state of play: 04/15/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Hołownia Wins Skirmishes, But What's His Goal? Szubartowicz: Coalition Attacks – A Longing for PiS? Braun, Wiernikowska, and Vendace at the Kanał Zero Afterparty

Łukasz Mężyk

— YOU CAN VOTE FOR EXENE IN THE GW READERS' POLL FOR PERSON OF THE YEAR: https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31838819,12-wspanialych-kto-zostanie-czlowiekiem-roku-czytelnikow-wyborczej.html

— 52-42-6 (undecided) – TRZASKOWSKI-NAWROCKI SECOND ROUND ACCORDING TO OPINIA24 FOR RADIO ZET. 

— 50-43-7 – TRZASKOWSKI-MENTZEN SECOND ROUND ACCORDING TO OPINIA24.

— AT THE KANAŁ ZERO AFTERPARTY, GRZEGORZ BRAUN CLAIMED IN A CONVERSATION WITH THE COOK THAT VENDACE ARE POLISH SHRIMP:
https://x.com/Palucki_B/status/1911909136364712370

— MARIA WIERNIKOWSKA BROUGHT VENDACE TO BRAUN ON KANAŁ ZERO, BRAUN TO SENYSZYN: I BOW TO YOU, PROFESSOR:
https://x.com/OficjalneZero/status/1911915003390632365

— DURING THE YOUTUBE BROADCAST, KANAŁ ZERO SET LIVE VIEWERSHIP RECORDS WITH 332 THOUSAND, AND REPUBLIKA WITH 130 THOUSAND AT THAT MOMENT.

— TV VIEWERSHIP YESTERDAY:
Republika 12.3
TVP2 7.1
TVP1 6.4
Polsat 6.3
TVN24 6.1

— HOŁOWNIA LEVERAGES HIS YEARS OF TELEVISION EXPERIENCE AND SHOWS GREAT EASE DURING DEBATES – AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK AND NATALIA SAWKA IN OKO.PRESS: "The Poland 2050 candidate seems unfazed by polls giving him only a few percent support. He leverages his years of television experience and shows great ease during debates. Sometimes he strikes a personal tone, for example, praising his wife – Urszula Brzezińska-Hołownia. 'My wife is in the air right now, defending the Republic. I love you and I hope you return safely today.' He brought with him a 'gadget bag,' into which he packed a photo of Tusk with Putin, which Sławomir Mentzen handed him."

— BUT DO TOP STUDENTS WIN ELECTIONS? HOŁOWNIA WINS INDIVIDUAL SKIRMISHES, BUT IT'S STILL HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHAT HE'S AIMING FOR – SZCZĘŚNIAK AND SAWKA CONTINUE IN OKO.PRESS.

— NAWROCKI GIVES THE IMPRESSION OF READING SPEECHES FROM AN INVISIBLE PROMPTER, BUT COMPARED TO MENTZEN, NAWROCKI INITIALLY APPEARED NATURAL, CONFIDENT, AND WELL-PREPARED – SZCZĘŚNIAK AND SAWKA CONTINUE IN OKO.PRESS: "The PiS candidate is in a comfortable position where he can only gain from debates. His relatively weak support (around 22 percent) is unlikely to drop further. Nawrocki usually lacks naturalness, giving the impression of reading speeches from an invisible prompter. However, this time he had Mentzen next to him. And against that backdrop, Nawrocki initially seemed natural, confident, and well-prepared."
https://oko.press/zwyciezcy-i-przegrani-debaty-w-republice

— THE FOURTH CANDIDATE – SZYMON HOŁOWNIA – CAN BE MOST SATISFIED AFTER THE DEBATE ON TELEWIZJA REPUBLIKA – ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: "The fourth candidate – Szymon Hołownia – can be most satisfied after the debate on Telewizja Republika. Just when it seemed his campaign was heading for disaster, and some polls suggested he might soon be fighting not for third place with Sławomir Mentzen, but for fourth with Magdalena Biejat, the three presidential debates provided him with a lifeline. It's evident that Hołownia can manage stress in a debate setting. He can cite facts to emphasize his substantive approach (like when he listed railway connections that PiS failed to launch despite promises), and when necessary, he can attack, but he avoids excessive aggression, which usually makes a bad impression on viewers."

— FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THIS CAMPAIGN, TRZASKOWSKI FOUND HIMSELF IN DEEP DEFENSE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER HE WILL BE ABLE TO COUNTER-ATTACK – BARTKIEWICZ CONTINUES IN RZ: "He couldn't respond to the attacks and also allowed Hołownia to shine, who in the first instance could be taking percentage points precisely from the Civic Coalition candidate. As a result, for the first time in this campaign, he found himself in deep defense. The question is whether he will be able to counter-attack." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42121091-artur-bartkiewicz-debaty-nie-sluza-liderom-sondazy-jeden-wyrazny-zwyciezca

— HOŁOWNIA SHOWED WHAT THE WORLD OF POLITICS COULD LOOK LIKE WITHOUT PLATFORMA OBYWATELSKA – MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: "Monday's debate on TV Republika also offered a glimpse into an alternative world where PO doesn't exist, Szymon Hołownia is the leader, and the left is represented by Adrian Zandberg and Joanna Senyszyn. This debate didn't change the course of the campaign, but since Friday, it has not been going the way the Civic Coalition had hoped."
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42119651-michal-kolanko-debata-w-republice-nie-zmienila-biegu-kampanii-holownia-z-tarcza-to-zle-wiesci-dla-obozu-ko
— FOR NOW, WE ARE OBSERVING SHALLOWNESS, TABLOIDIZATION, AND AN ANTI-LIBERAL LEFT-RIGHT-MEDIA ALLIANCE – PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: "The attacks on the current mayor of Warsaw stem from the fact that he is a real representative of the liberal mainstream in Poland. And the liberal mainstream – a trend observed in the West – is currently under attack from the left-right horseshoe of extremists, as well as from the majority of media, meaning those with a progressive leaning. This anti-liberal wave most often arises from resentment. The right hates 'liberals' for their love of freedom. The young left, because it itself struggles with freedom (not only from political correctness) and sides with a centrally planned economy. And the media – perhaps out of contrariness to the older generation, which greatly valued taking responsibility for words and actions, while today the trend is the opposite."

— BY OBSERVING THE CAMPAIGN MOOD AND THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN COALITION PARTNERS, ONE CAN CONCLUDE THAT THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAS BEGUN TO LONG FOR THE RETURN OF PiS RULE – SZUBARTOWICZ'S CONCLUSION.


Łukasz Mężyk