state of play: 06/02/2025

STATE OF PLAY: KN

Łukasz Mężyk

-- KN WILL BE THE 4TH PRESIDENT DESIGNATED BY JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI. -- FINAL RESULTS FROM THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION (PKW): Karol Nawrocki 50.89% (10,606,628 votes) Rafał Trzaskowski 49.11% (10,237,177 votes) -- Wałęsa 1990: 10,622,696 votes Nawrocki 2025: 10,606,877 Duda 2020: 10,440,648 Kwaśniewski 1995: 9,704,439 Kwaśniewski 2000: 9,485,224 Komorowski 2010: 8,933,887 Duda 2015: 8,630,627 Kaczyński 2005: 8,257,468 -- IN THE LAST PRE-ELECTION POLL FOR WP, OGB WAS THE ONLY ONE TO ACCURATELY PREDICT THE ELECTION RESULT: https://x.com/LukasPawlowski/status/1929297463203991730 -- BRUSSELS HAS ACKNOWLEDGED DEFEAT. VON DER LEYEN CONGRATULATED KN: https://x.com/vonderleyen/status/1929419841800171933 -- KASIA NAWROCKA AT THE ELECTION NIGHT EVENT: https://x.com/PiotrSemka/status/1929352138917876014 -- SOLDIERS VOTED FOR NAWROCKI: https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2025-06-02/zwyciestwo-w-kosowie-i-na-podlasiu-tak-glosowali-zolnierze/ -- BOSAK: EARLY ELECTIONS ARE UNLIKELY NOW, POSSIBLE IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2026 OR EARLY 2027. SZEFERNAKER: EITHER THEY WILL COOPERATE WITH NAWROCKI, OR THIS GOVERNMENT WILL SIMPLY END - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/06/02/ -- DURING THE CAMPAIGN, I HEARD THAT GOVERNMENT DRAWERS ARE FULL OF BILLS, THE RULERS ARE JUST WAITING FOR A NEW PRESIDENT. WELL, IF THEY REALLY ARE, I'D SUBMIT THEM NOW - Patryk Słowik: https://x.com/PatrykSlowik/status/1929429213947232609 -- IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE TUSK STILL BEING PRIME MINISTER: TRZASKOWSKI'S DEFEAT IS PRIMARILY THE GOVERNMENT'S DEFEAT - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI: “It is difficult to imagine Tusk still being Prime Minister: Trzaskowski’s defeat is primarily the government’s defeat. A new opening is needed here, and at least a declarative attempt at bearable cohabitation. Otherwise, in autumn, the PSL will tip the table, and instead of a planned retreat, there will be a violent BOOM.” https://x.com/synczeslawa/status/1929322156787155183 -- THE GOVERNMENT COALITION AND PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK CAN ALREADY BE ASKED ONE QUESTION: HOW COULD YOU WASTE A YEAR AND A HALF LIKE THIS? YOU SHOULD HAVE GOVERNED BETTER - Wojciech Szacki: https://x.com/szacki/status/1929320515652427857 -- PLATFORMA IS COMPLETELY COMPROMISED - CO-CHAIR OF THE RAZEM PARTY, ALEKSANDRA OWCA: The PO camp bears full responsibility. PiS fielded the weakest candidate in history and still couldn't manage. Instead of a campaign, there was moral blackmail, Tusk quoting freakfighters, Komorowski talking about shooting ducks. Platforma is completely compromised. https://x.com/owca_ola/status/1929415749237428719 -- TRZASKOWSKI'S LOSS SHOWS ONE THING: THE SCALE OF DISSATISFACTION WITH TUSK'S GOVERNMENT IS IMMENSE. A CAMPAIGN THAT DID NOT SHOW A VISION FOR DEVELOPMENT, BUT ONLY FOCUSED ON ANTI-PIS, DID NOT HELP - MARCELINA ZAWISZA: “Trzaskowski’s loss shows one thing: the scale of dissatisfaction with Tusk’s government is immense. A campaign that did not show a vision for development, but only focused on anti-PiS, did not help. Flirting with the right also didn't help. Neither adopting right-wing postulates nor going for a beer with Mentzen. People expect good governance of the state. That's why we proposed convening the Sejm and passing two laws: a budget amendment for healthcare, because the situation in hospitals and clinics is becoming truly dramatically bad, and a housing law that will facilitate housing construction for local governments and provide funds for it. Small, yes small, but bigger than currently. The Prime Minister preferred to go on media and hysterically quote a freak fight patusi.” https://x.com/mmzawisza/status/1929433199274266939 -- I BELIEVE THAT TO A LARGE EXTENT THEY DID EVERYTHING TO NOT ELECT TUSK - SZYMON HOŁOWNIA ON FB: “For half a year I’ve been saying, because I saw it with my own eyes in the marketplaces and squares in counties and municipalities: THERE IS NO SUCH Poland that will give a PO candidate (especially a center-left one) 51%. I was getting beaten up daily for the entire government, with particular emphasis on the Prime Minister (“I have nothing against you, but you with that Tusk”). I told and explained to our people: changes. Government spokesperson. People know NOTHING about what we are doing with CPK, energy, the military, in diplomacy – the entire government is a hostage of the Prime Minister’s Twitter! Renegotiation of the coalition agreement is necessary: a clear indication of a few priorities that we MUST deliver immediately, or pack up and leave. Reorganization and streamlining of this coalition, personnel and areas of responsibility. What was advice, today becomes a necessity. There will be no next warning signal, PiS will return to power, this time with Braun and Konfederacja. Did people elect Nawrocki? I believe that to a large extent they did everything to not elect Tusk. I pity Rafał. Congratulations to the new President. He faces a huge challenge: not to breathe revenge, but to mend a Poland broken in half. May he want to rise to the occasion. And us – to changes, to work.” https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004740421851 -- "IT'S POSSIBLE THAT BODNAR WILL BE FIRED AND REPLACED BY GIERTYCH." SOURCES IN KO CLAIM TUSK IS PLANNING A QUICK RECONSTRUCTION - DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK: “This is going into the trash and the thinking about this reform needs to be completely changed. I have great respect for Bodnar, but now it might turn out that he's the first to go. To put it bluntly, someone who is a bigger asshole is needed here now. When asked if Roman Giertych is that person, the answer is yes. Our interlocutor emphasizes that this time no one will whine or turn up their noses anymore, because everyone knows that it can no longer be done gently. The problem is that all parts of the governing coalition have their own analyses and diagnoses as to why Trzaskowski suffered a defeat.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/po-wyborach-tusk-planuje-rekonstrukcje-pierwszy-moze-poleciec-bodnar/2ttmqf2?utm_source=dlvr&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=x_newsweekpolska -- A CURIOSITY THAT MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK POINTS OUT IN GW: MENTZEN'S VOTERS VOTED "ANYTHING BUT TRZASKOWSKI": “In polling station no. 703 in Szoty in Ursus, Sławomir Mentzen achieved a record support in Warsaw in the first round – 22.72 percent, meaning he received 525 votes. Nawrocki received only seven percent support there in the first round, i.e., 163 votes out of 2.3 thousand cast. 'Almost every young man I meet voted for the Konfederacja candidate,' noted our reporter Wojciech Karpieszuk, walking around Szoty the day after the first round. In the second round, Nawrocki received 788 votes in this polling station, or 30.19 percent of 2.6 thousand votes. It thus appears that practically all of Mentzen's voters voted for Nawrocki.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31989959,tak-zaglosowala-warszawa-a-jak-zaglosowali-ci-ktorzy-w-pierwszej.html -- KAROL NAWROCKI'S SUCCESS IS A SHOCK FOR DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT. WHAT WILL PSL DO NOW? - MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “Karol Nawrocki’s victory in the presidential elections creates a new political reality – for both PiS and Donald Tusk’s government. The stance and behavior of the PSL may attract the most attention now. Both in the context of the future of Trzecia Droga and the entire governing coalition. What will Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz do?” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42437661-michal-kolanko-sukces-karola-nawrockiego-to-wstrzas-dla-rzadu-donalda-tuska-co-teraz-zrobi-psl -- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Kluza, Tomasz Żółciak.

Łukasz Mężyk