state of play: 03/26/2025

POLITICAL GAME: Baczyński: Weakening of KO's auxiliary forces makes the 'Konfapisu' scenario highly probable; Kolanko: Mentzen and Stanowski forge an alliance for 2027; Sadura: The future looks bleak.

Łukasz Mężyk

— 12th anniversary of Krzysztof Kozłowski's death.

— I OBSERVED CLOSELY HOW MAZOWIECKI'S RESOLUTENESS AND UNWAVERING STANCE, COMBINED WITH GEREMEK'S SKILLED NEGOTIATIONS, CONTRIBUTED TO THE SUCCESS OF THE GDANSK TALKS IN 1980 – ANDRZEJ WIELOWIEYSKI IN RZ: “When a breakthrough was finally achieved in 1980, Bronisław Geremek's role was incredibly significant. Together with Tadeusz Mazowiecki, they formed the pillar of the Solidarity experts group, in which I was also involved. I observed closely how Mazowiecki's resoluteness and unwavering stance, along with Geremek's skilled negotiations, contributed to the success of the Gdańsk talks in 1980. Later, when martial law was imposed, Geremek, even while imprisoned in Białołęka, did not lose his fighting spirit. I recently transferred his letters addressed to me, smuggled from prison in 1982, to the State Archive of Modern Records. Even then, he wrote about the need to resume further discussions with the government side and the necessity of involving representatives of the Catholic Church in future dialogue. After Geremek's release from prison, we resumed discussions on possible actions.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art42006681-andrzej-wielowieyski-z-bronislawem-geremkiem-tworzylismy-podstawy-nowej-panstwowosci

— DONALD TRUMP IS MORE POPULAR TODAY THAN IN NOVEMBER WHEN HE WON THE ELECTION: https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1904576736169508974

— THE INDICATOR OF SATISFACTION WITH THE DIRECTION AMERICA IS TAKING IS THE HIGHEST SINCE 2007: https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1904572799618081207

— CBOS: Although votes in support of Poland accepting Ukrainian war refugees still slightly prevail (50%), the PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE OPPOSING IT HAS CLEARLY INCREASED AND HAS NEVER BEEN SO HIGH (43%).

CBOS: 60% BELIEVE THE EU IS UNABLE TO SUPPORT UKRAINE ON ITS OWN WITHOUT THE USA:
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=6982

— “THEY SHOULD CONFRONT TUSK ON THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES, NOT TRZASKOWSKI.” MASTALEREK ON NAWROCKI'S CAMPAIGN – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/03/26/

— TRZASKOWSKI MAY HAVE REASONS FOR OPTIMISM, AS HIS RESULT IN THE IBRIS TRUST SURVEY FOR ONET HAS IMPROVED FURTHER COMPARED TO FEBRUARY – WRITES ONET: “Rafał Trzaskowski remains the leader of the trust ranking. The KO presidential candidate may have reasons for optimism, as his result has improved further compared to February. Currently, 46% of respondents trust him. A month ago, the result was 43.5%.”

— MORAWIECKI HAS SURPASSED DUDĘ IN IBRIS TRUST FOR ONET: “However, changes have occurred behind him. Andrzej Duda has lost his second position. He was overtaken by Mateusz Morawiecki, who is currently trusted by 36.1% of respondents. Interestingly, although the former prime minister has moved up in the ranking, slightly more people trusted him in February, at 36.7%.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/komu-najbardziej-ufaja-polacy-przetasowania-na-podium-sondaz/6qkfnhq,79cfc278

— “I WANT EVERY WOMAN TO FEEL SHE HAS THE RIGHT TO CHOICE AND SUPPORT – REGARDLESS OF THE SITUATION SHE FINDS HERSELF IN” – SAYS MAŁGORZATA TRZASKOWSKA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH DOMINIKA OLSZYNA AND EWA RACZYŃSKA ON ONET: “I want every woman to feel she has the right to choice and support – regardless of the situation she finds herself in. However, this is not only a matter of rights, but also of access to reliable education, healthcare, and real opportunities for self-development. I am aware that words alone are not enough – which is why I want to act, to cooperate with organizations, experts, and people who have been fighting for change for years. I am convinced that as a society, we can and should do more to create a space where every woman feels safe and respected.”

— “THIS CAMPAIGN IS MUCH LONGER AND MORE DEMANDING, BUT NOW I KNOW WHAT I WANT, WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO DO, AND WHERE TO DRAW THE LINE” – TRZASKOWSKA FURTHER IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ONET
: “I am more mature and approach what is happening with greater awareness. Five years have passed, and during that time I have gained a lot of additional experience. This campaign is much longer and more demanding, but now I know what I want, what I would like to do, and where to draw the line – both towards the campaign itself and my role in it. I feel that my voice is important and that there is still much to be done.”

— “IF THIS LOSS HAD HAPPENED NOW, I WOULD NOT DECIDE TO GET PREGNANT AGAIN, BECAUSE WITH THE CURRENT LAW, I WOULD BE AFRAID FOR MY HEALTH AND LIFE” – TRZASKOWSKA FURTHER IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ONET: “I will repeat it constantly. Every woman has the right to choose, and this stems from my personal experiences as well. After the birth of my first child, we started trying for another. Before I gave birth to my son, I lost two pregnancies. The second one in my fifth month, when my daughter Ola was only three years old. Doctors were forced to induce premature labor, which was a very traumatic experience for me, not only for me but for our entire family. If this loss had happened now, I would not decide to get pregnant again, because with the current law, I would be afraid for my health and life.”
https://kobieta.onet.pl/wiadomosci/malgorzata-trzaskowska-dzis-wiem-ze-absolutnie-nie-musze-sie-na-wszystko-godzic/emez4zj

— YOUNG “INTERNET” GENERATIONS ARE RELATIVELY FEW IN NUMBER, LOYALTY IS LOW, SO IT IS STILL UNLIKELY THAT MENTZEN WILL REACH THE SECOND ROUND – JERZY BACZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA
: “This would mean that Konfederacja and its leader have a promising future, were it not for the fact that the generational aspect of this party is also its weakness. The young 'internet' generations are relatively few in number, and their loyalty is low. It will be very difficult for Mentzen (although he is trying) to gain the support of older age groups or to win over PiS voters, whom the candidate spoke of rather dismissively, saying they are 'mostly unemployed' who want to live on social benefits and others' taxes. Therefore, it is still unlikely that Mentzen will break through to the second round.”

— THE WEAKENING OF KO'S CURRENT AUXILIARY FORCES, NAMELY TRZECIA DROGA AND LEWICA, GREATLY UPGRADES THE "KONFAPISU" SCENARIO – JERZY BACZYŃSKI FURTHER
: “The weakening of KO's current auxiliary forces, namely Trzecia Droga and Lewica, greatly upgrades the 'Konfapisu' scenario. Jarosław Kaczyński will likely entice Mentzen with the vision of a future governing coalition, persuading him to openly support Nawrocki's candidacy in the final showdown with Trzaskowski.”

— KONFEDERACJA AND MENTZEN ARE BEING RAISED AS JUNIOR PARTNERS FOR PIS, A "RIGHT-WING YOUTH WING," AND IT IS EVIDENT THEY ARE ALREADY EMBRACING THIS ROLE – EVEN MORE SO, THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Looking at the course of the campaign, Konfederacja and Mentzen are being groomed as a junior partner for PiS, a 'right-wing youth wing,' and it's clear they are already stepping into this role. Mentzen himself is too weak and too 'TikTok-centric' to seriously dominate the right, and Kaczyński is no Korwin-Mikke, and he won't be easily outmaneuvered by 'the boy on the scooter' (as he probably sees him). In this scenario, which we hear is being written in PiS today, the young libertarians would then receive the power of the old autocrat in the next parliamentary elections. A political April Fools' joke.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2294205,1,czlowiek-z-netu

— THE FUTURE IS PAINTED RATHER IN BLEAK COLORS – PROF. PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA
: “The future is painted rather in bleak colors. However, it is unlikely that Mentzen will turn out to be the dark horse and win the presidential race. But even reaching the second round in such polarized conditions will make him a 'black swan.' This term, popularized by Taleb, refers to an unexpected event of great magnitude and enormous consequences. A second round for Mentzen would usher in an era of turbo-populism in Poland. An era of Konfederacja as a force dictating terms. As a party without which a majority governing coalition cannot be formed. If he doesn't reach it, it could lead to a repeat of the Kukiz effect. His electorate could propel Nawrocki to the presidency. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.”

— BRAUN'S START, WHO IS LABELED A "CONSPIRACY THEORIST," HAS LEGITIMIZED HIM AS A SERIOUS CANDIDATE – SADURA FURTHER IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Everything seems to be working in Mentzen's favor. Braun's participation, who is labeled a 'conspiracy theorist,' has legitimized him as a serious candidate. Stanowski's laziness and ineffectiveness, which turned out to be an old damp squib rather than dynamite, have made him the leader of the anti-establishment electorate. Trzaskowski and Hołownia's ineffective, but increasingly apparent, overtures to the Konfederacja electorate have led to Mentzen and his party beginning to define what falls within the political mainstream. What could be the outcome of this?”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2294211,1,czarny-kon-czarnym-labedziem

— SŁAWOMIR MENTZEN AND KRZYSZTOF STANOWSKI ARE FORGING AN ALLIANCE FOR 2027 – MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “Krzysztof Stanowski appears at Sławomir Mentzen's rally, and the leader of Konfederacja calls to sign for the candidacy of the head of Kanał Zero. Additionally, Stanowski speaks of Mentzen's strength for 2027. Has the presidential campaign unexpectedly generated a new alliance?”

— BOTH DRAW FROM THE SAME RESOURCE: FROM VOTERS TIRED OF THE DUOPOLY, MOSTLY YOUNG, UNDER 40 – KOLANKO FURTHER IN RZ: “The problem with Mentzen and Stanowski's current campaign is that both draw from the same resource: voters tired of the duopoly, mostly young, under 40, and often even under 30. Someone born in 2005, by the way, doesn't know political life without the aforementioned POPiS duopoly. But this duopoly also translates to the media: older voters are consumers of linear media, especially television. Younger people, on the other hand, cannot imagine life without the internet and often Kanał ZERO.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42005411-slawomir-mentzen-i-krzysztof-stanowski-zawiazuja-sojusz-na-rok-2027

— 15 YEARS AGO, Bronisław Komorowski defeated Radosław Sikorski in the primaries for the Civic Platform's candidate in the upcoming presidential election.

— BIRTHDAYS: Tadeusz Wrona, Barbara Szczepuła.


Łukasz Mężyk