Will Czarzasty travel to Ukraine? The Marshal Responds
state of play: 07/23/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Tusk's "You'll Be Surprised" Ahead of Government Shake-up, Res Futura: A New Conflict Emerges in the Third Republic - Between Migrant and Polish Earnings
-- JAKUB WIECH:
First, the MARIA reactor was supposed to restart on May 9th.
Then - by the end of June.
Then - by the end of July.
Now - "within two to three weeks."
I'm speechless, ladies and gentlemen.
https://x.com/PremierRP/status/1947929587599741282
-- YOU'LL BE SURPRISED - DONALD TUSK PRESENTS CHANGES IN THE GOVERNMENT OF "COMMANDOS" - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/23/
-- ?JAKUB RUTNICKI REPLACES SŁAWOMIR NITRAS.
-- WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT'S GOING ON - HEARD AMONGST MINISTRY OF JUSTICE EMPLOYEES - MAGDALENA GAŁCZYŃSKA ON ONEZET:
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/adam-bodnar-do-dymisji-glos-z-otoczenia-nie-mamy-pojecia-co-sie-dzieje/1gmmr3s,79cfc278
-- EXTREMELY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS FOR PURSUING ANY EFFECTIVE POLICY COULD TURN THE PLANNED NEW OPENING INTO THE BEGINNING OF PROLONGED AGONY - WITOLD GŁOWACKI IN OKO.PRESS: "The scale of the reshuffle, which will encompass the government, will therefore most likely not be small. Much suggests that Donald Tusk will make far more formal and structural changes than the realities of just a few days ago would imply. However, this does not change the fact that just two weeks after the government reconstruction, Poland faces another important political event. On August 6th, the new occupant of the Presidential Palace, Karol Nawrocki, will be sworn in. He will be the main challenge that Donald Tusk's refreshed government will have to face. The Prime Minister and his old and new ministers will operate under extremely difficult conditions for pursuing any effective policy. These conditions could turn the planned new opening into the beginning of prolonged agony."
-- TUSK IS TODAY AN UNPOPULAR HEAD OF A POORLY RATED GOVERNMENT - GŁOWACKI CONTINUES IN OKO: "For Donald Tusk, this is still a game with very high, personal stakes. After 646 days that have passed since the October 15, 2023 elections, the then-victor, capable of leading hundreds of thousands of supporters to the streets of Warsaw in an almost triumphant march to electoral success, is today an unpopular head of a poorly rated government."
-- THE WORSE THE CONDITION OF THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION, THE MORE DONALD TUSK IS TO BLAME FOR IT - GŁOWACKI CONTINUES IN OKO: "And after this defeat, the prospect of democrats losing power to an alliance of PiS and Confederation in the next parliamentary elections has become entirely real. In the eyes of voters, commentators, and political rivals, the worse the condition of the October 15 coalition, the more Donald Tusk is to blame for it. Today, the head of government is fighting to remain on the stage as the one who defeated PiS. Not as the one who handed power back to them once again."
https://oko.press/rekonstrukcja-rzadu-wieksza-czy-da-efekt-nowego-otwarcia
-- TUSK WANTS TO SHOW HE WILL FIGHT HARD WITH NAWROCKI AND WON'T SELL HIMSELF CHEAPLY TO KACZYŃSKI - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON ONEZET: "The new government is a response to Karol Nawrocki's electoral victory and the conviction of PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński that he will return to power. Tusk wants to show that he will fight hard with Nawrocki and won't sell himself cheaply to Kaczyński. The next two years - until the parliamentary elections - will be a time of political warfare even more brutal than before."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/rekonstrukcja-rzadu-egzekutor-tusk-wyrzuca-pol-rzadu-komentarz/gxps6k7,79cfc278
-- THERE IS A "RED LINE" BEYOND WHICH THE GOVERNMENT WILL NO LONGER BE ABLE TO REGAIN CONTROL OVER ANY EFFECTIVE POLITICAL NARRATIVE - SAYS MICHAŁ FEDOROWICZ FROM THE EUROPEAN ANALYTICAL COLLECTIVE RES FUTURA - IN AN INTERVIEW WITH GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN MONEY: "There is a 'red line' - a critical moment, beyond which the government will no longer be able to regain control over any effective political narrative."
-- THIS BORDER IS THE BEGINNING OF 2026 - FEDOROWICZ CONTINUES FROM RES FUTURA IN MONEY: "Looking at the dynamics, this border is the end of the fourth, beginning of the first quarter of 2026. If by then the government does not get its own bubble under control, then this government will simply not be defended by its own voter group. They will look for other political offers, other leaders, other solutions. Even though there will still be a very strong 'anti-PiS' sentiment, they will opt for stronger political organizations that will decisively, strongly, and firmly resolve the issues of PiS and populism in general for them. These are the liberals or centrists who are terrified that the government is not protecting them from the populism of PiS or Confederation."
-- THE BIGGEST CRITIC OF DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT ARE NO LONGER PIIS OR CONFEDERATION VOTERS, BUT DISSATISFIED KO VOTERS, WE HAVEN'T OBSERVED THIS BEFORE - SAYS RES FUTURA ANALYST TO ŻÓŁCIAK AND OSIECKI: "The biggest critic of Donald Tusk's government are no longer PiS or Confederation voters, but dissatisfied KO voters. This criticism translates across social media in a way we haven't observed before. They are primarily holding the government accountable for inaction against PiS and allowing President-elect Karol Nawrocki to be sworn in on August 6th. Adam Bodnar is mainly in their crosshairs. Until now, the opposition bubble criticized the government, while the bubble of coalition party voters, especially KO, defended it."
-- THE DISTRIBUTION NETWORK FOR POSITIVE INFORMATION SIMPLY DOES NOT EXIST - IT IS OFFENDED AND DOES NOT SUPPORT - CLAIMS FEDOROWICZ: "Paradoxically, this situation does not concern the spokesperson's position at all. From an algorithmic perspective, if we have one piece of positive information, for it to spread further, there need to be views and interactions. And this distribution network simply does not exist - it is offended and does not support."
-- THIS IS A NEW CONFLICT, WHICH WE HAVE NOT HAD IN THE THIRD REPUBLIC - A CONFLICT BETWEEN THE EARNINGS OF MIGRANTS AND THE EARNINGS OF POLES - CLAIMS THE ANALYST FROM RES FUTURA: "We are observing the transformation of 'soft PiS,' which just six months ago said it agreed with labor migration, and today is against migration in general. A new economic conflict is developing - concerning the bringing of refugees into factories. In the narrative of Confederation and PiS, migrants are not so much taking jobs as they are lowering wages - they work for minimum wage where the job could have been done for an average wage. This is a new conflict that we haven't had in the Third Republic - a conflict between the earnings of migrants and the earnings of Poles."
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/wyborcy-sa-rozczarowani-miekkoscia-tuska-ekspert-rzad-ma-bunt-na-pokladzie-7179689461381728a.html
-- DIRECTOR KATARZYNA. HAS PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ TAKEN OVER HOŁOWNIA'S PARTY? - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: "One hears extreme opinions about the minister. She is said to be competent and very effective, but at the same time conflict-prone and unable to cooperate with people. However, everyone confirms her great ambitions and influence over Szymon Hołownia."
-- AT VARIOUS TIMES, EVEN ON DAYS WHEN THE SEJM IS NOT IN SESSION, A LONELY FIGURE APPEARS IN THE PARLIAMENT BUILDING. SHE ENTERS THE STAIRS OF THE MAIN HALL AND DISAPPEARS INTO THE CORRIDORS LEADING TO THE MARSHAL'S OFFICE - WRITES ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK: "At various times, even on days when the Sejm is not in session, a lonely figure appears in the parliament building. She enters the stairs of the main hall and disappears into the corridors leading to Marshal Hołownia's office. This is Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, Minister of Funds and Regional Policy from Poland 2050, the most controversial member of Donald Tusk's government. She has long allowed herself open criticism of the Prime Minister and public feuds with ministers from other political groups. If we were to compare the problems plaguing the current government to a cyclone, Pełczyńska-Nałęcz would be right in its eye."
-- SHE EXERCISES ACTUAL CONTROL OVER THE ACTIONS OF POLSKA 2050 TODAY - ŚMIŁOWICZ CONTINUES IN TP: "– She has gained almost unlimited access to Hołownia and, as a result, promotes herself and blocks others. The only problem is that the boss doesn't know this, so he thinks she's the only person working in the party – says a member of parliament from Poland 2050. – I remember when we agreed that someone else would commission certain research. Then it turned out that Kasia didn't approve and did it herself. She likes to have control over everything – he adds."
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/kierowniczka-katarzyna-czy-pelczynska-nalecz-przejela-partie-holowni-191269
-- BIRTHDAYS: Robert Kropiwnicki, Waldy Dzikowski, Marcin Witko, Marcin Wójcicki, Karol Darmoros.
live
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„He Doesn't Know What He Signed, He Compromised Himself at the Press Conference.” — Müller on Tusk
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