state of play: 04/26/2025

THE STATE OF PLAY: Stankiewicz: Trzaskowski Has Ambitions to Reshape the Political Scene, Zaremba: Braun a Useful Ally of Progressives

Łukasz Mężyk

— TRUMP AND ZELENSKY SPOKE AT ST. PETER'S BASILICA.

— MARSZALEK SEJMU SZYMON HOŁOWNIA, OPPONENT OF SMARTPHONES IN POLISH SCHOOLS – ANNA ZALEWSKA ON X. ANNA MARIA ŻUKOWSKA COMMENTED: SHE MANAGED IT:
https://x.com/AM_Zukowska/status/1916070838144467061

— THANKS TO STATE POLICY, THESE PEOPLE ENTERED THE LABOR MARKET ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. 60-70% OF REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE WORKED IN POLAND, ABOUT 20% IN GERMANY – SAYS ANNA KWIATKOWSKA FROM THE CENTER FOR EASTERN STUDIES, CO-AUTHOR OF THE PODCAST „GERMANY IN RUINS?” IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ELIZA OLCZYK IN RZ: “Because they were truly war refugees. And thanks to state policy, these people entered the labor market almost immediately. 60-70% of refugees from Ukraine worked in Poland, about 20% in Germany. And this means that something is wrong with their system. Now this is starting to change. Germany has realized that they cannot mass attract people into the social system, because it devastates it and also corrupts others. Therefore, they are starting to get their act together, and this is pleasing, except that the Polish state, Austria, Switzerland, and others around Germany, are paying for German thinking about migration and for the mistakes they have made over the last ten years”.

— GERMANY SENT REPORTS FROM HOSPITALS BY FAX DURING THE PANDEMIC? OUR CHILDREN LEARNED ONLINE, AND THEIRS NOT NECESSARILY, BECAUSE ACCESS WASN'T UNIVERSAL – KWIATKOWSKA CONTINUES WITH OLCZYK IN RZ: “Incidentally, I remember how they used to laugh at us and the Lithuanians for building gas terminals, because liquefied gas is very expensive, and Russia is such a reliable partner. Münchau further reminds them that they are afraid of the internet, that they missed the moment when they should have transitioned to digital services. Did you know that during the pandemic they sent hospital reports to each other by fax? Our children learned online, and theirs not necessarily, because access wasn't everywhere”.
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art42169331-wspolautorka-podcastu-niemcy-w-ruinie-praca-ukraincow-w-polsce-budzi-zachwyt-afd

— IT IS CHARACTERISTIC THAT POLAND HAS NOT HAD A SINGLE LIBERAL PRESIDENT TO DATE – ALL SUCH CANDIDATES WERE DEFEATED, IF TRZASKOWSKI WINS, IT WILL BE AN EXCEPTION – ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN NEWSWEEK: “It is characteristic that Poland has not had a single liberal president to date – all such candidates were defeated (Olechowski, Tusk, or Trzaskowski himself five years ago). The majority of presidents were conservative (Wałęsa, Kaczyński, Komorowski, Duda). An exception is the left-wing Aleksander Kwaśniewski, who, however, pragmatically managed relations with the Church during his presidency and did not initiate ideological wars. If Trzaskowski wins, it will be an exception”.

— CONSERVATIVES HAVE A BLOCKING MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT, IT'S NOT AN ACCIDENT – THESE ARE SIMPLY SOCIAL MOODS – STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “However, this does not mean that he, as the first liberal president in the Third Republic, free from ties to the Church, will carry out a worldview revolution. Yes, he himself holds such views and likely desires such a revolution deep down. The snag is that he will not get laws from the Sejm that outline such a revolution – because the coalition itself is deeply riddled with ideological divisions. Even if he wrote such laws himself, he would not find support for them. The Polish People's Party (PSL) does not agree to a significant liberalization of abortion, nor to partnership unions, nor to a serious infringement on the Church's dominion. The fact that conservatives have a blocking majority in the Sejm is not an accident – these are simply social moods”.

— IN THE EVENT OF VICTORY, THE FIRST TWO YEARS – UNTIL THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN 2027 – TRZASKOWSKI WILL BE OCCUPIED WITH CLEARING STATE INSTITUTIONS OF PIS AND DUDY PEOPLE – STILL STANKIEWICZ IN NEWSWEEK: “In the event of victory, the first two years – until the parliamentary elections in 2027 – Trzaskowski will be occupied with clearing state institutions of PiS and Duda's people. On this matter, the coalition is quite united – it will carry out changes in the justice system, regulating the status of neo-judges, removing Ziobro's people from the National Council of the Judiciary, Duda's people from the Supreme Court, and Kaczyński's people from the Constitutional Tribunal. Rebuilding the legal order is one of the most important challenges for the ruling camp – but with their own president, it is possible, whereas with a presidency of Nawrocki or Mentzen, it will not be possible”.

— TRZASKOWSKI HAS AMBITIONS TO RESTRUCTURE THE POLITICAL SCENE IN SUCH A WAY AS TO LIQUIDATE THE SIMPLE DIVISION BETWEEN PLATFORM AND PIS – CLAIMS STANKIEWICZ IN NEWSWEEK: “Furthermore, it should be remembered that Trzaskowski has ambitions to restructure the political scene in such a way as to liquidate the simple division between Platforma and PiS. After the lost elections in 2020, he distanced himself from Platforma and negotiated the formation of a new party with Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz. It didn't work out then – but then he wasn't president”.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/podstawowy-cel-trzaskowskiego-po-zwyciestwie-wyslac-kaczynskiego-na-emeryture/j975y6c,452ad802

— PIS WANTS TO BE LIKE TRUMP. TO RETURN TO POWER AFTER DEFEAT – AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “PiS is blindly fixated on Trump. It wants to be like Trump. To return to power after defeat. It wants its own media, to control universities, to take over special services, to subordinate the prosecutor's office and courts. Trump is testing in practice how far he can go, how weak the safeguards of democracy are. (…) So, Dear Reader, may you not be disappointed with your vote, vote so that it is not worse here than it was for two terms under PiS”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31885450,pis-jest-w-trumpa-tepo-zapatrzony-chce-byc-jak-trump-powrocic.html

— ONE POLL DOES NOT MAKE A SPRING. BUT PIS HAS REASONS TO BE PLEASED AFTER A SURVEY IN WHICH IT WINS AGAINST KO – MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “A new poll gave PiS a minimal advantage over KO and caused political stir. Although it is only a moment, it can decide moods before an important campaign weekend. And time to its end is quickly running out”.

— “SUPER SUNDAY” WITH A MAJOR PIS EVENT AND A DEBATE ORGANIZED BY “SUPER EXPRESS” ON MONDAY JUST BEFORE MAY 1ST HOLIDAY MAY CONSTITUTE THE LAST STRONG ACCENTS BEFORE A TEMPORARY LULL IN POLITICAL EMOTIONS – KOLANKO CONTINUES IN RZ: “Everything indicates that the presidential campaign will enter another, more intense phase right after the May weekend. “Super Sunday” with a major PiS event and a debate organized by “Super Express” on Monday just before the May 1st holiday may constitute the last strong accents before a temporary lull in political emotions. Because although many Poles are already starting to plan barbecues and pack for May 1st trips, it doesn't mean that what happens just before the long weekend doesn't matter. In such a shortened campaign, every impulse counts”.
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42180381-michal-kolanko-jeden-sondaz-wiosny-nie-czyni-ale-pis-ma-powody-do-zadowolenia-po-badaniu-w-ktorym-wygrywa-z-ko

— BRAUN IN EVERY SUCH SITUATION CHOOSES EXTREME BRUTALITY, WHICH SERVES THE OTHER SIDE. HE IS A USEFUL ALLY OF PROGRESSIVES – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “This is not even known after MEP and presidential candidate Grzegorz Braun politicized it further, trying to “detain” a doctor, Gizela Jagielska, in the hospital who administered a lethal injection to the child's heart. Braun in every such situation chooses extreme brutality, which serves the other side. He is a useful ally of progressives. After his action, the discussion about violence against the doctor is intended to replace the discussion about abortion. It is not conservative candidates who can now raise the alarm, but the left-wing presidential candidate Magdalena Biejat, who describes Dr. Jagielska as a “heroine of everyday life,” but also as a victim of an anti-feminist fanatic”.

— WE ARE CERTAINLY NOT DEALING WITH A “CLUMP OF CELLS,” AS PROPONENTS OF LEGALIZING THIS “PROCEDURE” REPEAT. A NINE-MONTH-OLD CHILD CAPABLE OF INDEPENDENT LIFE WAS KILLED BY INJECTION – ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZ: “The second reason, besides the political context, why I am speaking out, is the impression that new paths are being forged in the debate about terminating pregnancies, which seemed to be ritualized once and for all. The story from Oleśnica is peculiar in that in this particular case, we are certainly not dealing with a “clump of cells,” as proponents of legalizing this “procedure” repeat. A nine-month-old child capable of independent life was killed by injection, just before birth”.

— HER PSYCHOLOGICAL BREAKDOWN IS NOT MADE UP, AS SHE WAS BRIEFLY ADMITTED TO A LOCKED PSYCHIATRIC WARD. SO WE ARE PROBABLY NOT DEALING WITH A CLASSIC CASE OF AN “ABORTION MACHINE” HERE – ZAREMBA STILL IN RZ: “'Wyborcza's' report seems to blame the doctors, based on the mother's account. Especially the first doctor caring for her pregnancy, who allegedly reassured her for a long time that it was “a mildest form of defect.” At Professor Sieroszewski's clinic, where she stayed for three days, the patient also reportedly did not receive conclusive information. She complains about dismissive treatment, which Sieroszewski denies. Her psychological breakdown is not made up, as she was briefly admitted to a locked psychiatric ward. So we are probably not dealing with a classic case of an “abortion machine” here, as Robert Mazurek says”.

— THE VISION OF KILLING A CHILD THAT LOOKS LIKE A NEWBORN CAPABLE OF INDEPENDENT LIFE ALSO SEEMS CRUEL TO MANY PEOPLE FAR FROM CONSERVATISM – ZAREMBA STILL IN RZ: “Now suddenly the roles have reversed. Internet forums have been flooded with the slogan “Hell for children,” sometimes adorned with a red lightning bolt. The vision of killing a child that looks like a newborn capable of independent life also seems cruel to many people far from conservatism”.
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art42169621-zmiana-akcentow-w-aborcyjnym-sporze

— GRZEGORZ BRAUN – A CYNICAL CRUSADER IS INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS – KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “If not for the death of Pope Francis, Grzegorz Braun's intrusion into the hospital in Oleśnica would still be the most popular topic in the media. What next? Next time will he break into the headquarters of some LGBT organization, brandishing Szczerbiec? If he is not held accountable, the probability that he will resort to violence again increases. And also – that his imitators will appear”.
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2025/04/24/grzegorz-braun-cyniczny-krzyzowiec-jest-coraz-bardziej-niebezpieczny/

— TWO WOODEN CANDIDATES WILL BE THE FACES OF A PLEBISCITE, WHICH, AS USUAL, WILL BE THE SECOND ROUND OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN POLAND – CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Two wooden candidates will be the faces of a plebiscite, which, as usual, will be the second round of presidential elections in Poland. Nawrocki, an anti-liberal, anti-EU, right-wing radical himself, was invited to the role of the PiS candidate by a less radical Kaczyński (in the second round, the votes of Mentzen, Braun, and Confederation voters are worth a mass, even a black one), but it is not at all certain whether he will break free from this patronage as president”.

— SIKORSKI AND TUSK ARE A LESSER EVIL FOR ME THAN CZARNEK AND MENTZEN, WHO WILL GOVERN SOONER OR LATER – MICHALSKI CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “Given such a choice, I prefer Trzaskowski, because Sikorski and Tusk are a lesser evil for me than Czarnek and Mentzen, who will govern sooner or later (from where? leading Poland in what direction?), if Kaczyński succeeds in blocking the state through the presidency and forcing the government into drift (without laws, with a few key institutions used to destabilize everything)”.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-najpiekniejsze-jest-centrum-ktorego-nie-ma,nId,21397773

— KRZYSZTOF STANOWSKI: An unusual prize has just been auctioned: 41,000 PLN for a hospice in Puck for being a member of my election staff during the TVP debate, which will take place on May 12th. The winner can enter with me, see everything from the inside, meet other candidates.
https://x.com/K_Stanowski/status/1915839429744222633

— BIRTHDAYS: Sławomir Nitras (52), Krzysztof Stanisław Kozłowski, Grzegorz Zasępa, Tadeusz Słobodzianek, Zofia Ławrynowicz, Cezary Grabarczyk. SUNDAY: Stanisław Dziwisz, Magdalena Kopka, Paweł Kasprzyk, Zbigniew Babalski, Andrzej Barcikowski, Piotr Zychowicz.


Łukasz Mężyk