state of play: 04/16/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Hunters Unpunished, Radio Wnet Grows Like Republika, Everything Shifts Right, Mentzen Still at 20% in OGB Poll

Łukasz Mężyk

— ANDRZEJ POCZOBUT TURNS 53 TODAY, HAVING ALREADY SPENT 4 YEARS IN THE PRISON OF THE BELARUSIAN REGIME.

— A DEATH TRAP ON THE BORDER OF THE LAW. WE REVEAL HOW HUNTERS ARE SHOOTING BIRDS RIGHT NEXT TO A NATIONAL PARK – KATARZYNA KOJZAR IN OKO.PRESS: "They position themselves near the border of the Ujście Warty National Park, facing the directorate building. The cannonade of shots causes birds in the park's buffer zone to take flight. Some fall dead to the ground, others are injured. (...) 'The hunting lobby is doing well here,' wrote park employees of Ujście Warty National Park in a message to OKO.press. They wish to remain anonymous. 'The situation in the park is already tense. But we don't want to idly watch birds being killed in the buffer zone,' they add." https://oko.press/ujscie-warty-polowania-na-ptaki-w-otulinie

— WHY IS RADIO WNET GAINING? 'WE ARE LIKE REPUBLIKA' – WIRTUALNE MEDIA: "Radio Wnet is growing in listenership, beating the biggest radio stations in Poland on YouTube and has over 5,000 supporters on Patronite. – We are beneficiaries of changes in public media, similar to Republika in the television market – indicates the station's founder, Krzysztof Skowroński. Radio Wnet's listenership is growing in Warsaw. According to the latest Radio Track survey results from September 2024 to February 2025, the station recorded a 2.9% market share. Compared to the analogous period a year earlier, this is an increase of 1.6 percentage points, or 123%. In Wrocław during this period, there was an increase from 0.9% to 2.7%, and in Krakow – from 1.2% to 1.7%." https://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/artykul/radio-wnet-krzysztof-skowronski-polskie-radio-wyniki-sluchalnosci-patronite

— FOR THE FIRST TIME, THERE WILL BE TWO EXIT POLLS – REPUBLIKA WILL HAVE ITS OWN, SEPARATE FROM IPSOS FOR THREE TELEVISION STATIONS FROM KOŃSKIE: https://tvrepublika.pl/Polityka/Republika-szykuje-wlasny-Exit-Poll/186689 — TRZASKOWSKI 35.5 (-3.2) – OGB POLL: NAWROCKI 29.5 (-1) MENTZEN 20.5 (-1) BRAUN 5 (+2.5) HOŁOWNIA 3.4 BIEJAT 2 ZANDBERG 2 STANOWSKI 1 https://x.com/OGB_Pro/status/1912400394304598338

— THE ENTIRE 'AI ACT', WHICH WAS PASSED HASTILY – INTO THE BIN. ETS2 – COMPLETE REFORMATTING. A SMALL COMPANY MUST REPORT CO2 EMISSIONS FOR A LARGE COMPANY SO THAT THE LARGE ONE CAN BOAST ABOUT REDUCING EMISSIONS – RAFAŁ BRZOSKA IN A CONVERSATION WITH MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON TELEWIZJA WPOLSCE24: "The entire 'AI Act', which was passed hastily – into the bin. ETS2 – complete reformatting. A small company must report CO2 emissions for a large company so that the large one can boast about reducing emissions. Absurd, complete absurdity. Today we see that officials and bureaucrats in Brussels do not want change. And we, as member states, must say in Brussels: 'Stop. Dear officials, you will not deregulate yourselves. We, as taxpayers to the European Union's treasury, should deregulate bureaucracy, including in Brussels.' And this must happen, because if not, we will lose." https://wpolityce.pl/gospodarka/726778-brzoska-jezeli-nie-nadamy-tonu-zmianom-w-europie-przegramy

— 'PLATFORMA GOT SCARED OF ITS OWN SET-UP'. BOSAK ON FRIDAY'S DEBATE – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/04/16

— TUSK UNNECESSARILY DRENCHED IT WITH TRUMP'S SAUCE, IN HIS LANGUAGE. I HAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE VOTERS EXPECT PRUDENCE AND BALANCE FROM POLITICIANS IN THESE DIFFICULT TIMES – PIOTR SKWIROWSKI IN RZ: "Tusk announced all this. Only – maybe it was just my impression, maybe I didn't understand everything, or maybe he didn't say everything – he unnecessarily drenched it with Trump's sauce, in his language. I have the impression that a significant part of the voters expect prudence, balance, suppression of fears, and calm explanation of what is happening in the world from politicians in these difficult times, not saber-rattling and proclaiming more or less nationalist slogans. Trump is not a good role model." https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art42124861-tusk-odpowiada-na-trumpa-czy-mowi-trumpem

— TUSK IS CLEARLY SHIFTING RIGHT, THE CAMPAIGN HAS MOVED TO THE NATIONALIST SIDE, EVERYONE – BOTH THE GOVERNMENT AND THE OPPOSITION – IS SAYING: NATION, NATION, NATION – MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI ON HIS YOUTUBE CHANNEL: The Prime Minister announces national nationalism in the economy, I announce that in Poland, one coffin already rules: that of Roman Dmowski. I should go to his monument and announce it. Nawrocki, Tusk, everyone talks about nationalism. I met PO voters today and my colleague asked me why there is less enthusiasm today than even a week ago. I replied: If we don't talk about two towers, PiS gains momentum. No one asked Nawrocki if he would pardon Kaczyński, and his very answer would be an event. Everything is starting to shift towards PiS because the topic of scandals has disappeared. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4OXrskZeDo

— THE QUESTION IS WHETHER PIS VOTERS THINK IN IMAGES OR ARE FOCUSED ON DETAILS. IN MY OPINION, THEY THINK IN IMAGES, SO NAWROCKI HAS A CHANCE TO GAIN MORE SUPPORT THAN BEFORE IN THE NEAR FUTURE – HEAD OF CBOS PROF. EWA MARCINIAK IN A CONVERSATION WITH AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: "Moreover, I believe that Nawrocki, looking at his personal context, his personal competencies, including those related to public speaking, was better in debates than in rally speeches. He spoke slower, so it wasn't 'puci' anymore, but 'płcie'. At rallies, his speeches are clearly of lower quality. In the overall picture, Nawrocki handled himself well. And this can be reassuring for both the person who elected him and for the entire environment, that he didn't make any major blunders that could significantly lower his political position in these elections. However, if you look at it analytically, there is completely unrealistic economic thinking about the economy, for example, promises of quick price reductions for electricity. For a careful analyst, it's like tales from the moss and fern. But the question is whether PiS voters think in images or are focused on details. In my opinion, they think in images, so Nawrocki has a chance to gain more support than before in the near future." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31859280,prof-ewa-marciniak-chcemy-wiedziec-jakimi-ludzmi-sa-kandydatki.html

— BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Poczobut, Piotr Zientarski, Dawid Dziama, Karina Kostrzewa Dowgielewicz.


Łukasz Mężyk