state of play: 07/12/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Pełczyńska: Where are the so-called pro-democracy elites – embroiled in drama or focused on provincial Poland? Tusk on Iga or on himself? “She was already written off,” Chwedoruk: Is a prime ministerial swap inevitable?

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 80 YEARS AGO, THE AUGUSTÓW PURGE BEGAN. IT WAS THE LARGEST SOVIET CRIME AGAINST POLES AFTER WORLD WAR II: A forceful crackdown involved up to 40,000 soldiers from units of the 50th Army of the 3rd Belorussian Front and the 62nd Division of the NKVD Internal Troops. They were supported by two companies of the Polish army and the militia. https://wpolityce.pl/historia/734830-80-lat-temu-rozpoczela-sie-oblawa-augustowska -- SŁAWOMIR MENTZEN PUBLISHES HIS LIST OF CONVERSATION PARTNERS DURING THIS YEAR'S "BEER WITH MENTZEN": Kosiniak-Kamysz, Radosław Sikorski, Mateusz Morawiecki, Krzysztof Kwiatkowski, Przemysław Czarnek, Łukasz Litewka, Borys Budka, Zbigniew Bogucki, and Michał Dworczyk. https://x.com/SlawomirMentzen/status/1943952669762031745 -- IS DONALD TUSK TALKING ABOUT HIMSELF OR IDĄ ŚWIĄTEK? “Iga Świątek, written off by many just a few weeks ago (‘she’ll never amount to anything’), hated, insulted, now stands before a chance for her greatest success. Her story tells us more about ourselves than about tennis. And Iga has already won a match. A match more important than the Wimbledon final.” https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1943953585961939380 -- WHERE ARE THE SO-CALLED POLISH PRO-DEMOCRACY ELITES? THESE ELITES, INSTEAD OF FOCUSING ON WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT TODAY – INVESTMENTS, THE ECONOMY, HOUSING, POLISH TECHNOLOGIES – FIRST CREATED A DRAMA AROUND “ELECTION FRAUDS,” AND NOW THEY ARE SCORNING A COALITION PARTNER WHO, ALONG WITH PIS, DARED TO DEFEND THE INTERESTS OF PROVINCIAL POLAND – KATARZYNA PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ: “It’s better to look in the mirror – where are the so-called Polish pro-democracy elites? These elites, instead of focusing on what is most important today – investments, the economy, housing, Polish technologies – first created a drama around “election frauds,” and now they are lashing out at a coalition partner who, along with PiS, dared to defend the interests of provincial Poland. And it is precisely in this local Poland that people live who want housing, jobs, and better education. And they couldn’t care less whether they get this housing as a result of more or less “kosher” coalition votes. Bold change is needed. Befitting entirely new challenges and entirely new times.” https://x.com/Kpelczynska/status/1943682010645463245 -- HOŁOWNIA RECEIVED A “VERY CLEAR SUGGESTION” FROM TUSK TO POSTPONE THE DATE OF KAROL NAWROCKI'S PRESIDENTIAL OATH – MARCIN FIJOŁEK AND PIOTR WITWICKI IN INTERIA'S PODCAST: “Szymon Hołownia received a 'very clear suggestion' from Donald Tusk to postpone the date of Karol Nawrocki's presidential oath. However, the Marshal of the Sejm refused, which led to additional tension between the Prime Minister and the leader of Poland 2050 – we hear in Interia's podcast 'Polityczny WF' (Political PE Class). Moreover, Tusk reprimanded Minister Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, who belongs to Hołownia’s party, during a government session.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-holownia-postawil-sie-tuskowi-nie-mial-lepszego-momentu-by-z,nId,22164510 -- WITHIN THE COALITION, IT WAS ADMITTED THAT THE GOVERNMENT'S REACTION WAS DELAYED. BECAUSE THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS REACTED TO THE BORDER DEFENSE MOVEMENT PATROLS, NOT THAT THE MOVEMENT WENT TO THE BORDER AFTER GOVERNMENT DECISIONS – AGATA KONDZIŃSKA AND IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “Not everyone in the coalition liked this sharp rhetoric. They told us that it was unnecessary, that such statements wouldn't solve anything, and only fueled the right-wing. They admitted that the government's reaction was delayed. Because the Council of Ministers reacted to the Border Defense Movement patrols, not that the Movement went to the border after government decisions. - Then we could talk about them being militants – adds our interlocutor.” -- ANOTHER ACTOR WILL SOON ENTER THE GAME – PRESIDENT KAROL NAWROCKI, AND THE MOVEMENT IS ABOUT TO START PATROLS ON THE LUBNISSER SAALE AND ODER. A MOTORIZED PONTOON IS ALREADY IN USE – KONDZIŃSKA AND SZPALA AGAIN: “The referendum and the migration issue were the main themes of PiS's parliamentary campaign, and inciting anti-immigrant sentiments were meant to boost Kaczyński's party's points. Today, there's no indication that it will be any different. Quite the opposite. And soon, another actor will enter the game – President Karol Nawrocki. He has already announced that things will be safer after August 6. – The president is coming, who will secure Poland's borders – he stated. The Border Defense Movement is also not backing down. It reports that it will soon start patrols on the Lubnisser Saale and Oder. A motorized pontoon is already in use.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32093861,awantura-o-migrantow-szybko-nie-ucichnie-prawica-liczy-ze.html -- THE COALITION HAS WASTED ANOTHER WEEK – JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “A government preoccupied with itself stops paying attention to voters. Disputes over Szymon Hołownia's meeting with Jarosław Kaczyński, changing the Marshal of the Sejm, presidential elections, or government reconstruction serve no one but PiS and Konfederacja. The coalition has wasted another week.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42692011-jacek-nizinkiewicz-co-ma-kaczynski-czego-nie-ma-tusk-i-czy-ma-to-sikorski -- IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSUME THAT DONALD TUSK, A FIGURE MORE FROM HISTORY THAN THE PRESENT FOR TWENTY- OR EVEN THIRTY-YEAR-OLDS, WILL EFFECTIVELY INCREASE SUPPORT FOR PLATFORMA OR MORE BROADLY – FOR THE ENTIRE COALITION – PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN A CONVERSATION WITH DOMINIKA SITNICKA IN OKO.PRESS: “Younger generations of voters will play a key role in future elections, as shown in the second round of presidential elections; the older ones are relatively permanently divided. It is difficult to assume that Donald Tusk, a figure more from history than the present for twenty- or even thirty-year-olds, will effectively increase support for Platforma or more broadly – for the entire coalition.” -- SIKORSKI? THAT WOULD BE MORE OF A RETURN TO WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN – CHWEDORUK TELLS SITNICKA IN OKO: “Radosław Sikorski? That would be more of a return to what has already been. It is also difficult to say that he is a natural leader in today's reality – he is a politician strongly associated with the hard right of the 1990s, with the Olszewski government, and later with the PiS government. In an era of increasing secularization and generational change, I don't think he would be attractive to key segments of the electorate from younger age groups.” -- TUSK, IF HE WANTS TO SAVE HIS OWN REAL LEADERSHIP, WILL HAVE TO TAKE A STEP BACK – CHWEDORUK CONTINUES AT SITNICKA'S IN OKO: “Donald Tusk has adopted an inverse strategy – taking on all roles. As a result, everything this government does is associated with Donald Tusk. And Trzaskowski paid the price for that. Now Tusk, if he wants to save his own real leadership, will have to take a step back. This means stronger promotion of younger politicians and preparing for succession in the government.” -- THE MANEUVER OF SWAPPING THE PRIME MINISTER MAY PROVE INEVITABLE – CHWEDORUK FURTHER AT SITNICKA IN OKO: “Tusk's strategy is not entirely absurd and abstract. But to implement it, one cannot continue in the current form. The plebiscite against Donald Tusk has essentially not ceased in Polish politics. Although many years have passed since his previous governments, he still evokes resentment in a large part of society. For the youngest generation, on the other hand, he is a historical figure, like the heroes of October '56 for my generation. Completely abstract. The maneuver of swapping the prime minister may prove inevitable.” -- ABOVE ALL – FIND SOMEONE WHO WILL NOT JUST BE AN EXTENSION OF TUSK, BUT A NEW OPENING – CHWEDORUK FURTHER STATES IN OKO.PRESS: “But first, PO must create a program, set new lines of dispute – not only with PiS, but also with Konfederacja. And above all – find someone who will not just be an extension of Tusk, but a new opening. If nothing changes, Tusk may try a last maneuver: a single list and a return to the role of opposition leader. But that would already be a rescue plan, not a winning strategy.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32098847,koalicja-grzeznie-w-rekonstrukcji-tusk-zaostrza-przekaz-slubu.html -- HE IS SOMETIMES MENTIONED AS A POTENTIAL CANDIDATE FOR PRIME MINISTER OF A PIS-KONFEDERACJA GOVERNMENT. IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT IN THE FUTURE HE WILL COMPETE FOR LEADERSHIP IN THE UNITED RIGHT. SO HE IS TRYING TO FLEX HIS MUSCLES – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA ABOUT ANDRZEJ DUDA: “This can be seen as an attempt by the departing president to find his place in the new reality. He is sometimes mentioned as a potential candidate for prime minister of a PiS-Konfederacja government. It cannot be ruled out that in the future he will compete for leadership in the United Right. So he is trying to flex his muscles. Only that he is suddenly proving too radical even for Czarnek. But I sense a purely human instinct here too. Karol Nawrocki is praised on the right today for his straightforward radicalism of language, for 'yes, yes, no, no.' In my opinion, this is a radicalism justified by times of extreme, even wartime polarization, but at times excessive, and in matters concerning Russia and Ukraine – misguided. But Andrzej Duda must have envied him such a role. So with a stern face, he utters strong words. I would advise more caution in these maneuvers. Accelerated changes of one's own skin rarely end in success.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-to-byl-blad-panie-prezydencie,nId,22164366 -- 17 YEARS AGO, Prof. Bronisław Geremek died in a car accident in Lubień, Wielkopolska (JULY 13). -- BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Liroy-Marzec, Aleksandra Pawlicka, Michał Gostkiewicz, Łukasz Głombicki. SUNDAY: Sylwester Latkowski, Marian Banaś, Karol Działoszyński.

Łukasz Mężyk