state of play: 04/01/2025

POLITICAL GAME: Haszczyński: Not Poland but France and Great Britain have the greatest merit in realizing the security slogan; Chwedoruk: The main threat to Trzaskowski's victory is not Nawrocki at all, but Tusk

Łukasz Mężyk

— HALF OF POLAND'S PRESIDENCY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION IS BEHIND US. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT POLAND THAT HAS THE GREATEST MERIT IN REALIZING ITS SLOGAN “SECURITY, EUROPE!” BUT FRANCE AND GREAT BRITAIN – JERZY HASZCZYŃSKI IN RZ: “On the occasion of the halfway point of Poland's presidency under the slogan ‘Security, Europe!’ the minister appeared in Google again. Because he gave a press conference on Monday. He announced success”.
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42044251-jerzy-haszczynski-kto-realizuje-cele-polskiej-prezydencji-w-ue-ministra-szlapke-poznaly-miliony
— WHAT WILL REMAIN AFTER THE THOUSANDTH ANNIVERSARY OF BOLESŁAW CHROBRY'S CORONATION? ANOTHER MISSED OPPORTUNITY. AND THE POLITICS OF LUKEWARM WATER. WHY CELEBRATE WHEN POLAND HAS THE PRESIDENCY OF THE EU? AS IF ONE EXCLUDED THE OTHER – ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “It is easy to imagine that during these days, Poland could have hosted international celebrations, similar to the opening of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris after its renovation from fire. The ceremony on December 7, 2024, was attended by, among others, Donald Trump, Andrzej Duda, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. ‘This is France,’ echoed the statement by French President Emmanuel Macron”.
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42041021-estera-flieger-tusk-nie-widzi-potrzeby-swietowania-tysiecznej-rocznicy-koronacji-boleslawa-chrobrego

— POLAND CANNOT AFFORD TO BE OFFENDED by the USA, nor to trust it thoughtlessly – for its own security, it needs both America and a strong Europe. Regarding Donald Trump, ideological issues should give way to pragmatism – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ.

— LET'S TAKE AN EXAMPLE FROM THE PRESIDENT OF FINLAND, ALEX STUBB – SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “Let’s take an example from the President of Finland, Alex Stubb, a representative of the Western European mainstream, through and through, who is ideologically distant from Trump, yet he recently visited the American leader at his private residence in Mar-a-Lago, played golf with him, and discussed the security situation for many hours. Afterwards, he called Volodymyr Zelenskyy to tell him about the conclusions drawn from these conversations for Ukraine”.
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42042011-michal-szuldrzynski-putin-trump-i-house-of-cards-dlaczego-polski-nie-stac-na-strategiczna-slepote

— SAWICKI: IF THE LEFT WANTS TO RUIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS FOR THE RULING CAMP, IT IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/04/01

— NO ONE RECOGNIZED BIEJAT DURING A WALK IN POZNAŃ – TOMASZ CYLKA IN GW: “The walk across the Teatralny Bridge and Fredry Street was practically fruitless. People either didn’t recognize Biejat in a dark coat, or they curtly replied: – No, thank you.” (…) The pedestrian crossing near the Opera House has its own rules. Pedestrians wait here for a long time for a green light. But even in this place, free time could not be utilized. Residents of Poznań were not interested even in a brief conversation with the senator. Only near the church on Fredry Street did a girl run up to Biejat, shaking her hand with a smile”.
https://poznan.wyborcza.pl/poznan/7,36001,31817950,poszlismy-na-spacer-z-magdalena-biejat-w-poznaniu-przechodnie.html

— IT IS UNKNOWN HOW, ACCORDING TO THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY, THE COMPLETELY UNKNOWN NAWROCKI WAS SUPPOSED TO REACH THE YOUNG VOTERS OF CONFEDERATION – PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN CONVERSATION WITH JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “The Law and Justice party put forward a candidate who was less recognizable at the start than the Confederation's candidate – which is hard not to consider strange. It is unknown how, according to the Law and Justice party, this completely unknown Nawrocki was supposed to reach young Confederation voters who are not particularly interested in politics. Perhaps the importance of historical policy was overestimated – as it is the only thing the head of the Institute of National Remembrance is associated with and which could allow him to establish contact, especially with the national-conservative part of Confederation”.

— IT IS NOT IMPORTANT WHETHER MENTZEN OUTPACES NAWROCKI. A MONTH OR TWO OF CAMPAIGN FULL OF UNCERTAINTY, WHETHER THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN, IS ENOUGH TO SHAKE THE PARTY – CHWEDORUK CONTINUES WITH MAJMUREK: “I will say paradoxically: it is not important whether Mentzen outpaces Nawrocki. A month or two of a campaign full of uncertainty, whether this will not happen, is enough to shake the party and strengthen centrifugal tendencies within the Law and Justice party. Especially since the situation on the right is greatly dynamized by the new international conjuncture created by Trump's victory”.

— TRZASKOWSKI MUST BE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM TUSK – LESS DISTINCTIVE, LESS POLARIZING – SAYS CHWEDORUK TO MAJMUREK: “Trzaskowski must be completely different from Tusk in 2005 – less distinctive, less polarizing. He must behave appropriately to the gravity of the times, be careful about what he says, so as not to fuel speculation that could threaten his campaign. Today, this concerns primarily international issues”.

— THE MAIN THREAT TO TRZASKOWSKI'S VICTORY IS NOT NAWROCKI AT ALL, BUT TUSK – CHWEDORUK FURTHER WITH MAJMUREK: “For now, he is pursuing his goals. It is also evident that the main threat to Trzaskowski's victory is not Karol Nawrocki at all, but Donald Tusk. It is the government's potential mistakes that could most harm the Mayor of Warsaw”.
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/kaczynski-dal-po-i-konfederacji-prezent-na-tacy-trudno-to-zrozumiec/27t3961

— ON A STAGE REDUCED TO A TRIANGLE OF CIVIC COALITION-LAW AND JUSTICE-CONFEDERATION, TUSK'S FORMATION WILL ALWAYS BE ON THE DEFENSIVE – THIS IS A SCENARIO OF PROBABLY INEVITABLE CATASTROPHE IN TWO YEARS – RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “If Tusk were to look after his party, he would probably first and foremost give security guarantees to the Polish People's Party. It is traditionally easiest for Civic Platform to reach agreements with the Peasants, and they also have the advantage of being able to negotiate with the right. Nevertheless, given the generally strained relations, there are also those within Civic Coalition who are pleased with the troubles of the ‘side dishes’. Although it is better not to indulge in such schadenfreude, as their ultimate elimination in fact opens up the worst possible scenario. On a stage reduced to a triangle of Civic Coalition-Law and Justice-Confederation, Tusk's formation will always be on the defensive, especially when it has to directly bear the costs of governing in difficult times. This is a scenario of probably inevitable catastrophe in two years”.
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2294231,1,spieszmy-sie-doceniac-przystawki-tak-szybko-zanikaja-trzecia-droga-i-lewica-na-rowni-pochylej.read

— TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN STAFF ARE SURPRISED – AGATA KONDZIŃSKA AND IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “From what we hear, Tusk did not consult his idea widely. Not only were the candidate's campaign staff surprised, but also the people responsible for campaign finances. (…) However, Jarosław Kaczyński's party is grateful to Tusk for promoting the millennial event of the Kingdom of Poland with his initiative. – We hope that Tusk's activity will mobilize those who have not yet considered the march on April 12 – says one of the Law and Justice politicians”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31818220,tusk-zaskoczyl-zaproszeniem-na-marsz-sztabowcow-trzaskowskiego.html

— THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY WILL RECEIVE A GIFT A WEEK BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. IN ZABRZE, CIVIC COALITION MAY LOSE POWER – PRZEMYSŁAW JEDLECKI IN GW: “The referendum will take place on May 11, a week before the presidential elections. – The Law and Justice party could not have received a better gift. If the mayor is recalled, the Law and Justice party will be able to say: Now try to vote for the Civic Coalition candidate in the presidential elections – comments Prof. Małgorzata Myśliwiec”.
https://gliwice.wyborcza.pl/gliwice/7,95519,31815953,pis-dostanie-na-tydzien-przed-wyborami-prezydenckimi-prezent.html

— PARLIAMENT AND GOVERNMENT HAVE ADOPTED LEGAL REGULATIONS THAT HAVE SUSPENDED THE RIGHT OF REFUGEES TO SEEK ASYLUM IN OUR COUNTRY AT THE POLISH-BELARUSIAN BORDER. THIS IS A CLEAR VIOLATION OF THE CONSTITUTION AND TREATY OBLIGATIONS – JUDGE WŁODZIMIERZ WRÓBEL IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “In this context, a red light should flash for all of us – if basic humanitarian rights can be so easily suspended by a government decision, by frequently citing ‘hybrid war,’ ‘extraordinary situation,’ or ‘defense of security,’ then identical rhetoric can be used to suspend other rights and freedoms guaranteed by the constitution and treaties”.
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/zawieszenie-prawa-do-azylu-w-polsce-opinia-prawnika


Łukasz Mężyk