelve months was 1360%.

-- FOUR YEARS AGO, MORAWIECKI, KACZYŃSKI, FIALA, AND JANSA TRAVELED BY TRAIN TO WARTIME KYIV.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Józefa Szczurek-Żelazko. SUNDAY: Katarzyna Hall, Janusz Piechociński, Joanna Tomaszewska, Aleksandra Jakubowska, Jerzy Wilk.

 


Łukasz Mężyk