state of play: 05/12/2025
— PRESIDENT OF ZABRZE RECALLED IN REFERENDUM: “In a recall referendum held on Sunday (May 11), the president of Zabrze, Agnieszka Rupniewska, was recalled after just over a year in office. These are the results so far from 75 out of 89 Electoral District Commissions, where over 26,000 city residents participated in the vote – we were informed by the Municipal Electoral Commission in Zabrze. According to exit poll results from the All-Polish Research Group, 91.4% of residents voted to remove Rupniewska from office, versus 8.6%. The turnout in the exit poll results was 22.9%, with the required threshold being 22.1%. However, it appears the turnout may be significantly higher, as votes from 14 electoral commissions are still being counted.”
https://zabrze24.info/zegnaj-zabrze-prezydent-agnieszka-rupniewska-odwolana-w-referendum/
— AT TIMES, ONE GETS THE IMPRESSION THAT THE AUDIT FINDINGS CARED MORE ABOUT THE INTERESTS OF THE NIK PRESIDENT THAN ABOUT A FAITHFUL EXAMINATION OF HIS ASSETS – IZABELA KACPRZAK AND GRAŻYNA ZAWADKA IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “An audit of the investigation into the assets of the Supreme Audit Office (NIK) president, Marian Banaś, suggests irregularities but does not undermine the investigation's findings. The proceedings are ongoing, and four more individuals have just been charged – 'Rzeczpospolita' has established. In August, the NIK president will lose his immunity. (...) However, while the report points to some irregularities, it does not cast doubt on the initiation of the investigation or its findings to date, which culminated in a request submitted in July 2021 to lift the NIK president's immunity. The Sejm has not yet addressed it, and the prosecutor's office withdrew the request for supplementation.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42257661-klopoty-prezesa-nik-mariana-banasia-kolejne-cztery-osoby-uslyszaly-zarzuty
— TRZASKOWSKI IS LOSING, NAWROCKI IS LOSING – HEADLINE IN RZ ACCORDING TO IBRIS POLL FOR PR24:
TRZASKOWSKI 33.2% /–3.6
NAWROCKI 24.9% /–3.5
MENTZEN 13.3% /+0.6
HOŁOWNIA 9.1% /+2.3
BIEJAT 6.6% /+0.9
ZANDBERG 5.7% /+2.2
BRAUN 2.7% /+1.1
STANOWSKI 1.7% /+0.5
JAKUBIAK 1.1% /–0.6
SENYSZYN 0.9% /–0.4
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42263951-nowy-sondaz-prezydencki-traci-rafal-trzaskowski-traci-karol-nawrocki
— TRZASKOWSKI IS BALANCING ON A CRITICAL THRESHOLD – MATEUSZ WOJTALIK IN ONE: “Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki together will only secure 55% of the votes in the first round of the presidential election – according to an Opinia24 poll for 'Newsweek'. Sławomir Mentzen is third, but with no chance of reaching the second round. However, four candidates are fiercely competing for fourth place, and Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg have reason to celebrate. A week before the presidential elections, Rafał Trzaskowski leads in the poll – 30% of respondents indicated him as their candidate. This is one of the worst results for the Civic Coalition (KO) candidate in this campaign. It means Trzaskowski is close to losing the 'three' at the front. Falling below 30% would mean the campaign for the Mayor of Warsaw has crossed a critical threshold.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/sondaz-prezydencki-w-pierwszej-turze-slaby-wynik-rafala-trzaskowskiego/fmdv3m1,452ad802
— SOCIAL MEDIA ARE FLOODED WITH MEMES PRAISING ADRIAN ZANDBERG'S PERFORMANCE IN THE REPUBLIC DEBATE? THE CRUCIAL QUESTION FOR THE COALITION IS WHETHER ZANDBERG CAN MAINTAIN MOMENTUM TODAY IN THE DEBATE.
— MAGDINI CZARZASTINI, MOLTO LIBERALE, TUSKO AMORE – THESE VIDEOS ARE GAINING TRACTION ON TIKTOK FOR ADRIAN ZANDBERG: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DJbnTN2MM_F/?igsh=MWR1MzMzd3UzMjd1dA%3D%3D
— MOM, VOTE FOR ADISON – ONE OF THE MEMES:
https://x.com/balcerowitch/status/1921207396908548348
— WELL, ACTUALLY, I DIDN'T EVEN HAVE TO LIVE HERE, I COULD HAVE STAYED IN SPAIN – A POPULAR VIDEO WITH A CONVERSATION WITH MAGDALENA BIEJAT:
https://x.com/rzegrzxg/status/1921302410275799460
— CROWDS AT A MEETING WITH ZANDBERG IN KATOWICE: https://x.com/RemigiuszCetnar/status/1921277828001059255
— HE DRANK A DECOCTION WITH IGA ŚWIĄTEK – ONE OF THE VIRAL TWEETS:
https://x.com/switezianki/status/1920949127707303989
— ZANDBERG, BUT A FEW PEOPLE WERE GOOD. MENTZEN TOO, BUT THE DIRECT CLASH POINTS TO THE DANE – KRZYSZTOF STANOWSKI:
https://x.com/K_Stanowski/status/1921128190245826711
— THE “FAVORITISM” WE SEE TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE SAW UNDER PIS – STATED ADRIAN ZANDBERG IN SUNDAY'S “GOŚĆ WYDARZEŃ”. THE POLITICIAN ADDED THAT IN THE CASE OF STATE-OWNED COMPANIES, “A PIS MEMBERSHIP CARD IS NOW A PLATFORM MEMBERSHIP CARD.”
https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2025-05-11/zandberg-uderza-w-rzad-bede-uzywal-brzydkich-slow/
— “VOTERS ARE NOT SACKS OF POTATOES”. ZANDBERG ON WHETHER HE WOULD SUPPORT TRZASKOWSKI IN THE SECOND ROUND, “HE SHOULD NOT ENGAGE IN SUCH TRANSACTIONS.” BODNAR ON NAWROCKI'S AGREEMENT WITH MR. JERZY – 300LIVE:
https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/05/12/
— LET'S HOPE THAT AFTER THE FIRST ROUND, ZANDBERG WILL BREAK HIS SILENCE AND SAY WHAT BOTH DECENCY AND COMMON SENSE DICTATE – ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “Trzaskowski's result in the second round may therefore depend on the stance of the other candidates from the democratic bloc, as they are now gathering over one-third of the pro-democratic voters' support. It seems that Magdalena Biejat and Szymon Hołownia will behave like family with Trzaskowski before the second round. However, Adrian Zandberg's position is questionable, as his campaign is very confrontational towards Trzaskowski – and almost half of the left-wing candidates' voters are his supporters. Zandberg's silence on the question of what is better – liberal democracy, guaranteed by Trzaskowski, or the Pisowska oligarchy that breaks the rules of law, represented by Nawrocki – was excellently described and commented on by Tadeusz Bartoś. Let's hope that after the first round, Zandberg will break his silence and say what both decency and common sense dictate.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31923953,analiza-sondazy-czy-wyborcy-lewicy-i-trzeciej-drogi-dadza-zwyciestwo.html
— PEOPLE ARE STILL PROCESSING THIS STORY, AND PIS IS STILL FIGHTING FOR ITS REINTERPRETATION. OUR CONVERSATIONS INDICATE THAT IT IS QUITE EFFECTIVE – AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “There are many arguments suggesting that Karol Nawrocki has been damaged by the housing issue, but Rafał Trzaskowski cannot pop the champagne yet. People are still processing this story, and PiS is still fighting for its reinterpretation. Our conversations indicate that it is quite effective.”
— OTHER PEOPLE BELIEVE, BUT INTERPRET THE MATTER COMPLETELY DIFFERENTLY THAN, FOR EXAMPLE, WE DO AT OKO.PRESS. “WOULD YOU LET SOMEONE LIVE IN YOUR APARTMENT, WHICH YOU WOULD BE PAYING FOR?” – I HEAR THIS FROM BOTH A 50-YEAR-OLD AND A 70-YEAR-OLD – FURTHER IN AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK'S TEXT IN OKO: “Other people believe, but interpret the matter completely differently than, for example, we do at OKO.press. 'Would you let someone live in your apartment, which you would be paying for?' – I hear this from both a 50-year-old and a 70-year-old. They believe that Nawrocki deserves praise. 'Did you hear about elderly people being kicked out of their homes? How many situations are there where a son or daughter throws out their mother! Mr. Karol was paying for the apartment, and that man lived there.' Taking apartments from elderly people is a practice known from everyday life. My interviewees claim that Nawrocki acted better than the 'average' person they know. There is also this argument: 'Let them settle their own apartments first! What is this Trzaskowski doing in Warsaw? He throws people out onto the street. This Minister of Justice made some shady deals with an apartment. If they treated everyone equally, not just him, they'd point out everyone.'”
— PERHAPS MORE SURPRISING IS WHAT I HEAR FROM SEVERAL YOUNG MEN WHO WILL VOTE FOR SŁAWOMIR MENTZEN – FURTHER IN AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK'S TEXT IN OKO: “Of course, all these people are the most ardent supporters of Law and Justice, and one can expect them to defend Nawrocki. Perhaps more surprising is what I hear from several young men who will vote for Sławomir Mentzen. 'I'm not going to vote for Trzaskowski!' 'Yeah, the apartment thing is bad.' 'It's bad that a presidential candidate robbed an old man.'
Who will they vote for in the second round?
'For Nawrocki.'
Still? Really? Why?
'Well, not for Trzaskowski!'
But he robbed an old man?
'We need to change something. Vote against Trzaskowski.'”
https://oko.press/czy-rafal-trzaskowski-juz-wygral-wybory-niekoniecznie-wyjasniamy-co-jeszcze-moze-sie-zdarzyc
— DIVIDED OPINIONS IN MENTZEN'S ELECTORATE AFTER HIS ATTACK ON NAWROCKI – MONIKA WALUŚ REPORTS IN ONE – EXCERPT FROM A REPORTAGE: “- Nawrocki might not have lied, and on the other hand, everyone has something on them, probably Mentzen too – emphasizes Anna. She believes that the Confederation candidate had to attack Nawrocki because those are the rules of the election campaign. – However, I don't like that the campaign is about discouraging candidates from each other, rather than encouraging support for one's own candidacy – adds Anna. – It's not ethical behavior on Nawrocki's part, but I'm afraid Mentzen might alienate those voters who are still undecided between him and Nawrocki. Words that are too harsh might not have a completely positive effect on the Confederation candidate – believes, in turn, 53-year-old Beata. – And if Mentzen doesn't make it to the second round, would you be willing to vote for Karol Nawrocki? – I ask. – I'm willing to vote against Trzaskowski – she replies with a smile. My conversation with Anna, a pensioner from near Warsaw, ends the same way. – Who will I vote for in the second round? Anyone but Trzaskowski, God forbid! – she says.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/wybory/wybory-prezydenckie/co-wyborcy-konfederacji-mowia-o-aferze-nawrockiego-przestalam-sie-ludzic/
— EVEN THE MOST DETERMINED FANS ARE GETTING TIRED. ONE CAN SENSE THAT THE OLD SPELLS ARE WORKING LESS AND LESS EFFECTIVELY – LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA: “The incessant election campaign has been ongoing since the beginning of 2023, if not since Donald Tusk's return to Polish politics. Even the most determined fans are getting tired. One can sense that the old spells are working less and less effectively. It's becoming increasingly difficult to show the same old tricks to an increasingly bored audience. The constant flags, Zandberg's 'atomówki' [a metaphor for strong statements/actions], or Hołownia driving a taxi, briefly boost reach, but they don't answer the fundamental question: what are these elections about?”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/wybory/prezydenckie/news-karol-ktory-nie-zostal-prezydentem,nId,21400429
— NAWROCKI IS NOT RESIGNING, AND THE PIS CAMPAIGN TEAM DEFENDS ITSELF WITH IMPUDENCE. AND THAT IS WHY THESE ELECTIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY A GREAT CIVIC TEST – PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “The days when not declaring a watch in a financial disclosure statement led to the end of a political career are long gone. Standards have evaporated. That is why Nawrocki is not resigning, and the PiS campaign team defends itself with impudence. And that is why these elections will be primarily a great civic test.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/wybory/prezydenckie/news-polski-test,nId,21400481
— THE PROSPECT OF DONALD TUSK'S DANGEROUS AUTOCRACY – JAN ROKITA IN WSZYSTKO CO NAJWAŻNIEJSZE: “So, what does this risk entail? Rafał Trzaskowski – this is, of course, the prospect of Donald Tusk's dangerous autocracy. It is quite improbable that President Rafał Trzaskowski will be able, at least in the initial phase of his presidency, to set any limits on the personal rule of the current Prime Minister. It is no coincidence that Donald Tusk is publicly counting down the days and hours until the end of Andrzej Duda's term, hoping that the long-awaited moment of power will then arrive, limited only by his own will. The president will not oppose him, nor will the Sejm and Senate, nor will city presidents, judges, or the Supreme Audit Office, nor will Europe. And this will be regardless of how far and how brutally he wishes to expand the scope of his hegemony. We do not know what Donald Tusk will ultimately do with such autocracy. Perhaps he will use it prudently, fearing the backlash from voters? Or perhaps he will fall into a kind of 'hubris' and at the end of his career, he will want to show everyone what he is capable of? Let us repeat: we do not know. And this is precisely the political risk of electing Rafał Trzaskowski.”
— ONLY A STRONG TRANSITION CAN LEAD TO SOMETHING BETTER IN THE FUTURE. I MUST ADMIT THAT I MYSELF THINK OF THE INEVITABILITY OF A SHARP CONFRONTATION AND A CRISIS OF POWER AS A CONDITION FOR POSSIBLE REPAIR – FURTHER IN JAN ROKITA: “One can assume, perhaps not without reason, that the political conflict in Poland is so strong and unbearable that only a strong transition can lead to something better in the future. I must admit that I myself think of the inevitability of a sharp confrontation and a crisis of power as a condition for possible repair. Nevertheless, the question of which of these crises is safer for the country and which offers a chance for some future 'political catharsis' does not have an obvious answer. This answer, therefore, is a matter of individual reason and conscience of each of us – the voters.
https://wszystkoconajwazniejsze.pl/jan-rokita-kwestia-rozumu-i-sumienia/
— BIRTHDAYS: Witold Koziński, Marcin Makowski.
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