state of play: 05/06/2025

STATE OF PLAY: UK Prepares for War, Pacewicz: Nawrocki Loses Momentum Each Time He Starts to Build It

Łukasz Mężyk

— UNITED KINGDOM PREPARES FOR WAR – DAILY TELEGRAPH: “What would happen if Russia launched a military attack on the UK? A team of civil servants has been tasked with developing this issue, amid growing concern in Whitehall about Russian aggression in Europe. Officials are working on a secret document that would regulate life in the UK during wartime – from nuclear bunkers for the cabinet to managing railways, post, and water. The review will cover a range of scenarios described as “conventional attacks,” including missile and cyberattacks, as well as the threat of nuclear weapons. Previous versions of this strategy, developed during the Cold War, included a plan to evacuate the royal family on their yacht. The BBC was to be used almost exclusively by the government. But I was told that the strategy was last updated over 20 years ago – when state threats were decreasing and the main concern was domestic terrorism. Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and other “axis” powers like China, Iran, and North Korea pose a serious threat to life in the UK. An attack carried out today would look completely different than one from the turn of the century”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/05/starmer-prepares-for-attack-by-russia/

— WILL WE LEARN THE NAME OF THE NEW POPE ON THURSDAY? – ONET:
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wybor-nowego-papieza-ks-prof-kobylinski-podaje-prawdopodobny-termin/v81b0w2,79cfc278

— SOMEONE WHO WILL HAVE THE SAME ABILITY TO MAKE IT ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE WIDER WORLD TO IGNORE WHAT THE CATHOLIC CHURCH HAS TO SAY – FR. KAZIMIERZ SOWA ON THE NEW POPE – WRITES GW: “the experiences of the last three pontificates, from John Paul II to Francis, prove that popes still play a significant role on the world political stage, and their voice, though often criticized, is heard and commented on. Therefore, quoting Allen again, the cardinal electors should choose “someone who will have the same ability to make it absolutely impossible for the wider world to ignore what the Catholic Church has to say”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31905416,kto-bedzie-papiezem-duch-swiety-staje-przed-trudnym-wyborem.html

— KO RETURNS TO 1ST PLACE – US FOR WP: the current ruling coalition – Civic Coalition, Third Way, and The Left – would have 233 seats, thus being able to form a government.
Civic Coalition 30.4 (+1.8 percentage points)
PiS 27.3 (-2.3)
Confederation 14.4 (+0.5)
Third Way 8.8 (+0.7)
The Left 6.8 (-1)
Together 3.9 (+0.5)
The United Surveys poll was conducted for Wirtualna Polska on April 28-29, 2025.
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/ko-znow-liderem-triumf-w-pis-nie-trwal-dlugo-najnowszy-sondaz-7153498459360032a

— TELEWIZJA WPOLSCE.PL SURPASSES POLSAT NEWS AND TVP INFO IN VIEWERSHIP WITH 1.44 percent.
https://wpolityce.pl/media/728624-kolejny-sukces-telewizji-wpolsce24-swietna-ogladalnosc

— IN THE EVENING, JAN MARIA ROKITA ON MAZUREK IN KANAŁ ZERO. Tomorrow, Hołownia on Stanowski, the day after tomorrow, Stanowski on Trzaskowski.

— NITRAS: TRZASKOWSKI WILL MEET WITH TRUMP AS PRESIDENT OF POLAND. MEETING WITH OBAMA? THERE WERE NO SUCH PLANS – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/05/06/

— A SHADOW OF FEAR HAS FALLEN UPON PIS. “WE ARE STUCK IN THIS STORY” – JACEK GĄDEK ON ONET: “The fear in Nowogrodzka is that the campaign team and the PiS candidate himself will continue to explain away the apartment issue, the story of Mr. Jerzy, until the end of the campaign, and each answer will only fuel further questions. And so it will go until the end of the campaign. A source from PiS: — Legally, it's clean, but communicatively, we're getting stuck in this story. We'll be busy explaining until the elections and will lose time anyway. We need to defend ourselves against these accusations somehow, but not in a way that the defense overshadows the end of the campaign”.

— NO ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO CONTROLLEDLY DETONATE THE TROUBLESOME STORY. TODAY THE CAMPAIGN TEAM IS PAYING FOR IT – GĄDEK FURTHER ON ONET: “Interestingly, discussions arose in Nowogrodzka months ago about whether to try to somehow preemptively release the story about the apartment, informing the media and immediately framing it within a narrative of Nawrocki’s caring nature. But this was not decided. No attempt was made to controlledly detonate the troublesome story. Today, the campaign team is paying for it. The PiS campaign team knows well that the issue is now spreading uncontrollably, and at a critical time in the campaign.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/w-pis-sie-boja-ze-mieszkanie-nawrockiego-wysadzi-w-powietrze-koncowke-kampanii/bgygjqm,452ad802

— IN ORDER TO TRACK DOWN THE CONSPIRACY AGAINST NAWROCKI, TELEWIZJA REPUBLIKA, WHERE JACK KURSKI’S PROPAGANDISTS MOVED, EVEN DISCOVERED A “SECRET ABW HEADQUARTERS” – WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “From there, as if from the Death Star, hostile inspirations and dirty secrets emanate. The address from which Republika broadcast live dramatic reports on Monday is most likely a hotel where officers staying in Warsaw on business trips lodge. What conspiracy, such a Death Star.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31909733,szczujnia-i-wolne-media.html

— KAROL NAWROCKI’S LIE REVEALS UNCOMFORTABLE FACTS. PIS HAS A PROBLEM – JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “More debates lie ahead. The President of the Institute of National Remembrance performs better in the media; it is evident that he has worked hard on himself. However, no specialists or public speaking coaches will help his image when a candidate publicly lies. Most ordinary Poles will find it difficult to identify with someone who publicly deceives them.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42228241-jacek-nizinkiewicz-klamstwo-karola-nawrockiego-odslania-niewygodne-fakty-pis-ma-problem

— TRZASKOWSKI IS SO STRONG, IT'S FRIGHTENING. WILL NAWROCKI REPEAT LECH KACZYŃSKI'S 2005 SURGE? – PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “Each of these two candidates can achieve a surge in their ratings between the first and second rounds. Nawrocki certainly has greater reserves than Trzaskowski, but lesser skills.”

— THE BOXER HIT HIMSELF IN THE JAW WITH HIS OWN GLOVE – PACEWICZ FURTHER: “Using language close to Karol Nawrocki’s, one could say the boxer hit himself in the jaw with his own glove. The story, revealed by a little lie, about an apartment belonging to an elderly, disabled gentleman who bought the premises from the city for money from Nawrocki in exchange for a promise of care, could shake his support among older voters who identify with Mr. Jerzy, who ultimately ended up in a nursing home. The PiS electorate always forgives cunning, but deceiving an elderly person?”

— NAWROCKI LOSES MOMENTUM EACH TIME HE STARTS TO BUILD IT – PACEWICZ FURTHER IN OKO
: “Let’s add that Nawrocki is in constant defense because the media keep digging up more blemishes on his biography. The campaign team (and all of PiS) is doing everything to portray the accusations as a conspiracy by services and media colluding with Trzaskowski, but Nawrocki loses momentum each time he starts to build it. The apartment-for-life annuity scandal, for instance, limits the image-building success that was the brief meeting with Trump and his (alleged) words “You will win this, Karol” (mocking this event does not change its message).”

— SUCH A DISCREPANCY IN POLL POSITIONS IN PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IS A KIND OF ANOMALY – CLAIMS PIOTR PACEWICZ: “Trzaskowski’s support in a hypothetical second round (average of nine polls in April = 51.5%) exceeds the sum of the ratings of the three coalition parties by as much as 6.5 percentage points. In the second round, Nawrocki gains 3 percentage points less in polls than the sum of support for PiS and Confederation. Such a discrepancy in poll positions in parliamentary and presidential elections, however, constitutes a kind of anomaly.”

— NAWROCKI'S SURGE? IT IS NOT EXCLUDED – PACEWICZ FURTHER IN OKO: “One can easily imagine that the last four weeks of the campaign will be as undynamic as they have been so far. Trzaskowski will cultivate the image of a thoughtful patriot who promises security, stability, and building a “community of trust and respect.” Nawrocki will promote himself as the better patriot who wants, among other things, to further limit the rights of refugees and relies on Trump. This would mean a smooth victory for Trzaskowski. The question is whether Nawrocki, PiS, or the Polish right more broadly, is capable of mobilizing voters for a massive attack on Trzaskowski as a representative of a state that is bad and alien to them.”
https://oko.press/czy-trzaskowski-moze-przegrac-wybory

— BOCHEŃSKI REMINDED ROSA THAT SHE ALREADY HAS FOUR APARTMENTS, AND SHE IS A YOUNG POLITICAL LADY – GW ON THE COURSE OF THE CAMPAIGN TEAMS’ DEBATE ON POLSAT: “The topic resurfaced during an exchange with the KO representative, when Rosa expressed surprise that Bocheński was not condemning Nawrocki's behavior. This time, Bocheński was surprised because, as he said, he is surprised that the KO representative is attacking, when her colleague Robert Kropiwnicki has twelve apartments, and Trzaskowski has three. And the latter, according to Bocheński’s assessment, undervalues one of them in his asset declaration. Rosa was reminded that she already has four apartments and is a young political lady.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31909484,debata-sztabow-w-polsacie-przedstawiciel-karola-nawrockiego.html

— DONALD TUSK’S GOVERNMENT RETURNS TO ROLLING UP THE TRACKS – KAROL TRAMMER IN OKO.PRESS: “Actions have begun to liquidate the Racibórz Markowice – Olza railway line. Completing this process will mean not only a return after eight years to dismantling the railway network but also a return to the old practice of cutting tracks to build roads, which in various parts of the country has dashed hopes for the return of rail connections.”
https://oko.press/rzad-donalda-tuska-wraca-do-zwijania-torow

— BIRTHDAYS: Witold Bereś, Janusz Cieszyński, Stanisława Prządka, Marcin Zawiła.


Łukasz Mężyk