state of play: 06/04/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Jałozewski on Tusk: Not in Form. He Takes Long to Gather Thoughts Before Speaking. It's Not the Same Tusk. Fact: The MEJKER's Boss
-- The MEJKER's Boss - A Fact about Szefernaker.
-- BRYLKA: NAWROCKI MUST COUNT ON VERY STRONG BLACKMAIL FROM THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION. THIS IS NOT THE PRESIDENT WE EXPECTED - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/06/04
-- THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT'S SHOCKING LACK OF EFFECTIVENESS AND THE ABSENCE OF AN AMBITIOUS VISION FOR POLAND'S DEVELOPMENT - MARIUSZ JAŁOSZEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Rafał Trzaskowski was less than 185,000 votes short of winning the presidential election. He lost for many reasons, big and small. But the most important is the current government's shocking lack of effectiveness and the absence of an ambitious vision for Poland's development”.
-- TRADITIONAL MEDIA ARE LOSING IMPORTANCE - JAŁOSZEWSKI CONTINUES IN OKO: “Trzaskowski's campaign team probably forgot that traditional media are losing importance. That PiS lost in 2023, even though they had the political TVP in their hands”.
-- PIS'S PROMISES MAY HAVE SOUNDED MORE BELIEVABLE BECAUSE PIS SHOWED OVER 8 YEARS THAT THEY DELIVER ON PROMISES - MARIUSZ JAŁOSZEWSKI WRITES FURTHER IN OKO: “One could have played on the promise of revitalizing healthcare. Offer something for rural residents or pensioners. The latter, after all, divided their votes half and half. Nawrocki made firm promises. He promised to lead the construction of a nuclear power plant and the CPK. He also promised Kaczyński they would build affordable housing. Even though they are not in power. PiS's promise may have sounded more credible because PiS showed over 8 years that they deliver on promises”.
-- TUSK'S ENGAGEMENT IN THE FINAL STRETCH WAS ALSO A MISTAKE. THE PRIME MINISTER PERFORMED FATALLY. HE WAS SHAKEN, EMOTIONAL, DID NOT SPEAK LIKE A STATESMAN AND LEADER OF THE COUNTRY, BUT RATHER LIKE A FRIGHTENED CITIZEN - CLAIMS JAŁOSZEWSKI IN OKO: “Tusk's engagement in the final stretch was also a mistake. The interview that Tusk gave to Bogdan Rymanowski on Polsat six days before the election did not help. Tusk spoke with great concern about the threat that Nawrocki's election posed to the state due to his past. The Prime Minister performed fatally. He was shaken, emotional, did not speak like a statesman and leader of the country, but rather like a frightened citizen. He cited unconfirmed revelations from a certain Muranski, a freak fight competitor. He made him an authority”.
-- DONALD TUSK HAS NOT BEEN IN FORM IN RECENT MONTHS. HE TAKES A LONG TIME TO GATHER HIS THOUGHTS BEFORE SAYING ANYTHING. IT'S NOT THE SAME TUSK - JAŁOSZEWSKI AGAIN: “Donald Tusk has not been in form in recent months. He takes a long time to gather his thoughts before saying anything. It's not the same Tusk, full of energy and self-confidence. He appears lost”.
-- THE POLITICIANS OF THE DEMOCRATIC CAMP WHO REMOVED PIS FROM POWER IN 2023 ALSO TURNED OUT TO BE FOOLISH. THEY RECEIVED AN HUGE MANDATE OF TRUST FROM THE MAJORITY OF SOCIETY. AND THEY MANAGED TO SQUANDER THIS SUPPORT IN A YEAR AND A HALF - JAŁOSZEWSKI'S CONCLUSION IN OKO: “Marcin Król, an opposition activist in the Polish People's Republic, a philosopher and historian, published a famous book in 2015 during PiS's rule about how the opposition took power after the fall of the Polish People's Republic. He admitted that the opposition leaders got lost in a liberal view of the world. 'We were foolish' – he titled the book. The politicians of the democratic camp who removed PiS from power in 2023 also turned out to be foolish. They received a huge mandate of trust from the majority of society, which defended democracy. And they managed to squander this support in a year and a half. PiS did not have to try too hard”.
https://oko.press/list-do-koalicji-byliscie-glupi-trzaskowski-mogl-wygrac-nie-powiedzieliscie-po-co-jest-polska
-- I HAVE NEVER HEARD AS MANY TIMES AS ON THE POST-ELECTION MONDAY THAT "THE BOSS IS DONE" - DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN Onet: “Dominika Długosz notes that although she has been observing Donald Tusk's politics for a long time, she has never heard as many times as on the post-election Monday that 'the boss is done.' — Everyone wants to force something out of him right now, but these are child's games because Tusk cannot govern without them, but they also cannot govern without Tusk”.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/stan-wyjatkowy-powyborcze-trzesienie-ziemi-w-pis-wiara-w-powrot-do-wladzy/vffye76,79cfc278
-- THERE IS NO ANSWER YET TO THE "VICTORY ALGORITHM" DEVELOPED BY PIS - BOLESŁAW BRECZKO IN GW ON THE RES FUTURA REPORT: “In the summary of the analysis, we read that there is currently no effective counter-structure to the 'victory algorithm' developed by PiS. Centrist-liberal political forces are unable to compete with the right, which appeals to basic emotions of threat. 'What once constituted the strength of liberalism – openness, complexity, universalism – has today become its barrier in a reduced information space' – the analysis reads”.
-- THE HEAD OF RES FUTURA EXPLAINS THAT VIEWERS OF KANAŁ ZERO FEEL THEY ARE PART OF A PROCESS WHERE INFORMATION AND STORIES ARE CREATED. THEY ARE NOT MERELY PASSIVE RECIPIENTS - BRECZKO CONTINUES IN GW: “- The way news is presented, conversations with guests, and the building of Kanał Zero's authority are different from classical media – says the expert. — Today, viewers or readers are not looking for a moral authority who will explain to them how the world works and what they should think. No, they want to discover the world themselves, they want to be alone with a politician, they don't want someone to immediately tell them how a problem should be solved, but they want someone to be angry about that problem with them. Media are not meant to be oracles creating opinions, they are meant to assist in the cognitive process. The head of Res Futura explains that viewers of Kanał Zero feel they are part of a process where information and stories are created. They are not merely passive recipients of content prepared by others”.
-- RES FUTURA EXPERTS ARGUE THAT NAWROCKI'S CAMPAIGN TEAM HAS SET A NEW STANDARD FOR POLITICAL OPERATIONS IN THE DIGITAL SPACE - BRECZKO STILL IN GW: “Res Futura experts argue that Nawrocki's campaign team has set a new standard for political operations in the digital space, where postulates, programs, and factual arguments are irrelevant. The most important role is played by narrative, emotionally convincing the potential voter to one's vision, surrounding them with channels in such a way that the opposing side has no access to them, and strategically tailoring the message to different communication channels”.
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177150,31993794,pierwsze-takie-wybory-w-historii-na-opracowany-przez-pis-algorytm.html
-- THE GERMAN SCENARIO WILL COME INTO PLAY THERE, WHERE SOCIALISTS, CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS, AND GREENS STARTED LOSING SUPPORT IN THEIR ELECTORATES, AND EACH STARTED PULLING IN THEIR OWN DIRECTION. IT WILL BE THE SAME HERE - A PIS POLITICIAN QUOTED BY AGATA KONDZIŃSKA AND IWONA SZPAŁA IN GW: “PiS politicians we spoke with speculate that moods within the coalition will worsen. — The German scenario will come into play there, where socialists, Christian democrats, and greens started losing support in their electorates, and each started pulling in their own direction. It will be the same here. PSL will lean right, the left will demand its due, the liberals will raise their heads, and everyone will accuse Tusk – speculates a PiS politician”.
-- HOŁOWNIA'S POLITICIANS SAY THAT DONALD TUSK IS MAINLY RESPONSIBLE FOR TRZASKOWSKI'S DEFEAT - KONDZIŃSKA AND SZPAŁA CONTINUE IN GW: “— An empty gesture – one of our interlocutors comments on the idea of a vote of no confidence. — The Prime Minister wants to show that he controls the situation. And incidentally, to force us into co-responsibility for Trzaskowski's defeat. We are to take the blame and criticism for someone else's failure. In Poland 2050, it is also heard that Tusk's tried-and-tested strategy, which relies solely on clashing with Kaczyński, is a mistake. They argue that this has been happening since the 2023 elections, and as a result, PiS has its president”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31994914,krajobraz-po-wyborczej-bitwie-papier.html
-- BY VOTING FOR KAROL NAWROCKI, I VOTED FOR A POLAND THAT WILL DECIDE ITS OWN AFFAIRS AND PURSUE POLISH INTERESTS, NOT IMPLEMENT THE DIRECTIVES OF EUROCRATS FROM BRUSSELS - SAYS KAROLINA IN A GAZETA.PL ARTICLE: — By voting for Karol Nawrocki, I voted for a Poland that will decide its own country's affairs and pursue Polish interests, not implement the directives of eurocrats from Brussels – says Karolina”.
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,143907,31995931,mam-35-lat-i-powiem-wam-dlaczego-glosowalam-na-nawrockiego.html
-- 36TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE JUNE 4TH ELECTIONS AND THE 33RD ANNIVERSARY OF THE "NIGHT CHANGE".
-- PRESIDENT KOMOROWSKI TURNS 73.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Bronisław Komorowski, Franciszek Jerzy Stefaniuk, Radosław Witkowski, Iwona Arent.
live
5 hours
6 min
Jaki: A Motion Based on the Hypothesis That Ziobro Benefited from Caring for the Common Good
19 min
„Stalinists, then Communists, operated in exactly the same way.” — Jaki on accusations against Ziobro
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How Will PSL MPs Vote on the Sejm Marshal Position for Czarzasty? Zgorzelski Responds
34 min
„They Came for Two Weeks, Pulled a Swindle, and Then Tried to Pin It on Smolarz” — Zgorzelski Criticizes PiS and Praises KOWR Head
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„Let's See What Kind of Powerhouse You Are” — Zgorzelski to Ziobro Before Parliamentary Committee Meeting
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Müller: ETS2 Should Be Abolished, Not Postponed
3 hours
Müller Denies Morawiecki as Prime Minister Could Have Known About CPK Land Plot
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„Receipts on the table. So far, I haven’t seen a document signed by Telus.” — Müller to the Prime Minister and Government Spokesperson
5 hours
„The Conclusions Will Be Used in the President’s Chancellery’s Work.” — Szefernaker on Today’s Expert Meeting
state of play
STATE OF PLAY: PiS Suffers Spectacular Setback, Baranowska: PiS Lacks a Plan to Exit Defensive Stance, Janicki: Has Tusk's Camp's Depression Passed? The Game is Back On
state of play
today
State of Play: GW and RMF on Cancelled Surgeries, Helsinki Foundation on Żurek's Project: Little in Common with Rule of Law, Szułdrzyński: Konfederacja Benefits from "PiS-PO One Evil"
state of play
yesterday
STATE OF PLAY: Prof. Flis on Gruszczyński: The Beneficiaries of Reckonings Aren't the Government, but Braun and Konfederacja. Duma: Campaign Themes No Longer Resonate, Res Futura: 58% Online Support Rymanowski
state of play
11/03/2025
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state of play
10/31/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Politico on the New Wave of Ukrainian Refugees in Poland and Germany, Machowski: Many Coalition Lists Will Hand Power to the Right
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10/30/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Danielewski: Speculation about a potential prime ministerial change can be put down to fairy tales, Majmurek: The Platform showed its worst side… and PiS wasn’t any better
state of play
10/29/2025