state of play: 05/20/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Zandberg Reports 'Thousands' Joining; Flieger Asks if Razem is the Next Konfederacja; Szułdrzyński Crowns Youth Rebellion as the True Victor

Łukasz Mężyk

— I'VE NEVER SEEN SUCH A WAVE. LITERALLY THOUSANDS OF APPLICATIONS TO THE PARTY – ADRIAN ZANDBERG: I've seen a lot in the Razem Party – the effects of the first debate in 2015, the Black Protest, entering the Sejm. I've never seen such a wave. Literally thousands of applications to the party.
https://x.com/ZandbergRAZEM/status/1924569650521657511

— WE ARE NOT A VASSAL OF CIVIC PLATFORM. I SUGGEST YOU COME TO TERMS WITH THAT. RAZEM VOTERS CANNOT BE SWAYED BY BLACKMAIL OR HYSTERICAL HEADLINES – ADRIAN ZANDBERG TELLS SUPER EXPRESS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH TOMASZ WALCZAK: “We are not a vassal of Civic Platform. I suggest you come to terms with that. Razem voters cannot be swayed by blackmail or hysterical headlines. During the campaign, I spoke about our expectations, such as 8% of GDP for healthcare or 1% of GDP for a national housing construction program. The new government was supposed to address this, but instead of change, we got crude pork-barreling, which we remember well from the times of Law and Justice. In State Treasury companies, public institutions, and agencies in Poland, people are still hired for party affiliation, not competence. There were supposed to be apartments, shorter hospital queues, and fair competitions. But as everyone can see, that's not the case. We still take seriously what we promised voters a year and a half ago. That's why we are in opposition.”

— THE FAR-RIGHT BENEFITED FROM BEING THE ONLY OPPOSITION TO THE PO-PIS DUOPOLY FOR A LONG TIME. THE LESSON IS SIMPLE: TO STOP THE FAR-RIGHT, A DIFFERENT OPPOSITION IS NEEDED – ZANDBERG TELLS WALCZAK IN SE: “The result for Braun or Mentzen is bad news for Poland. Their prescriptions would plunge our country into crisis. Unfortunately, the far-right benefited from being the only opposition to the PO-PiS duopoly for a long time. The lesson is simple: to stop the far-right, a different opposition is needed – a strong Razem. That's why we are building a pro-social alternative to the duopoly. They offered us comfortable positions, but we didn't sell out. Either politics will start serving the interests of normal, hard-working people – or the far-right will continue to grow.”

— IT JUST SO HAPPENS THAT THE FAR-RIGHT GROWS WHEN CIVIC PLATFORM GOVERNS. BECAUSE HYSTERICAL HEADLINES IN NEWSPAPERS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO STOP THE BROWNSHIRTS – ZANDBERG CONTINUES IN HIS INTERVIEW WITH WALCZAK IN SE: “The far-right grows when people are angry that things are getting more expensive, worse, and harder. That they are stuck in endless queues for doctors, forced to work overtime, treated without respect. It just so happens that the far-right grows when Civic Platform governs. Because hysterical headlines in newspapers are not enough to stop the brownshirts. We must fix Poland, make it an easier place to live for millions of hard-working people. No one will give us this pro-social change as a gift. Instead of panicking, we need to organize. In this campaign, we showed that we can do it!”
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/zandberg-tlumaczy-dlaczego-nie-poprze-zadnego-z-kandydatow-aa-4rfm-rwko-zGHa.html

— DOES RAZEM HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME THE NEW KONFEDERACJA SOMEDAY? AND WILL IT AT LEAST FIGHT FOR IT? – ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “It's hard for the left to consider these elections a success, given that Braun outpolled Zandberg and Biejat. An exit poll indicated that, in a sense, Adrian Zandberg was the clear left-wing winner of the first round, but on Monday morning his lead over Magdalena Biejat dwindled. Though it held. Left-wing voters thus made their decision, and Razem still caught the wind in its sails. The question arises how Adrian Zandberg, who finished strongly and achieved a personal success, will capitalize on this momentum: after the elections, it is clear that the party's goal is the 2027 parliamentary elections. Does Razem have a chance to become the new Konfederacja someday? And will it at least fight for it?”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art42312321-estera-flieger-piec-najwazniejszych-wnioskow-po-i-turze-ktora-wygrali-jaroslaw-kaczynski-i-donald-tusk

— KORWIN MIKKE: The situation in the second round is not my ideal one, but I understand the gravity of the situation and the threat we face. Therefore, I want it to be clear: ANYONE BUT TRZASKOWSKI.
https://x.com/JkmMikke/status/1924567103098532016

— “SORRY, I DON'T WANT ANYTHING FROM AVON.” MENTZEN RESPONDS TO PETRU REGARDING TRZASKOWSKI’S ATTEMPTS TO CONVINCE THE “FREE-MARKET ELECTORATE” – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/05/20

— WHO IS THE REAL WINNER? REBELLION! – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Although Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki are entering the second round, the true winner of the first round is the youth rebellion. Anti-system candidates garnered over 27% of the votes, and young voters are rejecting the PO–PiS duopoly. This is a signal of a profound change in the political scene.”

— THE GOVERNMENT BARELY EXCEEDED 40% – SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “If one looks at how the votes for representatives of the parties forming the October 15th coalition were distributed, Donald Tusk has reasons to worry, as they barely exceeded 40% of the votes. This is a warning to the government, as the opposition candidate will try to turn the second round into a vote of no confidence in the current authorities.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42315181-michal-szuldrzynski-wyniki-wyborow-prezydenckich-2025-kto-jest-prawdziwym-zwyciezca-bunt

— ANTI-SYSTEM VOTERS MAY PERCEIVE TRZASKOWSKI'S STRATEGY AS ELITES CLOSING RANKS TO DEFEND THE STATUS QUO – KATARZYNA WĘŻYK IN NEWSWEEK: “If Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign staff aims to attract voters with the slogan ‘all democratic hands on deck’ – that is, calling for support for the KO candidate from everyone outside the populist right – then such a strategy may prove ineffective. The same goes for arguing that the stakes of these elections are democracy. Anti-system voters might perceive this as elites closing ranks in defense of the status quo. Perhaps it would be more effective to remind them that the PiS candidate is also sitting at that table they so desperately want to overturn.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/wyniki-wyborow-zwiastuja-nowy-podzial-to-udany-szturm-antysystemowcow/p1xnj0q,452ad802

— IT TURNS OUT THAT THE YOUNGER THE GROUP OF VOTERS, THE MORE STRONGLY THEY TURNED AWAY FROM THE GOVERNMENT IN THESE ELECTIONS – MICHAŁ ROGALSKI IN ONET: “It turns out that the younger the group of voters, the more strongly they turned away from the government in these elections. In 2023, the combined support for KO, Third Way, and The Left in the 18-29 age group was almost 63%. Now, this result has plummeted to just 22.6%. However, not the entire right-wing opposition benefits from this outflow – the main beneficiary is, of course, Sławomir Mentzen.”

— THE YOUNGEST GROUP OF VOTERS, AGED 18-29, ALMOST COMPLETELY TURNED AWAY FROM THE GOVERNMENT IN THESE ELECTIONS – ROGALSKI CONTINUES IN ONET: “The youngest group of voters, aged 18-29, almost completely turned away from the government in these elections. Candidates from the ruling camp garnered only 22.6% support. Considering that in 2023, the coalition partners achieved as much as 62.9% in this group, this is an absolute disaster. This was the group that powered Rafał Trzaskowski in the second round of the presidential elections in 2020 and the then-opposition parties in the 2023 parliamentary elections.”

— IN 2025, THE DIFFERENCES IN SUPPORT BETWEEN AGE GROUPS FOR KO — PIS HAVE CLEARLY FLATTENED, AND PREVIOUS AGE-RELATED DIFFERENCES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED – ROGALSKI CONTINUES IN ONET: “The only age group in which government candidates were able to increase the support achieved in the 2023 parliamentary elections are those over 60. In the oldest age group, they managed to reduce the gap to the right from 9.5 to 4.8 percentage points. However, the good news for the government ends there. In 2025, the differences in support between age groups for KO — PiS have clearly flattened. While in 2023, older voters decidedly dominated the right-wing electorate, and the center-left had a clear advantage in other groups, two years later, the distribution of right-wing support became more even, and previous age-related differences significantly decreased.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wybory-odwrocili-sie-od-rzadu-bez-nich-rafal-trzaskowski-nie-ma-szans-na-zwyciestwo/vwk9cgd,79cfc278

— A SOURCE FROM TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN STAFF IS CONVINCED THAT THE SO-CALLED BRAUN EFFECT WILL WORK, MEANING FEAR OF THE MOST EXTREME PART OF THE RIGHT COMING TO POWER – KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONET: “Some of Mentzen's voters won't go to the second round. Of those who do go, probably more will vote for Nawrocki than for Rafał, but that still doesn't guarantee PiS's success. It's also unclear how that powerful group of young Konfederacja voters, who went to the polls for the first time, will behave. Plus, Mentzen has many entrepreneurs among his supporters. It's hard for me to imagine that most of them would support a candidate from the party that introduced the Polish Deal. Let me remind you that Duda just recently vetoed a reduction in health contributions – we hear from Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign staff. Our source is also convinced that the so-called Braun effect will work, meaning fear of the most extreme part of the right coming to power.”

— TUSK WILL HAVE HIS OWN TOUR BECAUSE THE SECOND ROUND WILL BE A PLEBISCITE ON THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CIVIC PLATFORM LEADER – DZIUBKA CONTINUES IN ONET: “However, it's possible that without Tusk's support, it won't be possible to mobilize KO voters to the extent that allowed PiS to be ousted in the autumn of 2023. It was the head of Civic Platform who then spearheaded the entire parliamentary campaign for the largest party of the then-opposition. Rafał Trzaskowski had a parallel tour at the time, which complemented the main one in some ways. It's not unlikely that the situation will repeat itself, except that Tusk and the mayor of the capital will swap roles this time. Especially since the second round will be a plebiscite on the government of the Civic Platform leader.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/rafal-trzaskowski-liczy-na-efekt-brauna-donald-tusk-wejdzie-do-gry/znqw8j2

— THE ELECTIONS SHOWED THAT SUPPORT FOR THE RIGHT IS STABLE AND SLIGHTLY EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT. HOWEVER, TWO-THIRDS OF THAT SUPPORT IS NOW THE FAR-RIGHT – JAKUB SZYMCZAK IN OKO.PRESS: “Rafał Trzaskowski, unlike in 2020, could have declared victory in the first round. But for the parties of today's coalition, the result of yesterday's elections does not look good. Nationwide, the combined result of Trzaskowski, Biejat, and Hołownia is 8.3 percentage points worse than the combined result of Trzaskowski, Hołownia, Biedroń, and Kosiniak-Kamysz in 2020.”
https://oko.press/analiza-wynikow-pierwsza-tura-wybory-pkw-2025

— THEY ALSO INTEND TO ARGUE THAT A LOSS MEANS POLITICAL CIVIL WAR AND A RETURN OF PIS TO POWER – PATRYK MICHALSKI IN WP: “An attempt to unify the ruling coalition, proposals for voters of Third Way, The Left, but also Konfederacja, mobilization of undecided voters, increasing turnout in KO strongholds, among others – this is the preliminary plan of Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign staff for the final stretch of the campaign. They also intend to argue that a loss means political civil war and a return of PiS to power.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/pozytywny-przekaz-i-wizja-politycznej-wojny-domowej-tak-ko-chce-walczyc-o-zwyciestwo-trzaskowskiego-7158369137695424a

— HOUSING ISSUES AND A SMARTPHONE BAN IN SCHOOLS ON THE TABLE FOR AGREEMENTS WITH COALITION PARTNERS BEFORE THE 2ND ROUND – GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN MONEY: “The question is whether Trzaskowski will respond to this appeal. ‘I think housing is genuinely the area where it will be most difficult for him,’ admits a Poland 2050 politician. They point to the possibility of adding another demand. ‘We'll probably try with a smartphone ban in schools too, because Szymon cares about that,’ they admit.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/koalicjanci-pomoga-trzaskowskiemu-ale-nie-za-darmo-7158458745993920a.html

— BIRTHDAYS: Aleksander Hall, Marzena Okła-Drewnowicz, Magdalena Sobkowiak.


Łukasz Mężyk