state of play: 08/30/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Nawrocki Charges Ahead, Government Reacts Clumsily; Kaczyński Pleased, Morawiecki Proves His Worth

Łukasz Mężyk

— KAROL NAWROCKI HAS STORMED INTO POLISH POLITICS. CAN DONALD TUSK WITHSTAND IT – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “If anyone harbored hopes for some strange ‘alliance shift,’ no trace of it remains. Because today, Nawrocki is Tusk’s real antagonist, not a powerless opposition. He has the tools to thwart Tusk’s plans. No prime minister would tolerate this, and this one is a battered, troubled, and therefore exceptionally toxic premier.”

— FACED WITH A FLOOD OF PRESIDENTIAL VETOES AND INITIATIVES, THE RULING COALITION POLITICIANS REACT CLUMSILY – ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZ: “Faced with a flood of presidential vetoes and initiatives, the ruling coalition politicians react clumsily. They claim Nawrocki is still campaigning, or that he's serving PiS. They said the same about Andrzej Duda at various points. The constitutional argument has also emerged: the president wants to rule, but that's not our system. Power lies with the parliamentary cabinet, they repeat on camera. Tomasz Trela, a Member of Parliament from New Left, one of the most brutish coalition mouthpieces, has already called Nawrocki a 'tsar.'”

— IF I WERE IN THE SHOES OF PSL PRESIDENT WŁADYSŁAW KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ, I WOULDN'T REACT SO CRITICALLY TO THIS VETO, BECAUSE HIS SHRINKING ELECTORATE MIGHT NOT UNDERSTAND – ZAREMBA STILL IN RZ: “The most enthusiastic welcome for the veto came from Konfederacja, but PiS politicians and voters are also in agreement, and perhaps through skillfully sown fears, they might even attract some supporters of the current ruling coalition. If I were in the shoes of PSL President Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, I wouldn't react so critically to this veto, because his shrinking electorate might not understand it.”

— THE PRESIDENTIAL CHANCERY WILL SCRUTINIZE EVERY LAW. DONALD TUSK MAY HAVE TROUBLE – CLAIMS ZAREMBA IN RZ: “The remaining two vetoes, concerning deregulation laws, are more technical in nature, but they can begin to accustom Tusk’s government to the fact that the Presidential Chancery will meticulously scrutinize every law. And for example, as in this case, it will question the reduction of penalties for fiscal crimes, which looks bad when the new government is facing a growing problem with revenue generation. If this vigilance from Nawrocki’s team is maintained, the president’s participation in the legislative process will mean an obstacle course for the government.”

— I PERCEIVE THE BALANCE OF THESE FIRST FEW WEEKS AS A MIXTURE OF JUSTIFIED, DOUBTFUL, AND NEUTRAL MOVES FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, BUT EFFECTIVE IN TERMS OF IMAGE – ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “All these projects will not be adopted anyway – by a parliament that has such significant problems with its budget deficit. With their symbolic, PR character, both PiS and Konfederacja can support them. As can be seen, I perceive the balance of these first few weeks as a mixture of justified, doubtful, and neutral moves from my perspective, but effective in terms of image. Without a doubt, Karol Nawrocki’s career is an example of the fastest and perhaps most effective advancement in Polish politics after 1989.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art42920131-karol-nawrocki-idzie-jak-burza-czy-donald-tusk-to-wytrzyma

— THE FREE FLIGHT OF A RUSSIAN DRONE DEEP INTO POLISH TERRITORY SHOWED HOW FRAGILE OUR DEFENSE IS. AND HOW MUCH DEPENDS ON UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE – MIROSŁAW CZECH IN GW: “The free flight of a Russian drone deep into Polish territory showed how fragile our defense is. And how much depends on Ukrainian resistance, which the longer it lasts, the safer Poland and all of Europe become. Inciting anti-Ukrainian phobias not only targets refugees and other Ukrainian citizens living, working, and paying taxes in our country. First and foremost, it weakens Poland to a degree that an enemy would find difficult to achieve from the outside, waging a hybrid war, including cognitive warfare on social media.
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32205014,najwazniejszy-czlowiek-trumpa-wyslal-jasny-sygnal-kto-jest.html
— PIS WANTS TO TAKE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE RIGHT-WING ELECTORATE AND MARGINALIZE THE THIRD FORCE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE – PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “Words like these, combined with President Nawrocki’s vetoes – serving the Konfederacja agenda, which is anti-Ukrainian, anti-wind power, and anti-European – show that PiS wants to capture the majority of the right-wing electorate and marginalize the third force as much as possible.”

— THE NEXT GOVERNMENT – EVEN WITHOUT PIS PARTICIPATION – WILL HAVE TO ‘REALIZE’ DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLICY IN A RIGHT-WING SPIRIT – SZUBARTOWICZ AGAIN: “If Poland is indeed turning right, and the current government is unable to continue governing, the choice will narrow. Either an autocratic state with a xenophobic, anti-Ukrainian, and anti-EU inclination will emerge, or the constitutional order will not be overturned. However, in that case, the next government – without PiS participation – will have to ‘realize’ domestic and international policy in a right-wing spirit. There might be no third way. And even the most beautiful ideals will not help.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-czy-kaczynski-zadusi-konfederacje,nId,22179225

— THE PRESIDENT WAS DELIGHTED. MORAWIECKI SHOWED HE IS STILL WORTH BETTING ON. AND HE EXPOSED MENTZEN – A POLITICIAN CLOSE TO NOWOGRODZKA CITED IN MICHAŁ WRÓBLEWSKI'S ARTICLE IN WP: “Jarosław Kaczyński sent a clear signal to PiS politicians: stop talking about a coalition with Konfederacja. – The President sees no possibility of governing with Mentzen – a regular at the headquarters on Nowogrodzka tells us. The ‘clash’ between Mentzen and Mateusz Morawiecki is also widely discussed in PiS. – The President was delighted by the reports from that meeting – says his collaborator. A politician close to Nowogrodzka: – The President was delighted. Morawiecki showed that he is still worth betting on. And he exposed Mentzen.”

— A PIECEMAN TELLS WRÓBLEWSKI HE HASN'T HEARD SUCH NONSENSE AS 'TALKING ABOUT HOW INVESTING IN NEW TECHNOLOGIES IS POINTLESS' FOR A LONG TIME – CONTINUES IN WP: “Slawek, please forgive me, he behaved like an idiot – says one of the more experienced PiS politicians frankly. He claims that he hasn't heard such nonsense, like 'talking about how investing in new technologies is pointless,' for a long time. – And this is being said by a guy who wants to present himself as a modern young politician. This is, f***ing, absurd – believes our interlocutor.”

— IN PIS, THEY SAY MENTZEN IS OVERHYPED – STILL WITH WRÓBLEWSKI IN WP: “A young PiS MP: – Mentzen is overhyped; when he runs out of water in the pool, it turns out he’s wearing shorts. He’s not fit to govern.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/jaroslaw-dal-sygnal-koniec-mowienia-o-koalicji-kaczynski-z-morawieckim-uderzaja-w-lidera-konfederacji-7194530124499904a

— THIS YEAR SAW 40 PERCENT FEWER TOURISTS THAN LAST SUMMER – ESTIMATE BY ENTREPRENEURS IN ŁEBA – MACIEJ PIETRZAK IN GW: “Empty beaches, promotional accommodation prices, seniors instead of families with children. Łeba at the end of the holidays looks as if the season ended long ago. – This year, there were 40 percent fewer tourists than last summer, estimate local entrepreneurs. The opinion circulating on the Baltic coast is that 'this is the worst summer in years.' Even in mid-holiday, I heard by the Kashubian lakes that this season is exceptionally unsuccessful.”

— THIS YEAR IT WAS CLEAR THAT TOURISTS WERE TIGHTENING THEIR BELTS – CONTINUES IN PIETRZAK'S REPORT IN GW: “ – This year, it was clear that tourists were tightening their belts. Families are more often cooking for themselves at their lodgings, shopping at Biedronka or Lidl beforehand, rather than eating out – comments Ola, a waitress in one of the local eateries.”
https://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,32206005,pojechalem-do-leby-na-koniec-wakacji-po-fatalnym-sezonie-nastala.html

— WHERE HAS THAT IRON-WILLED NOWACKA GONE? SCHOOL WAS SUPPOSED TO LOOK DIFFERENT IN SEPTEMBER – KAROLINA SŁOWIK IN GW: “But where does this cautiousness come from regarding changes that are actually important to schools and that schools wholeheartedly support? Where is that former steadfastness? Perhaps it's still shock after the government reconstruction. Or perhaps readings, intercultural assistants, health education are things that Nowacka doesn't feel as strongly about as the separation of church and state? But assuming she stayed in the Ministry of Education to complete the reform, it would be beneficial if she maintained her guard and implemented it with the same courage as the changes concerning religion.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32181514,gdzie-sie-podziala-ta-zelazna-nowacka-szkola-we-wrzesniu-miala.html

— IN THE NASK TENDER FOR LAPTOPS FOR SCHOOLS, PRODUCTS FROM APPLE AND SAMSUNG WERE EXCLUDED, AMONG OTHERS – BUSINESS INSIDER: “NASK has announced another tender for the purchase of laptops with the requirement of TCO and EPEAT certifications, which limits the choice of manufacturers. In April, a tender for equipment worth PLN 1.7 billion included the simultaneous possession of certifications that only five companies met. Products from Apple and Samsung were excluded, among others. An expert points out that the conditions for recognizing equivalent certificates are unclear, which limits competition. The Ministry considered the certificates a guarantee of the quality of equipment for schools, which met with objections from Polish companies. The condition will increase the price of tablets by at least PLN 20 million. A seemingly minor change, but it changes a lot. The stringent condition left products from only five companies in the running for the contract: Dell, HP, Lenovo, Asus, and Acer. Even Apple and Samsung did not meet the stringent requirements.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/biznes/nowy-mega-przetarg-na-laptopy-stare-grzechy-tempo-realizacji-kpo-wszystko-zmienia/18egyh1

— 45TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE AUGUST AGREEMENTS (on Sunday).

— BIRTHDAYS: Liliana Sonik, Jacek Brzezinka. SUNDAY: Stefan Frankiewicz, Henryk Woźniakowski.


Łukasz Mężyk