state of play: 07/26/2025

GAME STATE: Tusk Returns to War Narrative. PiS Strategist Mocks His Mistake: Who Will Defend Us from the Russians? The European Commission, Strasbourg Court, or the USA? Tusk Lacks Washington Connections

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 2015 VS. 2025 ANDRZEJ DUDA: THE MOST IMPORTANT DECISIONS DURING MY PRESIDENCY WERE THOSE CONCERNING THE STATIONING OF NORTH ATLANTIC ALLIANCE SOLDIERS IN POLAND, ON NATO'S EASTERN FLANK, UNDER THE PATRONAGE OF THE UNITED STATES. https://x.com/KatarzynaPawlak/status/1949031524839428278 -- TUSK RETURNS TO THE WAR NARRATIVE: I expected precise information and I received it, namely that according to all assessments in NATO and the USA, Russia and China will be ready for a global confrontation as early as 2027, in 2 years. And that Americans are seriously preparing for a situation, not a war situation, it's not about some tragic forecasts, but for a situation where both the American side and my guest, General Grynkewich, are convinced that our global opponents, and for Poland, this specifically means Russia, will be ready for such a confrontation precisely in 2027. https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/26/tusk-polska-i-europa-musi-byc-gotowa-na-rozne-zdarzenia-w-ciagu-najblizszych-2-lat/ -- TUSK CONTINUES ON THE WAR SITUATION: We will shift the main stream of money from foreign arms purchases to the development of Polish industry. Russia's plan is simple. Today I hear from opposition politicians or right-wing activists that the biggest problem is either Ukraine, Germany, or the EU. I don't know how many rubles had to be paid to create such texts, such propaganda. https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/26/tusk-polska-i-europa-musi-byc-gotowa-na-rozne-zdarzenia-w-ciagu-najblizszych-2-lat/ -- ONE OF THE KEY PIS STRATEGISTS ON WHATSAPP WITH 300POLITYKA CELEBRATES TUSK'S COMEBACK LINE: And who will defend us from the Russians? Germany, the European Commission, the Strasbourg Court, Shine, or Temu? Or the USA? War is approaching and Tusk has no relations in Washington. -- WHAT ELSE DID TUSK SAY IN PABIANICE: Unfortunately, sometimes within the vicinity or even within the ruling coalition, there's a rather nightmarish race, I don't know, of idiots or traitors. "Quite a nightmarish race of idiots or traitors." Tusk on "an attempt to create constant chaos." https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/26/nie-dam-sie-sprowokowac-ani-przeciwnikom-ani-przyjaciolom-tusk-w-pabianicach-sklada-uroczyste-przyrzeczenie/ -- "I CAN NO LONGER COUNT ON ANYONE ELSE, ONLY ON YOU, ON THE PEOPLE". TUSK IN PABIANICE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/26/na-nikogo-wiecej-juz-nie-moge-liczyc-tylko-na-was-na-ludzi-tusk-w-pabianicach/ -- TUSK ON THE COALITION: The ruling coalition has been disturbingly diverse in opinions and actions in recent days and hours. You see who I have to work with on a daily basis. Okay, this is the choice of Poles, I will continue to work. https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/26/tusk-widzicie-z-kim-musze-pracowac-na-co-dzien-ok-taki-jest-wybor-polakow-bede-dalej-pracowal/ -- REMOVING THE CHAINS AND TELLING EVERYONE WHO REPORTS TO ME IN THE GOVERNMENT: ENOUGH CODDLING AND NO MORE JOKES - STILL TUSK TODAY IN PABIANICE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/26/tusk-to-byl-glowny-powod-dla-ktorego-ta-rekonstrukcja-sie-zdarzyla/ -- "IT'S A BIT LIKE WITH CHILDREN ON HOLIDAY". TUSK COMMENTS ON HOŁOWNIA'S WORDS AND SPEAKS OF SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/26/to-troche-jak-z-dziecmi-na-wakacjach-tusk-komentuje-slowa-holowni-i-mowi-o-powaznych-konsekwencjach/ -- IPSOS POLL FOR TVP WITHOUT UNDECIDED VOTERS: PiS 30.1% (+1.2) KO 25.8% (-5.3) Konf 15.1% (-3.8) Razem 6.5% (+2.1) Lewica 6.5% (+0.9) PL 2050 5.4% Braun 5.4% PSL 4.3% Others 1.1% (-1.1) https://x.com/DawidStats/status/1949060353846874496 -- FROM 7% UNDECIDED VOTERS: PiS 28 KO 24 Konf 14 Razem 6 Lewica 6 PL2050 5 Braun 5 PSL 4 https://x.com/tvp_info/status/1949047068267315514 -- TUSK: THERE WILL BE NO SUCH POLAND, AS LONG AS I AM PRIME MINISTER, WHERE THE POLICE AND PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE SAY "THESE ELECTIONS DON'T MATTER, WE WILL COUNT THE VOTES" https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/26/tusk-nie-bedzie-takiej-polski-poki-jestem-premierem-gdzie-policja-i-prokuratura-beda-mowily-niewazne-sa-te-wybory-my-policzymy-glosy/ -- A BEAR WITH GREAT POLITICAL INTELLECT. ANOTHER TRIUMPH FOR MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI, THE RECONSTRUCTION IS HIS SUCCESS - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: "Breaking up Poland 2050 would have been easy, but the prime minister would have lost his parliamentary majority if he had gone to war with Hołownia. So he had to back down and capitulate. Szymon Hołownia will get what he wanted. He will step down from the Speaker of the Sejm position according to the coalition agreement in November, and his party will get the position of Deputy Prime Minister. Ministers Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz and Paulina Hennig-Kloska were spared, even though Tusk wanted to guillotine them. Kamiński's friend Radek Sikorski became Deputy Prime Minister and has a clear path to the premiership, and perhaps even the coveted presidency. The coalition survived. Tusk had to move and will continue to move further. And Misiek?" -- MISIEK IS NOT DONE YET, HE IS JUST GETTING STARTED - NIZINKIEWICZ CONTINUES: "Kamiński is completely absorbed by his relations with the USA. He has built contacts there for decades, he is credible, proven, and he does not change his stance in foreign relations as easily as in domestic ones. Two things are certain: Michał Kamiński, when he plays politics, it's like he used to party - intensely. And another thing is certain, perhaps even more important: Misiek is not done yet, he is just getting started." https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42738821-mis-o-bardzo-duzym-politycznym-rozumku-jeszcze-jeden-triumf-michala-kaminskiego -- THE PEASANTS HAVEN'T BEEN THIS HAPPY IN A LONG TIME, NOT SINCE THE GOVERNMENT RECONSTRUCTION. TUSK GAVE THEM A FLOOD OF POWER AND POSITIONS. THIS IS NO ACCIDENT - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN NEWSWEEK: "The quick unmasking of the meetings put an end to the conspiracy. But the government reconstruction shows that Tusk understood the risks. By pampering all the coalition partners, especially the peasants, the prime minister has practically gilded them – they received a new, powerful energy ministry, which is teeming with positions." -- THE PEASANTS MAY RUN IN 2027 IN AN ELECTORAL COALITION WITH PLATFORM, ASSUMING TUSK DOES NOT TAKE THE LEFT ON BOARD - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES IN NEWSWEEK: "There is also an alternative option on the table, which Tusk is tempting the peasants with – hence these reconstructive caresses. The peasants may run in 2027 in an electoral coalition with Platform, assuming Tusk does not take the Left on board. Kosiniak has a trauma from the 2019 European elections, when he agreed to a joint list with Platform and the Left, and as a result was hammered by PiS as "rainbow Władek". https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/stankiewicz-kaczynski-nie-chce-przyspieszonych-wyborow-ma-jeden-powod/b0r2twx,452ad802 -- TUSK PLANNED A COUP AND INCITED MARSHAL SZYMON HOŁOWNIA TO IT, I HOPE THERE WILL COME A MOMENT WHEN BOTH WŁADYSŁAW KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ AND SZYMON HOŁOWNIA WILL JOIN THE CAMP OF DEMOCRATS, JOIN SUCH A DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY - ADAM BIELAN IN CONVERSATION WITH KAMIL SZEWCZYK IN SE: "I am glad that this dinner took place. Donald Tusk planned a coup and incited Marshal Szymon Hołownia to do it. Today in Poland we have a very clear choice: democrats versus people who want to take away Poles' right to choose a president. Karol Nawrocki received the largest number of votes since 1990 in the presidential elections, and Tusk, solely to maintain his position as prime minister, tried to take away this choice from the Poles who voted for Karol Nawrocki. These divisions are very clear today. I hope there will come a moment when both Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Szymon Hołownia will join the camp of democrats, join such a democratic majority that will put Poland back on the right track." https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/europosel-pis-adam-bielan-dla-super-expressu-nie-zorganizowalbym-kolacji-kaczynskiego-z-tuskiem-aa-HCtW-zZJ2-fxVz.html -- TUSK'S GOVERNMENT RECONSTRUCTION CARRIES A MESSAGE: THE END OF MOURNING FOR NAWROCKI'S VICTORY, WE ARE STARTING A TOUGH GAME WITH PIS - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "The changes herald that Tusk is preparing for a tough battle with Nawrocki. The message? The end of mourning for PiS's victory in the presidential elections, the government still has many instruments at its disposal, the ball is still in play, we are closing ranks." -- A NEW SCENARIO MAY BE PREPARED, E.G., AT THE BEGINNING OF 2027, TUSK WOULD HAND OVER THE POSITION TO SIKORSKI, RETAINING LEADERSHIP IN THE PARTY - WIELOWIEYSKA CLAIMS IN GW: "If his and the government's approval ratings do not improve, a new scenario may be prepared, e.g., at the beginning of 2027, Tusk would hand over the position to Sikorski, retaining leadership in the party. Sikorski – contrary to the rumors being spread – is loyal to the prime minister. Even if he were to head the government, he knows that he does not control the party. Tusk is the player here. Both would have to form a tandem that would pull this cart. A symptom of preparations for such solutions are unofficial reports that Civic Platform has commissioned in-depth research on who would be a more popular new prime minister: Trzaskowski or Sikorski." -- OPENING THE DOOR TO TALKS WITH CONFEDERATION AFTER THE 2027 ELECTIONS. WHO BETTER SUITED FOR THIS THAN THE FOREIGN MINISTER? - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES IN GW: "Putting Sikorski forward also has another advantage: opening the door to talks with Confederation after the 2027 elections. Who better suited for this than the Foreign Minister? The famous beer with Sławomir Mentzen in a pub during the presidential campaign, which Sikorski endorsed, is a symbol of this. The majority (though not all) of the KO electorate allows for a coalition with Confederation if it were the only way to block PiS's return to power. Of course, this scenario is not liked by Krzysztof Bosak's nationalists, but Mentzen's liberals view it differently, and today they have an advantage over the national movement thanks to their leader's good result in the presidential elections." -- TUSK STARTS TO SHOUT, KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ TURNS RED, SZYMON FALLS INTO STUPOR - WIELOWIEYSKA QUOTES AN OPINION FROM THE CORRIDORS: "– How do the meetings of the leaders of the October 15 Coalition look? Tusk starts to shout, Kosiniak-Kamysz turns red, Szymon falls into stupor, and Czarzasty has a calm, bored expression, because he couldn't care less and wants to reach the moment when he becomes Speaker of the Sejm – I hear an opinion in the Sejm corridors." https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32124184,rekonstrukcja-rzadu-tuska-ma-przeslanie-koniec-zaloby-po-wygranej.html -- BODNAR IS BITTER BECAUSE HE WAS CHEWED UP BY TUSK AND THEN SPAT OUT - RENATA GROCHAL IN NEWSWEEK: "After his resignation, Adam Bodnar will remain a senator. Will he lose his sentiment for politics? His people say he is bitter because he was chewed up by Tusk and then spat out. The question remains whether this government, after the reconstruction, will find a new idea for itself." https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/bodnar-jest-rozgoryczony-zostal-przezuty-przez-tuska/ps45ngq -- ALTHOUGH BODNAR'S ACTIONS OFTEN CAUSED CONTROVERSY OR EVEN INCIDENTALLY VIOLATED THE RULES OF THE RULE OF LAW - NEVERTHELESS, AS A RULE, THEY FELL WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE INSTRUMENTARIUM OF THE RULE OF GOVERNMENTS - KRZYSZTOF IZDEBSKI FROM THE BATORY FOUNDATION ON TVN24: "Although his first, still very brief, appearance in his new role was maintained in the atmosphere accompanying the first days after the current parliamentary coalition's victory, he is entering a battlefield where many types of weapons have already been tested. Adam Bodnar tried to fire at the ancien regime and restore the rule of law using various methods which – although they often caused controversy or even incidentally violated the principles of the rule of law – nevertheless, as a rule, fell within the framework of the instrumentarium of the rule of governments. Understood as the action of public bodies based on and within the limits of the law." -- DEMOCRACY AND THE RULE OF LAW ARE RIGID FRAMEWORKS OF INSTITUTIONS AND PROCEDURES THAT GUARANTEE EVERYONE THE RIGHT TO A FAIR TRIAL - IZDEBSKI CONTINUES ON TVN24: "I am also a fan of Westerns, films about lone vigilantes and superheroes fighting violence on the streets of Gotham City. But life is not a movie, and democracy is not a script that can be arranged so that moved viewers applaud after the credits. Democracy and the rule of law are rigid frameworks of institutions and procedures that guarantee everyone the right to a fair trial. Regardless of our sympathies and antipathies." -- RESTORING THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE NATIONAL COUNCIL OF THE JUDICIARY AND THE SUPREME COURT THROUGH CHANGES IN REGULATIONS, NOT BY USING A ROSOMAK ARMORED VEHICLE TO SEIZE THE KRS HEADQUARTERS - IZDEBSKI CONTINUES ON TVN24: "But this does not mean that it can be reversed by any means. The European Court of Human Rights, in the pilot judgment Wałęsa v. Poland from two years ago, ordered the authorities to restore the independence of the National Council of the Judiciary and the Supreme Court by amending the regulations. Not – as some enthusiasts of the reckoning slogan call for – by revoking access cards for so-called neo-judges or – in the case of some members of the Council barricading themselves – by using a Rosomak to seize the KRS headquarters. The latter is more of a joke than a threat, but it well illustrates the emotions accompanying the process of reckoning and restoring the rule of law." -- THE EVENTUAL DEPRIVATION OF SOMEONE'S FREEDOM CANNOT, AFTER ALL, BE BASED SOLELY ON THE EMOTIONS OF PART OF THE ELECTORATE - IZDEBSKI WRITES FURTHER IN TVN24: "The eventual deprivation of someone's freedom cannot, after all, be based solely on the emotions of part of the electorate, press materials (even the best documented), or political will. And yet, one of the commentators expressed his dissatisfaction with such an arrangement of the process scheme in Bodnar's post and stated that he was dismissed precisely because of his excessive attachment to procedures, and these should be limited to: "notification, entry at 6 am, arrest for 3 months, lifting immunity, sentence." -- IT MAY TURN OUT THAT WITH A HIGH LEVEL OF EXPECTATIONS REGARDING THE NON-STANDARD ACTIONS OF THE NEW MINISTER, THERE WILL BE EVEN GREATER DISAPPOINTMENT DUE TO HIS POWERLESSNESS - IZDEBSKI FURTHER ON TVN24: "It is simply not possible to settle accounts faster. And if someone expects this – following the comment quoted above – they must be prepared for it to come at the cost of the foundations of democracy. It may therefore turn out that with a high level of expectations regarding the non-standard actions of the new minister, there will be even greater disappointment due to his powerlessness, or if he is forced to circumvent procedures, the state will be compromised before the European Court of Human Rights. The politicians of Law and Justice could not wish for a better gift." -- QUITE A LARGE GROUP OF COMMENTATORS ARE EMBRACING THIS NARRATIVE, INDIRECTLY URGING THE GOVERNMENT AND THE MARSHAL TO BREAK THE LAW IN THE NAME OF UNCONFIRMED FACTS - IZDEBSKI CONTINUES: "This is not about catching the rabbit – because Roman Giertych is well aware that there is no rabbit – but only about chasing it and thus building his political environment around conspiracy theories. Moreover, at the expense of the prime minister, because ultimately he is responsible for the actions of the ruling coalition. He and Waldemar Żurek will never solve a problem that doesn't exist, but they can always be attacked for it. Especially since a quite large group of commentators are embracing this narrative, indirectly urging the government and the marshal to break the law in the name of unconfirmed facts." https://tvn24.pl/polska/rekonstrukcja-rzadu-ministerstwo-sprawiedliwosci-waldemar-zurek-za-adama-bodnara-co-go-czeka-st8572265 -- KIERWIŃSKI IS TO IGNITE EMOTIONS IN THE ELECTORATE, AS WHEN WĄSIK AND KAMIŃSKI – DESPITE TRICKS AND MANEUVERS – COULD NOT ESCAPE JUSTICE - PATRYK MICHALSKI IN WP: "– This is a clear announcement that Marcin Kierwiński, in his role, is to act in such a way that people will believe again that "everyone is equal before the law." He is to ignite emotions in the electorate, as when Wąsik and Kamiński – despite tricks and maneuvers – could not escape justice – says an important PO politician unofficially." https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/czwarte-okrazenie-kierwinskiego-wrocic-do-emocji-jak-przy-wyciaganiu-wasika-i-kaminskiego-z-palacu-7181795329911392a -- JANUSZ CIESZYŃSKI TO IZABELA LESZCZYNA: "You took responsibility for a ministry that is a resort of last choice for politicians. You worked until the end according to your vision. And for the hard work – respect. Anyone who has never been to Miodowa 15 will never understand." https://x.com/jciesz/status/1948466933776433283 -- BITTERNESS AND UNEASE IN THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH. AFTER LESZCZYNA WAS DISMISSED, THE MINISTRY HAS DIVIDED INTO CAMPS - JUDYTA WATOŁA IN GW: "Jolanta Sobierańska-Grenda is a professional, but without political backing. Who will she choose as her collaborators? That remains a mystery to everyone. – The mood is mixed. Some are happy that professionals will come, as the prime minister announced. Others are terribly afraid that the prime minister's announcement of complete depoliticization of the ministry means the announcement of losing positions. And generally, it is known that when a new broom comes, it sweeps clean. However, in no other ministry has the prime minister announced such extensive changes. And this pisses people off. They believe that Tusk treated health more harshly than other sectors – we hear from an MZ employee." -- THE STAFF FOR MINISTER JOLANTA SOBIERAŃSKA-GRENDA WILL BE CHOSEN BY THE HEAD OF NFZ FILIP NOWAK IN COOPERATION WITH JAKUB SZULC, CURRENTLY DEPUTY PRESIDENT OF NFZ - WATOŁA CONTINUES IN GW: "Others point out that the prime minister praised the head of NFZ since 2020 on Wednesday, Filip Nowak. – I immediately said that if the head of NFZ is good, I don't care that he is from the previous political era. I am only interested in the health of Poles and accessibility in this context – stated the prime minister. According to our interlocutors, this may mean that the staff for minister Jolanta Sobierańska-Grenda will be chosen precisely by Filip Nowak in cooperation with Jakub Szulc, currently the deputy president of NFZ, and in the times of Tusk's previous government, the deputy minister of health." -- THERE IS A TERRIBLE LACK OF MONEY IN NFZ. SUCH A CRISIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE - WATOŁA'S INTERLOCUTORS IN GW: "Other interlocutors believe that it may only be a transitional period, after which the new minister will organize the ministry her own way. But they ask themselves if she will have time for it: – There is a terrible lack of money in NFZ. Such a crisis has never happened before. I don't know how the new minister will manage to control the situation. Her mission may turn out to be suicidal." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32127013,gorycz-i-niepokoj-w-ministerstwo-zdrowia-po-odwolaniu-leszczyny.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Zbysław Owczarski, Katarzyna Montgomery. SUNDAY: Wiesław Władyka, Grzegorz Kajdanowicz, Jacek Tomczak, Stanisław Gorczyca.

Łukasz Mężyk