state of play: 08/18/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Wojczal on US-Russia Trade Worth $3.5 Billion vs. EU-Russia Trade of €67.5 Billion; Dworczyk: Poland Less Prepared for War Than Years Ago

Łukasz Mężyk

— LEŚKIEWICZ: PRESIDENT NAWROCKI EMPHASIZED NOT TO TRUST PUTIN'S ASSURANCES AND THAT NOTHING ABOUT UKRAINE WITHOUT UKRAINIANS – 300LIVE
https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/08/18/

— SZEFERNAKER TO ARŁUKOWICZ ON POLSAT NEWS: “Inside your leaflet is Stanisław Gawłowski, whom you supported for the Senate. You are the last person who can speak of credibility.”
https://x.com/SliwkaAndrzej/status/1957033436465484055

— “I WOULD ASK THAT WE DO NOT OFFEND OUR PARTNERS BY SAYING SOMEONE WAS HOODWINKED” – SAYS HEAD OF PRESIDENTIAL CABINET PAWEŁ SZEFERNAKER ON „RYMANOWSKI’S BREAKFAST”, reacting to a comment about Donald Trump's stance towards Russia. – Had Nawrocki not won the election, Poland's relations with the USA would be in a bad state – he added.
https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2025-08-17/prosze-nie-obrazac-naszych-partnerow-spiecie-o-zachowanie-donalda-trumpa/

— WHO WILL APOLOGIZE TO RUCHNIEWICZ AND THE GERMANS FOR THE BLOW TO GERMAN-POLISH FRIENDSHIP? – ASKS „TAGESZEITUNG” JOURNALIST – PATRYK SŁOWIK
https://x.com/PatrykSlowik/status/1957087692857938395

— THE SAME QUOTE FROM PROF. ŻERKO: “Ruchniewicz was supposed to depoliticize the Institute, whose profile was largely determined by the 'national-populist ideology' of PiS.
‘Who will apologize to Ruchniewicz and the Germans for the blow to German-Polish friendship?’ – asks the ‘Tageszeitung’ journalist in conclusion.
https://x.com/StZerko/status/1957177498627867036

— POLAND, THE HOMELAND OF THE GERMANS. WE OWE NO ONE AS MUCH AS WE OWE THEM – ANDRZEJ ROMANOWSKI IN ALE HISTORIA GAZETY WYBORCZEJ: “Thanks to them, we entered Europe, and at least twice: over a thousand years ago and quite recently. Polish history must be placed within a German – and European – framework. (…) By expelling Germans from Poland, we also expelled ourselves from it. And by erasing former German traces, trying to make Wit Stwosz Polish, and declaiming about Copernicus that ‘his tribe begot him Polish,’ we were in fact carrying out an uprooting from our own tradition”.
https://wyborcza.pl/alehistoria/7,121681,27178163,polska-ojczyzna-niemcow-nikomu-nie-zawdzieczamy-tyle-co-im.html

— TRADE BETWEEN THE USA AND RUSSIA WAS WORTH APPROX. $3.5 BILLION. MEANWHILE, THE VALUE OF EU TRADE WITH RUSSIA = €67.5 BILLION, OR 2000% MORE – KRZYSZTOF WOJCZAL, geopolitical analyst: “In 2024, trade between the USA and Russia was worth approx. $3.5 billion. In the same period, the value of EU trade with Russia = €67.5 billion (approx. 2000% more). This is almost as much as the trade exchange between India and Russia. The fourth year of the war is underway. The EU is still Russia's third-largest trading partner (the Dutch and Germans excel)”.

— THE UNION COULD PUNISH RUSSIA FINANCIALLY ABOUT 30X STRONGER THAN THE USA – WOJCZAL CONTINUES: “The West still holds a hostage in the form of about half of Russian reserves. Americans froze approx. $6 billion, while the European Union froze €210 billion. As can be seen, the Union could punish Russia financially about 30 times stronger than the USA. Blackmailing these funds to cover the costs of aid to Ukraine and its reconstruction could be an important element in pressuring Putin”.

— THE MEDIA-NARRATIVE HUNT AGAINST WASHINGTON IS TO DIVERT ATTENTION FROM THE FACT THAT THE EUROPEAN UNION IS STILL DOING DECIDEDLY TOO LITTLE – WOJCZAL AGAIN: “Am I the only one who feels that the media-narrative hunt against Washington is meant to divert attention from the fact that the European Union is still doing decidedly too little to weaken Russia? In this, unfortunately, Trump and Vance are certainly right”.
https://x.com/KWojczal/status/1957027749375135810

— GERMANY'S GAS TRICK. THEY BUY RUSSIAN GAS, BUT IN A WAY THAT IT GOES TO OTHERS – ENERGETYKA24: “As international media reported, in 2024 the European Union reached a record level of LNG imports from Russia; the largest EU recipient of this commodity was France, which received 6.3 million tons, or about 10 billion cubic meters of gas. About 30% of the LNG imported to French ports was of Russian origin. Russian LNG unloaded in France largely goes to customers in… Germany”.
https://energetyka24.com/gaz/analizy-i-komentarze/gazowa-sztuczka-niemiec-kupuja-rosyjski-gaz-ale-tak-zeby-bylo-na-innych

— KEY REPUBLICAN SENATOR LINDSEY GRAHAM SAID THAT THE KEY ELEMENT OF THIS EQUATION IS THE TARIFFS IMPOSED ON COUNTRIES BUYING RUSSIAN ENERGY: “Tariffs on countries buying Russian energy are a key element of this equation, Graham said. A bill in the Senate that he is sponsoring would allow Trump to impose 500 percent tariffs on these countries. In early August, Trump raised tariffs on India to 50 percent due to that country's purchase of Russian oil. Graham claimed that these sanctions precisely pushed Putin to agree to a visit to Alaska. He added that hitting China – another major consumer of Russian oil – could prove even more crucial”.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/17/lindsey-graham-russia-ukraine-strategy-trump-putin-meeting-00513269

— DUE TO SANCTIONS, THE RUSSIANS COULDN'T PAY FOR FUEL BY CARD – BUSINESS INSIDER QUOTES RUBIO FROM NBC NEWS: “US Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed a hint of this in an interview with NBC News. — All the sanctions that were in effect on the day Donald Trump took office remain in effect, and their consequences are felt. When the Russians landed in Alaska, they wanted to refuel their planes. They had to pay cash because they can't use our banking system. They are facing consequences every day. What we truly consider important is ending this war – Marco Rubio explained on NBC News”.
https://businessinsider.com.pl/wiadomosci/rosjanie-mieli-na-alasce-problem-z-samolotem-wszystko-przez-sankcje/0ygvf3k

— A BINDING DECISION ON THE CONSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM OF POLAND WAS MADE BY… DONALD TRUMP – JAN ROKITA IN WSZYSTKO CO NAJWAŻNIEJSZE: “By inertia, one might have expected that Prime Minister Tusk, who along with his deputy Radosław Sikorski in the last weeks of Duda's presidency effectively monopolized Polish foreign policy in his hands, would overthrow the existing constitutional custom, using the method of 'per facta concludentia' (as lawyers like to say). That is, by not announcing any changes in the systemic division of tasks between the head of government and the head of state, but by effectively participating in a virtual NATO summit, and thus effectively depriving Nawrocki of this key segment of presidential power. As is known, this did not succeed, but only because a binding decision on the constitutional system of Poland was made by… Donald Trump”.

— A SIMILAR DISPUTE, BUT OVER THE CELEBRATION OF THE KATYN ANNIVERSARY IN 2010, WAS RESOLVED BY NONE OTHER THAN THE RULER OF THE KREMLIN – ROKITA CONTINUES: “Thank God that this time – in 2025 – the decisive factor in the conflict is allied America. Because it has happened before that a similar dispute, but over the celebration of the Katyn anniversary in 2010, was resolved by none other than the ruler of the Kremlin. And that we cannot afford to make such decisions ourselves is a completely different matter, and not a new one, deeply rooted in Polish history”.
https://wszystkoconajwazniejsze.pl/jan-rokita-trump-glowa-panstwa-polska-konstytucja/

— EVERYONE KNOWS THAT WARS ARE WON WITH RESERVES – I WAS RECENTLY AT MY MILITARY RECRUITMENT CENTER DUE TO A NEW MOBILIZATION ASSIGNMENT. I WAS SHOCKED BECAUSE IN THIS LINE OF SUMMONED RESERVISTS, I WAS ONE OF THE YOUNGER PEOPLE – MICHAŁ DWORCZYK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MARCIN FIJOŁEK IN DGP: “Let's move on: everyone knows that wars are won with reserves – I was recently at my Military Recruitment Center due to a new mobilization assignment. I was shocked because in this line of summoned reservists, I was one of the younger people, and I recently turned fifty. Next to me stood a man who explained to the soldier handing him the summons for training that he had recently had a heart attack. We are reaching a situation where, if, God forbid, a specialist in a particular machine or tool dies or is temporarily unable to perform their service in our army, there is no one to replace them. This problem will quickly scale up during a real war. Soon we will watch another parade, and that's good, because people have the right to be proud of the Polish Armed Forces. However, let's consider how to ensure that all these modern machines have adequate staffing and can survive on a very brutal modern front”.

— WE STARTED SOLIDLY HITTING THE SYSTEMIC CONCRETE. THIS CONCRETE, HOWEVER, MUST BE CRUSHED TO THE VERY END IF WE ARE TO ENSURE OUR SECURITY AND BUILD MILITARY POTENTIAL – DWORCZYK TELLS FIJOŁEK IN DGP: “I do not shy away from responsibility, we can also talk about our mistakes, but if we are to discuss honestly, let's also talk about the extremely important or even revolutionary changes introduced by the United Right government. The Act on the Defense of the Homeland, reversing the negative numerical trend in the Polish Armed Forces, establishing the Territorial Defense Forces and Cyber Defense Forces, committing giant funds to military modernization, launching huge equipment purchases, introducing new forms of military service such as the Academic Legion or Voluntary Basic Military Service, a significant increase in the US military presence throughout our region… I could go on. We have started to hit the systemic concrete with a hammer. This concrete, however, must be crushed to the very end if we are to ensure our security and build military potential commensurate with our aspirations. This is an ambitious goal, and to achieve it, we need to start managing resources rationally, not wasting taxpayer money”.

— A COMMOTION, NOTIFICATIONS TO THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE AND SKW, AND AT THE END A “MODIFICATION” ACTUALLY TERMINATION OF THE PROGRAM IN ITS ORIGINAL FORM – DWORCZYK TELLS FIJOŁEK ABOUT THE END OF THE SHOOTING RANGE PROJECT: “I tried to create my own program, 'Shooting Range in the County'. These were unfortunately the last months of my work in the Ministry of National Defence, so I managed to build one shooting range from it. In Podkarpacie: for 3 million PLN, in four months, with a shooting range of 300m. To this day, it is one of the best facilities in southeastern Poland. Do you know what the reaction was? A commotion, notifications to the prosecutor's office and SKW, and at the end a 'modification', and in fact, the termination of the program in its original form”.

— POLAND IS LESS PREPARED FOR WAR TODAY THAN YEARS AGO – DWORCZYK AGAIN TO FIJOŁEK: “We are witnessing further theatrical performances – the Prime Minister, for purely political reasons, halts the project for expanding ammunition production lines (National Ammunition Reserve) for 1.5 years, then frowns and says that in two years we can expect war. Then he poses for a photo with Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa in the background, rejoicing that in two years we will produce as much ammunition annually as Russia does today in a month. A 155mm projectile, developed by a Polish private company, due to pervasive inertia and sick procedures, waits for certification tests in our country for many months until the manufacturer decides to carry out these tests abroad. Everywhere you scratch – a problem, a mistake, lethargy. We could treat this as a journalistic piece, mocking the successive 'Dyźmas' in the Ministry of National Defence and its affiliated companies, but times do not favor this. The facts are that Poland is less prepared for war today than a few years ago”.
https://edgp.gazetaprawna.pl/e-wydanie/60040,14-sierpnia-2025/79731,DGP-Magazyn/965756,Gdzie-nie-poskrobiesz-tam-niedasizm.html

— AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF WAR MOBILIZATION, PICTURES OF YOUNG UKRAINIANS HAVING FUN AT CONCERTS IN WARSAW, KRAKOW, OR WROCLAW EVOKE EMOTIONS IN POLAND, BUT EVEN MORE SO IN UKRAINE ITSELF – SŁAWEK ZAGÓRSKI IN WP: “Against the backdrop of war mobilization, pictures of young Ukrainians having fun at concerts in Warsaw, Krakow, or Wroclaw evoke emotions in Poland, but even more so in Ukraine itself. Recordings from clubs and outdoor events, showing crowds of twenty-somethings without any trace of war tension, are going viral on social media, which Russian propaganda skillfully exploits. For them, it's a golden opportunity”.

— WHILE THE PEERS OF THE PARTYGOERS ARE STANDING IN TRENCHES NEAR POKROWSK OR CHASIV YAR, THEY – PROTECTED BY REFUGEE OR STUDENT STATUS – ARE LIVING FAR FROM THE WAR – ZAGÓRSKI CONTINUES IN WP: “For some recipients in Ukraine, this is a painful contrast. While the peers of the partygoers are standing in trenches near Pokrovsk or Chasiv Yar, they – protected by refugee or student status – are living far from the war in an almost undisturbed daily life. This also greatly irritates ordinary Poles, who have helped Ukraine as much as they could for years of war”.
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/bolesny-kontrast-mlodzi-ukraincy-mowia-ze-chca-bronic-ojczyzny-ale-ochotnikow-nie-przybywa-7188816455277312a

— UNSETTLING DATA FROM ZUS. THE RECORD HOLDER OWES 819 MILLION PLN. “SIGNAL OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS” – GAZETA.PL: “Over 625,000 active payers in the first half of 2025 had debts with ZUS. The average debt amount was PLN 33,700. Experts are looking at the latest data with concern. This may be a harbinger of bigger problems in the coming years, especially if the economic situation deteriorates – he emphasized. In turn, legal advisor Aldona Międlar-Adamska from the Ars Aequi law firm warns that the increase in the number of indebted payers by 0.6% while the debt increased by 7.6% year-on-year indicates a deteriorating financial situation for some payers”.
https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,32177729,powazny-sygnal-z-zus-rekordzista-zadluzony-na-819-mln-zl-sygnal.html

— ETATISTS DOMINATE ON BOTH SIDES – ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “Polish democrats and 'republicans' are basically not differentiated by socio-economic views. Both of them are mostly 'socialists': based on CBOS research (communication 43/2025), it can be estimated that 78% of democrats and 80% of 'republicans' believe that 'the state should provide citizens with a high level of social benefits', 57% of democrats and 73% of 'republicans' – that 'a significant number of enterprises should be state-owned'; also a majority, i.e. 51% of democrats and 57% of 'republicans', are supporters of progressive personal income tax”.

— DISPUTE OVER ABORTION, CIVIL UNIONS, AND PATRIARCHY – MACHOWSKI AGAIN IN GW: “Significant differences between Polish democrats and 'republicans' primarily concern worldview issues [chart A1-4 under the article]. Democrats are clearly progressive: 62% of them are in favor (decidedly or rather) of legal civil unions for same-sex couples, 63% – of full access to abortion, 62% believe the concordat is unnecessary, and less than a third regularly participate in religious practices. The profile of 'republicans', on the other hand, is decidedly conservative: 63% (decidedly or rather) disagree with the legal admissibility of civil unions, 51% are for an abortion ban, 58% state that the concordat is necessary, and as many as 62% of them regularly participate in religious practices”.

— 58% OF DEMOCRATS AND ONLY 31% OF 'REPUBLICANS' SUPPORT UKRAINE (ALSO IN ITS EFFORTS TO JOIN THE EU) – MACHOWSKI WRITES FURTHER IN GW: “Democrats and 'republicans' also view our relations with Ukraine differently: 58% of democrats and only 31% of 'republicans' support helping Ukraine (including its efforts to join the EU); 28% of democrats and as many as 49% of 'republicans' share the opinion that Poland should not get particularly involved on Ukraine's side”.

— GENERALLY, THE “HALF AND HALF” DIVISION OF POLAND IS STABLE, AND WHO WINS SUBSEQUENT ELECTIONS IS DECIDED BY MOBILIZATION – MACHOWSKI AGAIN IN GW: “Generally, the 'half and half' division of Poland is stable, and who wins subsequent elections is decided by mobilization. Significantly better on the democrats' side in 2023 allowed them to remove PiS from power after eight years. Weaker among democrats, and strong among 'republicans', led to Nawrocki's victory in 2025 (if the democrats' mobilization had been like in 2023, Trzaskowski would have won the election despite about 200,000 democratic voters from 2023 switching to the republican camp)”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32180401,demokraci-i-republikanie-wersja-pl-czyli-co-dzieli-polakow.html

— “DID THE CONTROVERSIES REGARDING THE PAYMENT OF FUNDS FROM THE KPO TO REPRESENTATIVES OF THE HOTEL AND CATERING INDUSTRY (HORECA) INFLUENCE YOUR PERCEPTION OF THE GOVERNMENT?” – SW RESEARCH FOR “RZECZPOSPOLITA”:
Yes, I now assess the government worse - 38.6%
No - 30.3%
I haven't heard about this matter - 23%
Yes, I now assess the government better - 8.1%
https://businessinsider.com.pl/wiadomosci/dwa-pytania-o-kpo-afera-ciagnie-rzad-w-dol-sondaz/9fym6z4

— IN THE OGB POLL, A STRONG REBOUND FOR PIS (+4), KO IN THE LEAD, BUT A DEFEAT FOR THE REMAINING COALITION PARTIES: https://x.com/OGB_Pro/status/1957330246849450000

— BIRTHDAYS: Zbigniew Ziobro turns 55.


Łukasz Mężyk