state of play: 08/25/2025

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Government Source Cited by Żółciak: Concerns About a Greek Scenario Aren't Senseless, RZ: Taxes Patching the Budget

Łukasz Mężyk

— BIELAN: PREPARATIONS FOR THE NAWROCKI-TRUMP MEETING ARE UNDERWAY. I'M FLYING TO WASHINGTON IN A FEW HOURS, PRZYDACZ: I RECEIVED A CALL FROM THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS ON SUNDAY AROUND 8 PM, WHEN ALL LEADERS WERE ALREADY ON A FLIGHT TO WASHINGTON – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/08/25/

— THE CIVIC PLATFORM'S POWER IN SILESIA AND NATIONWIDE IS ERODING – ONE OF THE ZABRZE ACTIVISTS, WACŁAW JAN KROCZEK: “Kamil Żbikowski is winning by a whisker against Ewa Weber! Citizens have regained their city through a referendum and subsequent snap elections. The Civic Platform's power in Silesia and nationwide is eroding. People are winning, activists are winning. Poland is winning!”
https://x.com/WaclawJan/status/1959721881407254605

— A GLITCH IN THE SYSTEM – PRZEMYSŁAW JEDLECKI IN GW: “After recounting ballots from 89 polling stations, Kamil Żbikowski was leading the election by 142 votes. As we unofficially learned from the National Electoral Office in Katowice, all protocols from the polling stations have been verified. – There was some error in the system – we hear from one of the commission members.”
https://gliwice.wyborcza.pl/gliwice/7,95519,32198613,wybory-prezydenckie-w-zabrzu-ewa-weber-i-kamil-zbikowski-ida.html

— THIS IS A RETURN TO A VERY UGLY GAME THAT ENDED TRAGICALLY FOR POLAND: POLITICIANS CANNOT FLY IN OPERATIONAL AIRCRAFT BECAUSE THEY ARE EXPENSIVE, THEY CANNOT DRIVE SAFE CARS BECAUSE THEY ARE EXPENSIVE, ETC. – PATRYK SŁOWIK: “Putting aside the fact that, for me, the president and prime minister could even drive tanks if they wanted to – how can anyone even conceive of such an idea of stupefying people and convincing them that a new car model was delivered to the president, who has been in office for two weeks, at his special request? When neither the presidential chancellery ordered the car nor owns it, and the protection is handled by the Government Protection Service, which is subordinate to the government, not the presidential chancellery. This is a return to a very ugly game that ended tragically for Poland: politicians cannot fly in operational aircraft because they are expensive, they cannot drive safe cars because they are expensive, etc.”
https://x.com/PatrykSlowik/status/1959559586035179591

— MY GOVERNMENT ALSO STRUGGLED WITH HUGE BUDGETARY PROBLEMS. HOWEVER, THE WAY TO IMPROVE THE SITUATION WAS NOT TAX INCREASES, BUT THEIR REDUCTIONS. I WILL REMIND YOU OF THE REDUCTION OF THE CORPORATE TAX RATE FROM 27 TO 19 PERCENT OR THE REDUCTION OF EXCISE DUTY ON ALCOHOL – LESZEK MILLER: “Contrary to fears, budget revenues did not fall, but increased – by PLN 800 million compared to the previous year. Smuggling and illegal production and sale of alcohol clearly decreased because the 'grey economy' lost its profitability. Alcohol consumption increased – from 7.2 liters to 8 liters per person – but at the same time, the number of poisonings from moonshine and alcohol of unknown origin decreased.”
https://x.com/LeszekMiller/status/1959534481460559989

— TAXES ARE PATCHING THE BUDGET – headline on the front page of RZ.

— THE RULING PARTY IS INTENSIVELY WORKING TO INCREASE REVENUES, SO THEY ARE REACHING INTO THE TAXPAYER'S POCKET – PAWEŁ ROCHOWICZ IN RZ: “The state treasury's deficit is growing, and at the same time, the army needs to be re-armed and healthcare needs to be saved. The government is working intensively to increase revenues, so it is reaching into the taxpayer's pocket.”
https://www.rp.pl/podatki/art42898791-podwyzka-podatkow-zalata-budzet-sa-watpliwosci-co-zrobi-prezydent

— THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE IS PREPARING TAX INCREASES – PIOTR SKWIROWSKI IN RZ: “Banks are expected to pay more. Excise duty on alcohol and the sugar tax are to increase. – The game is about ensuring that the deficit in 2026 does not increase significantly and is similar to this year's – economists comment.”
https://www.rp.pl/budzet-i-podatki/art42898051-wielkie-poszukiwania-pieniedzy-do-zasypania-wielkiej-dziury-w-budzecie

— THE GOVERNMENT IS PREPARING A WAVE OF TAX INCREASES. CHECK WHICH ONES WILL AFFECT YOU THE MOST – HEADLINE IN BUSINESS INSIDER.
https://businessinsider.com.pl/prawo/podatki/rzad-szykuje-fale-podwyzek-podatkow-sprawdz-ktore-dotkna-cie-najbardziej

— IN GOVERNMENT CIRCLES, IT IS HEARD THAT ACHIEVING THE PLAN WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT, SOME ARE EVEN TALKING ABOUT A "GREEK SCENARIO" – TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN MONEY.PL: “Practically all our government interlocutors, when asked about the process of preparing next year's budget, do not show optimism. – Opinions about the looming Greek scenario are not without basis – believes one of the individuals from government circles we asked.”

— BANKRUPTCY OF THE NATIONAL HEALTH FUND IS BEING DISCUSSED – FURTHER IN ŻÓŁCIAK'S ARTICLE IN MONEY.PL: “- There are opinions that the situation in the National Health Fund is dire, even mentions of a 'bankruptcy' – adds an interlocutor close to the government but well-informed about the state's financial plan. Another interlocutor points out that next year's proposed budget subsidy for the NFZ is around PLN 26 billion, while the Fund's real needs are about PLN 50 billion.”

— BUDGET WORK IS BEING CONDUCTED IN STRICT SECRECY – FURTHER IN ŻÓŁCIAK'S ARTICLE: “Work is being carried out by Domański's ministry in strict secrecy, hence the most important parameters such as deficit, debt, or the scale of defense spending are not yet widely known 'for sure.' – Discussions are still ongoing in the government, primarily with ministries, so until all this is put together, nothing binding can be said in this regard – cuts off an interlocutor from the Ministry of Finance.”

— THE ANNOUNCED TAX INCREASES ARE A DROP IN THE OCEAN OF NEEDS – AN ANONYMOUS CIVIC PLATFORM MP CITED BY ŻÓŁCIAK IN MONEY: “It is not surprising that in this situation, the Minister of Finance is actively seeking additional funds for the budget. The list of changes announced in recent days by Domański is long. These include an increase in excise duty on alcohol, an increase in the sugar tax, an increase in the corporate tax rate for banks, and tightening measures in IP Box, Estonian CIT, and family foundations. – We still need to find money. Economic growth alone is not enough – admits a Civic Platform MP. However, all these changes will generate additional budget revenue of PLN 10-11 billion, and this is just a drop in the ocean of needs – it's merely 3-4 percent of the deficit planned for this year.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/budzetowa-chwila-prawdy-domanski-wyklada-karty-na-stol-7192024471280384a.html

— 300POLITYKA WROTE ABOUT THE BUDGET PROBLEMS ON JULY 29:**

— ACCORDING TO OUR INTERLOCUTORS, A 20% SAVINGS OPTION AT THE MINISTRY LEVEL IS BEING CONSIDERED.

— THE PRIME MINISTER IS AFRAID THAT THE NEW PRESIDENT WILL REFER THE BUDGET TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL (Art. Art. 224, para. 2 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland), and the Tribunal will deem the budget unconstitutional by exceeding the constitutional limit of public debt to GDP – 300POLITYKA hears.

https://300polityka.pl/stan-gry/2025/07/29/stan-gry-na-horyzoncie-najwiekszy-kryzys-rzadu-tuska-czy-prezydent-nawrocki-skieruje-budzet-do-tk-ale-czy-sejm-go-w-ogole-uchwali/

— BREWERS WARN THAT BEER FROM GERMANY WILL BECOME CHEAPER FOR CONSUMERS – BUSINESS INSIDER: “It points out that from next year, beer will become so expensive that many Poles simply won't be able to afford it, and we will import more of it, for example, from Germany, where excise duty is three times lower.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/biznes/wyzsza-akcyza-na-alkohol-co-z-cenami-piwa-branza-ostrzega/v0w0qd3

— THE PRICE OF DUŻY LOTEK IS SHARPLY INCREASING. A LOTTO SALES POINT EMPLOYEE: I'M STARTING TO LOOK FOR A THERAPIST – RAFAŁ GÓRSKI IN GW: “This is the first change in the price of Duży Lote k in 16 years. The last one took place on October 9, 2009: from PLN 2 to PLN 3 per ticket. – For us, there's less and less money, but more and more duties. And from October, we will have to deal with angry customers because they will vent their frustration about higher prices on us. The big shots are living in luxury, and we are like cannon fodder on the front line. I'm starting to look for a therapist, although I can't afford it anyway – I hear from a lottery sales point employee.”
https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,32197639,cena-duzego-lotka-w-gore-prawie-dwa-razy-zaczynam-szukac-terapeuty.html

— IF THE VISTULA LINE – AS A SYMBOL OF ACTING AGAINST POLAND'S INTERESTS – IS TO PERMANENTLY DISAPPEAR, THEN THE PEOPLE CREATING IT MUST LEAVE OUR SECURITY SPHERE – KATARZYNA GÓJSKA IN NIEZALEŻNA: “Therefore, if the Vistula line – as a symbol of acting against Poland's interests – is to permanently disappear, then the people creating it, including those compromised by conspiring with Putin's cronies, must leave our security sphere. Meanwhile, they are doing very well today. Just like before, during parties in Kadyny, they control the special services, try to dictate terms to the head of state, organizing an illegal operation to eliminate the newly appointed head of the National Security Bureau, who is crucial for security knowledge.”

— GÓJSKA ON THE TEST FOR PRESIDENT NAWROCKI'S TEAM: “And this is probably the first serious test to which the president and his chancellery are subjected. Will they succumb to the illegal violence of the 'reseciarze' (a derogatory term for Russian intelligence agents), or will they have the courage to oppose it? Will they accept the dictate of a participant in secret and anti-Polish gatherings with Russians – Dusza – or will they stand guard over the law and national interest? Strong words must be followed by decisive actions, because we have had more than enough critical words against Tusk's fighting democracy.”
https://niezalezna.pl/polityka/pierwszy-test-katarzyna-gojska-jednosc-ze-zdrajcami-to-zbrodnia/550438

— Andrzej Potocki, who passed away in February this year, would have celebrated his 61st birthday today.

— BIRTHDAYS: Cezary Tomczyk, Krzysztof Śmiszek, Zdobysław Milewski, Marcin Gugulski, Piotr Kotomski.


Łukasz Mężyk