state of play: 04/28/2025
— THREE WEEKS UNTIL THE START OF THE CAMPAIGN FOR THE 2ND ROUND.
— IBRIS FOR POLISH RADIO:
Trzaskowski – 33.2% (+2.4)*
Nawrocki – 25.6% (n/a)
Mentzen – 11.5% (-0.9)
Hołownia – 6.1% (-0.5)
Biejat – 5.1% (-0.5)
Zandberg – 3.2% (-0.4)
Jakubiak – 1.6% (+0.4)
Braun – 1.4% (+0.1)
Senyszyn – 1.2% (+0.2)
Stanowski – 1.1% (-0.2)
Others – 0.2%
Don't know – 9.8%
— OGB PRO:
Trzaskowski – 34.16 (-1.4)
Nawrocki – 30.76 (+1.2)
Mentzen – 14.32 (-6.1)
Hołownia – 5.43% (+2)
Biejat – 3.37 (+1.9)
Zandberg – 3.2 (+1.6)
Braun – 3.25 (-1.4)
Stanowski – 2.34 (+1.1)
Jakubiak – 1.34 (+0.5)
https://x.com/OGB_Pro/status/1916745812823978351
— DIRE SHOPPING DATA. PRICES HAVEN'T BEEN THIS HIGH THIS YEAR – BUSINESS INSIDER AND PANPARAGON APP SHOPPING BASKET: “We will now pay a total of PLN 117.12 for the most popular items in stores – according to the latest analysis by PanParagon for Business Insider Polska. This means that basic shopping has increased by over PLN 0.50 in a week. It hasn't been this expensive for a long time. At the beginning of this year, identical purchases cost us just over PLN 109.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/poradnik-finansowy/fatalne-dane-ze-sklepow-tak-drogo-w-tym-roku-jeszcze-nie-bylo/y6szjw9
— “INVITE KWAŚNIEWSKI AND ASK WHY HE SUPPORTED CIMOSZEWICZ IN 2005” – MASTALEREK RESPONDS TO ACCUSATIONS – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/04/28/
— HOŁOWNIA BELIEVES HE WILL REPLACE TRZASKOWSKI AND BECOME THE COALITION'S CANDIDATE – ONET JOURNALISTS IN THE "STAN WYJĄTKOWY" PODCAST: “One might consider this a tactical game to snatch a few points from Trzaskowski, or to endear himself to the electorate hesitant about Platform [Civic Platform]. But Hołownia's actions against Trzaskowski have long exceeded the scale of a tactical operation. This is now a strategy – in the coming weeks, Hołownia will further intensify his attacks on Trzaskowski. We heard about his dreams from Hołownia's circle. And Hołownia dreams that Trzaskowski's poll numbers will drop to such a level that Donald Tusk will decide before the first round that the entire coalition must back one horse. And his name will be Szymon.”
— SZYMON TRULY BELIEVES THIS, AND I DO NOT RULE IT OUT – AUTHORS OF ONET'S "STAN WYJĄTKOWY" QUOTE THEIR INTERLOCUTOR: “Szymon truly believes this, and I do not rule it out. If Trzaskowski's poll numbers continue to fall and Tusk, a few to a dozen days before the first round, receives internal studies from the Civic Coalition's campaign team showing that Nawrocki will win the election, he may have no choice but to call for votes for Hołownia,” our interlocutor assures. In this sense, Hołownia, by shifting from attacks on Mentzen to attacks on Trzaskowski, is acting logically – he believes he will sink the Civic Coalition's candidate.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/stan-wyjatkowy-trzaskowski-i-holownia-walcza-na-noze-sikorski-rozsierdzil-dude/12t9f4k,79cfc278
— IF WE LET OURSELVES BE BLACKMAILED OUR ENTIRE LIVES AND VOTE WITH OUR NOSES HOLDING OUR NOSES AT WHOEVER HAPPENS TO HAVE BETTER POLL RATINGS, NOTHING WILL EVER CHANGE, WE WILL SPEND THREE-QUARTERS OF OUR SALARY ON A LOAN OR RENT FOR THE REST OF OUR LIVES – MAGDALENA BIEJAT IN A CONVERSATION WITH DOMINIKA WANTUCH IN GW: “I'm not reinventing the wheel here; the media describe how politicians act in the interests of these industries, for example, by introducing mechanisms for loan subsidies, no limits on bank margins, or weak regulation of the housing market. I've been saying this for a long time; as the only presidential candidate, I want to limit bank margins, and that's why I encourage voters with progressive views to vote for me. Because if we let ourselves be blackmailed our entire lives and vote with our noses holding our noses at whoever happens to have better poll ratings, nothing will ever change; we will spend three-quarters of our salary on a loan or rent for the rest of our lives.”
— I AM CONVINCED THAT NO ONE ASKS RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI OR SZYMON HOŁOWNIA HOW HIS CHILDREN FEEL WHEN DAD IS CONSTANTLY ABSENT, WHETHER HE DOES HOMEWORK WITH HIS CHILDREN AND COOKS THEM LUNCHES – SAYS BIEJAT IN A CONVERSATION WITH WANTUCH IN GW: “This is significant because I am convinced that no one asks Rafał Trzaskowski or Szymon Hołownia how his children feel when their dad is constantly absent, whether he does homework with his children and cooks them lunches. Meanwhile, I have heard such questions many times, and I will not pretend that these are easy and pleasant questions. But I will not pretend that I am omnipotent either. Regardless of whether one is a woman or a man, if one has children, one must face the fact that these children will suffer during the campaign. That's how it is, period. Being in politics, it's hard to achieve work-life balance, in which there is enough space for children and family as well.”
https://www.wysokieobcasy.pl/wysokie-obcasy/7,163229,31888378,magdalena-biejat-dla-wo-bije-sie-w-piers-lewica-przespala.html
— DUDAS'S SCANDALOUS SPEECH AT NAWROCKI'S CONVENTION. HE ANNOUNCES ELECTION MANIPULATION – AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “What PiS is doing now, and what Duda is doing now, is a continuation of constructing this line of defense in case of defeat. Duda is preparing Poland for a situation where Nawrocki loses, and Kaczyński will no longer be able to come to terms with it. Because this may be his last defeat, and PiS as a party will begin to fall apart. In Duda's case, readiness to leave honorably is a measure of maturity. Promises of post-election chaos made before the election are not only a measure of incredible immaturity. It is simply a presidential scandal.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31888495,100-dni-przed-koncem-swojej-kadencji-duda-juz-obiecuje-powyborczy.html
— PIS CONVENTION IN ŁÓDŹ VS. RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI'S RALLY IN POZNAŃ. 1:0 FOR KAROL NAWROCKI – JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Against the backdrop of Nawrocki's convention, Trzaskowski's rally paled. Sunday's duel of titans is 1:0 for the PiS candidate. Mainly thanks to Andrzej Duda. Nawrocki can be sure of reaching the second round today. The problem is that those who strengthened him before the first round, giving him recognition and identification, may turn out to be a burden in the second round. The outgoing president and the party that ceded power – this is not a winning team that guarantees the support of over 50 percent of Poles.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42191431-jacek-nizinkiewicz-konwencja-pis-w-lodzi-kontra-wiec-rafala-trzaskowskiego-w-poznaniu-1-0-dla-karola-nawrockiego
— THE DAY BEFORE NAWROCKI'S CONVENTION, A DRESS REHEARSAL TOOK PLACE IN ŁÓDŹ. BUT – AS WE HEAR FROM THE PIS CAMPAIGN TEAM CIRCLES – DURING THE REHEARSAL, THERE WAS NO MENTION THAT ANDRZEJ DUDA WAS TO APPEAR – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “Interestingly, the day before Nawrocki's convention, a dress rehearsal took place in Łódź. But – as we hear from circles close to the PiS campaign team – during the rehearsal, there was no mention that Andrzej Duda was to appear. No one mentioned it. This made the surprise in PiS even greater. As we hear, only a few people in the PiS campaign team might have known that the head of state was to speak during the convention. This group must have included campaign manager Paweł Szefernaker, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński, candidate Karol Nawrocki, and at most a few other insiders.”
— THE FACT IS THAT THE CONVENTION WAS A SUCCESS FOR PiS – CONTINUES GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “A person from PiS says after the convention: – It's like in tennis or ping-pong. If you play without flair, you have to play solidly and wait for the opponent's mistake. This mistake happened to Rafał Trzaskowski in Końskie. Then a wave started that submerged him and carried Nawrocki. We need to maintain this wave. Another: – This is a breakthrough against the rival. The fact is that the convention was a success for PiS. The strongest blow was President Andrzej Duda's speech, not Karol Nawrocki's.”
— A PERSON FROM PiS: – THE MESSAGE THAT WAS MEANT TO COME OUT OF THIS CONVENTION IS: WE ARE FIGHTING FOR VICTORY – GĄDEK AGAIN IN NEWSWEEK.
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/najwieksza-konwencja-nawrockiego-gwiazdora-trzymano-w-ukryciu/hgbw0qz
— PIS IS EMBOLDENED AFTER NAWROCKI'S CONVENTION. THEY ARE FIGHTING FOR VICTORY – AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “For several days, PiS campaign staff have been saying they are aiming for 'a three in front,' meaning thirty-something percent for Karol Nawrocki. Now, voices are heard that Nawrocki is even within reach of overtaking Rafał Trzaskowski in the first round. Sunday's convention of Karol Nawrocki in Łódź marked a new stage of the PiS candidate's campaign. (…) Now the candidate was decidedly better rhetorically prepared than in November – he changed his intonation, paused, spoke with a longer and deeper breath. And if we look not at the technique of speaking, but at the content, we see that the campaign staff have refined several bon mots. For example: 'instead of integration centers – deportation centers.'”
— PIS WANTS MOSTLY TO RIDICULE TRZASKOWSKI. TUSK IS THE THREATENING ONE. TRZASKOWSKI IS THE RIDICULOUS ONE – CONTINUES AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO: “During the convention, a film was shown repeatedly showing Tusk and Trzaskowski shaking hands. 'In the elections on May 18, a product of a political laboratory, composed of briefs and polls, and established for Donald Tusk, Rafał Trzaskowski, will collide, and opposite him will stand a man of flesh and blood, chosen by Poles and established for Poles,' said Nawrocki. A 'man of flesh and blood' can make mistakes, err, not know answers, appear stiff or awkward. That is: it's a way to lower the bar. Trzaskowski was supposed to be excellently prepared, professional, and practiced in campaign battles, yet he didn't shine during the debate in Końskie. And most importantly, he caused chaos around the debates. PiS wants mostly to ridicule Trzaskowski. Tusk is the threatening one. Trzaskowski is the ridiculous one.”
https://oko.press/pis-uskrzydlony-po-konwencji-nawrockiego-walczy-o-zwyciestwo-szesc-wnioskow
— UNANIMOUS VOTES IN THE COALITION – NAWROCKI HAS STEPPED UP HIS GAME, AT TIMES HE HAS THE RING OF A GOOD FORM DUDAS AT A RALLY. TRZASKOWSKI MAY BE CATCHING HIS BREATH AFTER KOŃSKIE, BUT HIS SPEECH (OSTACHOWICZ?) IS BORING PLATITUDES – TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK FROM MONEY.PL.
https://x.com/tzolciak/status/1916754817998835900
— BIRTHDAYS: Marek Biernacki, Jacek Piechota, Andrzej Szejna.
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