-- NEW CBOS POLL. WEAK RATINGS FOR PRIME MINISTER TUSK'S GOVERNMENT - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government ratings remain unchanged – still weak. More and more Poles are negatively assessing the country's economic policy. The latest CBOS poll shows that Donald Tusk as prime minister has the support of 35% of Poles, but as many as 54% of people rate him negatively. Greater changes are visible in the assessments of economic policy. 36% of Poles rate it positively (a decrease of 3 percentage points), and negatively – 53% (an increase of 4 percentage points). One in ten citizens has no opinion on this matter”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32615216,cbos.html

-- DID MERZ SUGGEST THE WAR STARTED IN 1941 WHEN THE THIRD REICH ATTACKED THE USSR? - ONET: “A fragment of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's statement in German is circulating on X, where he allegedly stated that 'the war in Ukraine has now been going on for four years, which is longer than World War II.' Some politicians – mainly from PiS – pointed out that World War II lasted longer than four years, and the Chancellor omitted Germany's attack on Poland in September 1939, which the Soviet Army later joined. According to them, Merz suggested that the war began in 1941, when the Third Reich attacked the USSR”.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/slowa-kanclerza-niemiec-o-ii-ws-jest-reakcja-ambasady-pomylil-sie/fbj252s,79cfc278

-- A PARLIAMENTARY CLUB WITH THREE MINISTERS – REGIONAL FUNDS, CLIMATE, AND CULTURE – LOOKS STRANGE. THE PRIME MINISTER IN SUCH A SITUATION WILL BE FORCED TO RECONSTRUCT THE GOVERNMENT - ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: “In the first scenario, Polska 2050 loses another MP and becomes a parliamentary club. This will raise many questions: should a parliamentary club have a Deputy Sejm Marshal if neither the Together party nor the Confederation of the Polish Crown is guaranteed similar positions? In such a situation, Szymon Hołownia should resign from his position, and his place should be taken by a representative of Centrum. Even if Polska 2050 became part of the Polish People's Party club, the question would still be valid whether the Polish People's Party could have two Deputy Marshals. A parliamentary club with three ministers – regional funds, climate, and culture – looks strange. The Prime Minister will be forced to reconstruct the government in such a situation. This will lead to public quarrels, disputes, mutual accusations, and the October 15 Coalition will again be busy with itself”.

-- ONLY DONALD TUSK IS GAINING FROM THE POLITICAL TURMOIL TODAY, AS HIS DIRECT COMPETITION IS DISAPPEARING FROM THE POLITICAL BOARD - GRUSZCZYŃSKI FURTHER IN GW: “Only Donald Tusk is gaining from the political turmoil today, as his direct competition is disappearing from the political board. It is worth remembering that the electorate of the Civic Coalition – or rather, that part of it that used to vote for Nowoczesna, Polska 2050, or the Palikot Movement – can change their electoral preferences at any moment. The liberal voter on the democratic side has no major choice today: they can vote for Civic Coalition or stay at home”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32613711,trzy-scenariusze-po-rozpadzie-polski-2050-i-jeden-wniosek-zyskuje.html

-- PRZYDACZ ASKED ABOUT THE SAFE ACT: ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- WE ARE NOT PARTICIPATING IN SAFE NOT BECAUSE IT IS BAD, BUT BECAUSE, HAVING THE THIRD LOWEST DEBT IN THE EUROPEAN UNION, WE CAN BORROW ON THE MARKETS UNDER MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAN THE UNION ITSELF – SWEDISH MINISTER OF DEFENSE FOR RZ: “We are not participating in this program not because it is bad, but because, having the third lowest debt in the European Union, we can borrow on international markets on more favorable terms than the Union itself. But we are also borrowing for the modernization of the armed forces: €30 billion by 2035.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art43848741-minister-obrony-szwecji-dla-rzeczpospolitej-rosja-nie-wygrywa-wojny-z-ukraina

-- THE SAFE PROGRAM, UNDER THE CATCHY SLOGAN OF A CURRENT RESPONSE TO THE DEFENSE NEGLIGENCE OF EU COUNTRIES, IS FILLING A GAP IN THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S CONTROL OVER MEMBER STATES - PIOTR SEMKA IN DO RZECZY: “The SAFE program, under the catchy slogan of a current response to the defense negligence of EU countries, is filling a gap in the European Commission's control over member states. The EU has so far only dealt with economic issues, and as it later turned out, also institutional ones, but not defense matters. PiS effectively used this gap during its rule to initiate actions towards military rapprochement with the USA. Now Brussels, wanting to eliminate this sovereign precedent as well, wants to control absolutely all aspects of Poland's functioning.”

-- THE ACTUAL REMOVAL FROM WARSAW OF THE SOVEREIGN DECISION ABOUT WHAT ARMAMENTS, FOR WHAT MONEY, AND WHEN THEY ARE TO BE DELIVERED TO POLAND - SEMKA FURTHER IN DO RZECZY: “The actual removal from Warsaw of the sovereign decision about what armaments, for what money, and when they are to be delivered to Poland means that we will be at Russia's mercy. And Russia can exploit the time, a minimum of 10 years, during which the ineffective EU administration will be implementing arms projects, and attack us before the weapons from German and French factories and their subsidiaries reach the Polish Army. And Poland must hurry with rearmament. The government of Mateusz Morawiecki ordered Korean tanks and transporters precisely for this reason, because no one in Europe could deliver them within such a short timeframe.”

-- THIS MEANS PUSHING POLAND INTO A BUREAUCRATIC MODEL, ARTIFICIALLY LIMITING THE SCOPE FOR DECISION-MAKING BEST FOR POLAND, NOT FOR THE INDUSTRIAL-ARMAMENTS LOBBY IN BRUSSELS - SEMKA AGAIN: “This means pushing Poland into a bureaucratic model, artificially limiting the scope for decision-making best for Poland, not for the industrial-armaments lobby in Brussels. The most important problem, however, is the removal of another area of sovereignty from us. Moreover, this matter must cause tensions in our relations with the USA. And our army will be equipped with weapons whose standards will not match the standards of US Army equipment, which is the only real factor in considering our defense against a conflict with Russia.”

-- THE SAFE PROGRAM IS A BRUTAL CLOSURE OF A PROGRAM THAT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY FOR YEARS, WHERE THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION IS TAKING AWAY THE MOST IMPORTANT COMPETENCIES FROM THE POLISH STATE - SEMKA'S CONCLUSION: “I usually do not overuse strong terms, but this time it is fully justified. The SAFE program is a brutal closure of a years-long program of the European Commission taking away the most important competencies from the Polish state. The loss of influence over shaping our own security is a grim conclusion to this process.”
https://dorzeczy.pl/opinie/848990/semka-dlaczego-safe-jest-tak-grozny.html

-- DIFFICULT AND BY NO MEANS OBVIOUS CHOICES, WHICH POLAND WOULD HAVE TO MAKE SOONER OR LATER ANYWAY - JAN ROKITA IN TYGODNIK SIECI: “Quite unexpectedly, a large European credit for financing the Polish army has sparked a sharp dispute over the very core of our security policy. In this dispute, one aspect is the astounding rhetoric used by both sides, and another is the difficult and by no means obvious choices that Poland would have to make sooner or later anyway.”

-- THE MOST SERIOUS RISK ASSOCIATED WITH ADOPTING SAFE STEMS FROM THE DANGER OF SUDDEN MONEY BLOCKADE BY BRUSSELS, AND THIS IN THE MIDST OF THE PROGRAM'S DURATION, WHEN PAYMENTS FOR PURCHASES WILL NEED TO BE MADE - JAN ROKITA FURTHER IN SIECI: “The most serious risk associated with adopting SAFE stems from the danger of a sudden money blockade by Brussels, and this in the middle of the program's duration, when payments for purchases will need to be made. This could mean a serious crisis for Polish finances. Unfortunately, the government's plenipotentiary Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka is incorrect in suggesting that concerns in this matter stem from 'disinformation.' The facts say something completely different. Just recently, the European Commission blocked €16 billion that was previously meant to be Hungary's share in SAFE, under the infamous 'rule of law' pretext. But it was enough to listen to the debate in the European Parliament on January 20 or read the well-informed newspaper 'Politico' to find out that Budapest is being deprived of access to SAFE because Brussels dislikes its policy. It doesn't matter why it dislikes it – for us, it's only important that such 'disliking' can become a reason for blocking payments to Poland at any moment if the right wing regains power here in 2027.”

-- IN BRUSSELS WE HAVE A PARTNER WHO – UNFORTUNATELY – IS WILLING TO GAMBLE ON DEFENSE AND SECURITY AS WELL, IF THEY DECIDE TO BRING DOWN A RIGHT-WING GOVERNMENT IN ONE OF THE MEMBER STATES - JAN ROKITA AGAIN: “In Brussels, we have a partner who – unfortunately – is also willing to gamble on defense and security if they decide to bring down a right-wing government in one of the member states. If Nawrocki signs the loan act, he must be prepared for the fact that in two years, if Brussels provokes an artificial crisis in Poland around payments from SAFE, he will be asked: 'Why did you sign it? Didn't we tell you?'”

-- THE ONLY THING IS THAT THE RISK OF NOT SIGNING THE LOAN ACT SEEMS MORE SERIOUS. FIRSTLY, BECAUSE THERE IS NO CHANCE THAT POLAND WILL EMIT AND SELL ITS OWN DEFENSE BONDS AT DECENT YIELDS IN A SHORT TIME - JAN ROKITA'S CONCLUSION: “The only thing is that the risk of not signing the loan act seems more serious. Firstly, because there is no chance that Poland will issue and sell its own defense bonds at decent yields in comparable amounts in a short time. This means that without this loan, Polish rearmament will absolutely certainly go slower and less effectively, and investments in the Polish defense industry (which have been talked about for years without effect, even regarding ammunition production) will be significantly smaller than they could be. Therefore, in this case too, Nawrocki will eventually be asked: 'For what reason did you make life difficult for the Polish defense industry?'”
https://wpolityce.pl/tygodniksieci/753642-ryzyko-prezydenta-safe-blokada-pieniedzy-ze-strony-brukseli

-- BIRTHDAYS: Paweł Graś (62), Anna Bogucka-Skowrońska (turns 84), Radosław Sikorski (63).