state of play: 04/19/2025
— 82 YEARS AGO, THE FIRST WARSAW UPRISING BROKE OUT – THE WARSAW GHETTO UPRISING:
https://polin.pl/pl/powstanie-w-getcie-warszawskim
— RAFAŁ BRZOSKA LEAVES THE DEREGULATION TEAM. HE MAKES A SERIOUS ACCUSATION – BUSINESS INSIDER: “He believes that ‘we are merely recipients of regulations imposed by Brussels, which limit our competitiveness.’ As an example, he cited the transfer pricing mechanism, which allows foreign corporations to move profits out of the country, thereby reducing the tax base in Poland. ‘Deregulation is also intended, among other things, to eliminate this phenomenon,’ Brzoska emphasized. In his opinion, the biggest ‘legal monster’ crippling entrepreneurs and ordinary taxpayers is the lack of presumption of innocence for taxpayers when facing the state apparatus. ‘Please note that in criminal law, the prosecutor must prove that a prohibited act has been committed by any criminal, even if they have killed or raped, and in some cases, that they did so intentionally. And what about the taxpayer? It is they who must prove their innocence, that the error they made was not intentional,’ pointed out the head of InPost.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/prawo/rafal-brzoska-odchodzi-z-zespolu-ds-deregulacji-stawia-powazny-zarzut/f3cdb3y
— FOR SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DESIRE IN PUBLIC MEDIA TO PROVE THAT EVERYTHING SHOULD BE PLOWED OVER AND WE SHOULDN'T PRETEND TO HAVE PUBLIC MEDIA – PATRYK SŁOWIK: Alternatively, they could show sports, art, but under no circumstances should they deal with politics.
https://x.com/PatrykSlowik/status/1913525600859402649
— IS THIS SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING THE DYNAMICS OF THE RACE? A LITTLE, WITHOUT EXAGGERATION – MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI: Regarding the polls after the debates, if we don't focus on specific numbers, we have a general consensus among the polls: Trzaskowski and Mentzen have dropped, Nawrocki is stable, Zandberg, Hołownia, and Biejat have gained. Is this significantly changing the dynamics of the race? A little, without exaggeration.
https://x.com/synczeslawa/status/1913196919913914489
— I SPENT TIME IN PRE-HOLIDAY STORE QUEUES, AND PEOPLE ONLY TALK ABOUT ONE THING: IT'S EXPENSIVE! – JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ: No discussions about debates, abortion, Michał Kamiński, elections, candidates, politicians, politics, only high prices in stores, lower pensions, and general grumbling that it's expensive.
https://x.com/JNizinkiewicz/status/1913524979083157755
— OUR CIRCLE PROPOSED SELECTING A SINGLE CANDIDATE FROM THE COALITION OF 15 X FOR THE OFFICE OF PRESIDENT. TODAY WE WOULD BE IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SITUATION – PIOTR ZGORZELSKI: I would like to remind you that it was our circle that proposed selecting a single candidate from the Coalition of 15 X for the office of President. Today, we would be in a completely different situation, not only in terms of polls but also in terms of the fight for victory.
https://x.com/PZgorzelskiP/status/1913285239717367948
— KACZYŃSKI HUNG NAWROCKI'S BANNER ON HIS FENCE – FAKT: https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/jaroslaw-kaczynski-spelnil-zapowiedz-zmiana-na-posesji-polityka/vje2mbb
— "WITH RAFAL" AGAINST TRZASKOWSKI. MANIPULATIONS AND FABRICATIONS SURROUNDING HIS LONG-FORM INTERVIEW – WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “These are not mere jokes and maliciousness. PiS propaganda (and its allies from Konfederacja, and even the Left and Poland 2050) is testing what can most painfully hit Trzaskowski. Now the book has become the target. Within a few days, thanks to its replication online and persistent repetition of manipulations, much has already been achieved. A decent interview, where Trzaskowski honestly talks about his life and politics, is being turned into a caricature.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31863107,rafalem-w-trzaskowskiego-manipulacje-i-zmyslenia-wokol-jego.html
— AFTER THE DEBATE IN KOŃSKIE, OUR POLITICS HAS BECOME A BIT DIFFERENT. DURING THE DEBATE IN KOŃSKIE, THE ALGORITHMS IN A SENSE RESET THEMSELVES. THEY ABANDONED PREVIOUS PATTERNS AND BEGAN TO BEHAVE IN A NEW WAY – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “In a simplification, one can say that the enormous interest in the debate day in Końskie (according to Res Futura, it was the most emotionally charged event in social media in the history of Polish politics) somewhat de-hermeticized the algorithms. And it de-hermeticized our reality. This doesn't mean we are not still subject to these algorithms, but it has become clear that they not only organize the world of social media – which, by the way, sometimes detaches itself from reality – but they sometimes ‘recalibrate’ themselves during events that cause such an emotional tsunami as debates. After such a recalibration, nothing will be the same as before.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art42138661-michal-szuldrzynski-po-debacie-w-konskich-nasza-polityka-stala-sie-troche-inna
— A CERTAIN JOURNALIST TOLD ME HOW HIS FRIENDS, WHO GET THEIR INFORMATION FROM TVN, TVP INFO, OR “NEWSWEEK,” SUDDENLY DISCOVERED THAT THIS NAWROCKI IS NOT SUCH A “DULL OX” AS HE WAS PORTRAYED IN THOSE MEDIA – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “It seems that this has led to at least a partial opening of political bubbles. A certain journalist told me how his friends, who get their information from TVN, TVP Info, or ‘Newsweek,’ suddenly discovered that this Nawrocki is not such a ‘dull ox’ as he was portrayed in those media. I myself have seen similar posts on various internet forums.”
— NAWROCKI THEREFORE PRESENTS HIMSELF MORE SYMPATHETICALLY THAN BEFORE. JUST IN TIME. AND WE DON'T KNOW AT ALL IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH – PIOTR ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “Nawrocki therefore presents himself more sympathetically than before – just in time. And we don't know at all if this will be enough for his fight with the candidate of the ruling camp to be an even match. In many matters, he simply represents the conservative side in a civilizational, largely global war, such as when he demands the rupture of the migration pact or the non-application of the Green Deal.”
— THIS SMELLS OF UGLY PRACTICES OF NATIONALIST AND PRO-RUSSIAN CIRCLES, WHICH SPREAD, BUT ALWAYS WITHOUT SPECIFICS, RUMORS ABOUT “UKRAINIAN PRIVILEGES” – WRITES ZAREMBA: “If Nawrocki repeats, and he did so very emphatically in Kanal Zero, that Poles should always be first in queues for public services, it smells of the ugly practices of nationalist and pro-Russian circles, which spread, but always without specifics, rumors about ‘Ukrainian privileges.’ There is no problem with Ukrainians taking places from Polish children in schools. With the demographic decline, this is an imagined accusation.”
— A RIGHT-WING PRESIDENT WITHOUT IDEAS AND VISION WILL BE TWICE DOOMED TO A SERIES OF FAILURES – ZAREMBA FURTHER IN INTERIA: “Jacek Kurski announces that Nawrocki's distance from the party weakens him in the first round, but gives him greater chances in the second, when it will be necessary to attract various electorates. If he wins, he is doomed to total war with the ruling coalition (unless it overturns such elections). A war where all tactics will be allowed. But at the same time, the world is becoming increasingly complex and less safe. A right-wing president without ideas and vision will be twice doomed to a series of failures.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-moje-pytania-do-nowego-karola-nawrockiego,nId,21396560
— HOŁOWNIA'S REBELLION SHOULD HAVE BEEN FORESEEN BY TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN TEAM. IT RESULTED IN A QUARREL WITHIN THE COALITION, WHICH SIMPLY DAMAGES THE KO CANDIDATE – DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Trzaskowski's campaign team should have foreseen Hołownia's rebellion. It resulted in a quarrel within the coalition, which simply damages the KO candidate. And that is why the entire operation was a mistake, and furthermore, the campaign team lost control of the event itself. In a panic, they announced 1.5 hours before the start that everyone could attend the debate then.”
— THE FORMAL ASPECT, HOWEVER, HAS LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE BECAUSE THERE IS NO REIMBURSEMENT FOR PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN EXPENSES – WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER IN GW: “The formal aspect, however, has little significance because there is no reimbursement for presidential campaign expenses. The candidate invited opponents, some came, and that's it. I don't think there will be any legal complications arising from this.”
— STANOWSKI IS MERELY A SUPPORT FOR NAWROCKI AND MENTZEN, BUT WHAT OF IT: ONE MUST ADMIT HE HIT ACCURATELY – WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER IN GW: “Since Trzaskowski asked for it and had the debate, Stanowski also wants to debate with selected people during peak viewership. Yes, Stanowski is merely a support for Nawrocki and Mentzen, but what of it: one must admit he hit accurately. And if TVP agrees, all candidates will soon flock and ask for the same thing.”
— IT IS NOT WITHOUT REASON THAT IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE DEBATE IN KOŃSKIE, DONALD TUSK'S ACCOUNT ON X WAS SILENT – WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER IN GW: “It is not without reason that immediately after the debate in Końskie, Donald Tusk's account on X was silent. Only after some time did a post appear, but it was not triumphant. The Prime Minister believes that the campaign team bungled the matter. On Tuesday, he appealed to the coalition partners not to ‘overreach’ during the upcoming presidential campaign and not to lead to conflicts that could jeopardize future government cooperation.”
— FROM HOŁOWNIA'S PERSPECTIVE, PARTICIPATING IN ALL DEBATES POSSIBLE IS A JUST STRATEGY BECAUSE THE MARSHAL OF THE SEJM HAS NOTHING TO LOSE – WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER: “Hołownia took on the main burden and did very well, because debates are his domain. From the perspective of the leader of Poland 2050, participating in all debates possible is a just strategy because the Marshal of the Sejm has nothing to lose. And his presence in Republika benefits the entire ruling coalition. PiS voters, accustomed to their information bubble, suddenly experienced cognitive dissonance: there is a world other than the one created by Sakiewicz.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31863107,wielowieyska-nie-bez-powodu-zaraz-po-debacie-w-konskich-na.htmlgdy-prokuratura-sie-nie-spieszy-to-obajtek.html
— SOME OF HIS RIVALS WERE IN GOOD FORM, E.G., KAROL NAWROCKI. DURING THE DEBATE, IT WAS VISIBLE HOW HE HAD IMPROVED, HOW MUCH MORE EFFICIENTLY HE SPOKE, HOW OBVIOUSLY HE WAS – PROF. PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA IN A CONVERSATION WITH AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “He performed poorly, was not in his best form. He didn't make any fatal mistakes, but some of his rivals were in good form, e.g., Karol Nawrocki. During the debate, it was visible how he had improved, how much more efficiently he spoke, how obviously he was performing. A great improvement is evident. Szymon Hołownia has extensive experience in such situations, and it was confirmed in all these debates. Magdalena Biejat flashed the rainbow flag…”
— TRZASKOWSKI CERTAINLY REGRESSED BY WHOLE WEEKS WITH THIS PERFORMANCE – SADURA FURTHER WITH KUBLIK IN GW: “Everyone has the right to have a bad day. It’s worse when you don't hit your form for the main event. Trzaskowski certainly regressed by whole weeks with this performance. A lot of work will need to be redone.”
— CONSIDERING NAWROCKI'S BETTER FORM, IT SEEMS TO ME THAT YES – SADURA TO KUBLIK'S QUESTION WHETHER MENTZEN HAS RUINED HIS CHANCES OF REACHING THE SECOND ROUND.
— TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN TEAM WAS ALREADY CHILLING CHAMPAGNE; THEY JUST DIDN'T KNOW WHO TRZASKOWSKI WOULD DEFEAT IN THE SECOND ROUND. THE DEBATES HAVE SHUFFLED EVERYTHING – SADURA FURTHER WITH KUBLIK: “Trzaskowski's campaign team was already chilling champagne; they just didn't know who Trzaskowski would defeat in the second round. The debates have shuffled everything. Their popularity is an interesting phenomenon. We are supposedly discouraged by politics because negative emotions dominate, we hate politicians. But we love to hate them, and we love it more and more, so much so that we are willing to endure two, three, or even four hours in front of the screen.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31867466,prof-przemyslaw-sadura-rzadzaca-koalicja-nie-utrzymalaby-obecnie.html
— KRZYSZTOF BOSAK RECOMMENDS A RADIO COMMENTARY IN THE OLD STYLE: Do you like radio commentaries in the old style? Or perhaps you don’t know them at all? I do, and recently, since radio stations have been commercially “formatted” (sterilized?), I often miss them. I recommend yesterday's commentary by Piotr Witt, an art historian, publicist, and Parisian, on the situation in France and the astonishingly contradictory migration policy of that country for a Pole (an older-generation Pole). In total, less than 10 minutes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4rclsJZ4yk
— BIRTHDAYS: Barbara Labuda turns 79, Małgorzata Sekuła-Szmajdzińska, Iwona Kutyna. SUNDAY: Piotr Gliński turns 71, Andrzej Gałażewski. MONDAY: Andrzej Mietkowski, Piotr Pałka, Artur Gierada.
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12/19/2025
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