state of play: 07/10/2025

POLITICAL GAME: Holland: Tusk is exhausted as a leader, Sierakowski: Tusk needs a miracle, something spectacular for the people to retain power, Major: Hołownia is right not to want to be PO's sidekick

Łukasz Mężyk

-- A YEAR AGO TUSK WAS ALSO ACCELERATING: "WE ARE FINISHING THE DISCUSSION, TIME FOR DECISIONS" - ON DECRIMINALIZATION OF ABORTION AND PARTNERSHIP ASSOCIATIONS: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/07/10/konczymy-dyskusje-czas-na-decyzje-tusk-o-depenalizacji-aborcji-i-zwiazkach-partnerskich/ -- THE REFORMED IN THE BIESZCZADY ARE FEEDING ALPACAS, THE PRESIDENT-ELECT IS WEARING A "MAKE POLAND GREAT AGAIN" CAP - SE: https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/lekkie/rzucili-wszystko-i-siedza-w-bieszczadach-nawroccy-karmia-alpaki-i-zrywaja-kwiatki-aa-oPT2-HZ8W-LqjP.html -- SIEMONIAK: A YEAR AGO I WAS IN GERMANY, THEN FOR THE FIRST TIME I CRITICIZED AND WARNED THAT POLAND MUST CONSIDER INTRODUCING CONTROLS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/10/ -- GOVERNMENT RECONSTRUCTION IS STARTING TO RESEMBLE A FARCE - KAMIL DZIUBKA ON ONET: “The postponement of the government reconstruction announced on Wednesday deepens the impression of chaos in the ruling camp. Even representatives of the coalition are starting to admit this, fearing that the ruling arrangement has lost control and no one is fully in charge of the situation anymore. Moreover, unofficial information suggests that the changes in the government will not be as deep as one might have expected. — People will kill themselves laughing at us — fears one important politician”. -- AMONG POLITICIANS OF THE RULING CAMP, HOWEVER, THE IMPRESSION OF CHAOS IS STARTING TO DOMINATE - DZIUBKA CONTINUES: “Some admit that the coalition has lost control, and the protracted talks about changes in the government only amplify this impression. Furthermore, unofficial information suggests that the changes in the government will not be as deep as one might have expected.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/rekonstrukcja-rzadu-zaczyna-przypominac-farse-zabija-nas-smiechem/ey24tgf,79cfc278 -- NO, IT WASN'T WORLD TRENDS THAT DECIDED, BUT THE LOSS OF FAITH THAT POLITICS MAKES SENSE, THAT DONALD TUSK'S AND RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI'S PARTY WOULD OFFER AN ALTERNATIVE TO CYNICISM AND POPULISM - AGNIESZKA HOLLAND IN CONVERSATION WITH PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “No, it wasn't world trends that decided, but the loss of faith that politics makes sense, that Donald Tusk's and Rafał Trzaskowski's party would offer an alternative to cynicism and populism. Well, there is no such alternative, there is huge disappointment. And why is that? Why is this entire formation of liberals, or whatever you call them, why are they so incompetent, why can't they grasp what is essential and manage it? I don't know. Of course, one can talk about the weak resources of the same figures, about fatal leaders, but the problem is broader, we have a deep crisis of liberal democracy, all over the world.” -- POLITICIANS OF THIS CAMP HAVE LOST THE ABILITY TO MANAGE REALITY. AND THEY HAVE LOST FAITH IN THEIR OWN STORY - HOLLAND CONTINUES AT PACEWICZ'S IN OKO: “Politicians of this camp have lost the ability to manage reality. And they have lost faith in their own story. And since they don't believe in their own narrative, it occurs to them that the solution is to take the narrative away from the right. Liberals do not listen to people, they do not have that antenna for fears that are real, that are somehow justified, because, you know, this world is becoming so difficult and complicated that it's hard not to be afraid.” -- I FEAR THAT TUSK HAS EXHAUSTED HIMSELF AS A LEADER - HOLLAND TELLS PACEWICZ: “I fear that Donald Tusk has exhausted himself as a leader. His motivation has always been to win, he is a sportsman type, and he won in great style in 2023. But he didn't win the way he wanted and had to straddle the fence because he has a coalition of four parties ranging from A to Z. A fragile construction, as evidenced by the outrageous meetings after Szymon Hołownia's night with Adam Bielan and Jarosław Kaczyński.” -- THE ONLY THING THAT COULD STILL SAVE THE LIBERAL GOVERNMENT AND GIVE A NEW BEGINNING IS TUSK'S DEPARTURE FROM THE GOVERNMENT - HOLLAND CONTINUES AT PACEWICZ'S IN OKO.PRESS: “These are banalities, I don't even feel like talking about them anymore. Tusk himself was interesting as long as events were dynamic and promising for the future, and now you only see fear of defeat and awkward management of the coalition's bankruptcy mass. In my opinion, the only thing that could still save the liberal government and give a new beginning is Tusk's departure from the government, because with a prime minister in such a disposition and under such fire, the government will not achieve much. Tusk could do what Kaczyński did after winning the elections in 2015 and 2019. That is, hide in the background and take care of the party, which no one else can handle, and allow someone else to become prime minister. And a real prime minister, not a figurehead. As we well know, there are not many candidates, or almost none.” -- I AM WAITING FOR A NEW POLITICAL RELIGION AND ITS PROPHET, WHICH WILL BE ON THE SIDE OF LIGHT, BECAUSE FOR NOW WE ARE ON THE SIDE OF DARKNESS - HOLLAND STILL AT PACEWICZ'S: “I am waiting for a new political religion and its prophet, which will be on the side of light, because for now we are on the side of darkness. Times of contempt are returning in the USA, in Poland. It is so easy to arouse contempt towards people who are racially, ethnically, LGBT. The change in attitudes towards refugees from Ukraine, helped by Rafał Trzaskowski, shows that contempt knows no bounds today. They are advancing like a storm, look at Trump, the change of regime in the USA is progressing rapidly. He is already saying that perhaps there will be no elections in 2028, or that he will run for a third term, or that his son will be president. It seems that Americans have become paralyzed.” -- NAWROCKI WILL NOT BE A WIMP LIKE DUDA, BUT HE WILL FIGHT AND STRIKE, HE HAS BEEN GIVEN TOOLS AND HE WILL USE THEM - AGNIESZKA HOLLAND STILL TELLS PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “And Nawrocki himself is a mix of Konfederacja and PiS, a staunch nationalist and Catholic, which should not be confused with Christianity, and moreover, he is a boxer, he will not be a wimp like Duda, but he will fight and strike, he has been given tools and he will use them. A type like J.D. Vance.” https://oko.press/agnieszka-holland-tusk-wyczerpal-sie-nowy-prorok-na-czasy-potworow -- THE OLD SYSTEM IS CRUMBLING TOO CLEARLY TO REMAIN IN ITS CURRENT FORM - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The old system is crumbling too clearly to remain in its current form. And how this new division will evolve later is another matter. Today, a temporary compromise with part of the old order, i.e., a PiS-Konfederacja coalition after the next elections, and a Razem with Lewica coalition, but rather on Razem's terms, seems most likely.” -- TUSK NEEDS A MIRACLE, SOMETHING SPECTACULAR FOR THE PEOPLE, TO RETAIN POWER - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI CONTINUES AT KALUKIN'S: “The debate over the vote of confidence looked like an endgame. When I hear politicians talking about problems communicating their achievements, I already know it will be bad. So, while two years ago one could still delude oneself that the old duopoly could make one more turn, today it would probably be self-deception. Tusk needs a miracle, something spectacular for the people, to retain power. Besides, he cannot rely on himself alone, because it is not KO that is weakening, but its appendages. Their complete absorption would also have to be another political miracle. Another matter is that Tusk is a seasoned politician and has won more than one thing. However, social trends are against him today, but also against Kaczyński.” -- THEY SPEAK AN UNINTELLIGIBLE LANGUAGE, COMMUNICATE THROUGH ARCHAIC CHANNELS, AND EVEN WHEN THEY TRY TO USE MODERN ONES, THEY DO IT POORLY - PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA IN CONVERSATION WITH KALUKIN IN POLITYKA: “All divisions tend to burn out. The previous post-communist division lasted for a decade and a half, and although it was rational, people eventually got tired of it. New cohorts entered who did not personally experience martial law. The current division has lasted even longer, and remember that Tusk and Kaczyński, who personify it, have been active in politics since the turn of '89. For younger voters, they are dinosaurs from the old era who have somehow survived to our times. They speak an unintelligible language, communicate through archaic channels, and even when they try to use modern ones, they do it poorly.” -- NEW DUOPOLY. INSTEAD OF KO VS PIS, IT WILL BE KONFEDERACJA VS RAZEM - PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA AND SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI, AUTHORS OF THE REPORT "NEW DUOPOLY WILL OVERTHROW THIS SYSTEM" IN GW: “Kaczyński's and Tusk's downfall has been predicted many times and has not happened yet, but if not in the upcoming parliamentary elections, then in the subsequent ones, neither of them will be the main players in Polish politics anymore. (...) Konfederacja will play for a comprehensive critique and disintegration of the government. Razem of Zandberg will do the same. (...) The next elections may give power to a PiS coalition with the new right. But it is equally possible that the new right may leave PiS high and dry – let them form a government, but a minority one, whose problems will strengthen Konfederacja and give it dominance in subsequent elections. Analogously, Razem will capitalize on the old duopoly's defeat. And so, in one or two cycles, Konfederacja will be in power, and Razem will gather left-wing voters around it and fight for the role of one of the main opposition parties.” -- NAWROCKI HAS BECOME A SYMBOL OF POPULAR OPPOSITION TO THE ELITES - PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA AND SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI IN GW: “The revelation of compromising facts from the PiS candidate's past caused shame among voters, rather than discouraging them. Nawrocki became a symbol of popular opposition to the elites, and the scandals only confirmed his 'authenticity' as a man outside the establishment.” -- THE NEW RIGHT IS PRIMARILY YOUNG, EDUCATED MEN FROM CITIES - PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA AND SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI STILL IN GW: “This is not youth from the periphery or economically excluded – this is a group that theoretically should form the core of the liberal-democratic center, but has chosen radical right-wing populism.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32085905,trend-we-wszystkich-elektoratach-jest-jasny-najdalej-za-szesc.html -- A PIS GOVERNMENT WITH HOŁOWNIA IS BETTER THAN WITH KONFEDERACJA - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR ON POLITICAL CRITIQUE: “The funniest (or most tragic) thing is that from the perspective of the state's functioning, it might be worth rooting for Hołownia and Kosiniak to come to an agreement with Kaczyński. If Kaczyński is truly going for a win, it is better for his coalition partner to be the moderately right-wing Poland 2050 than the radical Konfederacja.” -- DESPITE MEDIA HYSTERIA, HE STILL WANTS TO BE A TRUE "THIRD WAY," NOT JUST PLATFORM BIS” - MAJOR CONTINUES: “Despite media hysteria, the game played by Hołownia makes sense. The leader of Poland 2050 is not only pushing his way into the coalition and threatening Tusk with overthrowing his government, but also showing voters that he still wants to be a true 'third way,' not just a Platforma Bis.” Hołownia has finally understood that the closer he is to Tusk, the closer he is to political death.” -- HOŁOWNIA HAS FINALLY UNDERSTOOD THAT THE CLOSER HE IS TO TUSK, THE CLOSER HE IS TO POLITICAL DEATH - MAJOR CONTINUES IN KP: “Hołownia has finally understood that the closer he is to Tusk, the closer he is to political death, so during the presidential campaign, he began his charge, including by torpedoing the debate in Końskie. This, at times, desperate attempt may have saved him from the embarrassment of falling below 4% and gave him a glimmer of hope for saving the entire project, which is possible only by detaching himself from Donald Tusk – whether symbolically or realistically.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/galopujacy-major-lepszy-rzad-pis-z-holownia-niz-konfederacja/ -- 33RD ANNIVERSARY OF HANNA SUCHOCKA'S APPOINTMENT AS THE FIRST POLISH WOMAN TO THE POSITION OF PRIME MINISTER. -- THE FORMER PRIME MINISTER ON THE BACKSTAGE OF HER ELECTION AS PRIME MINISTER – WHO RULES US WITH HANNA SUCHOCKA ON WIRTUALNA POLSKA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yL0RSDcQzFQ -- THE POLITICAL 90S IN A NUTSHELL IN INTERIA PHOTOS FROM SUCHOCKA'S PREMIERSHIP: https://nowahistoria.interia.pl/historia-na-fotografii/hanna-suchocka-pierwsza-w-polsce-kobieta-premier-zdjecie,iId,1524889,iAId,121830 -- BIRTHDAYS: Aleksandra Dulkiewicz (46), Michał Wilgocki, Władysław Dajczak, Ludwik Kotecki, Killion Munyama, Lucjan Karasiewicz.

Łukasz Mężyk