Do not dismiss Hołownia. If Tusk does not elevate the government by autumn, Hołownia, outside of the administration, may gain attractiveness for the centrist electorate. Although, ultimately, the rescue for the center might still be… Trzaskowski. He lost elections twice? So what? "Times have changed" and politics is being rewritten. No one else on the liberal side has established such a comparable emotional bond with their voters so far. Seen from Orbit: The Civic Platform is losing its most modern Nimitz-class aircraft carrier (ORP Trzaskowski) from the front lines – at least for a while. It has two left: one – much older generation, yet perceptibly nearing retirement, but with powerful armament (Tusk), and one newer, more agile, but carrying weaker class aircraft (Sikorski). The ruling coalition possesses no more aircraft carriers, because in these wars, politicians who can single-handedly fill large halls or city squares are the aircraft carriers. In this logic, Hołownia and Kosiniak are smaller destroyers (though they could have been cruisers). The Civic Platform still has several destroyers, but they too have been damaged in recent clashes (Nitras, Nowacka, Tomczyk, Pomaska), and the coalition partners' destroyers have not yet been fully deployed to sail beyond the pools of Wiertnicza and Ostrobramska. The opposition paradoxically possesses a stronger and more modern fleet. In the main right-wing army, there is the veteran aircraft carrier ORP Kaczyński, but despite its years of service, it is enhanced with new technology. The aircraft carrier ORP Duda still sails in good condition, and ORP “Nawrocky” has just been introduced – experimentally, in a way – but has passed the toughest combat tests. It also has several cruisers, the likes of which the government side does not have – Morawiecki, Czarnek, Szydło. Good destroyers: Brudziński, Szefernaker, Jaki. Agile frigates: Śliwka, Kaleta, Kanthak, Tarczyński, Muller, and despite everything, Dworczyk, Jabłoński, Fogiel, Horała, Andruszkiewicz... The Confederation has two new, highly efficient aircraft carriers: Mentzen and Bosak, and good, new destroyers: Bryłka and Hernik, and frigates: Wawer, Płaczek, Berkowicz, Wipler. These are all people listened to with interest even by those with different views. The Crown possesses the cruiser ORP Braun and – allied – the old destroyer – now only for electronic warfare – ORP Mikke. The anti-government left from Razem launches attacks with more than sufficient efficiency, possessing quite a capable fleet: Danish cruiser Zandberg, destroyers: Zawisza, Konieczny. Zoom on the Civic Platform: Contrary to what the Prime Minister claimed in his post-election address, it is difficult to say that the Civic Platform had a strong plan. The parliamentary vote of confidence – by the way, which requires a simple majority, not a qualified one – has been used many times by the ruling PiS to de-escalate tensions: once by Szydło and twice by Morawiecki: in 2018 and 2020 during Duda's campaign. Tusk himself also resorted to it twice in the previous decade. Let's assume Karolina Lewicka is right and Tusk decides to marginalize Trzaskowski's circle. https://x.com/Piotr57663004/status/1931056028801708274 Let's then imagine the next conventions, etc. – who, apart from Tusk and Sikorski, would be there to perform and captivate the liberal center voters? With all due respect: Maciej Berek, Marshal Wielichowska, Minister Siemoniak, MEP Budka, and Arkadiusz Myrcha? In the same podcast, Wojciech Szacki says that a "brawl" almost broke out at the meeting of coalition leaders. How is such a government supposed to correct its course and then soar? Let's assume that for the coalition, the KPO (EU Recovery Fund) could be a cushion like the initial 500+ was for PiS. But it won't be: due to the fragmented nature of the fund, whose resources are channeled into small investments. Even if it strengthens, which it likely must, economic growth, PiS has accustomed people to growth, and they think the Polish economy is simply growing because that's just how it is. Other important, but still not outweighing, minor repairs: IVF refunds, grandmother's benefit, reintroducing the child helpline, however, they do not create a critical mass in the symbolic sphere of politics with the weight of 500+. Paradoxical Reaction: The Civic Platform has opened its voters to Confederation's maneuvers. The Toruń operation in Mentzen's tavern, intended to break into the Confederation's electorate, instead of the expected outcome, produced a reaction well-known in medicine as paradoxical – it pulled the Confederation out from behind the sanitary cordon and normalized it in the eyes of the centrist electorate. In the European Parliament, factions involving the Confederation are behind a sanitary cordon, and Weber does not talk to them, while in Poland, the Civic Platform is drinking beer with them. ***** -- STATE OF PLAY: -- DONALD TUSK'S COALITION GOVERNMENT HAS PRIMARILY HARMED TRZASKOWSKI – JERZY BACZYŃSKI AND MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Donald Tusk's coalition government has primarily harmed Trzaskowski, which within a dozen or so months has achieved a similar level of public disapproval in polls as the two-week Morawiecki government had after the October elections.” -- INACTIVITY, POOR PERSONNEL, LACK OF MAJOR PROJECTS AND ANY NEW, SIGNIFICANT NARRATIVE, COALITION SKIRMISHES, AND A COMPLETELY UNUSED PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION HAVE CAUSED GROWING DISAPPOINTMENT – FURTHERMORE BY BACZYŃSKI AND JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Inactivity, poor personnel, lack of major projects and any new, significant narrative, coalition skirmishes, and a completely unused Presidency of the Council of the European Union have caused growing disappointment, and ultimately, deep irritation. On top of that, hopeless social communication and the neglect of media prevented the proper resonance of the few achievements that did occur. This required democratic voters to rise above the campaign and their own assessment of the government's previous achievements. Many clenched their teeth and voted, but it wasn't enough. In a year and a half, they managed to squander the enormous capital of emotions and hopes that this coalition received from Poles on October 15, 2023, when 13 million voters cast their ballots for it.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2302701,1,wasz-prezydent-nasz-premier-20.read -- RESEARCH SHOWS FOR THE PEASANTS THAT THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THIS GROUP IS DISSATISFACTION WITH THEIR OWN MATERIAL SITUATION AND THE GOVERNMENT IN GENERAL – DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Research shows for the Peasants that the primary factor in this group is dissatisfaction with their own material situation and the government in general. Additionally, a portion of the Third Way electorate dislikes Donald Tusk, is not a big fan of a strongly progressive narrative, and situates itself slightly to the right of the center. In 2023, they simultaneously wanted to remove PiS from power and did not want a PiS-Confederation coalition – which is why the Third Way was the optimal choice for this group.” -- FROM THE OUTSET, PIS TARGETED THE CONFEDERATION'S ELECTORATE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, CHOOSING ITS CANDIDATE AND PROFILING HIS CAMPAIGN ACCORDINGLY – FURTHERMORE BY WIELOWIEYSKA: “From the outset, PiS targeted the Confederation's electorate in the presidential elections, choosing its candidate and profiling his campaign accordingly. Today, the campaign headquarters considers it a success that over a million voters from the ruling coalition were demobilized, believing that if Jarosław Kaczyński had put forward Mateusz Morawiecki or Przemysław Czarnek, such an option would have drawn these people out of their homes. Nawrocki had nothing to do with the government, but he had a suitable biography, allowing him to be portrayed as someone who came from the lower rungs of society and achieved everything himself, gaining education and a doctorate.” -- THE PRIME MINISTER APPEARED AS A LOST AND DESPERATE MAN – FURTHERMORE BY WIELOWIEYSKA: “However, while Tusk's speech at Trzaskowski's large march on Sunday between rounds was very good, his last two interviews on TVN24 and Polsat were a failure. The Prime Minister appeared as a lost and desperate man, which is not surprising, as internal polls from the Civic Coalition headquarters already showed that Nawrocki was winning by a small majority of votes.” -- COULD ANYTHING HAVE FORETOLD THE CATASTROPHE? YES, THE POOR RATINGS OF THE GOVERNMENT ITSELF – YET AGAIN BY WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Could anything have foretold the catastrophe? Yes, the poor ratings of the government itself, which were at the level of the worst moments of the Morawiecki cabinet. However, it was assumed that the sources of these sentiments were very diverse, and ultimately, the voters from 2023 would give Trzaskowski a mandate.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31997955,wielowieyska-nawrocki-chce-odwetu-na-poczatek-na-jednej-osobie.html -- ANGER IN THE CIVIC PLATFORM OVER SZYMON HOŁOWNIA'S DECLARATIONS – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “There is anger in the Civic Platform towards Szymon Hołownia because he is in the coalition and criticizes it at the same time, as if he were an external reviewer. And the Marshal of the Sejm is very sensitive to how PO politicians – usually anonymously – attack him in the media.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/w-po-wscieklosc-na-szymona-holownie-zarzut-jego-dzialania-to-woda-na-mlyn-pis/x3j4q5s,452ad802 -- WHY DID TRZASKOWSKI LOSE? TUSK MADE THREE FUNDAMENTAL MISTAKES – ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN NEWSWEEK: “Tusk's most significant fault, however, is omission. For a year and a half, the government failed to fulfill most of its promises, mainly due to quarrels among coalition partners and the difficult budgetary situation. In addition, there was a lack of informational policy – the prime minister did not want a spokesperson, as he is convinced that he communicates best with the electorate himself. In the end, fewer voters turned out for the presidential elections than during the parliamentary vote in 2023. Those who had removed PiS from power remained at home – the supporters of the current coalition.” -- PERHAPS HE HAS TRULY LOST SOCIAL EMPATHY PERMANENTLY – FURTHERMORE BY STANKIEWICZ: “If Tusk truly – as he tells his people and coalition leaders – sees no need for fundamental changes in the composition and agenda of the government, then perhaps he has permanently lost social empathy. And this bodes very ill for the government, the coalition, the Civic Platform, and himself. Not to mention the anti-PiS voters.” https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/dlaczego-rafal-trzaskowski-przegral-wybory-donald-tusk-popelnil-trzy-bledy/ -- TUSK SIMPLY FAILED – RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Tusk simply failed. His course of settling accounts with the PiS government was justified by institutional and political logic within the old polarization scheme. However, he was unable to address the material anxieties, the sense of lack of prospects for the younger generation, especially the housing crisis. He underestimated its emerging agency and the associated symbolic needs. But it is not only Tusk's fault; virtually the entire liberal side overslept the change. A spectacular example of this was, of course, Końskie, which – once again – was conceived by Trzaskowski's campaign to solidify the old division. Whoever came up with the idea of involving TVP in this, as if it weren't enough to stick to commercial stations, deserves a medal.” -- THE GAP BETWEEN THE OLD POLES, WITH MENTZEN AND STANOWSKI AS THE MAIN LEADERS OF THE THIRD FORCE – FURTHERMORE BY KALUKIN: “Because if anything is truly widening today, it is the gap between the old poles, with Mentzen and Stanowski as the main leaders of the third force. From a safe distance, they will now comment on the political chaos, reaping benefits for themselves. And if not these two, then someone similar to them, which amounts to the same thing, because it's not about specific names and labels here, but about the general model of new politics and new media. This is something much more than Kukiz's anti-political crusade or Hołownia's electoral talent show, which never gained a lasting social base. A generational revolution has kicked off in Polish politics, and from now on, nothing will be the same.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2302723,1,a-wiec-nawrocki-co-teraz-tusk-po-klesce-nogi-nie-odstawi-czasy-wielkiego-pis-zapewne-juz-nie-wroca.read -- TODAY MARKS THE SIXTH ANNIVERSARY OF ANDRZEJ GODLEWSKI'S DEATH. -- THIS IS ALSO THE ANNIVERSARY OF A REFERENDUM: -- 22 YEARS AGO, a two-day European referendum concluded. Voter turnout was 58.85%, and 77.45% of those voting were in favor of Poland joining the European Union. Opponents included the League of Polish Families of Roman Giertych, the Real Politics Union, and Samoobrona Rzeczpospolitej Polskiej. -- BIRTHDAYS: Robert Tyszkiewicz, Lidia Staroń, Jan Rzymełka, Wojciech Lamentowicz. SUNDAY: Norman Davies, Arkadiusz Franas.