— SATURDAY'S POLITICAL AGENDA: TUSK'S VISIT TO KYIV, TRZASKOWSKI AND SIKORSKI IN BYDGOSZCZ, NAWROCKI ON TOUR, KACZYŃSKI'S MORNING STATEMENT, HOŁOWNIA IN LUBLIN: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/05/10/

— NAWROCKI CAME THROUGH THE REPUBLIC DEBATE UNSCATHED, BUT KRZYSZTOF STANOWSKI APPEALED FOR NAWROCKI TO FACE THE MEDIA – AGATA KONDZIŃSKA AND IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “There wasn't enough time in the three-hour debate to ask about the PiS candidate's Gdańsk studio apartment. However, Krzysztof Stanowski appealed for Nawrocki to face the media and explain the transaction thoroughly. 'I would like to know if you defrauded for the apartment, because the presidency is a serious matter,' Stanowski said.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31923678,debata-w-republice-nawrocki-przeszedl-sucha-noga.html

— IN MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI'S OPINION IN RZ, KAROL NAWROCKI GAINED FROM THE REPUBLIC DEBATE: “But after Friday's clash, only one person will definitely gain. It's Karol Nawrocki, who, in a fairly balanced debate, after the toughest week of his campaign, could finally talk about his program instead of just defending how he acquired an apartment from an elderly person. He didn't do too badly, either, as he shows some progress from debate to debate, though it's very slight progress, nothing spectacular. I doubt he convinced anyone beyond declared PiS voters. But it was precisely to them that he wanted to show on Friday that his campaign is going according to plan. And he succeeded in that.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42257711-michal-plocinski-jest-jeden-kandydat-ktory-zdecydowanie-zyskal-na-debacie-prezydenckiej-tv-republika

— THIS IS A DRAMATIC TURN IN THE CAMPAIGN. KACZYŃSKI NO LONGER CONTROLS THE SITUATION – ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN NEWSWEEK: “This is a dramatic turn in the campaign, which had been going better and better for Nawrocki in recent weeks. The spectacular convention in Łódź, which had a 'money' feel to it, even though PiS officially has 'no money,' strong support from Andrzej Duda, and finally a skillfully handled visit to the USA, so skillfully that evening jesters mocked that Nawrocki only got into the White House gardens, only to wake up in the morning to photos of the PiS candidate in Trump's Oval Office. All of that is now in the past. The PiS campaign is returning to its roots – Nawrocki's shady contacts and stains on his biography.”

— THE GDAŃSK-PROPAGANDA FACTION STANDS BEHIND NAWROCKI'S NOMINATION – STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “It would be trivial to wonder which politicians stood behind Nawrocki's nomination. It is, in principle, a Gdańsk-propaganda faction, a team that took over the Ministry of Culture and TVP during PiS rule, heavily promoting Nawrocki – Jacek Kurski, Piotr Gliński, and Jarosław Sellin, supported by IPN figures like Sławomir Cenckiewicz.”

— WHO WANTS TO BRING POLAND CLOSER TO SLOVAKIA, WHERE POWER FLUIDLY INTERTWINES WITH THE OCTOPUS? – STANKIEWICZ IN NEWSWEEK CONTINUES: “This is the key question for Polish politics – who wants to ensure that an ambassador of the underworld sits in the presidential palace? Who wants to bring Poland closer to Slovakia, where power fluidly intertwines with the octopus? The nomination for Nawrocki confirms that Kaczyński no longer controls the situation, does not control his party, and makes grotesque, even dangerous, decisions.”

— DOES THIS MEAN THERE IS NOTHING LEFT THAT CAN COMPROMISE PiS? – STANKIEWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “However, Nawrocki's victory cannot yet be ruled out. If, in exchange for a concentrated dose of ideology and fears, Poles accept the swindling of an elderly person out of an apartment in exchange for care (without care) and money (without money), it means there is nothing left that can compromise PiS. And this, in turn, means that if Kaczyński returns to power, he will be able to do absolutely anything. After all, his people will have a blank check for shamelessness signed by the nation.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/polityczna-katastrofa-dla-nawrockiego-jaroslaw-kaczynski-nie-panuje-nad-sytuacja/bzw0trd

— TWO PARTY POLLS IN ONE DAY. BOTH ARE DISASTROUS FOR THE THIRD WAY. IN ONE, THE RAZEM PARTY HAS CAUGHT UP – RZ: “The biggest changes occurred outside the podium. Nowa Lewica recorded 9% support, securing fourth place. The Razem party obtained 5%, which is exactly the electoral threshold. The Third Way, despite the same result, finds itself in a completely different position. The PSL and Polska 2050 coalition does not exceed the 8% electoral threshold.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42260231-dwa-sondaze-partyjne-jednego-dnia-oba-fatalne-dla-trzeciej-drogi-w-jednym-dogonila-ja-partia-razem

— PARTY POLL. THE THIRD WAY'S ELECTORATE HAS DISSIPATED LIKE SMOKE – MATEUSZ WOJTALIK ON THE Onet HOMEPAGE.

— IN THE POLLSTER POLL FOR SE, PiS HOLDS A SLIGHT LEAD:
PIS 32.3 (+1.2)
KO 31.0 (-0.2)
CONFEDERATION 15.1 (-1.6)
3D 9.5 (-0.1)
LEWICA 5.9% (=)
RAZEM 5.4% (+0.5)
Others 0.7%
https://x.com/DawidStats/status/1920857421188087980

— WE HAVEN'T EVEN FORGOTTEN WHY WE REMOVED KACZYŃSKI FROM POWER YET, AND WE'VE ALREADY BEEN DISAPPOINTED WITH TUSK. WE ARE STARTING TO LOOK FOR SOMEONE WHO COULD CREDIBLY PROMISE US SOMETHING NEW – SAYS MARCIN DUMA FROM IBRIS IN A CONVERSATION WITH PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “In Poland, we haven't yet forgotten why we removed Kaczyński from power, and we've already been disappointed with Tusk. We haven't forgiven the previous authorities, but from the new ones, whose leaders made many promises during the campaign, we've received too little. We are starting to look for someone who could credibly promise us something new.”

— ACCELERATION OF THE INFORMATION CYCLE. TUSK AND HIS COALITION FELL VICTIM TO THIS. THE SAME APPLIES TO DONALD TRUMP, BUT ALSO TO THE BRITISH LABOUR PARTY – DUMA CONTINUES WITH ZAREMBA IN RZ: “This is a matter of external threat, Poland's security. And on the other hand, the problem of stolen economic growth. After 2020, we spent money in our minds that we hadn't even earned. COVID disrupted this, then the war along with the inflation shock. In my opinion, this is one of the main reasons for PiS's recent defeat. However, we already spoke about the acceleration of the information cycle. Tusk and his coalition fell victim to this. The same applies to Donald Trump, but also to the British Labour Party. After a few months in power, the Labour Party reached the support level of the Conservatives when they had been losing elections for 12 years. We hadn't known such a speed of change.”

— POLES WOULDN'T BE CHECKING "100 CONCRETE ACTIONS" TO SEE WHAT WASN'T FULFILLED IF THEIR WALLETS HAD GROWN FULLER – DUMA CONTINUES WITH ZAREMBA IN RZ: “This is an even more significant signal. Regarding economic indicators, they have even improved slightly, but people feel it's happening too slowly. Poles wouldn't be checking '100 concrete actions' to see what wasn't fulfilled if their wallets had grown fuller.”

— THE DIVISION BETWEEN PiS AND THE CONFEDERATION IS LARGELY GENERATIONAL, BUT IT'S NOT AN INSURMOUNTABLE BARRIER. I HAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT IF KRZYSZTOF BOSAK WERE THE CONFEDERATION'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, THIS THRESHOLD WOULD BE CROSSED EVEN MORE EASILY – DUMA CONTINUES WITH ZAREMBA IN RZ: “The problem of non-recognition of elections following the non-recognition of the Supreme Court chamber looms over us, it's true. But to what extent does this consolidate the right wing? The process of disintegration of the duopoly began with the Confederation's expansion. It speaks today in some matters almost like a centrist party. The division between PiS and the Confederation is largely generational, but it's not an insurmountable barrier. I have the impression that if Krzysztof Bosak were the Confederation's presidential candidate, this threshold would be crossed even more easily.”

— FOR A POLE, THE UNION IS A MOTHER CARING ABOUT FOOD, AND THE USA IS A FATHER MAKING SURE WE ARE SAFE – CLAIMS DUMA IN CONVERSATION WITH ZAREMBA IN RZ: “Poles consider this most important, although they are aware that our influence on events is nil. Polls show that they consider the USA to be the key to Poland's security. We recently repeated such surveys, and nothing has changed here. It's not easy to change this; it even stems from history lessons – America has always been with us at key moments. For a Pole, the Union is a mother caring about food, and the USA is a father ensuring our safety.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art42248971-marcin-duma-sondaze-wyborcze-powinny-byc-zakazane-zarobilbym-na-tym-wiecej

— THE LAST ELECTION BETWEEN KACZYŃSKI AND TUSK – CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Tusk will remain the 'manager' of his formation, as he has no replacements. He is a natural leader 'for dangerous times,' and times will become very dangerous for 'liberal Poland.' If, furthermore, Nawrocki as president does not quickly build a coalition around himself that removes Kaczyński from power over the right wing, in the parliamentary elections (whether accelerated or not), Kaczyński and Tusk will collide again. However, if – which is more likely today – Trzaskowski becomes president, the inevitable and painful process of removing Kaczyński from power over the Polish right wing will begin.”

— THE LIST OF NAMES KACZYŃSKI TRUSTS IS MORE OF A PARODY OF SUCCESSION THAN A GUARANTEE OF ITS ORDERLY IMPLEMENTATION UNDER THE PREZES'S SUPERVISION – MICHALSKI CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “Young wolves acting in groups to overthrow the once-omnipotent, and now somewhat aged, alpha male – these are Morawiecki, Czarnek, Duda, Mastalerek, Wipler, Bosak… There are quite a few of them, and since they are no longer young themselves, they are more impatient. Whom can Kaczyński pit against them as his anointed successors, who would wait for his consent to take over from him? Błaszczak, Gliński, Terlecki? The list of names Kaczyński trusts is more of a parody of succession than a guarantee of its orderly implementation under the Prezes's supervision.”

— THE PRIME MINISTER WILL BE FORCED TO BE ACTIVE – MICHALSKI CONTINUES: “The Prime Minister will be forced to be active. The coalition will also be forced to rethink its functioning, dispute resolution, and the definition of areas of dominance and responsibility for individual coalition partners. If the PSL and Lewica remain satisfied with blocking each other, then publicly blaming each other for the blockage, and thus emphasizing their sovereignty (towards each other and towards Tusk), Lewica will cede ground to Zandberg, and PSL will cease to exist. Even if PiS loses the countryside, it will lose it not to the PSL, but to the Confederation or another type of neo-right or neo-Samoobrona.”

— EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE IN 2026 REMAINS THE ONLY WAY TO AVOID LOSING POWER IN 2027 – CLAIMS MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Of course, even in the case of poor governance, Tusk might conclude that accountability will settle the matter, that elections can be won through accountability. However, a weak government can be overthrown by anyone who escapes accountability or survives it. Effective governance in 2026 (one year without elections is not much time, making this time even more precious) remains the only way to avoid losing power in 2027.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/wybory/prezydenckie/news-ostatnie-wybory-pomiedzy-kaczynskim-i-tuskiem,nId,21400240

— DUE TO VAGUE FORMULATIONS, THE DURABILITY OF THE POLISH-FRENCH ALLIANCE RAISES QUESTIONS – SZYMON ŁUCYK IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Despite official declarations, one can doubt whether the treaty is groundbreaking. Work on the document took over a year, but, as 'Tygodnik' has established, the final text was agreed upon only three days before the document was signed, last Tuesday. (...) Therefore, there is no explicit mention of the use of 'all means,' let alone the inclusion of Poland under the French nuclear umbrella. When asked about this issue at a press conference, Macron emphasized that according to the old French nuclear doctrine, the French president decides on the use of atomic weapons based on the country's 'vital interests.'”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/traktat-w-nancy-podpisany-nowy-rozdzial-czy-kurtuazyjny-gest-190620

— BIRTHDAYS: Alicja Chybicka, Barbara Nowacka, Tomasz Szatkowski, Tomasz Chaciński, Michał Marszałek, Stanisław Żerko. SUNDAY: Ludgarda Buzek turns 90! Patryk Jaki turns 40, and his daughter Ola turns five. Also celebrating birthdays are: Anna Streżyńska, Jan Ołdakowski, Zbigniew Benbenek, Joanna Górska