state of play: 07/22/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Poland's Historic Debt, Dudek Warns of Top 7-8 Most Indebted EU Countries

Łukasz Mężyk

-- "POLSKA 2050 WILL HAVE A DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER FROM NOVEMBER". PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ ON COALITION AGREEMENTS, HOŁOWNIA ON MEETING WITH PRESIDENT-ELECT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/22 -- TO WHICH ADDRESS SHOULD I SEND AN UMBRELLA - JANUSZ CIESZYŃSKI TO ADAM SZŁAPKA ON THE STATEMENT ABOUT A NEW BEGINNING: https://x.com/jciesz/status/1947571905268953128 -- DISAPPOINTING TRADE DATA - ING ECONOMISTS: “Weaker sales dynamics for cars and parts, as well as furniture, RTV, and home appliances” https://x.com/ING_EconomicsPL/status/1947571905268953128 -- THE LEVEL OF DEBT IS THE HIGHEST IN HISTORY. IT GREW BY PLN 30.5 BILLION IN ONE MONTH - MACIEJ RUDTKE IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “The State Treasury's debt at the end of June 2025 amounted to approximately PLN 1,803 billion – according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance. This means the debt grew by PLN 30.5 billion (i.e., 1.7 percent) in one month. The level of debt is the highest in history.” https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/tak-rosnie-zadluzenie-skarbu-panstwa-kolejna-bariera-przebita/bdve631 -- THE NEW GOVERNMENT HAS STEPPED INTO ITS PREDECESSORS' SHOES AND STARTED INCREASING EXPENDITURE - SŁAWOMIR DUDEK FROM THE PUBLIC FINANCE INSTITUTE QUOTED BY IRENEUSZ SUDAK IN GW: “- It is very worrying that the public finance situation is not being discussed in political debates. It's not a matter of interpretation, but of facts, for example, that we are in an excessive deficit procedure, and our indicators, instead of improving, are deteriorating – says Sławomir Dudek. - Poland is currently a global phenomenon: we have Swedish [implying high-red.] public expenditures and Irish [implying low-red.] taxes. We have been convinced that we can afford everything – says Dudek. If we don't change anything, according to the EC, we will find ourselves among the 7-8 most indebted countries in the EU, and our debt will exceed 100% of GDP.” -- IN POLAND, THE POLITICAL CLASS, DESPITE A RECORD BUDGET AND DEFICIT, IS PREPARING FURTHER ELECTORAL GIFTS AND SOCIAL TRANSFERS - IRENEUSZ SUDAK FURTHER IN GW: “It's not only in Romania that talks of sacrifices and tax increases are heard. Great Britain and France have introduced significant tax hikes. Paris has not finished with budget cuts yet – the budget law for next year is to include further cuts, e.g., the abolition of two days off work. In Poland, however, the political class, despite a record budget and deficit, is preparing further electoral gifts and social transfers. Romania's debt is projected to reach 59% this year and exceed 63% next year. For comparison: Poland's projected public debt is currently around 57-58% according to EU statistics.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147582,32117488,spieszmy-sie-wydawac-pieniadze-bo-zaraz-moze-ich-nie-byc.html -- ZYGMUNT SOLORZ REMOVED FROM CYFROWY POLSAT - DOMINIKA MACIEJASZ IN GW: “Zygmunt Solorz has been removed from the position of chairman of the supervisory board of the company, and Daniel Kaczorowski has been appointed in his place. The group also removed Mirosław Błaszczyk, who held the position of CEO of the management board, appointing Andrzej Abramczuk in his place. Abramczuk was previously associated with Netia S.A., where he served as CEO, and Kaczorowski is a legal advisor who advised companies within the Polsat Plus Group for years, including Cyfrowy Polsat S.A.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177151,32120039,zygmunt-solorz-spadl-z-wysokiego-stolka-grupa-polsat-odwolala.html -- TO STOP THE SLOW DECLINE OF THIS GOVERNMENT, PRIME MINISTER TUSK MUST TIP THE SCALES ON WEDNESDAY - MARIUSZ JAŁOSZEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “To stop the slow decline of this government, Prime Minister Tusk must tip the scales on Wednesday. A government reconstruction and programmatic offensive must mean a diametrical change in the way Poland is governed and politics is conducted. The government must restore hope for change and accountability for PiS's scandals to the voters. It must show that it is willing to fight the right for Poland and is not afraid of them.” -- THIS COULD BE TUSK'S LAST CHANCE TO PREVENT POLAND FROM FALLING INTO THE HANDS OF THE FAR-RIGHT IN TWO YEARS - JAŁOSZEWSKI FURTHER IN OKO: “Only in this way can the coalition restore faith in this government and hope for change. This could be Tusk's last chance to prevent Poland from falling into the hands of the far-right in two years. And to prevent PiS from having a constitutional majority, which would allow them to arrange the country as they please. This would mean the end of democracy as we know it. Because PiS wants to have full control over Poland and its citizens.” -- THIS SHOULD BE A GOVERNMENT OF FIGHTERS WHO WILL DELIVER PROMISES AND SO-CALLED KEY ISSUES. IT NEEDS MINISTERS LIKE SIENKIEWICZ AND KIERWIŃSKI - JAŁOSZEWSKI FURTHER WRITES IN OKO: “So, Tusk's government, after reconstruction, should be an answer to these challenges. It should rather be a government of fighters who will deliver promises and so-called key issues. At the same time, it should be a government ready for confrontation with the right and the opposition from PiS. Therefore, Tusk should rely on politicians like former culture minister Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz and former interior minister Marcin Kierwiński.” -- TUSK CANNOT COMPETE WITH BĄKIEWICZ, PIS, BRAUN, OR KONFEDERACJA - CLAIMS JAŁOSZEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “But right-wing populism has its limits. Tusk cannot compete with Bąkiewicz, PiS, Braun, or Konfederacja. Firstly, it only legitimizes and strengthens the right. And pushes us into an abyss of radicalism and hatred. Secondly, the government adopts an agenda imposed by the right. Thirdly, the government appears weak because by yielding to the right-wing narrative, it admits to a mistake or inaction. It becomes a hostage of the right.” https://oko.press/tusk-musi-wywrocic-stolik-i-przyspieszyc-potrzebuje-takich-ministrow-jak-sienkiewicz-i-kierwinski -- KACZYŃSKI, MENTZEN, AND BRAUN ARE NOT DOOMED TO WIN - LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA: “Nawrocki's 370,000-vote lead over Trzaskowski is not enough to speak of a structural advantage for the right. There is an electorate in Poland that can stop Kaczyński, Mentzen, and Braun. It simply needs to be mobilized.” -- TOO WEAK TO WIN, TOO STRONG TO FALL. ONLY AN ELECTORAL DEFEAT IN 2027 MAY BRING SOME SHIFT, EITHER IN THE CIVIC PLATFORM OR IN THEIR JOURNALISTIC-BUSINESS-EXPERT BACKING - JAŻDŻEWSKI FURTHER: “Today, it is increasingly common, even in media supporting Tusk, to openly discuss his weaknesses. The lost battle with PiS has undermined his main legitimacy for leadership. However, as long as a real new defender against PiS does not appear on the horizon, Tusk's hegemony is not threatened. The fear of a resurgence of right-wing rule does not go hand in hand with the ability to make necessary changes that would mean losing positions and influence, either within the Civic Platform or in their journalistic-business-expert backing. Too weak to win, too strong to fall. Only an electoral defeat in 2027 may bring about some shift here.” -- IF THE CURRENT DRIFT CONTINUES, IDEAS FOR A CHANGE OF PRIME MINISTER OR POLITICAL INITIATIVES MAY EMERGE - JAŻDŻEWSKI STILL: “Only in the autumn will it become clear whether Tusk has regained his vigor and whether he has any plan for the next two years of cohabitation, which could breathe, ironically, new hope into disappointed voters. If the current drift continues, ideas for a change of prime minister or political initiatives that could challenge the Civic Platform as the main anti-PiS force may emerge.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-czas-przegrupowania-kaczynski-mentzen-i-braun-wcale-nie-sa-s,nId,22167161 -- BIRTHDAYS: Małgorzata Gosiewska, Michał Dworczyk, Krzysztof Kubów, Krystyna Skowrońska, Michał Ogórek, Paweł Kowal.

Łukasz Mężyk