state of play: 07/16/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Kolanko: Government Believes This is Tusk's Last Reshuffle; Minister to Michalski: The Balloon of Expectations Has Been Inflated So Much, There Will Be a Huge Bang When Announced

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TUSK'S GOVERNMENT RECEIVES WORST RATINGS FROM VOTERS AGED 30-39 - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI: Over 50% of Poles assess Tusk's government negatively, with those aged 30-39 giving the worst ratings. Can this still be salvaged? To quote a classic: 'I don't have that impression.' https://x.com/LukasPawlowski/status/1945396559778119767 -- SAWICKI: COLLEAGUES FROM CIVIC PLATFORM, I ADVISE YOU WELL - CHANGE THE PRIME MINISTER NOW. THIS IS THE LAST CALL - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/16/ -- WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT AND CIVIC PLATFORM ITSELF, THE BELIEF IS GROWING STRONGER THAT THIS IS DONALD TUSK'S LAST RESHUFFLE. IN A YEAR'S TIME, THERE SHOULD BE A CHANGE OF HEAD OF GOVERNMENT – AS PREPARATION FOR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS - MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ. -- IT IS CALLED THE 'LAST TUSK RESHUFFLE' IN GOVERNMENT CIRCLES - FURTHERMORE, KOLANKO: 'Conversations with important politicians from Civic Platform and other coalition parties indicate that Donald Tusk himself is beginning to consider this scenario. Therefore, the current reshuffle is sometimes referred to as the 'last Tusk reshuffle' in government circles. Another reshuffle in 2026 would also include the Prime Minister, providing a new impetus and image refresh for the Sejm elections.' https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42700411-donald-tusk-premierem-jeszcze-tylko-przez-rok-w-po-mowi-sie-o-tym-wariancie -- THE BALLOON OF EXPECTATIONS HAS BEEN INFLATED SO MUCH, THAT NOW THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANG UPON ANNOUNCEMENT - ONE OF THE MINISTERS TO PATRYK MICHALSKI AT WP: 'Questions about government changes evoke irritation among government members. - I can't listen to this anymore, because the balloon of expectations has been inflated so much that now there will be a huge bang upon announcement. This is a postponed reshuffle that is constantly being talked about - admits one minister.' -- FROM TODAY'S PERSPECTIVE, IT IS CLEAR THAT OCCUPYING PUBLIC OPINION WITH THE RESHUFFLE WAS A WASTE OF TIME - ONE OF THE MINISTERS TO MICHALSKI AT OFF IN WP: 'From today's perspective, it is clear that occupying public opinion with the reshuffle was a waste of time. We have the last few weeks to shake ourselves off, because the current course may signal a crash into a wall - concludes one minister in an unofficial conversation.' https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/przenoszona-rekonstrukcja-odchudzanie-rzadu-bez-rewolucji-i-rozwiazania-problemow-7178595284998752a -- THE ACTIONS OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAVE BEEN TREATED BY PIS AS AN ALIBI ALLOWING FOR ANY RETALIATION AGAINST TUSK'S TEAM - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: 'The actions of the current government, which attempted to dismantle the institutional traps set by its predecessors, have been treated by PiS as an alibi, allowing for any retaliation against Tusk's team. There are many comments on social media that only Kaczyński, upon his return to power, will show the democratic camp how to settle scores. Voters of the October 15 coalition are driven to fury by the fact that such threats go unpunished, and Matecki can place a German flag on the Prime Minister's seat in the Sejm.' -- ILLIBERAL FORCES, MOVING TOWARDS AUTHORITARIANISM, APPEAR TO BE MORE EFFECTIVE, MORE UNITED, MORE IMPRESSIVE - FURTHERMORE, MARIUSZ JANICKI: 'One can withdraw from this conflict, not be interested, not vote, but this dispute will not disappear. Illiberal forces, moving towards authoritarianism, appear to be more effective, more united, more impressive. The right-wing narrative, especially the radical one, is simpler, with fewer doubts and intellectual considerations or variants.' -- KACZYŃSKI IS USING THE TRUMP WAVE TO COMPLETE HIS STRICTLY PERSONAL MISSION OF SETTLING ACCOUNTS WITH THE THIRD POLISH REPUBLIC, WHICH ONCE KICKED HIM OUT OF THE MAINSTREAM - JANICKI'S CONCLUSION: 'Kaczyński is using the Trump wave to complete his strictly personal mission of settling accounts with the Third Polish Republic, which once kicked him out of the mainstream. He wants an independent victory in 2027 so as not to share it with Mentzen or Braun, whom he surely deeply despises. Therefore, he is calling for mobilization so that PiS has over 40 percent in the elections. But if necessary, he will form a pact with Konfederacja and Korona, perhaps even on TV Trwam cameras, as he did in 2006 with Samoobrona and LPR.' -- KACZYŃSKI, ON THE ONE HAND, IS OFFICIALLY PRINCIPLED, AND ON THE OTHER HAND, INCREDIBLY PRAGMATIC, READY FOR ANY MORALLY QUESTIONABLE SOLUTION IF IT BRINGS HIS PARTY CLOSER TO GOVERNANCE - MARIUSZ JANICKI'S FINAL DIAGNOSIS: https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2307687,1,kaczynskiego-plan-zemsty-ma-trzy-czesci-gotowy-jest-na-moralnie-watpliwe-rozwiazania.read -- PAWŁOWICZ AND PIOTROWICZ WERE RIGHT - WRITES CONSTITUTIONALIST DR. KAMIL STĘPNIAK FOR GAZETA.PL: 'The Constitutional Tribunal ruled that the regulation introducing one hour of religion or ethics per week is inconsistent with the Constitution. Given that Bogdan Święczkowski, Krystyna Pawłowicz, and Stanisław Piotrowicz ruled on this, one could have bet on the outcome sight unseen. However, looking at it substantively, one cannot deny the correctness of the Constitutional Tribunal's decision.' https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114883,32104645,pawlowicz-i-piotrowicz-mieli-racje-nowacka-zachowala-sie-jak.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Lech Sołtys, Danuta Grabowska.

Łukasz Mężyk