state of play: 08/21/2025

Miączyński (GW) Warns of Budget Turmoil, Konkret24 Debunks Government's 100 Pledges Claim

Łukasz Mężyk

— MANY INDICATORS SUGGEST THIS YEAR'S BUDGET IS STARTING TO UNRAVEL – PIOTR MIĄCZYŃSKI IN GW: “This year's budget has a gargantuan deficit, at PLN 289 billion. Revenues: PLN 632.6 billion, with expenditures exceeding PLN 921.6 billion. State treasury debt servicing costs (i.e., interest) are rising. According to the government, it will be PLN 75.5 billion this year, PLN 90.6-91.8 billion next year, and well over PLN 100 billion in 2027. Meanwhile, many indicators suggest this year's budget is starting to unravel. Economists at Pekao bank add that in July, the state budget deficit jumped by PLN 37 billion, thereby exhausting the Ministry of Finance's room for increasing the deficit this year.”

— DOMAŃSKI IS STARTING TO JUGGLE HOT POTATOES. THIS MOMENT HAD TO ARRIVE, BUT POLITICIANS HAD ONLY BEEN DENYING IT THUS FAR – MIĄCZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “The debt-to-GDP ratio may exceed 60 percent of GDP already this year, and this ‘feat’ will certainly materialize in 2026, as the Ministry of Finance is already openly stating. Thus, next year at the latest will be the moment when Poland breaks both of the EU's fiscal limits – on deficit and debt. Domański is therefore starting to juggle hot potatoes. This moment had to arrive, but politicians had only been denying it thus far.”

— GAWKOWSKI TALKS A LOT ABOUT THE DIGITAL TAX, BUT THIS IDEA IS VIRTUALLY HOPELESS – SAYS PIOTR MIĄCZYŃSKI IN GW: “Gawkowski talks a lot about the digital tax, but this idea is virtually hopeless. Within the coalition itself, it's hard to get approval here (Tusk and Domański believe it's better to negotiate investments in Poland from big tech companies). Besides, a sharp objection from Donald Trump is enough to scrap this idea, and even if it doesn't sway Donald Tusk and Andrzej Domański, it will certainly charm Karol Nawrocki.”
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177151,32187707,domanski-chce-wycisnac-e-sklepy-i-banki-gawkowski-big-techy.html

— PEKAO ANALYSTS WRITE ABOUT STAGNATION IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: “Acceleration compared to June mainly due to a low base from the previous year; production levels still below the highs of late 2021 and early 2022. Stagnation.”
https://x.com/Pekao_Analizy/status/1958441386321101267

— THE GOVERNMENT IS QUIETLY BACKING OUT OF TUSK'S “PLEDGE”. REASON? FEARS OF COSTS AND ABUSE – TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK AND GRZEGORZ OSIECKI IN MONEY.PL: “The change promised by Donald Tusk during the 2023 election campaign, namely ZUS (Social Insurance Institution) paying sick leave benefits from the very first day of an employee's absence, will not happen. The ruling party concluded that implementing this idea would not only be costly but also provide wide scope for abuse – money.pl has learned.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/rzad-po-cichu-wycofuje-sie-z-konkretu-tuska-powod-obawy-o-koszty-i-naduzycia-7191332159109888a.html

— DOMAŃSKI BELIEVES THE GOVERNMENT IS FULFILLING ITS PROMISES. FACTS CONTRADICT THIS – GABRIELA SIECZKOWSKA IN TVN24 KONKRET24: “Finance and Economy Minister Andrzej Domański believes the government is fulfilling its promises. According to him, ‘a great, great many pledges have been delivered’ and many of them were already realized within the first hundred days of governance. The facts contradict this. (…) Minister Domański is wrong. Many key and expected pledges have not been fulfilled, not only within the first hundred days of the government but even to this day.”
https://konkret24.tvn24.pl/polityka/andrzej-domanski-wiele-ze-100-konkretow-zostalo-zrealizowane-no-nie-st8599930

— POLAND DEFENSELESS AGAINST DRONES. THIS IS ANOTHER WARNING – MACIEJ MIŁOSZ IN RZ: “The fact that a Russian drone can fly into Poland and remain undetected for a hundred kilometers cannot, however, fill us with optimism. Although it can be argued that it is a very small object and difficult to detect, we currently lack the capability to deal with such a threat.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art42882801-maciej-milosz-polska-bezbronna-przed-dronami-to-kolejne-ostrzezenie

— SZŁAPKA: EVEN WITH VERY EXTENSIVE SYSTEMS, THERE ARE INSTANCES OF DRONES FLYING IN. THERE ARE ALWAYS SOME GAPS – 300LIVE:
https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/08/21/

— THE STRATEGY OF YIELDING TO RIGHT-WING PRESSURE IS FRUITLESS. WORSE! IT ENCOURAGES THEM TO ESCALATE FURTHER PRESSURE – JAROSŁAW KURSKI IN GW: “Beating the patriotic drum for the right-wing is ultimately a catastrophic practice, for it makes us, democrats, co-responsible for the march of fascism. Only their national-Catholic patriotism and their nationalistic-xenophobic-megalomaniac narrative about Poland will remain. Because they have a baseball bat and brass knuckles for us, while we, democrats, have our scruples and illusions that we must talk, because of difficult childhoods, exclusion, social inclusivity, one common home, and similar tales of idealists. However, it takes two to tango.”

— THE AESTHETICS OF THE PHALANGE AND A MEGALOMANIACALLY INFLATED BELIEF IN OUR SPOTLESS NATIONAL CONCEPTION, OUR HOMEGROWN FASCISM HAS GAINED A SIGNIFICANT PROMOTER, PAID FOR BY OUR TAXES – JAROSŁAW KURSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “The moment Karol Nawrocki moved into the Presidential Palace, and with him the cult of force, the ethics of street brawling, the aesthetics of the Phalange, and a megalomaniacally inflated belief in our spotless national conception, our homegrown fascism gained a significant promoter, paid for by our taxes. Hooligan excesses previously known from stadiums, from churches ‘defended against leftist elements,’ and from Nazi marches have gained official legitimacy.”

— THE UNSTOPPABLE BROWN WAVE IS TURNING INTO A TSUNAMI AND WILL SOON TAKE US WITH IT – KURSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “There's no surprise, dear democrats, the unstoppable brown wave is turning into a tsunami and will soon take us with it, as well as everything in its path.”

— ONLY KOSINIAK REMAINED FROM THE ANNOUNCED LINE-UP OF “BEER WITH MENTZEN” INTERLOCUTORS – GW: “The most important among them is Deputy Prime Minister and PSL leader Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, who – unlike his coalition partners from KO – did not withdraw from ‘Beer with Mentzen.’ The meeting with him will be the first on the tour, scheduled for Thursday, August 21st, at the Stara Zajezdnia restaurant in Krakow. ‘I hope for a truly interesting conversation,’ invites Mentzen.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32190072,wraca-piwo-z-mentzenem-ale-lista-gosci-mocno-sie-zmienila.html

— MARIA KACZYŃSKA WOULD HAVE TURNED 83 TODAY.

— A REMEMBRANCE OF MARIA KACZYŃSKA: https://www.prezydent.pl/aktualnosci/wydarzenia/wspomnienie-sp-pierwszej-damy-marii-kaczynskiej,1699


Łukasz Mężyk